2021 Prospects

[moonslav59]

The free agency class is pretty weak -- if you want to add a top starter, you will need to do it through a trade and thus the Red Sox would need to trade some top prospects. I'm not sure if Bloom has an appetite for that.

 

 

 

I saw his comments and thought they were quite "suspicious." He hasn't performed well in his last two starts.

 

There are lots of good "top starters." Most are old or very old, but that would play into our no long term deal guidelines.

[moonslav59]

On the farm, today...

 

Worcester wins 5-2

Ockimey 2-4 with HR

Duran 1-4 with HR & 3 rbi

Pen Game: Walden & Hall let up 1 run each, Brice, Ort & Simpson let up 0 ER (Ort 2 IP, 0BB, 3K)

They are 28-14 (4th best record in AAA- East- 20 teams)

 

Portland loses 7-2

Rosario 2 for 4

Casas 1-3 w 2B

R Hernandez 1-4 w HR

Politi got shelled/German did good (3IP, 1 ER, 0BB,4K)

Portland is 24-17 (6th best out of 12 teams)

 

Greenville wins 9-8

Groome 5.2 5H, 3 ER, 4BB, 8K

Sogard 4-5 w 2B & BB

Cannon 3-6 w 2 2B

Howlett 1-5 w HR & BB, 3 rbi

Reed & Dearden 2 hits each

Greenville is 23-19 (5th best out of 12)

 

Salem wins 3-2

Wu-Yelland 4IP, 0H, 0BB, 4K

Yorke 2-5 w HR & 2B

Groshans & Rafaela 2 hits each

Salem is 23-19 (7th out of 12)

[moonslav59]

1.198 Cordero AAA

1.043 Mieses AA/AAA

1.025 Granberg A+/AA

1.006 Duran AAA

.954 Groshans A-

.948 Dearden A+

.939 T Reed A+

.936 Howlett A+

.906 Davis A-

.901 Meneses AA

.898 Matheny AA/AAA

.850 Lopez AA/AAA

.837 Casas AA

.830 Cottam A+

.804 Sogard A+

.800 Castellanos AA

Notables:

.784 Chris Herrmann © AAA

.765 Ockimey AAA

.723 Chavis AAA

.714 Downs AAA

.712 Jimenez A-

.696 Munoz AAA

.681 Yorke A-

.658 Rosario AA

.657 R Hernandez © AA

.649 Arauz AAA

.583 Lugo A-

.433 Wong AAA

.335 Potts AA

 

ERA (20 IP) Notables OPS Against

0.45 Ort AAA 0.502

2.03 Aldo Ramirez A- 0.581

2.20 Brayan Bello A+/AA 0.590

3.06 S Gonsalves AAA 0.647

3.10 Winckowski AA 0.602

3.46 Chris Murphy A+ 0.721

3.49 D Reyes AA 0.705

3.54 M Walden AAA 0.785

3.58 Wu-Yelland A- 0.505

3.60 R Espinal AAA 0.616

4.30 S Drohan A- 0.700

5.66 J Groome A+ 0.770

5.66 F German AA 0.822

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Surprised to see that Mieses' OPS at AAA is now at 960. I was expecting his OBP to drop after the promotion, but that hasn't been the case.

 

I don't think he's got a high upside, but maybe he does have a chance to contribute as a bench bat.

[mvp 78]

Yorke 2-5 w HR & 2B

 

 

Yorke's first ding dong. (982 OPS in June after starting slow this season)

 

Also, Duran's HR was a walk off.

Edited June 21, 2021 by mvp 78

[notin]

Surprised to see that Mieses' OPS at AAA is now at 960. I was expecting his OBP to drop after the promotion, but that hasn't been the case.

 

I don't think he's got a high upside, but maybe he does have a chance to contribute as a bench bat.

 

Another Polar Product?

 

Home: .333/.420/.850/1.270

Road: .246/.324/.508/.832

 

.832 is certainly not a bad road OPS, but so far he looks like too many other Worcester guys who are stat-padding at home...

[Bellhorn04]

Another Polar Product?

 

Home: .333/.420/.850/1.270

Road: .246/.324/.508/.832

 

.832 is certainly not a bad road OPS, but so far he looks like too many other Worcester guys who are stat-padding at home...

 

"Which begs the question" why did they make Worcester such an offense-inflating park?

[notin]

"Which begs the question" why did they make Worcester such an offense-inflating park?

 

I am not sure that was the intention...

[mvp 78]

Another Polar Product?

 

Home: .333/.420/.850/1.270

Road: .246/.324/.508/.832

 

.832 is certainly not a bad road OPS, but so far he looks like too many other Worcester guys who are stat-padding at home...

 

He has 2 road HR's (5 games) and 1 home HR (6 games). He has 6 hits on the road and 6 a home. He has 13 TB on the road and 11 at home. The only difference is that he has more walks at home than on the road. It's hard to say that is due to WOO. He had a much worse home/away split in POR.

[mvp 78]

Another Polar Product?

 

Home: .333/.420/.850/1.270

Road: .246/.324/.508/.832

 

.832 is certainly not a bad road OPS, but so far he looks like too many other Worcester guys who are stat-padding at home...

 

Where'd you pull this from?

 

When I calculated his home/road by hand, his SLG is BETTER on the road than at home?

 

I get a 650 road slugging vs 524 home slugging.

[moonslav59]

"Which begs the question" why did they make Worcester such an offense-inflating park?

 

Fans

[mvp 78]

Fans

 

It's interesting because when you look at McCoy, it's basically N/S facing when standing at home. This causes the jet stream to really go left to right.

 

At PP, you are facing N/E when standing at home. This causes the jet stream to really go push straight out to CF. I think it was only designed this way to squeeze the ballpark in next to the train tracks. If it was N/S facing, there wouldn't be enough room in LF for stands. The OF wall would basically be next to the train tracks.

[moonslav59]

It's interesting because when you look at McCoy, it's basically N/S facing when standing at home. This causes the jet stream to really go left to right.

 

At PP, you are facing N/E when standing at home. This causes the jet stream to really go push straight out to CF. I think it was only designed this way to squeeze the ballpark in next to the train tracks. If it was N/S facing, there wouldn't be enough room in LF for stands. The OF wall would basically be next to the train tracks.

 

That is very likely the reason.

[mvp 78]

Another Polar Product?

 

Home: .333/.420/.850/1.270

Road: .246/.324/.508/.832

 

.832 is certainly not a bad road OPS, but so far he looks like too many other Worcester guys who are stat-padding at home...

 

Again, SoxProspects has it as:

 

998 OPS Away

924 OPS Home

 

???????????????????

[mvp 78]

I wanted to see who was benefitting from the WOO Home/Road split the most.

 

Josh Ockimey +679 OPS Home vs Road

Michael Gettys +433 OPS Home vs Road

Jeter Downs +357 OPS Home vs Road

Jarren Duran +280 OPS Home vs Road

 

Who has been better away from Polar Park?

 

Michael Chavis -360 OPS Home vs Road

 

As a team, WOO has a 922/609 Home/Road OPS split. 25 HR's vs 13 HR's. 223 TB's vs 137 TB's. 28 2b's vs 13 2b's.

[moonslav59]

Again, SoxProspects has it as:

 

998 OPS Away

924 OPS Home

 

???????????????????

 

Minoeaguebaseball.com shows very different numbers.

[mvp 78]

Minoeaguebaseball.com shows very different numbers.

 

SoxProspects seems to match the MiLB game log. IDK.

[mvp 78]

SoxProspects seems to match the MiLB game log. IDK.

 

MiLB matches what I wrote too.

[notin]

Again, SoxProspects has it as:

 

998 OPS Away

924 OPS Home

 

???????????????????

 

I used Baseball Reference.

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=mieses000joh&type=bgl&year=2021

 

 

And I see the issue. It counted his Portland games…

Edited June 21, 2021 by notin

[mvp 78]

Cameron Cannon has a 13 game hitting streak. Over that stretch, he's gone 20 for 60 with a 755 OPS. His OPS is low because he only has 15 1B and 5 2B, not HR's or 3B. Also, only 1 BB.

[harmony]

Jake Fraley, the speedy lefthand-hitting outfielder for the Seattle Mariners, remains a decent comp for Jarren Duran, who is 16 months younger than Fraley.

 

Fraley has posted 0.9 fWAR in 25 games this year. Do the math.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jake-fraley/19260/stats?position=OF

 

Fraley and Duran were drafted out of prominent college programs and have posted these minor league numbers:

 

JF 257 G, 1076 PA, .288/.365/.485/.850, 72 SB, 28 CS

JD 229 G, 1025 PA, .317/.377/.471/.848, 76 SB, 25 CS

Edited June 22, 2021 by harmony

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Solid start for Red Sox RHP Josh Winckowski in Portland. Final line: 5IP, 7H (1HR), 3ER, 0BB, 9K. FB was 92-94 T96. Best pitch was SL at 82-86. 7/9 strikeouts were with SL. Showed advanced feel & confidence, throwing it in any count, to both RHH/LHH. Also showed a firm CH 87-91.

 

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1408059641607593991

Edited June 24, 2021 by mvp 78

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

A very positive Duran indicator is he's been able to get his strikeouts under control while still hitting for power.

 

First 10 games:

45 plate appearances

31% strikeout

.333 Isolated Power

 

Next 22 games:

110 plate appearances

20% strikeouts

.347 Isolated Power

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

A very positive Duran indicator is he's been able to get his strikeouts under control while still hitting for power.

 

First 10 games:

45 plate appearances

31% strikeout

.333 Isolated Power

 

Next 22 games:

110 plate appearances

20% strikeouts

.347 Isolated Power

 

Looks like working out a kink in AAA was maybe needed.

 

I hope we see him real soon.

[mvp 78]

Devlin Granberg is having a nice season for a guy outside the top 60 on SoxProspects (for now). He has an overall 1.024 OPS between Greenville and Portland. OPS after being promoted is currently at 864 (higher than Tristan Casas). Not a lot of upside for Devlin, but could be a 4th OFer or bench bat if everything breaks right for him.

[mvp 78]

And not only is Mieses starting to tear it up in AAA. He's now hitting bombs in the Olympic Qualifiers. https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1408442371390545926

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Second baseman Grant Williams had another good day at the plate for Portland. He went 2-for-4 with his sixth double of the season, raising hit batting average to .308. In 131 plate appearances this season, Williams has struck out only seven times.

 

Is that even allowed?

[moonslav59]

On the farm, today.

 

Our old friend Blake Swihart scored 4 runs against us, and Worcester lost 8-4.

Cordero 2-4

Herrmann 2-4, R

de la Guerra 2-3, HR, BB

Duran 0-4, BB

Ort 1 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 ER

 

Portland won 5-1.

Castellanos 2-4, HR

Potts 1-4, HR

 

Greenville lost 9-5

Gambrell got shelled

Reed hit his 9th, Dearden his 8th and Sogard is 6th.

 

Salem won 11-10

Jimenez 2-5

Lugo 2-5

Davis 3-5, 2HR, 2B

All 9 batters got a hit

 

 

[mvp 78]

FCL Red Sox (GCL no longer exists) played their season opener today. Interesting roster.

 

https://www.milb.com/gameday/fcl-red-sox-vs-fcl-braves/2021/06/28/657802#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=657802

 

Brainer Bonaci SS

Nick Decker LF (rehab)

Blaze Jordan 3B

Bryan Gonzalez DH

Darel Belen RF

Eduardo Vaughn CF

Danny Diaz 1B

Antoni Flores 2B

Jonathan Diaz C

[mvp 78]

@SPChrisHatfield

The hits keep coming for Red Sox minor league pitchers: RHP Aldo Ramirez (#SP60 no. 8) has been placed on the injured list with right elbow tendinitis. He joins Houck (now back), Seabold, Ward, and Mata as pitchers in our Top 10 who've gone on IL already this year.