A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Kiké definitely needs to contribute in a substantial way to earn that contract. His WRC+ needs to be at 100 or better. Otherwise, it just seems like a waste of money.

 

He's only topped that one time in his career. Now it was in the season when he had his career high in PA, but as it was only 2 PA higher than his second highest, and he only had 88 wRC+ then, it is not a given...

[mvp 78]

He's only topped that one time in his career. Now it was in the season when he had his career high in PA, but as it was only 2 PA higher than his second highest, and he only had 88 wRC+ then, it is not a given...

 

I know it's not a given. If he has two 90 WRC+ seasons, it will be an overpay. Bloom certainly thinks he's worth that amount.

[Bellhorn04]

I would much rather have JBJ at 12/2 than Kike at 14/2, and I'm not really down on Kike. I just can't see any way he's a better player, WAR-wise, than JBJ.

[mvp 78]

I would much rather have JBJ at 12/2 than Kike at 14/2, and I'm not really down on Kike. I just can't see any way he's a better player, WAR-wise, than JBJ.

 

I agree. JBJ would be everyday CFer. They could figure out 2B with Arroyo/Arauz/Chavis/Downs/other. I still don't quite know what the plan will be with the OF and 2B.

[moonslav59]

All the projections have the Yankees at least 10 games better than us, which is realistic.

 

I'd put them about the same. I said I'd rather have their rotation than ours, right now. My point was that Jacko acts like it's a forgone conclusion our rotation will suck, despite the fact that he is relying on more SP'ers with 0 IP in 2020 (3) or less than 50 IPs the last 2 years (5) than we are. It's entirely within reason, our rotation ends up being healthier and or better than theirs.

 

They kill us in the bullpen and defense.

 

I don't think they kill us on offense, like Jacko does, but I'm counting on JD to bounce back and Devers, Bogey & Verdugo to have huge years. Vaz has been at about .800 from 2019-2020 and that could blow away what the Yankee catcher does. Dalbec shows promise, but I would not project better offense from our 1B v theirs. Middle IF goes to the Yanks. 3B to the Sox. LF, depending on the health of some players and the wild card Cordero, who knows? I'd go Sox, because I like a Renfroe-Cordero platoon (if that's what ends up happening). Hicks has not been great, but who plays CF for the Sox? EHern> Hicks, Verdugo > Hicks, but Cordero

 

I think the Yanks score more than the Sox, but not by much. The Yanks led the AL in runs scored, last year, but as bad as things went for the Sox, they finished 5th in scoring (22 runs behind the Yanks or about 0.3 runs per game lower.) In 2019, the Yanks finished first, and the Sox 4th (41 runs behind or about 0.25 runs below.)

 

Who improved their offense?

 

Both are hoping for injured or low performing players to give more in 2021 than 2020 or 2019, but who added more new and promising players on offense only, as compared to who they lost?

 

Yanks added nobody and lost Gardner (maybe). Gardner was 8th in PAs for the Yanks at .747. Who gets his PAs? You can say Judge and Frazier and that should be a plus, but the Sox could say the same about Renfroe/Cordero over Beni.

 

The Sox added

EHern .749 since 2018

Renfroe .772 since 2018

Cordero .754 since 2018

Gonzalez .713 since 2018 (.771 since 2017-the trash can year)

 

Call me optimistic, but I like who we added on offense more than who we lost.

 

We lost:

 

JBJ (5th in PAs) .844 but much worse in 2019

Pillar (8th in PAs) .795

Peraza (9th) .617

Moreland (13th) 1.177 (79 PAs)

Lin (14th) .355

Beni (16th) .442

 

also, we should see much less PAs from...

Chavis (7th) .636

Arauz (12th) .644

 

and more from...

Dalbec (10th) .959

Arroyo (15th) .736

[notin]

I agree. JBJ would be everyday CFer. They could figure out 2B with Arroyo/Arauz/Chavis/Downs/other. I still don't quite know what the plan will be with the OF and 2B.

 

Bradley at 12/2 is also worth it because, if the Sox are out of it in July, he can be flipped to a contender in need of OF help. History does indicate that position players get lesser returns mid-season than pitchers. But that is no reason to not pursue him.

 

He would be good for fans, as he is a known commodity. And, let's face it, Boston has a bad reputation in some certain regards, and right now Bloom has purged this team of all it's African American players except Marcus Wilson, who might be next. While I have my doubts this is anything except a coincidence, it doesn't do much to help the reputation of the city and team...

[moonslav59]

I would much rather have JBJ at 12/2 than Kike at 14/2, and I'm not really down on Kike. I just can't see any way he's a better player, WAR-wise, than JBJ.

 

JBJ WAS a great defender. Kike is better now.

 

Are you taking JBJ because of his offense?

 

OPS+ since 2017:

JBJ: 89, 92, 90, 118 (which could be the outlier year?)

Kike: 92, 117, 87, 83 (also one outlier year, but not a short season)

 

All-in-all, pretty close on offense. Kiki 98/ JBJ 94 (2017-2020 combined)

 

I'll take EHern over 2017-2020 and certainly for 2021-2022. EHern is showing no signs of decline at age 29. JBJ turns 31 in 2 months.

 

(BTW, "favorite player" does not equate to best player.)

 

While Kike has been no great offensive player over the years, please don't think the 60 game 2020 JBJ is what his offense will be like over the next 2 years.

 

[moonslav59]

Bradley at 12/2 is also worth it because, if the Sox are out of it in July, he can be flipped to a contender in need of OF help. History does indicate that position players get lesser returns mid-season than pitchers. But that is no reason to not pursue him.

 

He would be good for fans, as he is a known commodity. And, let's face it, Boston has a bad reputation in some certain regards, and right now Bloom has purged this team of all it's African American players except Marcus Wilson, who might be next. While I have my doubts this is anything except a coincidence, it doesn't do much to help the reputation of the city and team...

 

The 2nd year might be prohibitive.

 

He can be flipped, if he's hitting .814 like 2020, yes, but who here, expects that?

 

What if he's hitting .714, like he was at the deadline in 2019?

 

How about .663 like 2018?

 

(That was when money was not so tight.)

[mvp 78]

Bradley at 12/2 is also worth it because, if the Sox are out of it in July, he can be flipped to a contender in need of OF help. History does indicate that position players get lesser returns mid-season than pitchers. But that is no reason to not pursue him.

 

He would be good for fans, as he is a known commodity. And, let's face it, Boston has a bad reputation in some certain regards, and right now Bloom has purged this team of all it's African American players except Marcus Wilson, who might be next. While I have my doubts this is anything except a coincidence, it doesn't do much to help the reputation of the city and team...

 

Could they REALLY flip him midseason? There aren't people lining up for him now.

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ WAS a great defender. Kike is better now.

 

Are you taking JBJ because of his offense?

 

OPS+ since 2017:

JBJ: 89, 92, 90, 118 (which could be the outlier year?)

Kike: 92, 117, 87, 83 (also one outlier year, but not a short season)

 

All-in-all, pretty close on offense. Kiki 98/ JBJ 94 (2017-2020 combined)

 

I'll take EHern over 2017-2020 and certainly for 2021-2022. EHern is showing no signs of decline at age 29. JBJ turns 31 in 2 months.

 

(BTW, "favorite player" does not equate to best player.)

 

While Kike has been no great offensive player over the years, please don't think the 60 game 2020 JBJ is what his offense will be like over the next 2 years.

 

 

I'm looking at career WAR, recent WAR and projected 2021 WAR. Those are about the only objective measurements.

[Bellhorn04]

Bradley at 12/2 is also worth it because, if the Sox are out of it in July, he can be flipped to a contender in need of OF help. History does indicate that position players get lesser returns mid-season than pitchers. But that is no reason to not pursue him.

 

He would be good for fans, as he is a known commodity. And, let's face it, Boston has a bad reputation in some certain regards, and right now Bloom has purged this team of all it's African American players except Marcus Wilson, who might be next. While I have my doubts this is anything except a coincidence, it doesn't do much to help the reputation of the city and team...

 

Jeter Downs.

[notin]

Jeter Downs.

 

OK. They do have one...

[notin]

Could they REALLY flip him midseason? There aren't people lining up for him now.

 

Things can change as the injuries pile up. The number of injured CF's around MLB right now is at a season-low...

[moonslav59]

I'm looking at career WAR, recent WAR and projected 2021 WAR. Those are about the only objective measurements.

 

JBJ was a full time player for much longer than EHern, and WAR rewards more playing time, bigly.

 

Can EHern give 650 PAs for 2 years in a row? I can't see why not, but he never has.

 

I see a better defensive CF'er in EHern.

 

I see even offense but maybe more consistency from EHern's offense. (His OPS+ has been better since 2017)

 

He can play 7 positions.

 

He's 1.5 years younger.

 

[mvp 78]

OK. They do have one...

 

When they get rid of Marcus Wilson, do you think there will be ulterior motives for it?

[mvp 78]

Things can change as the injuries pile up. The number of injured CF's around MLB right now is at a season-low...

 

What was JBJ's market last August? High?

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ was a full time player for much longer than EHern, and WAR rewards more playing time, bigly.

 

I know, but I also looked at WAR per game. I always try to do that now.

[moonslav59]

What was JBJ's market last August? High?

 

You'd think he'd have been traded, if anyone offered anything of value.

[mvp 78]

You'd think he'd have been traded, if anyone offered anything of value.

 

He would have been traded if someone agreed to take on 1/2 his contract and give a PTBNL.

[moonslav59]

I know, but I also looked at WAR per game. I always try to do that now.

 

What was the comp?

 

Career?

 

How about....

 

2015-2017?

 

Since 2018?

 

I also wonder if games played is an accurate divider by WAR, since EHern likely played many partial games.

 

I did get this from BBR

 

WAR per 650 PAs:

 

EHern:

0.9 (15-17)

4.1 (18-20)

 

JBJ:

5.2 (15-17)

3.1 (18-20)

 

The trends are clearly in EHern's favor.

 

[moonslav59]

He would have been traded if someone agreed to take on 1/2 his contract and give a PTBNL.

 

So, nobody wanted to pay him less than $1M for 1 month of JBJ + playoffs?

[mvp 78]

So, nobody wanted to pay him less than $1M for 1 month of JBJ + playoffs?

 

Seems like it?

[dgalehouse]

EHern is a decent , versatile player with a some right handed power that should play well at Fenway. I think he was a nice acquisition and will be useful. However, I cannot accept the idea that he is a better center fielder than JBJ , the analytics notwithstanding. I just don't see that.

[notin]

EHern is a decent , versatile player with a some right handed power that should play well at Fenway. I think he was a nice acquisition and will be useful. However, I cannot accept the idea that he is a better center fielder than JBJ , the analytics notwithstanding. I just don't see that.

 

I think it helps if you remember the analytics measure accomplishments, not ability. If Bradley got to fewer flyballs because Betts was already in position to take them, it did not help his analytics. It also did not mean JBJ was not going to get to them with a lesser RF out there...

[mvp 78]

EHern is a decent , versatile player with a some right handed power that should play well at Fenway. I think he was a nice acquisition and will be useful. However, I cannot accept the idea that he is a better center fielder than JBJ , the analytics notwithstanding. I just don't see that.

 

We'll only be able to judge for ourselves while watching him this year.

[mvp 78]

I think it helps if you remember the analytics measure accomplishments, not ability. If Bradley got to fewer flyballs because Betts was already in position to take them, it did not help his analytics. It also did not mean JBJ was not going to get to them with a lesser RF out there...

 

It is a decent point.

[Bellhorn04]

What was the comp?

 

Career?

 

How about....

 

2015-2017?

 

Since 2018?

 

I also wonder if games played is an accurate divider by WAR, since EHern likely played many partial games.

 

I did get this from BBR

 

WAR per 650 PAs:

 

EHern:

0.9 (15-17)

4.1 (18-20)

 

JBJ:

5.2 (15-17)

3.1 (18-20)

 

The trends are clearly in EHern's favor.

 

 

OK, now let's look at 2021 projections, which bake in all that history.

 

Kike

Depth Charts 427 PA/0.9 WAR

Steamer 405/1.3

ZiPS 436/0.6

Avg 423/.93

Per 650 PA 1.44

 

JBJ

Depth Charts 553 PA/1.4 WAR

Steamer 504/1.1

ZiPS 525/1.5

Avg 527/1.33

Per 650 PA 1.64

 

Based on projections, JBJ at 12/2 is the better deal.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It is a decent point.

 

Betts' range and Fenway's relatively small centerfield territory have both been mentioned in the industry for reasons why JBJ's metrics don't rate him higher among peers. Also, since this is the realistic thread: if EHern was as good as Jackie in center, he would've been a regular centerfielder in the majors somewhere -- if not LA, then for another club willing to trade value for him.

 

Kike has been in the bigs since age 22, and to say he's developed into a better centerfielder now at age 28 contradicts (to me) that a Gold Glover like JBJ has developed into a worse centerfielder at 30... worse, that is, than a guy who's never played there fulltime.

[mvp 78]

OK, now let's look at 2021 projections, which bake in all that history.

 

Kike

Depth Charts 427 PA/0.9 WAR

Steamer 405/1.3

ZiPS 436/0.6

Avg 423/.93

Per 650 PA 1.44

 

JBJ

Depth Charts 553 PA/1.4 WAR

Steamer 504/1.1

ZiPS 525/1.5

Avg 527/1.33

Per 650 PA 1.64

 

Based on projections, JBJ at 12/2 is the better deal.

 

The only difference is versatility. Kiké can play 2B/LF/RF if the Sox have a guy that can take over in CF. JBJ is OF only.

 

I still think JBJ is a good value at that amount and Kiké is an overpay. I like the signing of Kiké, it does seem a little high though.

[Bellhorn04]

The only difference is versatility. Kiké can play 2B/LF/RF if the Sox have a guy that can take over in CF. JBJ is OF only.

 

I still think JBJ is a good value at that amount and Kiké is an overpay. I like the signing of Kiké, it does seem a little high though.

 

Yeah, Kike feels like a small overpay. I think 12/2 would be about right for him, so it's hardly worth quibbling about. Bloom obviously likes him and was willing to step it up a bit. Fine with me.