A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Elktonnick]

There is an interesting development out of Baltimore which is indicative of the tough financial issues facing some franchises. According to the Athletic "In a highly unusual and potentially alarming example of slashing expenses this winter, the Orioles asked two arbitration-eligible players to accept deferrals of a portion of their one-year salaries so the full amounts wouldn’t be on the 2021 ledger, according to multiple industry sources." In addition the Orioles had previously furloughed some 50 front office personnel and MASN the Orioles regional sports network has yesterday fired its entire pre pandemic broadcast personnel including long time employees Jim Hunter, Rick Dempsey and Tom Davis. In addition MASN will no longer broadcast the half hour pre game and post game for both the Nationals and Orioles. Commenting on MLB radio Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette observed that issues may be peculiar to the O's and Angelus's stewardship of the franchise (worst owner in baseball IMO) and his feud with the Nationals (Orioles lost an 100 million dollar lawsuit with the Nats over broadcast rights) but it also showed how difficult managing a baseball team in the pandemic can be.

 

Both Bowden and Duquette advocated MLB forcing Angelos to sell the team.

[moonslav59]

To bad the O's have so few good players to "raid."

[harmony]

What is this " baseball trade values " site anyway? Is it a panel of " experts" in baseball deals? Future G.M.s ? Mensa candidates? Or is it just a couple of pencil neck geeks , with a ton of college debt , trying to make a few bucks with their computer?

Read up:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/background/

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/history/

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers/

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-minor-leaguers/

 

Baseball Trade Values does quantitatively what we for years have tried to do qualitatively. BTV is not the final word but it's a good place to start the discussion.

 

Or not.

Edited January 24, 2021 by harmony

[harmony]

Steamer and ZIPS are pulling numbers out of their ass since he was hurt from mid 19 through all of 20. Taillon, if he can stay healthy, is a 3+ WAR starter. And getting away from Pittsburgh lends the chance he becomes something more. It wasn’t that long ago that a guy with huge stuff just off TJS left Pitt and became one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball. Taillon has that level of potential

From where should your numbers be pulled?

[notin]

To bad the O's have so few good players to "raid."

 

I’d love to get John Means from them...

[moonslav59]

I’d love to get John Means from them...

 

Santander, too.

 

Maybe if we took Cobb off their hands, they'd not want too much back.

 

Downs, Ward, Chavis & Pivetta for Means, Santander & Cobb was accepted by BTV.

[Kimmi]

Rick Porcello.

 

Seriously.

 

Seriously.

 

I have been on the Rick Porcello bandwagon since he was acquired by the Red Sox. I wanted the Sox to re-sign him last year and was disappointed when they didn't.

[Kimmi]

Agreed, but the major priority- SP'er- has been filled, and not quite to my expectations, despite the high upside of Richards.

 

Here is what I think we will do next:

 

1) Trade Beni for prospects or a RP'er of CF'er (see #2 and #3).

2) Acquire a RP'er- hopefully no worse than Colome.

3) Aquire a CF'er- maybe someone like Pillar.

4) Aquire OF depth- maybe someone like Marisnick, especially if we trade Beni for anything except an OF'er.

 

Only the closer-type RP'er could get very costly. According to cots, we are about $14M under the luxury line, but we don't know if there is a directive to stay below or near the line. If we trade Beni for a min wage player(s) of prospects, we'd have about $20M to spend, in theory.

 

That may be barely enough to sign JBJ, Colome & Marisnick. We may decide to sign Pillar, Colome and Marisnick and have something to spend at the deadline, if needed.

 

I still think our roatation and closer slot are our weakest links, right now, but I think we are done adding any SP'ers beyond minor league depth. Closer is #1, right now, IMO.

 

 

I have no idea what other additions Bloom is looking into. I'm not sure if he's done with starting pitching or not. I'm also not sure whether he's done with CF or not. He may add another starter, then use some of the depth in the pen.

 

I don't see JBJ being re-signed. I think he'll get far better offers elsewhere. Maybe Pillar?

[Kimmi]

???

 

The automated Baseball Trade Values calculation concluded the Yankees made a "major overpay" in the trade.

 

LOL Not that I put a lot of stock into that site, but this is funny.

 

This is a high risk move for the Yankees. I think it's a good get for the Yankees, but it's far from being a Cashman ripoff.

[harmony]

Santander, too.

 

Maybe if we took Cobb off their hands, they'd not want too much back.

 

Downs, Ward, Chavis & Pivetta for Means, Santander & Cobb was accepted by BTV.

Alex Cobb is owed $15 million in 2021 (with an AAV of $14.25 million) while Anthony Santander is projected to earn between $1.7 million and $3 million. Are those the players the Red Sox want to approach the luxury tax threshold?

[moonslav59]

Alex Cobb is owed $15 million in 2021 (with an AAV of $14.25 million) while Anthony Santander is projected to earn between $1.7 million and $3 million. Are those the players the Red Sox want to approach the luxury tax threshold?

 

You forgot Means, and with him, YES!

 

Cobb is done after one year.

 

(Getting Santander allows us to trade Beni for a no cost player or prospect and be fine on the lux tax.)

Edited January 24, 2021 by moonslav59

[jacksonianmarch]

From where should your numbers be pulled?

 

From his prior performances. His last two healthy years were 3+ war. He had an injury that players recover from over 90% of the time. It’ll either be zero or back to 3+. Assuming he’s just gonna be a Porcello is a farce

[Bellhorn04]

From his prior performances. His last two healthy years were 3+ war. He had an injury that players recover from over 90% of the time. It’ll either be zero or back to 3+. Assuming he’s just gonna be a Porcello is a farce

 

If he's either going to be zero or 3+, then a projection of 1.6-1.8 makes sense. Maybe he gives you half a season pitching like a 3+.

 

Porcello is much more likely to pitch a whole season.

 

It's all guesswork, needless to say.

[moonslav59]

Finish the winter with...

 

Trade Beni to SF for Ryes Moronta (RP with 4 years of team control).

 

Sign Colome.

 

Sign Pillar.

 

Sign Marisnick.

 

The healthy 26:

 

Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Richards, Perez, Pivetta (IL Sale>Brice/ IL ERod>Houck/Andriese)

Colome, Moronta, Barnes, Brasier, D Hern, Taylor, Whitlock

Vaz, Plawecki

Dalbec

Hernandez, Arroyo

Devers

Bogaerts

Renfroe, Martinez (DH)

Pillar, Marisnick

Verdugo

 

Meaningful farmhands:

Houck, Mata, Seabold, Mazza

Andriese, Valdez, Brewer, Bazardo

Pereda

Ockimey

Downs

Arauz

Munoz

Puello

Duran

Gettys

Edited January 25, 2021 by moonslav59

[harmony]

From his prior performances. His last two healthy years were 3+ war. He had an injury that players recover from over 90% of the time. It’ll either be zero or back to 3+. Assuming he’s just gonna be a Porcello is a farce

We all hope Jameson Taillon fully recovers but in this MLB interview six years ago Dr. James Andrews stated: "Most studies have concluded that 70-80% of pitchers return to their previous level of competition following surgery assuming that they follow rehab protocols."

 

Regarding a second surgery: "The rehabilitation takes longer and the success rate of return to pitching is not as good as with the first Tommy John surgery."

 

MLB | Pitch Smart | FAQ | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Dr. Andrews answers frequent questions related to Tommy John surgery

 

Perhaps the recovery rates have improved.

 

Or not.

 

Two months ago San Diego beat reporter Kevin Acee wrote in a piece about Mike Clevinger: "Of the 42 major league pitchers who have had two Tommy John surgeries, the majority did not pitch in the majors again after their second or fared poorly over a short period. But many of those pitchers were well into their 30s at the time of the second surgery."

 

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-11-17/padres-second-tommy-john-surgery-mike-clevinger-nathan-eovaldi

[notin]

From his prior performances. His last two healthy years were 3+ war. He had an injury that players recover from over 90% of the time. It’ll either be zero or back to 3+. Assuming he’s just gonna be a Porcello is a farce

 

If Taillon was “gonna be a Porcello”, he wouldn’t be recovering from an injury in the first place...

[notin]

We all hope Jameson Taillon fully recovers but in this MLB interview six years ago Dr. James Andrews stated: "Most studies have concluded that 70-80% of pitchers return to their previous level of competition following surgery assuming that they follow rehab protocols."

 

Regarding a second surgery: "The rehabilitation takes longer and the success rate of return to pitching is not as good as with the first Tommy John surgery."

 

MLB | Pitch Smart | FAQ | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

---

Dr. Andrews answers frequent questions related to Tommy John surgery

 

Perhaps the recovery rates have improved.

 

Or not.

 

Last month San Diego beat reporter Kevin Acee wrote in a piece about Mike Clevinger: "Of the 42 major league pitchers who have had two Tommy John surgeries, the majority did not pitch in the majors again after their second or fared poorly over a short period. But many of those pitchers were well into their 30s at the time of the second surgery."

 

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2020-11-17/padres-second-tommy-john-surgery-mike-clevinger-nathan-eovaldi

 

Think Jarrod Parker, a mega-talented pitcher whose career was derailed due to requiring the surgery so many times that a case could be made for renaming it Jarrod Parker Surgery...

Edited January 25, 2021 by notin

[notin]

What is this " baseball trade values " site anyway? Is it a panel of " experts" in baseball deals? Future G.M.s ? Mensa candidates? Or is it just a couple of pencil neck geeks , with a ton of college debt , trying to make a few bucks with their computer?

 

It’s a simple site that compares future values of players based on projected performance and salary. It’s a simple model, and basically it says “the more money a player makes, the harder he is to trade.” Not sure why so many try to criticize this simple model and think they have better ones. Teams themselves undoubtedly have their own models, but I bet they don’t function all that much differently...

[moonslav59]

Here is an interesting data bunch:

 

Best Back-to-back seasons since 2014:

 

W-L ERA/WHIP (ERA+)

29-12 2.56/0.924 (175) C Sale (12.9 bWAR)

32-11 3.81/1.303 (122) E Rod (8.8 bWAR)

28-16 3.18/1.149 (116) Richards (6.4 bWAR)

23-11 4.45/1.387 (94) Eovaldi (3.6 bWAR)

 

36-13 2.71/0.965 (167) C Kluber (9.8 bWAR)

35-10 2.68/0.962 (164) G Cole (8.5 bWAR)

22-17 3.71/1.303 (109) Taillon (6.1 bWAR)

11-7 3.84/1.248 (116) Montgomery (3.4 bWAR)

[moonslav59]

Only pitchers on the Sox & Yanks for 2021:

 

7.6 Sale 2017

7.3 Cole 2019

7.2 Kluber 2017

7.2 Kluber 2014

6.2 Sale 2018

5.8 Cole 2018

5.6 Sale 2015

5.6 Kluber 2015

5.5 Kluber 2018

5.4 Severino 2018

5.3 Sale 2016

5.1 Cole 2015

5.0 Sale 2014

4.9 Kluber 2016

4.8 Sale 2013

4.7 Sale 2012

4.3 Richards 2014

3.9 Taillon 2018

3.7 ERod 2019

3.6 Sale 2019

3.3 Eovaldi 2014

3.2 Eovaldi 2015

3.2 Taillon 2017

 

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is an interesting data bunch:

 

Best Back-to-back seasons since 2014:

 

W-L ERA/WHIP (ERA+)

29-12 2.56/0.924 (175) C Sale (12.9 bWAR)

32-11 3.81/1.303 (122) E Rod (8.8 bWAR)

28-16 3.18/1.149 (116) Richards (6.4 bWAR)

23-11 4.45/1.387 (94) Eovaldi (3.6 bWAR)

 

36-13 2.71/0.965 (167) C Kluber (9.8 bWAR)

35-10 2.68/0.962 (164) G Cole (8.5 bWAR)

22-17 3.71/1.303 (109) Taillon (6.1 bWAR)

11-7 3.84/1.248 (116) Montgomery (3.4 bWAR)

 

You included Sale but forgot Sevy

[moonslav59]

You included Sale but forgot Sevy

 

Minor omission, LOL.

 

Best Back-to-back seasons since 2014:

 

W-L ERA/WHIP (ERA+)

29-12 2.56/0.924 (175) C Sale (12.9 bWAR)

32-11 3.81/1.303 (122) E Rod (8.8 bWAR)

28-16 3.18/1.149 (116) Richards (6.4 bWAR)

23-11 4.45/1.387 (94) Eovaldi (3.6 bWAR)

 

36-13 2.71/0.965 (167) C Kluber (9.8 bWAR)

33-14 3.18/1.092 (137) Severino (9.5 bWAR)

35-10 2.68/0.962 (164) G Cole (8.5 bWAR)

22-17 3.71/1.303 (109) Taillon (6.1 bWAR)

[moonslav59]

It looks like we are currently $14.5M under the "tax line."

 

We may decide to keep some in reserve for the deadline, or maybe we are okay with going over by a little, but let's assume we have $14M to spend this winter. How would you spend it?

 

Would you trade Beni for a cheap CF'er, pitcher or prospects to free up another $6M? If yes, you have $20M to spend and maybe one open slot filled.

 

Here are some possible available players at areas we may want to fill and their projected cost by MLBTR:

 

Closer:

$7M x 2 Rosenthal

$6M x 1 Colome

 

OF:

$17M x 4 Ozuna (trade Beni)

$8M x 2 JBJ

$4M x 1 Pillar or Gardner

$2M x 1 Marisnick or

 

 

RP:

$4M x 1 Melancon

 

SP:

$13M x 3 Odorizzi

$10M x 1 Paxton

$8M x 2 Walker

$6M x 1 Wainwright

$5M x 1 Porcello

$4M x 1 C Hamels or C Archer

 

2B (Kike to CF/Utility):

$14M x 1 Semien

$8M x 2 K Wong

$7M x 2 La Stella

$6M x 1 C Hernandez

 

1B:

$2M x 1 Moreland

 

My choices:

 

$14M: $6 Colome, $4M Pillar & $4M Melancon

 

$20M: $10M Paxton, $6M Colome & $4M Pillar

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Sox add Ottavino & $8M.

 

MLBTR...

 

“it appears” the Red Sox are taking on Ottavino’s $8MM salary and a deferred $3MM signing bonus that is due to be paid out in 2022. In doing so, they’ll effectively purchase a new pitching prospect and take on a potential bounceback reliever (who could be a deadline trade candidate if the Sox are out of the division hunt). The Yankees, meanwhile, will shed Ottavino’s $9MM luxury-tax hit.

[moonslav59]

So, we need to add Hernandez, Richards and Ottavino to the 40 man roster and have only 1 slot open.

 

What two go?

 

Trade Beni and/or Brice (no options left)?

 

Payamps

Springs

 

Wilson (but we have shallow OF depth)

 

Send Whitlock back or somewhere else?

[jad]

Otta-freaking-VIVA!!! Damn, it doesn't get any better than that! You tell me Fenway isn't going to PACKED with his loyal fans!!

[mvp 78]

So, we need to add Hernandez, Richards and Ottavino to the 40 man roster and have only 1 slot open.

 

What two go?

 

Trade Beni and/or Brice (no options left)?

 

Payamps

Springs

 

Wilson (but we have shallow OF depth)

 

Send Whitlock back or somewhere else?

 

They still need pitching depth. Makes no sense to move Whitlock back.

[notin]

They still need pitching depth. Makes no sense to move Whitlock back.

 

I am surprised the Sox did not just have Whitlock's rights included in the deal...

[notin]

It looks like we are currently $14.5M under the "tax line."

 

We may decide to keep some in reserve for the deadline, or maybe we are okay with going over by a little, but let's assume we have $14M to spend this winter. How would you spend it?

 

Would you trade Beni for a cheap CF'er, pitcher or prospects to free up another $6M? If yes, you have $20M to spend and maybe one open slot filled.

 

Here are some possible available players at areas we may want to fill and their projected cost by MLBTR:

 

Closer:

$7M x 2 Rosenthal

$6M x 1 Colome

 

OF:

$17M x 4 Ozuna (trade Beni)

$8M x 2 JBJ

$4M x 1 Pillar or Gardner

$2M x 1 Marisnick or

 

 

RP:

$4M x 1 Melancon

 

SP:

$13M x 3 Odorizzi

$10M x 1 Paxton

$8M x 2 Walker

$6M x 1 Wainwright

$5M x 1 Porcello

$4M x 1 C Hamels or C Archer

 

2B (Kike to CF/Utility):

$14M x 1 Semien

$8M x 2 K Wong

$7M x 2 La Stella

$6M x 1 C Hernandez

 

1B:

$6M x 1 C Santana

$2M x 1 Moreland

 

My choices:

 

$14M: $6 Colome, $4M Pillar & $4M Melancon

 

$20M: $10M Paxton, $6M Colome & $4M Pillar

 

 

Carlos Santana signed with the Royals weeks ago

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Last September Roenicke said Verdugo's favorite spot is playing centerfield. Time to start thinking about that really happening? My concern would be durability. 2019 he was +3 runs saved in 476 CF innings with LA. If he can play there regularly well, he becomes more valuable.

 

Ugh.