2021 Prospects

[mvp 78]

I honestly see no reason to protect Ward.

 

He's out until probably at least August, if not beyond. Any team selecting him would have to keep him on the active roster until 1 year after the date when he returns to being an active pitcher again, which puts his "get to keep him" date in late 2023 at the earliest. That seems like a pretty big commitment for a guy with 8 IP above A ball. Certainly there will be other teams with more intriguing and less injured pitching prospects available for the Rule 5 Draft...

 

If the Sox really believe in his skill level, they'd be smart to protect him just in case. However, I agree that another team carrying him on their roster would be a substantial burden. Could it make sense for a team already at the bottom of the standings?

 

Ward is probably the third best player on that list.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox really believe in his skill level, they'd be smart to protect him just in case. However, I agree that another team carrying him on their roster would be a substantial burden. Could it make sense for a team already at the bottom of the standings?

 

Ward is probably the third best player on that list.

 

I do think a risk of being taken factor plays a big role- same as with Jimenez.

 

Also, we will be looking at how good our 40th player is, and how much we care about losing him.

 

If it's Rosario or Potts, we may decide to protect Ward, but depending on how many FAs we will be adding, maybe it's a much better player.

[Hugh2]

It will be interesting to see what they do with Ward, it doesn't help being a pitcher. It's a lot easier to stash an A ball pitcher in the back of a big league pen than it's to stash an A ball hitter on your bench.

 

You can still develop a pitcher in the back of your pen, the hitter riding the bench will either stagnate by sitting or take a step back struggling worse than Downs did in AAA if he plays.

 

I wouldn't worry about someone taking Gilberto.

[moonslav59]

I think we take the risk of not protecting Ward and Jimenez.

 

While I don't see us having any major 40 man roster crunches, this winter, if we want to sign 4-5 free agents, we will be hitting a point where we have to DFA or trade some valuable players.

[mvp 78]

I do think a risk of being taken factor plays a big role- same as with Jimenez.

 

Also, we will be looking at how good our 40th player is, and how much we care about losing him.

 

If it's Rosario or Potts, we may decide to protect Ward, but depending on how many FAs we will be adding, maybe it's a much better player.

 

If Jimenez replicated his OPS from Lowell, he'd be protected. His OPS dropping 100+ points is a reason we are probably safe to ignore him for now.

[moonslav59]

If Jimenez replicated his OPS from Lowell, he'd be protected. His OPS dropping 100+ points is a reason we are probably safe to ignore him for now.

 

Even if we lose one of these guys, we may end up getting them back.

 

It might also mean we end up keeping a guy like Rosario or Winckowski who go on to do better.

[Hugh2]

I think we take the risk of not protecting Ward and Jimenez.

 

While I don't see us having any major 40 man roster crunches, this winter, if we want to sign 4-5 free agents, we will be hitting a point where we have to DFA or trade some valuable players.

 

A team 2 games shy of a world series is going to tweak their roster, they're going to sign free agents so there will be a roster crunch.

[Hugh2]

If Jimenez replicated his OPS from Lowell, he'd be protected. His OPS dropping 100+ points is a reason we are probably safe to ignore him for now.

 

How is he going to stay on a big-league club for a whole year? he'd be making the jump from low A. An .873 OPS in Low A is nice, but that doesn't scream promote him past 3 levels to the big leagues and plug him in the lineup. That would be pretty unprecedented.

[moonslav59]

A team 2 games shy of a world series is going to tweak their roster, they're going to sign free agents so there will be a roster crunch.

 

Not a big roster crunch. Not like other teams with deeper 40 men rosters and lots of Rule 5's.

 

If we sign 4 free agents, we only have to DFA Rosario and Potts. If we sign 5, maybe Ronaldo Hernandez or Plawecki.

 

You call that a crunch?

 

There is also Davis, Arauz, and a couple other players I won't cry about being DFA'd or traded for scraps.

[moonslav59]

How is he going to stay on a big-league club for a whole year? he'd be making the jump from low A. An .873 OPS in Low A is nice, but that doesn't scream promote him past 3 levels to the big leagues and plug him in the lineup. That would be pretty unprecedented.

 

He's saying "if he had...," but he didn't, so he won't be protected.

[Hugh2]

He's saying "if he had...," but he didn't, so he won't be protected.

 

If he had a .900 OPS in low A last year he would still not be protected. Heck if he had a 1.000 OPS he wouldn't be. He was 20, in low A, extremely raw, and a position player. Position players are not pitchers, they need to play and face pitchers to develop and no team is going to burn a roster spot on a guy who is lightyears away from the big leagues.

[Hugh2]

Not a big roster crunch. Not like other teams with deeper 40 men rosters and lots of Rule 5's.

 

If we sign 4 free agents, we only have to DFA Rosario and Potts. If we sign 5, maybe Ronaldo Hernandez or Plawecki.

 

You call that a crunch?

 

There is also Davis, Arauz, and a couple other players I won't cry about being DFA'd or traded for scraps.

 

I call any situation where you have to DFA talent that might help you MLB ball club one day a crunch.

[moonslav59]

I call any situation where you have to DFA talent that might help you MLB ball club one day a crunch.

 

I've said things like "not much of a crunch." I'm thinking guys like Rosario and Potts are out there for the taking on minor league deals.

 

Sure, they "might help" but at no better chance than who we replace them with, so our 40 man gets better by replacing them. That's the point, and that is hardly a meaningful "crunch."

 

To me, a meaningful crunch might be needing to DFA Bazardo or Davis, and even those two are not much better than what's out there in the minor league FA market or players that will be shed by other teams when they hit their crunch.

[moonslav59]

If he had a .900 OPS in low A last year he would still not be protected. Heck if he had a 1.000 OPS he wouldn't be. He was 20, in low A, extremely raw, and a position player. Position players are not pitchers, they need to play and face pitchers to develop and no team is going to burn a roster spot on a guy who is lightyears away from the big leagues.

 

He's saying he would not protect him, and maybe he would have been had he hit well, this season.

 

I get your point about this season, but it would have been a closer call, had he done well.

 

There are teams out there in total rebuild mode, who can stash a player they will never play as their 26th man, if they really think he will be a good one.

 

Jimenez has not indicated he is that type of player.

[Hugh2]

He's saying he would not protect him, and maybe he would have been had he hit well, this season.

 

I get your point about this season, but it would have been a closer call, had he done well.

 

There are teams out there in total rebuild mode, who can stash a player they will never play as their 26th man, if they really think he will be a good one.

 

Jimenez has not indicated he is that type of player.

 

If Jimenez was that type of player he’d be higher up in the organization.

 

I think it would be interesting to see how many low players have been plucked in rule5. I’m sure there’s some pitchers

[moonslav59]

If Jimenez was that type of player he’d be higher up in the organization.

 

I think it would be interesting to see how many low players have been plucked in rule5. I’m sure there’s some pitchers

 

Probably not many non-pitchers, but the 26 man roster is rather new, so maybe that may change.

[mvp 78]

How is he going to stay on a big-league club for a whole year? he'd be making the jump from low A. An .873 OPS in Low A is nice, but that doesn't scream promote him past 3 levels to the big leagues and plug him in the lineup. That would be pretty unprecedented.

 

It's called being thrown on the bench. It happens a lot with these rule V guys.

[mvp 78]

If he had a .900 OPS in low A last year he would still not be protected. Heck if he had a 1.000 OPS he wouldn't be. He was 20, in low A, extremely raw, and a position player. Position players are not pitchers, they need to play and face pitchers to develop and no team is going to burn a roster spot on a guy who is lightyears away from the big leagues.

 

There are MLB teams that are lightyears away from being competitive.

[notin]

It's called being thrown on the bench. It happens a lot with these rule V guys.

 

A lot of these guys missed all of 2020. Not so sure many teams will be willing to take that type of risk and have a player effectively sit out 2 years of a 3 year stretch. That puts their future in even greater question, all while bringing them a year closer to arbitration and free agency.

 

Players will certainly be taken via Rule 5 draft. But I doubt many A ball types get the chance unless the selecting team has faith that they can play immediately in needed. For some low budget teams like Pitt and KC that do not plan on being competitive anyway, maybe. But even then they are more likely to be able to find better options than Jimenez on one of the other 28 teams out there...

[notin]

There are MLB teams that are lightyears away from being competitive.

 

And there will be an abundance of unprotected minor leaguers viewed as more intriguing than Jimenez...

[notin]

And there will be an abundance of unprotected minor leaguers viewed as more intriguing than Jimenez...

 

Although worth pointing out, a team could select Jimenez and then make a trade (or agree on a cash settlement) in order to keep him and play him every day in the minors...

[moonslav59]

It's called being thrown on the bench. It happens a lot with these rule V guys.

 

Yes.

 

Some were not sure Whitlock would pitch anything more than mop-up duty, when we selected him.

 

That quickly changed, but it might not have.

[moonslav59]

A lot of these guys missed all of 2020. Not so sure many teams will be willing to take that type of risk and have a player effectively sit out 2 years of a 3 year stretch. That puts their future in even greater question, all while bringing them a year closer to arbitration and free agency.

 

Players will certainly be taken via Rule 5 draft. But I doubt many A ball types get the chance unless the selecting team has faith that they can play immediately in needed. For some low budget teams like Pitt and KC that do not plan on being competitive anyway, maybe. But even then they are more likely to be able to find better options than Jimenez on one of the other 28 teams out there...

 

I doubt they will, too, but that 26th man slot could create a situation where someone grabs a single-A guy. (That guy will NOT be Jimenez, if anyone is taken.)

[notin]

I doubt they will, too, but that 26th man slot could create a situation where someone grabs a single-A guy. (That guy will NOT be Jimenez, if anyone is taken.)

 

Everyone hopes to find the next Juan Soto in A ball.

 

Maybe one of these A ball guys can actually make the leap, but I wouldn't base the 40 man roster on it. If the Sox do protect him, his option years start counting, which can create an even worse situation down the road when they expire and he has to either play in MLB or become a free agent.

 

No way he gets protected, and if he actually gets taken, the Sox and the selecting team might be better off just working out a fair trade for a high risk/high reward prospect...

[Hugh2]

It's called being thrown on the bench. It happens a lot with these rule V guys.

 

Yes, and usually with guys that are in the high minors, and when they're a little lower they're pitchers.

 

If you're a pitcher you can be stashed in the back of the bullpen and still develop your pitches during bullpen sessions. A hitter needs to face live pitching in live games and a progressively increasing difficulty to develop. You will never get that sitting on the bench, and if you're jumping from Low-A to the majors you're likely going to get screwed up. Teams just don't do that with guys.

[Hugh2]

I doubt they will, too, but that 26th man slot could create a situation where someone grabs a single-A guy. (That guy will NOT be Jimenez, if anyone is taken.)

 

I doubt that happens with position players, pitchers I can see.

[Hugh2]

Everyone hopes to find the next Juan Soto in A ball.

 

Maybe one of these A ball guys can actually make the leap, but I wouldn't base the 40 man roster on it. If the Sox do protect him, his option years start counting, which can create an even worse situation down the road when they expire and he has to either play in MLB or become a free agent.

 

No way he gets protected, and if he actually gets taken, the Sox and the selecting team might be better off just working out a fair trade for a high risk/high reward prospect...

 

Or the Sox can make 50K when the player is returned to them.

[moonslav59]

Everyone hopes to find the next Juan Soto in A ball.

 

Maybe one of these A ball guys can actually make the leap, but I wouldn't base the 40 man roster on it. If the Sox do protect him, his option years start counting, which can create an even worse situation down the road when they expire and he has to either play in MLB or become a free agent.

 

No way he gets protected, and if he actually gets taken, the Sox and the selecting team might be better off just working out a fair trade for a high risk/high reward prospect...

 

How many blue chippers (or even purple), who are eligible for Rule 5, are still in single A?

 

(Can you name any from the past that were there for the taking but were not?)

Edited October 29, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How many blue chippers (or even purple), who are eligible for Rule 5, are still in single A?

 

(Can you name any from the past that were there for the taking but were not?)

 

The most famous who was drafted in something akin to Rule 5 was named Clemente. Brooklyn didn't want to carry the 19-year-old on its roster in 1954, so the Dodgers tried to hide Roberto in Triple A. The tale goes that his club, Montreal, was ordered not to play him so no other franchises would notice his potential. But last-place Pittsburgh couldn't wait to draft Clemente, since their GM once worked for Brooklyn and was somewhat familiar with the prospect. His name was Branch Rickey...

 

Btw: Roberto Clemente wasn't an instant star in the NL, and took about five years in the majors to develop his talents. He didn't break out until age 25, but was an All-Star and named on MVP ballots in 12 of his last 13 seasons.

 

Can the Red Sox wait two more years for Arauz to put it all together?

[Hugh2]

The most famous who was drafted in something akin to Rule 5 was named Clemente. Brooklyn didn't want to carry the 19-year-old on its roster in 1954, so the Dodgers tried to hide Roberto in Triple A. The tale goes that his club, Montreal, was ordered not to play him so no other franchises would notice his potential. But last-place Pittsburgh couldn't wait to draft Clemente, since their GM once worked for Brooklyn and was somewhat familiar with the prospect. His name was Branch Rickey...

 

Btw: Roberto Clemente wasn't an instant star in the NL, and took about five years in the majors to develop his talents. He didn't break out until age 25, but was an All-Star and named on MVP ballots in 12 of his last 13 seasons.

 

Can the Red Sox wait two more years for Arauz to put it all together?

 

I'm too lazy, but I'm certain the rules had be different for the rule 5 draft back then. That or Clemente was drafted when he was 14 lol.