A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Cora says Kiké Hernandez will move around during games and that he's a plus defender in all 3 OF spots and 2B. "That's the beauty of the team this year, being very versatile and moving people around."

[Swiharts Ghost]

@ChrisCotillo

Cora says Kiké Hernandez will move around during games and that he's a plus defender in all 3 OF spots and 2B. "That's the beauty of the team this year, being very versatile and moving people around."

 

Looking at Duran’s numbers closer that have been pumped up or overstated in reality kid is a bench player at best ..kids not who the media is pumping up for future of CF at Fenway .Duran has good speed good tracking and virtually no power and low average .I really do hope we get JBJ back two years with 3rd year option 7 first year 8 next with 5 option year .

Edited February 18, 2021 by Swiharts Ghost

[mvp 78]

Looking at Duran’s numbers closer that have been pumped up or overstated in reality kid is a bench player at best ..kids not who the media is pumping up for future of CF at Fenway .Duran has good speed good tracking and virtually no power and low average .I really do hope we get JBJ back two years with 3rd year option 7 first year 8 next with 5 option year .

 

He changed his swing to get more lift in 2020. Scouting reports have stated that he's hitting the ball in the air more. We'll have to see what the results look like this year.

[moonslav59]

@ChrisCotillo

Cora says Kiké Hernandez will move around during games and that he's a plus defender in all 3 OF spots and 2B. "That's the beauty of the team this year, being very versatile and moving people around."

 

The metrics show he is minus at 2B, and the sample size is about large enough to matter. They also show he is way better in CF than anyone we've got and better that JBJ his last 2 seasons.

 

If we can trust 2B to Arroyo, Chavis, Munoz, Arauz, then fine. We don't have much budget space to add a 2Bman, anyway, if we want to bolster our pitching staff now or at the deadline.

 

We could always PH Renfroe or Cordero late in the game and move EHern to 2B, and slide OF'ers around to fill CF with Cordero or Verdugo.

 

Kiki's Career UZR/150 and DRS

2B: -6.2 1263 innings (-26.9 in 2020 in 220 innings) +18 DRS

CF: +8.4 in 1109 innings/ +4 DRS

LF: +18.0 in 603 innings/ +14 DRS

RF: +11.9 in 343 innings/ +3 DRS

OF: +12.0 in 2055 innings/ +21 DRS

 

136 MLB OF'ers with 2,000+ innings since 2014:

UZR/150

16.0 Kiermaier

15.8 H Bader

14.8 J Dyson

14.4 M Betts

13.4 A Judge

12.0 E Hernandez 21 DRS/2055 innings

11.6 B Hamilton

10.2 L Cain

10.2 J Gallo

10.1 B Buxton

9.1 L Martin

9.0 A Gordon

8.0 J Marisnick

7.4 J Lagares

7.3 JBJ 55 DRS in 7167 innings

7.3 E Inciarte

 

Now, look at 2019-2020

(175 OF'ers with 300+ innings)

 

6. Hernandez +17.3

13. Betts +14.0

80. JBJ +0.4

 

Just say no to JBJ. He gave us some great years of defense and some very good hitting in spurts- some extended, some not so extended.

 

 

[Elktonnick]

Here is an interesting item to chew on: Extremely interesting article on pitching, today, in of all places the Wall St Journal. The basic premise of the article is that due to several factors not the least of which was the short season last year, major league clubs and their GMs are worried about pitcher durability in 2021. The major conclusion of the article is that pitching depth not pitching strength will be the overriding factor in a teams success this year. Simply put the conclusion is that it won't be the team with the best two or three pitchers but rather the team with the most good pitchers that will be successful in 21.

[mvp 78]

Here is an interesting item to chew on: Extremely interesting article on pitching, today, in of all places the Wall St Journal. The basic premise of the article is that due to several factors not the least of which was the short season last year, major league clubs and their GMs are worried about pitcher durability in 2021. The major conclusion of the article is that pitching depth not pitching strength will be the overriding factor in a teams success this year. Simply put the conclusion is that it won't be the team with the best two or three pitchers but rather the team with the most good pitchers that will be successful in 21.

 

I buy it. There are many big unknowns going into this year.

 

How does pitching hold up after a weird 2020?

 

What about the prospect pipeline for guys who got no reps in 2020?

 

Will there be cancelled games again in 2021?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I buy it. There are many big unknowns going into this year.

 

How does pitching hold up after a weird 2020?

 

What about the prospect pipeline for guys who got no reps in 2020?

 

Will there be cancelled games again in 2021?

 

We already have a cancelled player and ST's just begun...

 

Teams aren't going to risk pushing full returns on guys like ERod in the beginning, or probably throughout the entire first half. Pitching depth will be more of a factor than ever, most likely with younger arms bouncing back faster than older vets who opted out in '20; for example, Kopech should be better than Price or King Felix.

 

As always, the best teams may just be those lucky or crafty enough to receive break-out seasons by pleasant surprises on the mound -- like a Sixto Sanchez starting or a Devin Williams relieving. Do the Sox have any of those candidates this year?

[Swiharts Ghost]

I buy it. There are many big unknowns going into this year.

 

How does pitching hold up after a weird 2020?

 

What about the prospect pipeline for guys who got no reps in 2020?

 

Will there be cancelled games again in 2021?

 

Well said .

[Swiharts Ghost]

The metrics show he is minus at 2B, and the sample size is about large enough to matter. They also show he is way better in CF than anyone we've got and better that JBJ his last 2 seasons.

 

If we can trust 2B to Arroyo, Chavis, Munoz, Arauz, then fine. We don't have much budget space to add a 2Bman, anyway, if we want to bolster our pitching staff now or at the deadline.

 

We could always PH Renfroe or Cordero late in the game and move EHern to 2B, and slide OF'ers around to fill CF with Cordero or Verdugo.

 

Kiki's Career UZR/150 and DRS

2B: -6.2 1263 innings (-26.9 in 2020 in 220 innings) +18 DRS

CF: +8.4 in 1109 innings/ +4 DRS

LF: +18.0 in 603 innings/ +14 DRS

RF: +11.9 in 343 innings/ +3 DRS

OF: +12.0 in 2055 innings/ +21 DRS

 

136 MLB OF'ers with 2,000+ innings since 2014:

UZR/150

16.0 Kiermaier

15.8 H Bader

14.8 J Dyson

14.4 M Betts

13.4 A Judge

12.0 E Hernandez 21 DRS/2055 innings

11.6 B Hamilton

10.2 L Cain

10.2 J Gallo

10.1 B Buxton

9.1 L Martin

9.0 A Gordon

8.0 J Marisnick

7.4 J Lagares

7.3 JBJ 55 DRS in 7167 innings

7.3 E Inciarte

 

Now, look at 2019-2020

(175 OF'ers with 300+ innings)

 

6. Hernandez +17.3

13. Betts +14.0

80. JBJ +0.4

 

Just say no to JBJ. He gave us some great years of defense and some very good hitting in spurts- some extended, some not so extended.

 

 

 

I agree with just about everything you post atleast a 75 percent clip with that said .Fenway park is a whole different animal and you know this ...the dimensions the shear size covered .JBJ I can safely say is likely the better option .i am Not slighting Him he’s a terrific OF .

Edited February 18, 2021 by Swiharts Ghost

[moonslav59]

I agree with just about everything you post atleast a 75 percent clip with that said .Fenway park is a whole different animal and you know this ...the dimensions the shear size covered .JBJ I can safely say is likely the better option .i am Not slighting Him he’s a terrific OF .

 

He WAS- not IS.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He WAS- not IS.

 

While I'm not advocating a multi-year for JBJ -- and would be beyond shocked (more irked, since Bloom avoided multi-years for a lot of "better" all-arounders at many positions this winter) -- he remains an elite defender. I'm sure there are stats that show Bradley isn't as good as many other centerfielders -- he also had a 1.000 fielding % and finished in the 99th percentile in outs above average in '20 -- but none of those matter much to me. When a longball off the bat is launched and Jackie starts jogging, you know he's got it.

 

JBJ is the best the Sox have had out there in half a century -- according to Fred Lynn -- and whether he's lost a step or a few mph off his cannon, he's still only 30. An artisan doesn't forget how to do his forte in his prime. His skills can still help a good team become a great team, and just like with Mookie, we will be watching replays (at least) of future highlights for years to come... because defense wins championships.

[dgalehouse]

I still think the Sox will sign JBJ . If they don't , Bloom will have gotten rid of all three members of our championship outfield. The rare reverse trifecta.

[notin]

I still think the Sox will sign JBJ . If they don't , Bloom will have gotten rid of all three members of our championship outfield. The rare reverse trifecta.

 

He did bring Bradley back last year at a pretty good saalry despite trying to pare a lot of money off the payroll. The same thing could happen this year and Bradley appears to be running out of options.

 

If/once Houston bails, I expect Bradley back in Boston...

[moonslav59]

While I'm not advocating a multi-year for JBJ -- and would be beyond shocked (more irked, since Bloom avoided multi-years for a lot of "better" all-arounders at many positions this winter) -- he remains an elite defender. I'm sure there are stats that show Bradley isn't as good as many other centerfielders -- he also had a 1.000 fielding % and finished in the 99th percentile in outs above average in '20 -- but none of those matter much to me. When a longball off the bat is launched and Jackie starts jogging, you know he's got it.

 

JBJ is the best the Sox have had out there in half a century -- according to Fred Lynn -- and whether he's lost a step or a few mph off his cannon, he's still only 30. An artisan doesn't forget how to do his forte in his prime. His skills can still help a good team become a great team, and just like with Mookie, we will be watching replays (at least) of future highlights for years to come... because defense wins championships.

 

IMO, he is not "elite" anymore. He was, once, but not any more.

 

As for highlights, JBJ was actually never all the flashy. He had a great first step, instincts and precise routes to where the ball was going. He wasn't about making diving plays all that often.

 

Sure he had some great plays, especially in the triangle in CF.

 

Nobody is saying he's below average. He still has plus range and a plus arm, but he's lost a step. He's not the same defender he was from 2013-2018.

 

It's not just the metrics that have convinced me of his decline, but these sample sizes are clearly large enough to stand on their own. (I even threw 2018 into JBJ's more recent numbers.)

 

JBJ

2014-2017 +8.8 UZR/150 and +47 DRS in 3753 innings

2018-2020 +3.4 UZR/150 and +2 DRS in 2855 innings

 

He's only getting older and slower.

 

This in no way takes away from his greatness in CF while on the Sox. He was my favorite Sox player since 2013. He's not worth $12M/2 and probably won't take that, even if we offered it.

 

 

 

[notin]

IMO, he is not "elite" anymore. He was, once, but not any more.

 

As for highlights, JBJ was actually never all the flashy. He had a great first step, instincts and precise routes to where the ball was going. He wasn't about making diving plays all that often.

 

Sure he had some great plays, especially in the triangle in CF.

 

Nobody is saying he's below average. He still has plus range and a plus arm, but he's lost a step. He's not the same defender he was from 2013-2018.

 

It's not just the metrics that have convinced me of his decline, but these sample sizes are clearly large enough to stand on their own. (I even threw 2018 into JBJ's more recent numbers.)

 

JBJ

2014-2017 +8.8 UZR/150 and +47 DRS in 3753 innings

2018-2020 +3.4 UZR/150 and +2 DRS in 2855 innings

 

He's only getting older and slower.

 

This in no way takes away from his greatness in CF while on the Sox. He was my favorite Sox player since 2013. He's not worth $12M/2 and probably won't take that, even if we offered it.

 

 

 

 

Bradley may not be elite any more, but he is elite compared to the scrap heap of free agent outfielders left that remain.

 

Unless you like some Yasiel Puig...

[mvp 78]

Bradley may not be elite any more, but he is elite compared to the scrap heap of free agent outfielders left that remain.

 

Unless you like some Yasiel Puig...

And maybe he could break in Duran and provide some good tips.

[moonslav59]

Bradley may not be elite any more, but he is elite compared to the scrap heap of free agent outfielders left that remain.

 

Unless you like some Yasiel Puig...

 

Again, I'm driving the EHern for CF bandwagon.

 

Also, trading for a CF'er or 2Bman is an option, right?

 

Maybe 2-3 PTBNL for one?

 

Is Jarrod Dyson still unsigned?

 

He's still a plus defender even at his advanced age.

 

[moonslav59]

And maybe he could break in Duran and provide some good tips.

 

$12M/2 for a CF coach?

 

No thanks.

[notin]

And maybe he could break in Duran and provide some good tips.

 

Puig? Not a good idea...

[moonslav59]

Puig? Not a good idea...

 

I'm thinking we want $2-3M for the deadline, so we have $2-3M to spend, now. Will he sign for that?

 

I guess we can go over a bit and become sellers at the deadline, but it might get too complex with the summer decision, if we are close to being playoff bound.

 

If you think fans are pissed, now. Imagine us being 4 games behind the wild card slot at the deadline and selling off contracts to stay under the tax line.

[mvp 78]

$12M/2 for a CF coach?

 

No thanks.

 

Ok, but why weren’t you saying this about JBJ last year?

[moonslav59]

Ok, but why weren’t you saying this about JBJ last year?

 

Actually, I was saying he wasn't worth the money he got, last year.

 

We reset, so it didn't matter all that much.

 

Signing him now, and going over the line, is not worth it, and I'm talking $5.5M/1. He's going to get even more.

 

Now, if we trade some salary, somehow, and can stay under while signing him for $12M/2, I guess I'd be "okay" again, but who are we trading and how do we fill that hole?

 

(He's also a year older, now.)

[jacksonianmarch]

You also have Boone, so subtract a few points...

 

You have a point

[moonslav59]

We keep hearing how Paxton and Happ did nothing for the Yanks in the 60 game 2020 season where the Yanks went 6 gamesover .500.

 

How are these guys improvements over Tanaka, Paxton & Happ, but when we talk Sox questionable starters, it's all about their recent history or injury history?

 

2020 Yankee Numbers:

0 IP Severino (12 IP in 2019)

1 IP Kluber (36 IP in 2019)

0 IP Taillon (37 IP in 2019)

44 IP 5.11 ERA Montgomery (4 IP in 2019)

34 IP 4.98 ERA Garcia

27 IP 7.76 ERA King

0 IP German

 

Look, I'm not saying I like our rotation better than the Yanks, but let's be consistent with our criteria of placing value on the SP'ers.

 

Is it really obvious the above SP'er will be an improvement over 3 of the top 4-5 innings eaters on the Yanks from 2019-2020

Tanaka 230 IP 4.27 ERA (104 ERA+)

JA Happ 211 IP 4.57 ERA (97 ERA+)

Paxton 171 IP 4.16 ERA (107 ERA+)

 

2018-2020?

JA Happ 388 IP 4.15 ERA (105 ERA+) part of 2018 w TOR

Tanaka 386 IP 4.06 (107 ERA+)

Paxton 331 IP 3.97 (108 ERA+) 2018 w SEA

 

Then, there is Stanton playing 41 games and Judge playing 130 games from 2019-2020.

 

There is a very very significant chance the Yanks did not get better, this winter. Of course, they might, but they have as many question marks or more than the Sox do.

[Bellhorn04]

This in no way takes away from his greatness in CF while on the Sox. He was my favorite Sox player since 2013. He's not worth $12M/2 and probably won't take that, even if we offered it.

 

 

I don't think I've ever seen anyone harder on their favorite player.

 

Let me ask this - which of these represents a bigger overpay to you, and why?

 

Kike Hernandez 14/2

JBJ 12/2

Edited February 19, 2021 by Bellhorn04

[Bellhorn04]

There is a very very significant chance the Yanks did not get better, this winter. Of course, they might, but they have as many question marks or more than the Sox do.

 

All the projections have the Yankees at least 10 games better than us, which is realistic.

[mvp 78]

All the projections have the Yankees at least 10 games better than us, which is realistic.

 

That sounds about right. I think the Yankees will be in the mid 90's and the Sox will be in the mid 80's. It seems like the most likely outcome.

[notin]

I'm thinking we want $2-3M for the deadline, so we have $2-3M to spend, now. Will he sign for that?

 

I guess we can go over a bit and become sellers at the deadline, but it might get too complex with the summer decision, if we are close to being playoff bound.

 

If you think fans are pissed, now. Imagine us being 4 games behind the wild card slot at the deadline and selling off contracts to stay under the tax line.

 

Monetarily I have no idea about Puig. But if you want him to mentor Duran, I am all against it...

[moonslav59]

I don't think I've ever seen anyone harder on their favorite player.

 

Let me ask this - which of these represents a bigger overpay to you, and why?

 

Kike Hernandez 14/2

JBJ 12/2

 

I thought we paid too much for EHern, when you compare him to what Wong and C Hernandez got. I also thought we overpaid for Richards and Ottavino, but with only 1 year deals, I'm not going to raise a big stink.

 

Back to EHern v JBJ. EHern looks to be a better defensive CF'er than JBJ, right now and over the last 2-3 years. If we use him mostly at our high-need area, 2B, we waste that value, but being able to play 7-8 positions does add value. Since our 2B and CF positions are still our weakest non pitching positions, EHern's flexibility really is a big advantage. He can start in CF, then move to 2B as Renfroe or Cordero PH for Arroyo.

 

2-3 years ago, I'd have taken JBJ over EHern.

 

Now, EHern, even at $14M/2 is a better deal than JBJ at $12M/2, and we're not even sure JBJ will go that low.

 

I will never forget what JBJ did for us, but the reality is, he's not the same JBJ anymore,IMO. Maybe 2020 is a sign he will have a resurgence, late in his career, but due to the up and down nature of his career, more offensively than defensively, though he did seem to go up and down in UZR/150 almost year-to-year, I'm not being sold on the 2020 numbers vs the 2017-2019 numbers- a much larger sample size.

 

I wish him the best. He was my favorite player for 7-8 years. He's not worth going over the Tax for. Had we signed him first at $12M/2, I'd be saying that same about whoever our most recent signee had been, since none of these guys look like world beaters or must-haves.

 

[mvp 78]

Kiké definitely needs to contribute in a substantial way to earn that contract. His WRC+ needs to be at 100 or better. Otherwise, it just seems like a waste of money.