Red Sox 2021 payroll thread

[Bellhorn04]

Here's the way it looks right now:

 

Guaranteed

Sale, Chris 25,600,000

Martinez, J.D. 22,000,000

Bogaerts, Xander 20,000,000

Eovaldi, Nathan 17,000,000

Vazquez, Christian 4,516,667

Benintendi, Andrew 5,000,000

Option

Perez, Martin 6,250,000

Arbitration estimates

Rodriguez, Eduardo 10,000,000

Devers, Rafael 6,000,000

Barnes, Matt 4,000,000

Plawecki, Kevin 1,500,000

Brasier, Ryan 1,000,000

Brice, Austin 1,000,000

Unproductive

Price, David 16,000,000

Pedroia, Dustin 13,750,000

Pre-arbitration 8,000,000

40-man players 2,250,000

Estimated benefits 15,500,000

Total 179,366,667

First threshold 210,000,000

Amount under 30,633,333

[Bellhorn04]

Cot's Contracts has us at 141,617, which is 37,750 less than the total above.

 

Cot's only shows guaranteed amounts.

 

Here is what makes up the 37,750 difference:

 

Perez, Martin 6,250,000

Rodriguez, Eduardo 10,000,000

Devers, Rafael 6,000,000

Barnes, Matt 4,000,000

Plawecki, Kevin 1,500,000

Brasier, Ryan 1,000,000

Brice, Austin 1,000,000

Pre-arbitration 8,000,000

[oldtimer]

Here's the way it looks right now:

 

Guaranteed

Sale, Chris 25,600,000

Martinez, J.D. 22,000,000

Bogaerts, Xander 20,000,000

Eovaldi, Nathan 17,000,000

Vazquez, Christian 4,516,667

Benintendi, Andrew 5,000,000

Option

Perez, Martin 6,250,000

Arbitration estimates

Rodriguez, Eduardo 10,000,000

Devers, Rafael 6,000,000

Barnes, Matt 4,000,000

Plawecki, Kevin 1,500,000

Brasier, Ryan 1,000,000

Brice, Austin 1,000,000

Unproductive

Price, David 16,000,000

Pedroia, Dustin 13,750,000

Pre-arbitration 8,000,000

40-man players 2,250,000

Estimated benefits 15,500,000

Total 179,366,667

First threshold 210,000,000

Amount under 30,633,333

Don't underestimate Bloom's willingness to trade away some of our guaranteed list to obtain money for better fits for the team. Could we get a closer and a decent starter in trade or through the FA route for $22 mil?

[moonslav59]

Okay, $38M to spend- maybe $58M, if Henry allows us to go over the first limit by $19.9M- doubtful, but possible, especially if we are in the race in July and need a couple expensive pieces.

 

It might be a tough pill to swallow trading some big contracts and paying part of the deal, like with Price, but maybe a deal like last winter's suggested Price for Myers type deal might work.

 

Eovaldi for Odor plus a cheap but decent player would cost the Rangers $5M more but save us $9M on the tax budget. (Just an example of the type of move that may be sought.)

 

Here's some possible budget cutting choices:

 

Non tender ...

$8.5-$10.5M ERod

$3-3.5M Peraza

$1M Godley

$1M Brasier

$1M Covey

(I think we keep $4M Barnes, $1.5M Plawecki & $1M Pivetta)

Letting some of all go could "save" $10-17M, but then we have more slots to fill.)

 

Sale $25M will not be traded, at least until he shows he's back.

JD $22M may be dealt in the summer, if we are out of it, but it's doubtful we trade him this winter, unless we pay some or take back salary.

Beni $5M could be traded, but his stock is low.

Vaz $4.4M could be dealt, but adequately filling a catcher hole usually costs more than that in money or asset value.

 

My guess at the top trade probabilities are:

 

1. Barnes

2. Eovaldi

3. Beni

4. JD

5. Vaz

 

(We could sign ERod & trade him. If we can sign and get something for Brasier, Peraza, Godley, Covey or Brice, sure.)

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we trade none of these guys, but I think we will.

Bogey $20M, Pedey $14M or Perez $6,3M will not be dealt, IMO.

$1M Brice

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Isn't Eduardo Rodriguez -- at 27 and inexpensive -- exactly the kind of pitcher a rebuilding team would be looking to add? He's coming off a lost season with a debilitating disease, but that also means an entire extra year of arm rest (except when he was overmatching hitters in the first Spring Training). It remains to be seen if he can ever fully heal from Covid and recapture the skills that enabled him to reach the upper level of his profession. Sounds just like a guy Bloom would be willing to take a chance at...

[jacksonianmarch]

He's got one more year left. If he comes back and shows his prior ability, he will be really expensive.

[harmony]

Isn't Eduardo Rodriguez -- at 27 and inexpensive -- exactly the kind of pitcher a rebuilding team would be looking to add? He's coming off a lost season with a debilitating disease, but that also means an entire extra year of arm rest (except when he was overmatching hitters in the first Spring Training). It remains to be seen if he can ever fully heal from Covid and recapture the skills that enabled him to reach the upper level of his profession. Sounds just like a guy Bloom would be willing to take a chance at...

Will the Red Sox be competitive in 2021, the final year of team control over Eduardo Rodriguez?

 

If the Red Sox tender Rodriguez a 2021 contract, in the arbitration process they'll be working off the lefthander's 2020 salary of $8.3 million.

 

Much may depend on the medical updates over the next eight weeks.

[Nick]

He's got one more year left. If he comes back and shows his prior ability, he will be really expensive.

 

You damn right.....if Sox non tender him, what would the Yankees pay him?

[moonslav59]

You damn right.....if Sox non tender him, what would the Yankees pay him?

 

If we non tender him it's because his 2021 health outlook (last year of control) is scary.

 

It would be scary to NY, too.

[notin]

If we non tender him it's because his 2021 health outlook (last year of control) is scary.

 

It would be scary to NY, too.

 

There was a trend with those oft-injured pitchers like Smyly, Pineda and Richard getting 2yr $10-12 mill contracts despite already being out for the first year. Those deals rarely pan out...

[jacksonianmarch]

The guys you noted also had performance issues. ERod’s issues haven’t been performance based.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Will the Red Sox be competitive in 2021, the final year of team control over Eduardo Rodriguez?

 

If the Red Sox tender Rodriguez a 2021 contract, in the arbitration process they'll be working off the lefthander's 2020 salary of $8.3 million.

 

Much may depend on the medical updates over the next eight weeks.

 

Uncertainty over longterm Covid-19 effects and recovery has to be the main factor in ERod's status. The notion another team would be willing to trade good prospects for a guy who may never be the same or soon become expensive makes little sense after a summer of lost revenue. I can't see him leaving unless he's cut.

[moonslav59]

Uncertainty over longterm Covid-19 effects and recovery has to be the main factor in ERod's status. The notion another team would be willing to trade good prospects for a guy who may never be the same or soon become expensive makes little sense after a summer of lost revenue. I can't see him leaving unless he's cut.

 

He could be re-signed through arb or not, show he can pitch in 2021 and then be traded next summer, assuming we are not in a playoff race.

 

I agree, we are not likely going to be able to sign and trade him, this winter.

[notin]

The guys you noted also had performance issues. ERod’s issues haven’t been performance based.

 

Which one had performance issues?

 

They were all good pitchers, but all had major health issues. Unlke ERod, their issues were all related to their arms and not due to infectious disease...

[moonslav59]

Which one had performance issues?

 

They were all good pitchers, but all had major health issues. Unlke ERod, their issues were all related to their arms and not due to infectious disease...

 

...and his knee, earlier.

[mvp 78]

He's got one more year left. If he comes back and shows his prior ability, he will be really expensive.

 

That's a huge "if."

 

If he does, you try to extend him during the year or give him the QO after.

[oldtimer]

Okay, $38M to spend- maybe $58M, if Henry allows us to go over the first limit by $19.9M- doubtful, but possible, especially if we are in the race in July and need a couple expensive pieces.

 

It might be a tough pill to swallow trading some big contracts and paying part of the deal, like with Price, but maybe a deal like last winter's suggested Price for Myers type deal might work.

 

Eovaldi for Odor plus a cheap but decent player would cost the Rangers $5M more but save us $9M on the tax budget. (Just an example of the type of move that may be sought.)

 

Here's some possible budget cutting choices:

 

Non tender ...

$8.5-$10.5M ERod

$3-3.5M Peraza

$1M Godley

$1M Brasier

$1M Covey

(I think we keep $4M Barnes, $1.5M Plawecki & $1M Pivetta)

Letting some of all go could "save" $10-17M, but then we have more slots to fill.)

 

Sale $25M will not be traded, at least until he shows he's back.

JD $22M may be dealt in the summer, if we are out of it, but it's doubtful we trade him this winter, unless we pay some or take back salary.

Beni $5M could be traded, but his stock is low.

Vaz $4.4M could be dealt, but adequately filling a catcher hole usually costs more than that in money or asset value.

 

My guess at the top trade probabilities are:

 

1. Barnes

2. Eovaldi

3. Beni

4. JD

5. Vaz

 

(We could sign ERod & trade him. If we can sign and get something for Brasier, Peraza, Godley, Covey or Brice, sure.)

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we trade none of these guys, but I think we will.

Bogey $20M, Pedey $14M or Perez $6,3M will not be dealt, IMO.

$1M Brice

 

 

We could trade Beni at full value and maybe Eovaldi as well, freeing up $22 mil to get a decent starter and closer. We probably can fill at least one outfield slot internally. I like Eovaldi when he is healthy, but that is the big question with him, dependability.

[harmony]

We could trade Beni at full value and maybe Eovaldi as well, freeing up $22 mil to get a decent starter and closer. We probably can fill at least one outfield slot internally. I like Eovaldi when he is healthy, but that is the big question with him, dependability.

A trade of Andrew Benintendi and/or Nathan Eovaldi would require replacements at thin positions. That's the problem.

 

The question of Eovaldi's dependability limits his trade value.

 

Benintendi and Eovaldi are likely to return to the 2021 Red Sox.

[mvp 78]

A trade of Andrew Benintendi and/or Nathan Eovaldi would require replacements at thin positions. That's the problem.

 

The question of Eovaldi's dependability limits his trade value.

 

Benintendi and Eovaldi are likely to return to the 2021 Red Sox.

 

You only need a replacement if you plan on competing. We still don't know what the overall plan is for 2021, a year where ERod and Sale remain big question marks again.

[moonslav59]

A trade of Andrew Benintendi and/or Nathan Eovaldi would require replacements at thin positions. That's the problem.

 

The question of Eovaldi's dependability limits his trade value.

 

Benintendi and Eovaldi are likely to return to the 2021 Red Sox.

 

Well, if Beni is the 2020 Beni, what's to replace?

 

Yes, Eovaldi was second in IP for us, this year, but who know what to expect in 2021.

 

I get the risk, but keeping them is a big risk, too... and a known cost.

[oldtimer]

Well, if Beni is the 2020 Beni, what's to replace?

 

Yes, Eovaldi was second in IP for us, this year, but who know what to expect in 2021.

 

I get the risk, but keeping them is a big risk, too... and a known cost.[/ which infer]

 

 

You get my point. There was an article in the Red Sox News section which infers the Sox may have ruined Beni by trying to turn him into a power hitter. My opinion is that he needs a fresh start and that could be with another team.

 

Replacing Eovaldi and Beni with a starter and a closer should be possible and backfilling Beni's position from within is also possible. These are the kind of moves a creative Bloom may try to make.

[Bellhorn04]

You get my point. There was an article in the Red Sox News section which infers the Sox may have ruined Beni by trying to turn him into a power hitter. My opinion is that he needs a fresh start and that could be with another team.

 

Replacing Eovaldi and Beni with a starter and a closer should be possible and backfilling Beni's position from within is also possible. These are the kind of moves a creative Bloom may try to make.

 

Personally I hope they both return. Eovaldi pitched extremely well this season, especially after coming off the DL. I realize the injury risk, but the guy's got serious upside too. And Benintendi seems like a guy with pretty good skills who may just need proper guidance and to get some confidence back.

[harmony]

Personally I hope they both return. Eovaldi pitched extremely well this season, especially after coming off the DL. I realize the injury risk, but the guy's got serious upside too. And Benintendi seems like a guy with pretty good skills who may just need proper guidance and to get some confidence back.

According to Baseball Trade Values, Andrew Benintendi and Nathan Eovaldi have a combined trade value of a negative $4.9 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/604/

 

Benintendi and Eovaldi are owed a combined $23.6 million in 2021 (and Eovaldi another $17 million in 2022). How much cash would the Red Sox need to send to get a nominal return?

 

Benintendi and Eovaldi are likely to return to the 2021 Red Sox.

[dgalehouse]

Some folks want to get rid of almost everybody. We would just have that much bigger of a rebuild job. It is big enough as is .

[Bellhorn04]

Some folks want to get rid of almost everybody. We would just have that much bigger of a rebuild job. It is big enough as is .

 

I agree.

[Bellhorn04]

According to Baseball Trade Values, Andrew Benintendi and Nathan Eovaldi have a combined trade value of a negative $4.9 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/604/

 

Benintendi and Eovaldi are owed a combined $23.6 million in 2021 (and Eovaldi another $17 million in 2022). How much cash would the Red Sox need to send to get a nominal return?

 

Benintendi and Eovaldi are likely to return to the 2021 Red Sox.

 

Those trade valuations really are pencil-neck geek stuff. I do understand the principles behind it, but it's based on pure statistical probabilities and projections. The computers don't know if Benintendi is fixable or if Eovaldi's arm is sound. Maybe no one does.

[harmony]

Those trade valuations really are pencil-neck geek stuff. I do understand the principles behind it, but it's based on pure statistical probabilities and projections. The computers don't know if Benintendi is fixable or if Eovaldi's arm is sound. Maybe no one does.

What is a better measure of trade value? Perhaps no one is qualified to discuss roster moves.

[moonslav59]

You get my point. There was an article in the Red Sox News section which infers the Sox may have ruined Beni by trying to turn him into a power hitter. My opinion is that he needs a fresh start and that could be with another team.

 

Replacing Eovaldi and Beni with a starter and a closer should be possible and backfilling Beni's position from within is also possible. These are the kind of moves a creative Bloom may try to make.

 

I wasn't aware we tried to get Beni to swing harder. I thought it was his choice.

 

One idea might be to trade Eovaldi for another big salary but someone who is more durable or slightly cheaper.

[harmony]

I wasn't aware we tried to get Beni to swing harder. I thought it was his choice.

 

One idea might be to trade Eovaldi for another big salary but someone who is more durable or slightly cheaper.

Why would a trade partner do that?

 

Few teams are thinner in the starting rotation than the Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Why would a trade partner do that?

 

Few teams are thinner in the starting rotation than the Red Sox.

 

Because maybe they like Eovaldi or the payer we add to the deal more, or we get a 2Bman or CF not a pitcher, and that team has a glut of players at the position we need. (Then, we fill the pitching gap via free agency.)

 

Let's say a team really likes Beni and thinks Eovaldi is helpful, too. They just don't want to pay $17M. If they think Eovaldi is worth $10M, they may dump $7M back at us at a position we need. If it's a pitcher, the added value of Beni gets us a better, cheaper or more durable pitcher than Eovaldi. If it's another position player, the money saved could be used to upgrade other gaps.