Who should the Sox have play CF on opening day?

[mvp 78]

Who should be the opening day CFer for the Sox?

[Thunder]

I'm fine with JBJ unless somebody better comes along

[mvp 78]

I like JBJ too, but think Pillar could sign for less money on a shorter deal. I originally thought JBJ could sign for 2/12-14M. Other places think he'll get a 3rd year and maybe even more money. In this market, I think JBJ won't get much more than my original prediction.

[Bellhorn04]

The Pillar of Strength!

 

(OK, maybe I only voted for him so I could use that.)

[mvp 78]

The Pillar of Strength!

 

(OK, maybe I only voted for him so I could use that.)

 

He was a pleasant surprise this year. Fun to watch. Plus, we can trade him at the deadline again!

[oldtimer]

I'd also be fie with JBJ at 2/$12 -$13 mil. I would use Duran for the 4th outfielder, trade Beni and look for a power bat for LF.

[TylerD]

Jbj

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I picked Springer, because even though it won't be him (the horrors of losing a draft pick), he is by far the best all-around in the poll, and the Red Sox need really good players so they can be really good again. I think Springer will be at least good for the next four years, and can play any outfield position, so he won't block a guy like Duran down the road.

 

Every other name on this list that is not a Red Sox is a back-up/fourth man type... so I'd also sign a second, inexpensive guy for depth.

[Bellhorn04]

I picked Springer, because even though it won't be him (the horrors of losing a draft pick), he is by far the best all-around in the poll, and the Red Sox need really good players so they can be really good again. I think Springer will be at least good for the next four years, and can play any outfield position, so he won't block a guy like Duran down the road.

 

The issue isn't so much the draft pick. MLBTR predicts he will get 5 years/125 million, and that looks like it's being discounted a little for the COVID-19 factor.

 

So that's 25 mill a year tacked onto the payroll.

 

Springer is an excellent player that every team would love to have. But I would rather see that kind of money allocated to pitching.

[notin]

I picked Springer, because even though it won't be him (the horrors of losing a draft pick), he is by far the best all-around in the poll, and the Red Sox need really good players so they can be really good again. I think Springer will be at least good for the next four years, and can play any outfield position, so he won't block a guy like Duran down the road.

 

Every other name on this list that is not a Red Sox is a back-up/fourth man type... so I'd also sign a second, inexpensive guy for depth.

 

If the market is such that Brad Hand cannot even get claimed off waivers with a $10mill contact attached, a player like Springer might decide to take a one year deal and re-enter the market without a Qualifying Offer after next season, where he could presumably get a much better contract.

 

Do you give up the draft pick and use a huge chunk of the team budget (whatever it is) to sign Springer for a single season?

[notin]

I'd also be fie with JBJ at 2/$12 -$13 mil. I would use Duran for the 4th outfielder, trade Beni and look for a power bat for LF.

 

Duran as a fourth outfielde strikesme as a bad idea, as he would spend too much time on the bench. Signing one of the stopgap players and bringing Duran into the fold mid-season as a starter would work for me...

[notin]

The Pillar of Strength!

 

(OK, maybe I only voted for him so I could use that.)

 

Of course, if he reverts to his pre-2020 numbers, he might be the Pillar of Salt...

[moonslav59]

I almost voted Taylor. I picked Marisnick, because I want almost all our resources going to building up the pitching staff- hopefully longer term.

[mvp 78]

Of course, if he reverts to his pre-2020 numbers, he might be the Pillar of Salt...

 

You don't believe in his career high BABIP and SLG? He can't do that again in 2021?

[Bellhorn04]

Pillar has been a good value over his career.

 

FanGraphs has his career dollar value at $103 million.

B-R has his career earnings at about $15 million.

[Bellhorn04]

I almost voted Taylor. I picked Marisnick, because I want almost all our resources going to building up the pitching staff- hopefully longer term.

 

Which does make sense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The issue isn't so much the draft pick. MLBTR predicts he will get 5 years/125 million, and that looks like it's being discounted a little for the COVID-19 factor.

 

So that's 25 mill a year tacked onto the payroll.

 

Springer is an excellent player that every team would love to have. But I would rather see that kind of money allocated to pitching.

 

I'm with notin on the incredible, shrinking market, and can't see anyone going long on a 31-year-old outfielder at near Mookie money (per year... Betts made $27M this summer entering his prime -- I can't see Springer getting $25M in '21). I think Geo may turn out to be this winter's JD Martinez: looking for 200, settling for 100. Realistically, he might end up signing for Eovaldi money, something like 4 for $68...

 

I also don't consider a Springer signing an impediment to pitching acquisitions (I was merely taking a poll, but still want four new starting pitchers) -- not if Boston wants to contend again, like Sam and Tom keep saying... and we're hoping JH is thinking... as soon as he thaws from suspended animation in a cryogenic chamber somewhere.

 

Boston diehards can't let the franchise forget it bragged on social media about hitting the Reset button.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm with notin on the incredible, shrinking market, and can't see anyone going long on a 31-year-old outfielder at near Mookie money (per year... Betts made $27M this summer entering his prime -- I can't see Springer getting $25M in '21). I think Geo may turn out to be this winter's JD Martinez: looking for 200, settling for 100. Realistically, he might end up signing for Eovaldi money, something like 4 for $68...

 

I'm sure the guys at MLBTR took into consideration the expected down market.

 

Their guess is $125 mill, and your guess is $68 mill.

 

Something to watch.

[notin]

I'm sure the guys at MLBTR took into consideration the expected down market.

 

Their guess is $125 mill, and your guess is $68 mill.

 

Something to watch.

 

He might just take 1/$20mill and hope 2021-22 is a better market. Plus he'd be in a better position without a QO attached...

[Bellhorn04]

He might just take 1/$20mill and hope 2021-22 is a better market. Plus he'd be in a better position without a QO attached...

 

Sure, he might.

 

My guess is that a few of the premier free agents will get multi-year offers that are too much to pass up in these uncertain times. That seems to be what MLBTR is speculating as well.

[notin]

Sure, he might.

 

My guess is that a few of the premier free agents will get multi-year offers that are too much to pass up in these uncertain times. That seems to be what MLBTR is speculating as well.

 

It comes down to how many get considered "premier." I think Bauer and Realmuto. Beyond that, I am not so certain anyone will...

[Bellhorn04]

It comes down to how many get considered "premier." I think Bauer and Realmuto. Beyond that, I am not so certain anyone will...

 

MLBTR's rankings:

 

1. Bauer 4/128

2. Realmuto 5/125

3. Springer 5/125

4. Ozuna 4/72

 

I'd say Springer makes the cut.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLBTR's rankings:

 

1. Bauer 4/128

2. Realmuto 5/125

3. Springer 5/125

4. Ozuna 4/72

 

I'd say Springer makes the cut.

 

I love Springer. He's one of the clutch postseason players of this century -- .895 OPS vs. .852 OPS in the regular season. But his 27.3 career bWAR at age 31 is less than well-paid prime-timers like Harper 33.4 and Machado 39.5, who are both 28. Springer's also not as good as .900 OPS stars signed for team-friendly $100 million contracts like Acuna and Bregman (who may be a better shortstop as a fill-in or shifter than half the real shortstops).

 

Interestingly, Springer's #1 comp on baseball-reference (which compare statistical accomplishments) is Tony Conigliaro. After that it's Yoenis Cespedes, Richard Hildalgo and Yasiel Puig. I'm not saying those guys in their primes weren't worth $100M in modern dollars... but in another possibly truncated season with no fans?

[Bellhorn04]

I love Springer. He's one of the clutch postseason players of this century -- .895 OPS vs. .852 OPS in the regular season. But his 27.3 career bWAR at age 31 is less than well-paid prime-timers like Harper 33.4 and Machado 39.5, who are both 28. Springer's also not as good as .900 OPS stars signed for team-friendly $100 million contracts like Acuna and Bregman (who may be a better shortstop as a fill-in or shifter than half the real shortstops).

 

If Springer does get 120 million, that would only be 40% of Harper and Machado, of course, or 180 million less.

[dgalehouse]

I would keep JBJ , if possible. Springer would most likely be too expensive. Duran is waiting in the wings , but I don't know that he is ready yet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Springer does get 120 million, that would only be 40% of Harper and Machado, of course, or 180 million less.

 

Of course. But is Springer worth 50 million more than Ozuna (according to MLBTR)? Ozuna is two years younger and just led the NL in home runs and RBIs. And he has Hart -- his two biggest comps are Jim Ray Hart and Corey Hart. And then GlenAllen Hill and... Richard Hidalgo! I don't want to hijack the thread, but for the money, the Red Sox may be better signing Ozuna than Springer.

[Bellhorn04]

Of course. But is Springer worth 50 million more than Ozuna (according to MLBTR)? Ozuna is two years younger and just led the NL in home runs and RBIs. And he has Hart -- his two biggest comps are Jim Ray Hart and Corey Hart. And then GlenAllen Hill and... Richard Hidalgo! I don't want to hijack the thread, but for the money, the Red Sox may be better signing Ozuna than Springer.

 

Don't want to hijack the thread? Hell man, that's what we do best here.

 

IMHO what Springer gets is a moot point, where the Red Sox are concerned. We're in the market for a Pillar or Marisnick this year. Pitching, pitching, pitching is what Bloom will be focused on.

[notin]

I think the Sox CF next year will be Kevin Kiermaier.

 

The Rays need a catcher and have oodles (Yes, oodles!) of young pitching Bloom knows well. And he’ll take back Kiermaier’s expensive (2 yr / $25.6mill) contract away from Tampa in order to get as much pitching as he can. That Tampa has an abundance of centerfielders with Margot and Arozarena just adds to how much sense this deal would make for them...

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Sox CF next year will be Kevin Kiermaier.

 

The Rays need a catcher and have oodles (Yes, oodles!) of young pitching Bloom knows well. And he’ll take back Kiermaier’s expensive (2 yr / $25.6mill) contract away from Tampa in order to get as much pitching as he can. That Tampa has an abundance of centerfielders with Margot and Arozarena just adds to how much sense this deal would make for them...

 

I like this idea.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I like this idea.

 

I center the motion.