How many wins will the 2021 Red Sox get?

[mvp 78]

This is the annual thread where we all guess how many wins the Sox will have in the regular season. Let's all assume that 162 games will be played for this.

[Maxbialystock]

90--and that's an optimistic number.

[moonslav59]

As of now, before all FAs are signed, I think 86.

[notin]

As of now, before all FAs are signed, I think 86.

 

And 7 of MLBTR's top 50 are still unsigned, all of them pitchers. Six starters and Mark Melancon...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Does anyone think this team as of now is better than the 2019 Red Sox that won 84? If so, please elaborate.

 

I chose 78 wins, which is 6 games below .500... or only three wins away from .500. That's an improvement over last summer when they were 12 games under.

 

The last time the Sox went 78-84, they finished last in 2015.

[mvp 78]

And 7 of MLBTR's top 50 are still unsigned, all of them pitchers. Six starters and Mark Melancon...

 

Do you think the Sox will sign any of those pitchers?

[mvp 78]

Does anyone think this team as of now is better than the 2019 Red Sox that won 84? If so, please elaborate.

 

I chose 78 wins, which is 6 games below .500... or only three wins away from .500. That's an improvement over last summer when they were 12 games under.

 

The last time the Sox went 78-84, they finished last in 2015.

 

I think the 2019 team (which was virtually the same as the 2018 team) vastly underperformed.

[Bellhorn04]

Right now I'm feeling 83-79.

[Bellhorn04]

Does anyone think this team as of now is better than the 2019 Red Sox that won 84? If so, please elaborate.

 

In baseball the word "better" is almost irrelevant sometimes. How's that for an answer?

[moonslav59]

Does anyone think this team as of now is better than the 2019 Red Sox that won 84? If so, please elaborate.

 

I chose 78 wins, which is 6 games below .500... or only three wins away from .500. That's an improvement over last summer when they were 12 games under.

 

The last time the Sox went 78-84, they finished last in 2015.

 

The 2019 team underperformed by a lot. Clearly, they were a better team on paper than 78 wins. They were pretty close to the same team as 2018, and it's harder to "elaborate" on the massive drop in wins between 2018 and 2019 than 2019 and 2021.

 

You also have to look at the strength of other AL teams. The Astros are way worse than the 2017-2020 versions. The Rays look worse on paper, but I never count them out.

 

The CWS have improved. The Twins and Angels should be good. The Guardians and A's may compete, but the rest of the AL is in bad shape- worse shape than the Sox.

 

I'm not going to say projecting 78-82 wins is wrong. I can certainly see that happening, but I think our 2021 team should be much better than the 2020 team which projected to 65 wins.

 

We did end 2020 going 12-9, which included wins vs NYY, ATL and TBR, and 2020 saw 60- 80% of our rotation on the IL at any given moment.

[notin]

Does anyone think this team as of now is better than the 2019 Red Sox that won 84? If so, please elaborate.

 

I chose 78 wins, which is 6 games below .500... or only three wins away from .500. That's an improvement over last summer when they were 12 games under.

 

The last time the Sox went 78-84, they finished last in 2015.

 

The biggest difference between the 2019 team and the 2021 team are the 2019 had Chris sale and David Price. But as this was not exactly vintage Sale (147 IP, 4.40 ERA) nor vintage Price (107 IP, 4.28 ERA), it is not that difficult to imagine those numbers being replicated or exceeded by Richards and Perez. That bullpen also relied heavily on Colten Brewer and Marcus Walden, two pitchers who will have to earn their way back on to the 2021 team. And this could get even more difficult if/when the Sox sign Sawamura.

 

Replacing Mookie with Verdugo is a loss, but replacing Holt with EHern should be a gain. Its not hard to see Devers as being better, despite his brillaint 2019 season.

 

but more important is the AL East competition. Are the Rays (25.1 fWAR) still the best pitching staff in the AL, like they were in 2019? Are the Yankees still a top 10 pitching staff, especially considering the durability of their starters? The Jays' staff should be better, but that does not mean they are good. Those 3 teams account for over 1/3 of the Sox opponents in 2021.

 

That said, any of these teams could still improve substantially if they choose to spend on some of the remaining arms. But then so could Boston...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

'19's rotation was a disappointment, with down years from everyone but ERod -- mainly because of injuries, except to Porcello, who just declined. As unnerving as Sale's season was, he still averaged 13.3 Ks per 9. A big key to the record was the lack of a shutdown closer, like a Kimbrel or Papelbon in their primes.

 

An automatic-type closer is vital to a mediocre team that needs to secure any win it can. The '21 Red Sox don't have one yet.

[notin]

'19's rotation was a disappointment, with down years from everyone but ERod -- mainly because of injuries, except to Porcello, who just declined. As unnerving as Sale's season was, he still averaged 13.3 Ks per 9. A big key to the record was the lack of a shutdown closer, like a Kimbrel or Papelbon in their primes.

 

An automatic-type closer is vital to a mediocre team that needs to secure any win it can. The '21 Red Sox don't have one yet.

 

While the Sox were among the league leaders in blown saves that year, the overwhelming bulk of them came in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. Workman was actually extremely solid in the 9th inning role. Didn't he come close to setting the MLB record for consecutive hitters retired that year?

 

Setup seemed to be a bigger issue than closer...

[mvp 78]

While the Sox were among the league leaders in blown saves that year, the overwhelming bulk of them came in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. Workman was actually extremely solid in the 9th inning role. Didn't he come close to setting the MLB record for consecutive hitters retired that year?

 

Setup seemed to be a bigger issue than closer...

 

And the addition of Ottavino, Andriese, Sawamura will lengthen this bullpen, especially if Houck is in the mix as well.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While the Sox were among the league leaders in blown saves that year, the overwhelming bulk of them came in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings. Workman was actually extremely solid in the 9th inning role. Didn't he come close to setting the MLB record for consecutive hitters retired that year?

 

Setup seemed to be a bigger issue than closer...

 

We know the pen was burnt out early because starters couldn't even make it to 5th. But the blown saves, whenever they came, were a big part preventing '19 from being a 90-win season. As for '20, the bullpen was half the starting rotation, so roles will have to be redefined by AC, beginning next week...

 

If the division and league aren't as strong, wouldn't a perceptive front office -- hot off the celebration of resetting -- seek to capitalize by recruiting needed talent that's been available all winter and debated here? Imagine Theo Epstein in his Boston days looking at the competition and saying, "No one else looks that good, so we don't have to fortify much"...

[notin]

We know the pen was burnt out early because starters couldn't even make it to 5th. But the blown saves, whenever they came, were a big part preventing '19 from being a 90-win season. As for '20, the bullpen was half the starting rotation, so roles will have to be redefined by AC, beginning next week...

 

If the division and league aren't as strong, wouldn't a perceptive front office -- hot off the celebration of resetting -- seek to capitalize by recruiting needed talent that's been available all winter and debated here? Imagine Theo Epstein in his Boston days looking at the competition and saying, "No one else looks that good, so we don't have to fortify much"...

 

That's been my point much of this offseason.

 

I do think they are not done. Obviously any pending move with Sawamura would indicate as much. And they need to resolve an OF issue one way or another.

 

But there is no denying Tampa has taken steps back replacing Blake Snell and Charlie Morton with Chris Archer and Michael Wacha. Toronto has improved their pitching, but by how much? The only real newcomers are Kirby Yates and Steve Matz. And the Orioles insist on using a rotation with John Means and a slew of players most people have never heard of. I think they're recruiting pitchers using the same method the court system uses to find jurors. You get a letter in the mail telling you to report to Camden Yards on a certain day, and then you go out there and pitch.

 

The big problem with the "everyone else is cutting back" logic is it allows teams to also think "Well, i everyone else is cutting costs, I can dial back my own spending and still compete" (which is to goal of every GM - make the best team possible for the least amount of money). Until the Arenado trade, the entire NL Central was operating on this logic...

[mvp 78]

Fangraphs is projecting the Sox to have 87 wins. 50% chance to make WC round. The predict the rotation to be 10th best in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs is projecting the Sox to have 87 wins. 50% chance to make WC round. The predict the rotation to be 10th best in MLB.

 

Our defense sucks, so even with a 10th ranked rotation and a top 5 or 6 offense, we may still struggle to reach 87 wins.

 

That's one reason I want EHern in CF.

[mvp 78]

dWAR since 2019 for available FA CFers:

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. 1.0 dWAR

Jarrod Dyson 1.1

Brett Gardner 0.7

Brian Goodwin -0.7

Billy Hamilton -0.4

Jon Jay -0.8

Jake Marisnick 0.6

Kevin Pillar -0.6

Danny Santana -0.3

[mvp 78]

Our defense sucks, so even with a 10th ranked rotation and a top 5 or 6 offense, we may still struggle to reach 87 wins.

 

That's one reason I want EHern in CF.

 

Problem is that Mr "Alt 130" is under the assumption that he was going to be the starting 2B and would play there more often than anywhere else. Why does he believe that? Is there another move to come in the OF? If not, it makes little sense to plop him at 2B and run with Renfroe/Verdugo/Beni as the starters for 120+ games. Only makes sense if Renfroe figures out how to hit RHP.

[a700hitter]

75-79 and they will need some breaks to get 79.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

75-79 and they will need some breaks to get 79.

 

81 breaks even. Do you think Cora will tell reporters in ST, "We'll win more than we lose" -- like Dick Williams did in '67?

 

We've already got a pair of infield stars like Rico and Boomer. Maybe if Verdugo pulls a Yaz... but who will be Lonnie: Pivetta? Richards? If one guy was ever due to harness his stuff for an entire season, it'd be Eovaldi. To talk pennant, our outfield just needs another 65 career WAR guy like Smith, and another on a Cooperstown pace (barring injury) like Tony C.

[a700hitter]

81 breaks even. Do you think Cora will tell reporters in ST, "We'll win more than we lose" -- like Dick Williams did in '67?

 

We've already got a pair of infield stars like Rico and Boomer. Maybe if Verdugo pulls a Yaz... but who will be Lonnie: Pivetta? Richards? If one guy was ever due to harness his stuff for an entire season, it'd be Eovaldi. To talk pennant, our outfield just needs another 65 career WAR guy like Smith, and another on a Cooperstown pace (barring injury) like Tony C.

That’s not too much to ask.

[moonslav59]

Problem is that Mr "Alt 130" is under the assumption that he was going to be the starting 2B and would play there more often than anywhere else. Why does he believe that? Is there another move to come in the OF? If not, it makes little sense to plop him at 2B and run with Renfroe/Verdugo/Beni as the starters for 120+ games. Only makes sense if Renfroe figures out how to hit RHP.

 

Well, Renfroe vs RHPs (.717 and .733 in 2019) is better than Beni vs LHPs (.691 but .796 in 2019), but the righty split means many more games.

 

The real comp is Renfroe and Beni vs Arroyo (or maybe Chavis). On offense, both blow Arroyo away as a platoon, but vs their worst splits- not so much so, but on the defensive side, we'd improve at 4 positions by playing EHern in CF full time or vs LHPs.

 

Arroyo:

.597 v LHPs (Beni .691)

.678 v RHPs (Renfroe .717)

 

We could also play Chavis v LHPs and Arroyo v RHPs and use EHern FT in CF. Although Chavis hits RHOs better than LHPs, that could just be a fluke due to small ML sample sizes, but Chavis blows Arroyo away in OPS v LHPs:

 

Chavis

.699 v L

.740 v R

 

(This assuming Chavis recovers from his 2020 splits of .650 v R and .611 v L.)

 

This one reason I wanted us to sign a 2Bman over a CF'er or RF'er.

[moonslav59]

dWAR since 2019 for available FA CFers:

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. 1.0 dWAR

Jarrod Dyson 1.1

Brett Gardner 0.7

Brian Goodwin -0.7

Billy Hamilton -0.4

Jon Jay -0.8

Jake Marisnick 0.6

Kevin Pillar -0.6

Danny Santana -0.3

 

Dyson's offense has really tanked sine 2016.

.674 in "17

.539 in '18

.633 in '19

.411 in '20 (just 66 PAs)

 

And, he's 36.

 

I'm sticking with Marisnick, but Pillar would be okay- though more costly and worse on D than EHern.

[Thunder]

I honestly have no idea how I feel about this team yet. My gut says under .500. Prove me wrong.

[mvp 78]

I honestly have no idea how I feel about this team yet. My gut says under .500. Prove me wrong.

 

My gut says just vote in the poll.

[Thunder]

My gut says just vote in the poll.

 

This isn't a Presidential Election. I don't have to vote if I don't like any of the options

[harmony]

The Red Sox will fall just short of the 84 wins posted by the 2019 club that got 6.8 fWAR from Xander Bogaerts, 6.6 from Mookie Betts, 5.9 from Rafael Devers, 3.7 from Eduardo Rodriguez, 3.6 from Chris Sale, 3.5 from Christian Vazquez, 3.2 from J.D. Martinez, 2.4 from David Price, 2.0 from Andrew Benintendi and 1.4 from Jackie Bradley Jr.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

This isn't a Presidential Election. I don't have to vote if I don't like any of the options

 

A large amount of people didn't vote for a president, either.