2021 Prospects

[notin]

Rocker and Leiter fill an org need and would be fast tracked to the bigs. Both of them have major league arsenals. I would probably lean towards Leiter due to pedigree. A college kid from a big program who grew up around baseball and has a big league arsenal, he's the surest bet to hit the bigs. The sox need pitching. If the dummies ahead of them leave Rocker or Leiter for the sox, they would be absolutely stupid to pass

 

The Sox need pitching, but the draft is such a crapshoot anyway, just take the best player regardless of position.

 

I have my doubts either Rocket or Leiter last until the 4th pick. But these “MLB-ready” arsenals produce as many Jay Groome/Mark Appel types as they do David Price/Chris Sale types...

[moonslav59]

In an attempt to get an idea of the chances of choosing an actual future star in the draft, I looked up the history of MLB drafts from 2000 to 2015 (I stopped there because players in '16 and beyond are just beginning to make an impact). I counted all pitchers and position players chosen, and noted whether they became at least good starting regulars in the bigs.

 

Pitchers were drafted most often in the Top 10: out of 160 picks, 87 were pitchers... and so far, 14 can arguably be considered aces. Of those 14, only 4 were the first pitchers picked in their year, including Price, Strasburg and Cole at Number 1 overall (Mark Prior, who had one great year before getting hurt, was a Number 2).

 

In comparison, 21 of the 73 position players picked in the Top 10 are considered studs in the majors. My ratings are conservative; for example, in '15 I counted Bregman the lone star over other regulars like Swanson, Benintendi, Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ, Brendan Rogers.

 

The math (if done correctly) reveals these odds: for teams picking a pitcher in the Top 10 -- finding an ace is at 16%. For those clubs picking a position player, the odds of choosing a great regular is 29%...

 

Overall, the odds of drafting a future ace pitcher in 16 years of Top 10 picks is 8%, while the odds of drafting a great regular is 18%.

 

Nice research.

 

Makes you want to go regular player, or at least "best available," but finding an ace is worth more than finding a stud regular player, IMO.

 

I wonder what just the top 4 picks would reveal.

 

One other nice thing about this draft is that we pick 4th in every round.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nice research.

 

Makes you want to go regular player, or at least "best available," but finding an ace is worth more than finding a stud regular player, IMO.

 

I wonder what just the top 4 picks would reveal.

 

One other nice thing about this draft is that we pick 4th in every round.

 

Here are the "aces" drafted and where they were picked in the Top 10 the 16 years from 2000 to 2016: #1s -- Price, Strasburg, Cole; 2 -- Prior, Verlander; 3 -- Bauer; 6 -- Grienke, Andrew Miller (became an ace reliever for a few years); 7 -- Kershaw, Harvey, Fried, Nola; 10 -- Lincecum, Bumgarner.

 

A lot of other pitchers who flopped were drafted ahead of those guys. Best class had to be 2006, when Miller, Kershaw and Lincecum went 6, 7 and 10... and Scherzer was 11. Just to show how unpredictable this all is, these four pitchers were chosen 1, 2, 4 and 5: Luke Hochevar KC, Greg Reynolds Col, Brad Lincoln Pitt, and Brandon Morrow Seattle (Tampa took Longoria at 3).

[moonslav59]

Here are the "aces" drafted and where they were picked in the Top 10 the 16 years from 2000 to 2016: #1s -- Price, Strasburg, Cole; 2 -- Prior, Verlander; 3 -- Bauer; 6 -- Grienke, Andrew Miller (became an ace reliever for a few years); 7 -- Kershaw, Harvey, Fried, Nola; 10 -- Lincecum, Bumgarner.

 

A lot of other pitchers who flopped were drafted ahead of those guys. Best class had to be 2006, when Miller, Kershaw and Lincecum went 6, 7 and 10... and Scherzer was 11. Just to show how unpredictable this all is, these four pitchers were chosen 1, 2, 4 and 5: Luke Hochevar KC, Greg Reynolds Col, Brad Lincoln Pitt, and Brandon Morrow Seattle (Tampa took Longoria at 3).

 

Thanks for the info.

 

Who would you take with the first pick?

2nd?

3rd?

4th?

 

I'm not against HS picks, but I don't think this is the time to go that route.

 

MLB.com has this...

Kumar Rocker RHP Vandy

Jordan Lawler SS HS

Adrian del Castillo C Miami

Jud Fabian OF Florida

Jaden Hill RHP LSU

Matt McLain SS UCLA

Jack Leiter RHP Vandy

Matcelo Mayer SS HS

 

Prospectslive:

Rocker

Fabian

McClain

Mayer

Leiter

 

Baseballprospectjournal...

Rocker

Lawlar

Fabian

Leiter

McClain

 

mymlbdraft...

Rocker

Leiter

Lawler

McClain

Mayer

 

mvpsportstalk...

Rocker

Del Castillo

Fabian

Leiter

Hill

 

I'm no expert, but I might make this the Sox top drfat list:

 

1. Rocker

2. Fabian

3. Leiter

4. Hill

5. McClain

 

(I dropped all HS players off my top 5 list.)

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks for the info.

 

Who would you take with the first pick?

2nd?

3rd?

4th?

 

I'm not against HS picks, but I don't think this is the time to go that route.

 

MLB.com has this...

Kumar Rocker RHP Vandy

Jordan Lawler SS HS

Adrian del Castillo C Miami

Jud Fabian OF Florida

Jaden Hill RHP LSU

Matt McLain SS UCLA

Jack Leiter RHP Vandy

Matcelo Mayer SS HS

 

Prospectslive:

Rocker

Fabian

McClain

Mayer

Leiter

 

Baseballprospectjournal...

Rocker

Lawlar

Fabian

Leiter

McClain

 

mymlbdraft...

Rocker

Leiter

Lawler

McClain

Mayer

 

mvpsportstalk...

Rocker

Del Castillo

Fabian

Leiter

Hill

 

I'm no expert, but I might make this the Sox top drfat list:

 

1. Rocker

2. Fabian

3. Leiter

4. Hill

5. McClain

 

(I dropped all HS players off my top 5 list.)

 

 

 

These are my top four right now: Rocker is everybody's #1, so there's no way three other clubs pass on him. Leiter has the pedigree, and he just may be available. But I really think this year's college season, if completed, will play a big part in reshuffling the rankings, depending on player performance. Who knows, maybe even a summer league will raise a guy's stock, since the draft isn't until July again.

 

From what I read, the two best position players -- in regards to hit tools and future stardom -- look like Fabian and Del Castillo. I'm leaning towards either one over Leiter, but only after what the imprecise science of drafts reveals in my recent study of Top 10s.

[moonslav59]

These are my top four right now: Rocker is everybody's #1, so there's no way three other clubs pass on him. Leiter has the pedigree, and he just may be available. But I really think this year's college season, if completed, will play a big part in reshuffling the rankings, depending on player performance. Who knows, maybe even a summer league will raise a guy's stock, since the draft isn't until July again.

 

From what I read, the two best position players -- in regards to hit tools and future stardom -- look like Fabian and Del Castillo. I'm leaning towards either one over Leiter, but only after what the imprecise science of drafts reveals in my recent study of Top 10s.

 

So,...

 

1. Rocker

2. Fabian

3. Del Castillo

4. ???

[Bellhorn04]

So,...

 

1. Rocker

2. Fabian

3. Del Castillo

4. ???

 

Cool names.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So,...

 

1. Rocker

2. Fabian

3. Del Castillo

4. ???

 

Leiter. In the MLB, these sons of the fathers that make it are often good bets: Bonds, Griffey, Fielder?, Tatis, Mahomes (wha?)... grandson of Yaz... with the Toronto trio and Witt Jr. on deck. Would anyone gamble a future pick on D'Angelo Oritz?

[moonslav59]

Leiter. In the MLB, these sons of the fathers that make it are often good bets: Bonds, Griffey, Fielder?, Tatis, Mahomes (wha?)... grandson of Yaz... with the Toronto trio and Witt Jr. on deck. Would anyone gamble a future pick on D'Angelo Oritz?

 

Small SSs like McClain don't thrill me, either.

[jacksonianmarch]

in an attempt to get an idea of the chances of choosing an actual future star in the draft, i looked up the history of mlb drafts from 2000 to 2015 (i stopped there because players in '16 and beyond are just beginning to make an impact). I counted all pitchers and position players chosen, and noted whether they became at least good starting regulars in the bigs.

 

Pitchers were drafted most often in the top 10: Out of 160 picks, 87 were pitchers... And so far, 14 can arguably be considered aces. Of those 14, only 4 were the first pitchers picked in their year, including price, strasburg and cole at number 1 overall (mark prior, who had one great year before getting hurt, was a number 2).

 

In comparison, 21 of the 73 position players picked in the top 10 are considered studs in the majors. My ratings are conservative; for example, in '15 i counted bregman the lone star over other regulars like swanson, benintendi, kyle tucker, ian happ, brendan rogers.

 

The math (if done correctly) reveals these odds: For teams picking a pitcher in the top 10 -- finding an ace is at 16%. For those clubs picking a position player, the odds of choosing a great regular is 29%...

 

Overall, the odds of drafting a future ace pitcher in 16 years of top 10 picks is 8%, while the odds of drafting a great regular is 18%.

 

tinstaapp

 

Pitchers get hurt and flame out. Now, if you have the numbers handy, how many were college vs HS and what about good solid regular starters? If Jack Leiter is the pick, makes it to the bigs by 23 and is an ERod level starter for you for 6 years, then that's a fricken homerun. You don't have the luxury of picking a Chris Sale every time you are this high

[mvp 78]

I saw some video of Jaden Hill (P LSU) the other day. He has pretty good stuff.

 

Rocker seems like an absolute stud though.

[jacksonianmarch]

I saw some video of Jaden Hill (P LSU) the other day. He has pretty good stuff.

 

Rocker seems like an absolute stud though.

 

He does. I doubt Rocker gets to you. If by some miracle both are available, though, I think Leiter is the safer pick to make it to the bigs. If this was a rebuild on a small market club, I go Rocker all the way. But on a big market club likely 2 years from heavily investing in the team, you need a guy who will be in AAA or the bigs by then and a guy like Leiter is more likely to make that happen. You don't have to teach Leiter how to pitch to big league hitters. He had those talks at the dinner table with his all star dad

[mvp 78]

@IanCundall

Rocker and Leiter are the probable starters for Vandy's season opening doubleheader today, starting at 1pm.

[notin]

Leiter. In the MLB, these sons of the fathers that make it are often good bets: Bonds, Griffey, Fielder?, Tatis, Mahomes (wha?)... grandson of Yaz... with the Toronto trio and Witt Jr. on deck. Would anyone gamble a future pick on D'Angelo Oritz?

 

I was saying this just the other day to Dale Berra and Pete Rose Jr...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I was saying this just the other day to Dale Berra and Pete Rose Jr...

 

The Boone brothers discussed the topic while announcing the '17 World Series when McCullers Jr. was pitching to Cody Bellinger.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rocker and Leiter both dominated yesterday. Leiter flirted with 100 mph on the Vandy radar gun.

 

Hill had great stuff, too, this week, so no current concerns about past arm strain.

 

These guys have the next four or five months to showcase abilities and set the draft order.

[mvp 78]

I was saying this just the other day to Dale Berra and Pete Rose Jr...

 

And Koby, Kacy and Kody Clemens.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And Koby, Kacy and Kody Clemens.

 

I don't know why, but for some reason I may trust the wisdom of Al Leiter in teaching his son how to actually pitch and not just enhance the speed of his fastball.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't know why, but for some reason I may trust the wisdom of Al Leiter in teaching his son how to actually pitch and not just enhance the speed of his fastball.

 

But I'm sure there are those who will insist that choosing a top-rated prospect is a total crapshoot, and has absolutely nothing to do with who his father is.

[mvp 78]

I don't know why, but for some reason I may trust the wisdom of Al Leiter in teaching his son how to actually pitch and not just enhance the speed of his fastball.

 

I think all of his sons are positional players.

[mvp 78]

But I'm sure there are those who will insist that choosing a top-rated prospect is a total crapshoot, and has absolutely nothing to do with who his father is.

 

I think the background helps, but you always go with the guy who is more talented. At some point, professional coaching is more important than the conversations you had as a child at the dinner table.

[notin]

I don't know why, but for some reason I may trust the wisdom of Al Leiter in teaching his son how to actually pitch and not just enhance the speed of his fastball.

 

Secrets he clearly kept from his nephew Mark Leiter Jr.

 

And you know Mark Jr. completely blew off his dad and went to Uncle Al for that advice. You would have, too. Just like Mike Maddux's kids probably did...

[mvp 78]

Secrets he clearly kept from his nephew Mark Leiter Jr.

 

And you know Mark Jr. completely blew off his dad and went to Uncle Al for that advice. You would have, too. Just like Mike Maddux's kids probably did...

 

I'm just waiting for the 4th generation of Boones to show up.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the background helps, but you always go with the guy who is more talented.

 

Right, at least that's not subjective...

[moonslav59]

I think the background helps, but you always go with the guy who is more talented. At some point, professional coaching is more important than the conversations you had as a child at the dinner table.

 

Maybe his inherited genes help.

[mvp 78]

Maybe his inherited genes help.

 

Maybe, but there hasn't been a strong correlation with former MLB players pumping out future all stars.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe, but there hasn't been a strong correlation with former MLB players pumping out future all stars.

 

I'm guessing they do well compared to the general population, though.

[moonslav59]

I'm guessing they do well compared to the general population, though.

 

I was going to say the same, and several have hit it bigger better than their papas did.

[mvp 78]

I'm guessing they do well compared to the general population, though.

 

Maybe. But if it comes down to Kumar Rocker and Leiter, should Leiter's pedigree play a material part? I don't think so.

[mvp 78]

I was going to say the same, and several have hit it bigger better than their papas did.

 

And over 99% of player's sons never sniff the bigs.