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Posted
Here is the difference that doesn't show in fWAR : Lester is a winner. A champion. Perez is a jabroni.

 

Age does become a factor though.

Posted
Here is the difference that doesn't show in fWAR : Lester is a winner. A champion. Perez is a jabroni.

 

Sure fWAR shows that.

 

Lester has 46.3 fWAR for his career. Good for 72nd among all pitchers since 1950, just ahead of Johan Santana and just behind Kevin Millwood.

 

Perez has 10.9. Not even worth looking up the rank. Perez is 7 years younger and is extremely unlikely to make up the 36 fWAR difference in that time.

 

 

But by being 7 years younger, Perez might have a slight edge in 2021...

Posted
Sure fWAR shows that.

 

Lester has 46.3 fWAR for his career. Good for 72nd among all pitchers since 1950, just ahead of Johan Santana and just behind Kevin Millwood.

 

Perez has 10.9. Not even worth looking up the rank. Perez is 7 years younger and is extremely unlikely to make up the 36 fWAR difference in that time.

 

 

But by being 7 years younger, Perez might have a slight edge in 2021...

 

It's certainly a close call.

Posted

I think this was a good move. Salaries are projected to go way down this year, so $6.85 million for a 4th starter may end up outpricing the market.

 

So let's see, where do we stand at present:

#1 - Rodriguez is supposedly recovered from myocarditis, yay!

#2 - Eovaldi

#3 - Pivetta

#4 - Houck

#5 - missing

 

And when Chris Sale returns, he probably replaces whichever starter is least performing.

 

I think they need to acquire one starter of caliber (#1-#3), one innings eater starter (#4-#5), and one backup starter.

Posted
I think this was a good move. Salaries are projected to go way down this year, so $6.85 million for a 4th starter may end up outpricing the market.

 

So let's see, where do we stand at present:

#1 - Rodriguez is supposedly recovered from myocarditis, yay!

#2 - Eovaldi

#3 - Pivetta

#4 - Houck

#5 - missing

 

And when Chris Sale returns, he probably replaces whichever starter is least performing.

 

I think they need to acquire one starter of caliber (#1-#3), one innings eater starter (#4-#5), and one backup starter.

 

I think it's likely one of your present #1 and #2 will miss significant time with maladies, and one of #3 and #4 will not develop as hoped their first full year in Boston. To me -- especially if it's a buyer's market -- the Sox should look to acquire two potential aces, two innings eaters and resign Perez on adjusted short money/longer years.

 

The Red Sox need four new starters. Among them could be one flyer -- like Kluber -- but the other three have to be established and ready to go.

Posted (edited)
Harm, there will be a fairly long list of possibilities when all is said and done.

 

Charlie Morton, Jon Lester, Rick Porcello have been mentioned. And as others have said, Perez could still be signed as a free agent.

Perhaps Charlie Morton, who turns 37 this month, would prefer a top 2021 contender.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30151839/mlb-power-rankings-way-too-early-edition-how-dodgers-rays-all-30-teams-stack-2021

 

Or not.

Edited by harmony
Posted
I'm sure they all prefer contenders. But at the end of the day, they can only choose from the offers they get...

 

And they often have a bias toward the highest offer...

Posted
And they often have a bias toward the highest offer...

 

That is what every auctioneer and every single e-bay seller tends to do. It is usually the smartest move.

Posted
I think it's likely one of your present #1 and #2 will miss significant time with maladies, and one of #3 and #4 will not develop as hoped their first full year in Boston. To me -- especially if it's a buyer's market -- the Sox should look to acquire two potential aces, two innings eaters and resign Perez on adjusted short money/longer years.

 

The Red Sox need four new starters. Among them could be one flyer -- like Kluber -- but the other three have to be established and ready to go.

 

I still like Quintana and Lester to fill two rotation holes,

Community Moderator
Posted
I think it's 98 to 99.5%.

 

I neglected to round up to 100%.

 

What players have opted to not take the highest dollar? Varitek? Anyone else?

Posted
I still like Quintana and Lester to fill two rotation holes,

 

I think I'd prefer to take the flyer on Kluber. I have to say that's an intriguing one! If he can actually come back, that would be quite the pickup. Could you imagine how good we'd be if we had Sale, Kluber, Rodriguez, and Eovaldi all pitching well?

Posted
What players have opted to not take the highest dollar? Varitek? Anyone else?

 

Cliff Lee, supposedly. And there have been a few others who said they took a little less.

 

But most of the data on the offers is never made publicly available, so how would we know?

 

Sometimes you hear people say 'we outbid ourselves' as in signings like Price and Eovaldi. But we have no actual clue what other offers there were.

Community Moderator
Posted
Cliff Lee, supposedly. And there have been a few others who said they took a little less.

 

But most of the data on the offers is never made publicly available, so how would we know?

 

Sometimes you hear people say 'we outbid ourselves' as in signings like Price and Eovaldi. But we have no actual clue what other offers there were.

 

I just think that if it did happen, that a team would say "yeah, we offered more and he went elsewhere." I'd be surprised if it happens even once per offseason.

Posted
I just think that if it did happen, that a team would say "yeah, we offered more and he went elsewhere." I'd be surprised if it happens even once per offseason.

 

I remember that when the Nats signed Jayson Werth for 7/126, they basically said the only way they could sign any big names then was with a massive overpay.

Posted
According to the early ESPN power rankings for 2021, that could be the Red Sox:

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/30151839/mlb-power-rankings-way-too-early-edition-how-dodgers-rays-all-30-teams-stack-2021

 

Or not.

 

19th is an improvement and maybe near a wild card challenge.

 

Let's see where we are after signing more players than most of the teams 1-18.

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