A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Dalbec could end up being a plus on defense.

Verdugo is a plus in RF- I'm not sure about CF.

Renfroe is okay in LF, and Devers could be a plus, this year at 3B, but it's hard to count on that.

Many feel Vaz is a plus, and he probably is, if you don't count how much he gets out of the staff.

Bogey and Arroyo are not pluses. EHern shows minus at 2B and plus in CF with the metrics, but Cora thinks he's great at 2B.

Cordero is a wild card. He has all the tools, but has yet to have a long enough look to see what he can do.

If Chavis is playing, it's a minus.

 

There is a chance our defense could be better than expected, but expectations are very low.

[harmony]

Dalbec could end up being a plus on defense.

Verdugo is a plus in RF- I'm not sure about CF.

Renfroe is okay in LF, and Devers could be a plus, this year at 3B, but it's hard to count on that.

Many feel Vaz is a plus, and he probably is, if you don't count how much he gets out of the staff.

Bogey and Arroyo are not pluses. EHern shows minus at 2B and plus in CF with the metrics, but Cora thinks he's great at 2B.

Cordero is a wild card. He has all the tools, but has yet to have a long enough look to see what he can do.

If Chavis is playing, it's a minus.

 

There is a chance our defense could be better than expected, but expectations are very low.

The rankings of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers in Defensive Runs Saved since the start of the 2017 season:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=13,d

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=13,d

[moonslav59]

The rankings of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers in Defensive Runs Saved since the start of the 2017 season:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=13,d

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2020&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2017-01-01&enddate=2020-12-31&sort=13,d

 

I'm well aware of these numbers and have argued the Bogey is a bottom tier SS on defense. One can argue he is one of the worst FT SS's on defense since Jeter.

 

I do believe that Devers has the skills to be a plus, and he showed signs of that in 2019. He could also continue being a minus.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm well aware of these numbers and have argued the Bogey is a bottom tier SS on defense. One can argue he is one of the worst FT SS's on defense since Jeter.

 

I do believe that Devers has the skills to be a plus, and he showed signs of that in 2019. He could also continue being a minus.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

Before anyone starts screaming in uppercase exclamatory sentences, it is early, even for the Grapefruit League.

 

However... we haven't even seen Bogie on the field yet, but what we have seen on D is inconsistency. It may take longer for all these versatile, multi-positional players to hone their skills in so many areas, at the same time trying to accustom themselves with so many new teammates' proclivities.

 

Meanwhile at the plate, despite the early bashing stats, there have been lots of swings and misses from guys we're counting on heavily to be good, like JD and Rafie, still flailing away at pitches nowhere near the strike zone. Maybe just some pitchers are ahead of just some hitters so far.

 

Question for anyone who has watched the Braves vs. the Sox so far on TV: does Atlanta look like an 82-win Pecota team, just two projected Ws better than Boston?

[a700hitter]

Trying to make this into a good defensive team would be like trying to make Benji Molina into a base running threat.

[notin]

I do think an outfield of Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe might give the Sox the best combination of throwing arms in MLB. Those guys all have cannons...

[a700hitter]

I do think an outfield of Cordero-Verdugo-Renfroe might give the Sox the best combination of throwing arms in MLB. Those guys all have cannons...

You have to catch it before you can throw it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You have to catch it before you can throw it.

 

You mean cleanly fielding caroms off the wall? They should have a lot of opportunities to prevent doubles from stretching into triples or inside-the-parkers.

[jacksonianmarch]

Verdugo, per UZR/150, was an average RFer in 2020. Park has to factor in here as Fenway's RF is immense. Coming in, year 1 and playing league average D in Fenway's RF is not easy. So he could be a plus over time. He is not a plus now. Thing is, he is not a minus either. Moving him to CF, where he was a minus with LAD, in Fenway is a good way to make him a big minus for 2021

[moonslav59]

Verdugo, per UZR/150, was an average RFer in 2020. Park has to factor in here as Fenway's RF is immense. Coming in, year 1 and playing league average D in Fenway's RF is not easy. So he could be a plus over time. He is not a plus now. Thing is, he is not a minus either. Moving him to CF, where he was a minus with LAD, in Fenway is a good way to make him a big minus for 2021

 

I'll bet he will be a plus in RF for Boston, this year. The large RF will allow him to make more plays, and he's a plus already, IMO.

 

He might be average in CF, but if Renfroe is in RF, he may make more plays.

[notin]

You have to catch it before you can throw it.

 

I’m not worried about the catching. The issues are more likely to be the tracking.

 

But overall, the OF isn’t going to be the biggest issue defensively. We saw Verdugo last year. He won’t be Bradley in CF, but he won’t be Dwayne Hosey either. Renfroe’s metrics place him as an average RF. And Cordero’s metrics are weak but the sample sizes are way too small. Scouts have always liked his defense. But people who have never seen him play and fall back on the metrics might be disillusioned.

 

The infield defense is the greater concern...

[moonslav59]

Before anyone starts screaming in uppercase exclamatory sentences, it is early, even for the Grapefruit League.

 

However... we haven't even seen Bogie on the field yet, but what we have seen on D is inconsistency. It may take longer for all these versatile, multi-positional players to hone their skills in so many areas, at the same time trying to accustom themselves with so many new teammates' proclivities.

 

Meanwhile at the plate, despite the early bashing stats, there have been lots of swings and misses from guys we're counting on heavily to be good, like JD and Rafie, still flailing away at pitches nowhere near the strike zone. Maybe just some pitchers are ahead of just some hitters so far.

 

Question for anyone who has watched the Braves vs. the Sox so far on TV: does Atlanta look like an 82-win Pecota team, just two projected Ws better than Boston?

 

We aren't basing our defensive projections on any ST'ing games.

 

These guys have been around a while.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Verdugo, per UZR/150, was an average RFer in 2020. Park has to factor in here as Fenway's RF is immense. Coming in, year 1 and playing league average D in Fenway's RF is not easy. So he could be a plus over time. He is not a plus now. Thing is, he is not a minus either. Moving him to CF, where he was a minus with LAD, in Fenway is a good way to make him a big minus for 2021

 

It's just like dividing fractions: invert and multiply the reciprocal. Simple math. The analytics department does this all day.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We aren't basing our defensive projections on any ST'ing games.

 

These guys have been around a while.

 

Are "these guys" the posters here, the coaching staff, the front office, Pecota, Fangraphs, EHern/Marwin/Renfroe, or Chavis, Downs, Arauz, Arroyo, Dalbec and Munoz?

[moonslav59]

Are "these guys" the posters here, the coaching staff, the front office, Pecota, Fangraphs, EHern/Marwin/Renfroe, or Chavis, Downs, Arauz, Arroyo, Dalbec and Munoz?

 

The players that are going to play a lot for the Sox have been around a while, except for maybe Cordero, who I mentioned it being hard to know how good he is on defense.

 

I'm not rating Downs and Arauz, and I mentioned Dalbec "could" become a plus. They have not had much ML time, but we can learn a lot about defense in the minors.

 

Is Bogey suddenly going to acquire plus range? (No.)

 

Can Devers play like 2019, again? (Maybe)

 

Do we know who Vaz, Renfroe, Marwin and others who have been around a while can do on defense? (Yes)

 

Can they improve or get worse? (Yes, but usually not by much in a single season, and the older you get, the more "known" you are.)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The players that are going to play a lot for the Sox have been around a while, except for maybe Cordero, who I mentioned it being hard to know how good he is on defense.

 

I'm not rating Downs and Arauz, and I mentioned Dalbec "could" become a plus. They have not had much ML time, but we can learn a lot about defense in the minors.

 

Is Bogey suddenly going to acquire plus range? (No.)

 

Can Devers play like 2019, again? (Maybe)

 

Do we know who Vaz, Renfroe, Marwin and others who have been around a while can do on defense? (Yes)

 

Can they improve or get worse? (Yes, but usually not by much in a single season, and the older you get, the more "known" you are.)

 

 

I mean -- it's baseball, right? A game they've all been playing since they were kids.. and sure, there are people so good that they can play well at many positions. But if it's your job, I dunno -- there's also something to be said for consistently showing up and doing the same one thing well everyday (as Kimmi alluded to)... like Pedroia at second, Beltre at third, Belanger at short, etc. etc.

[moonslav59]

I mean -- it's baseball, right? A game they've all been playing since they were kids.. and sure, there are people so good that they can play well at many positions. But if it's your job, I dunno -- there's also something to be said for consistently showing up and doing the same one thing well everyday (as Kimmi alluded to)... like Pedroia at second, Beltre at third, Belanger at short, etc. etc.

 

I'm not sure what your point is.

 

On paper, it looks like our defense is bad.

 

We have hopes at a few positions where players are young and still learning and have room to grow, or have shown flashes of improvement.

 

I'd say, out of our starters, only Dalbec, Devers and Cordero are largely unknowns or have shows signs they can be plus, but have yet to do so for a full year or more, in Raphale's case.

 

Bogey, like Jeter, makes the plays hit right to him. He's solid on that, but his range is poor and very likely will never become a plus.

 

I don't want to get into Vaz, because I've beaten that horse to death several times, but he is pretty well known.

 

EHern has moved around so much, it's hard to know, for sure, just how good he is at just one position, and there is a wide gap between what his metrics show at 2B and Cora calling him "the best."

 

Arroyo is nothing special on D. I doubt he surprises, either way.

 

Verdugo moving to a new park makes it a little more interesting, but he's been a plys defender in the OF and has improved over the years to the point where I think he's a plus in RF and maybe a slight plus in CF.

 

Renfroe has shown he's about as average as average can get. He'd be better in LF than Fenway's spacious RF.

 

I'm not claiming to be an authority on this, and many of these guys have not been on the Sox very long, so I can certainly be wrong.

 

Do you think our defense is average or better?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not sure what your point is.

 

On paper, it looks like our defense is bad.

 

We have hopes at a few positions where players are young and still learning and have room to grow, or have shown flashes of improvement.

 

I'd say, out of our starters, only Dalbec, Devers and Cordero are largely unknowns or have shows signs they can be plus, but have yet to do so for a full year or more, in Raphale's case.

 

Bogey, like Jeter, makes the plays hit right to him. He's solid on that, but his range is poor and very likely will never become a plus.

 

I don't want to get into Vaz, because I've beaten that horse to death several times, but he is pretty well known.

 

EHern has moved around so much, it's hard to know, for sure, just how good he is at just one position, and there is a wide gap between what his metrics show at 2B and Cora calling him "the best."

 

Arroyo is nothing special on D. I doubt he surprises, either way.

 

Verdugo moving to a new park makes it a little more interesting, but he's been a plys defender in the OF and has improved over the years to the point where I think he's a plus in RF and maybe a slight plus in CF.

 

Renfroe has shown he's about as average as average can get. He'd be better in LF than Fenway's spacious RF.

 

I'm not claiming to be an authority on this, and many of these guys have not been on the Sox very long, so I can certainly be wrong.

 

Do you think our defense is average or better?

 

Right now it's still below average and here's why: a last-place team with below-average D opted to rebuild by recruiting versatile players who can play many infield or outfield positions (or both). Personally, if I'm seeking a path back to stability, I'd look to fill slots with steady players at each position. That may not be possible all at once because of availability and cost, plus a regular needs to show he can hit enough to start full-time, unless he's a Bradley who makes a good team better with just his glove (and they can live with his long slumps at bat).

 

But now that JBJ is gone, and if Verdugo -- our second-best defensive player from '20 -- has to play center, the team is not yet improved on D. Cora loves EHern at second, and maybe he'll lend better leather at that black hole from last year... except the plan is to move him around every game. Hopefully, at least the left side gets back in its groove under Cora's guidance.

[moonslav59]

Right now it's still below average and here's why: a last-place team with below-average D opted to rebuild by recruiting versatile players who can play many infield or outfield positions (or both). Personally, if I'm seeking a path back to stability, I'd look to fill slots with steady players at each position. That may not be possible all at once because of availability and cost, plus a regular needs to show he can hit enough to start full-time, unless he's a Bradley who makes a good team better with just his glove (and they can live with his long slumps at bat).

 

But now that JBJ is gone, and if Verdugo -- our second-best defensive player from '20 -- has to play center, the team is not yet improved on D. Cora loves EHern at second, and maybe he'll lend better leather at that black hole from last year... except the plan is to move him around every game. Hopefully, at least the left side gets back in its groove under Cora's guidance.

 

Oh, I understand how we got here, and I'm on board with the plan- both near term and long term.

 

As a fan, I love to watch great defense, especially at SS and CF, and somewhat for RF and 2B (3B).

 

If I could make one minor change, I'd have gone after Marisnick not Marwin.

 

If the team analytics guys like EHern on D at 2B, who am I to say they are wrong.

 

Renfroe is not bad on D, and Cordero has a ton of promise, so we didn't add anti-defense, but losing Betts and then JBJ hurts.

 

(I'm hopeful Devers goes back to improving on D.)

[mvp 78]

Verdugo, per UZR/150, was an average RFer in 2020. Park has to factor in here as Fenway's RF is immense. Coming in, year 1 and playing league average D in Fenway's RF is not easy. So he could be a plus over time. He is not a plus now. Thing is, he is not a minus either. Moving him to CF, where he was a minus with LAD, in Fenway is a good way to make him a big minus for 2021

 

I think he could be solid in RF. I am definitely not on board with the move to CF. Still have no clue why they didn't get a defensive guy for CF who you can have just hit 9th everyday and ignore.

[mvp 78]

I’m not worried about the catching. The issues are more likely to be the tracking.

 

But overall, the OF isn’t going to be the biggest issue defensively. We saw Verdugo last year. He won’t be Bradley in CF, but he won’t be Dwayne Hosey either. Renfroe’s metrics place him as an average RF. And Cordero’s metrics are weak but the sample sizes are way too small. Scouts have always liked his defense. But people who have never seen him play and fall back on the metrics might be disillusioned.

 

The infield defense is the greater concern...

 

Maybe? If Devers can go back to 2019 era defense, the infield should be fine, but underwhelming. I think the OF defense could get ugly. The last full season we saw, Betts and JBJ were in the OF. This will be a far cry from that.

[moonslav59]

Maybe? If Devers can go back to 2019 era defense, the infield should be fine, but underwhelming. I think the OF defense could get ugly. The last full season we saw, Betts and JBJ were in the OF. This will be a far cry from that.

 

I think a Renfore-Cordero platoon in LF could be better than Beni on D, but LF defense in Fenway is not a major concern, anyway.

 

Verdugo in RF is certainly is no Betts, but I think he will be fine, as well. (hopefully, he plays way more RF than CF.)

 

The big concern is CF. Cordero has the tools to be a plus out there, and EHern has shown he can be a plus there as well.

 

I think an OF like this, could be average or even better than average:

 

LF: mostly Renfroe with some Cordero & Marwin

CF: Cordero & EHern with some Verdugo

RF: mostly Verdugo with some Renfroe

 

It could end up being an overall minus, too.

 

To me, this almost guarantees a minus:

 

LF: Cordero & Gonzalez with some Renfroe

CF: mostly Verdugo with some EHern & Cordero

RF: mostly renfroe with some Verdugo

[mvp 78]

I agree. Current model of Duran wouldn't fix any defensive ills either. However, a mature Duran in CF, Verdugo in RF and Renfroe/Cordero in LF would be the best defensive unit they could put out there.

[moonslav59]

I agree. Current model of Duran wouldn't fix any defensive ills either. However, a mature Duran in CF, Verdugo in RF and Renfroe/Cordero in LF would be the best defensive unit they could put out there.

 

Lot's of defensive potential with Duran, Dalbec, Cordero and even still with Devers.

[harmony]

Verdugo in RF is certainly is no Betts, but I think he will be fine, as well. (hopefully, he plays way more RF than CF.)

Last year Alex Verdugo posted a UZR/1150 of 0.8 and a negative 1 Defensive Runs Saved over 246.2 innings in right field.

 

For his career Verdugo has posted 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a negative 5.0 UZR/150 over 463.2 innings in right field.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?position=OF#advanced-fielding

 

That represents a signficant dropoff from the defensive metrics of Mookie Betts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mookie-betts/13611/stats?position=OF#advanced-fielding

 

Verdugo could be a plus or minus in the outfield.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Last year Alex Verdugo posted a UZR/1150 of 0.8 and a negative 1 Defensive Runs Saved over 246.2 innings in right field.

 

For his career Verdugo has posted 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a negative 5.0 UZR/150 over 463.2 innings in right field.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-verdugo/17027/stats?position=OF#advanced-fielding

 

That represents a signficant dropoff from the defensive metrics of Mookie Betts:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mookie-betts/13611/stats?position=OF#advanced-fielding

 

Verdugo could be a plus or minus in the outfield.

 

Let's face it, at least qualitatively, anyone is a significant dropoff from Betts, who Showalter said is the best he's ever seen in right. But Verdugo hustles, he's fast enough and has a really strong arm -- all qualities needed to be a good rightfielder, especially in probably the toughest corner in the AL for half his games.

 

I would think the plan is to hang in there with moving parts and platoons until guys like Downs and Duran/Jimenez are ready to take over full-time. With most of the budget tied up the past two seasons, it makes sense not to spend large longterm in center and at second base when you have guys a year or two away from promotions at minimal cost.

[notin]

I agree. Current model of Duran wouldn't fix any defensive ills either. However, a mature Duran in CF, Verdugo in RF and Renfroe/Cordero in LF would be the best defensive unit they could put out there.

 

So Duran is a better CF than Cordero?

[mvp 78]

So Duran is a better CF than Cordero?

 

Not today, see "current model of Duran." Maybe someday? Cordero just can't stay on the field, so he'd be at least in a timeshare with someone else.

 

A healthy Cordero would probably be a fine CFer. He also has "interesting route running" per reports.

[moonslav59]

It's hard to know for sure, if Cordero is better than Duran on defense, but I'd guess yes, at this point in their development.

[moonslav59]

23 days to opening day!