A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

He's going to NYM, but I'll be happy if he signs in BOS.

 

I'm sticking with my gut here. I think 1) the Mets can f*** this up, and 2) a lot of these Japanese players surprise us all by eschewing the East Coast markets for the more proximal West Coast teams. It was not that long ago that Shohei Otani was earmarked for the Yankees...

[mvp 78]

I'm sticking with my gut here. I think 1) the Mets can f*** this up, and 2) a lot of these Japanese players surprise us all by eschewing the East Coast markets for the more proximal West Coast teams. It was not that long ago that Shohei Otani was earmarked for the Yankees...

 

I have faith that the new Mets ownership will f*** up AFTER completely overextending themselves. They need more contracts to pile on before they get there.

[mvp 78]

@JonHeyman

Tomoyuki Sugano, Yomiuri Giants star, is expected to decide by Tuesday where he will sign. Sugano can return to Yomiuri (14-2 with a 1.97 ERA last year); they’ve reportedly offered 4 yrs w/3 opt-outs. The SF Giants, Jays and Mets among the interested

@Ken_Rosenthal @Joelsherman1

 

Maybe the Sox aren't in the running anymore?

[mvp 78]

@tdcardss

Replying to

@JonHeyman

 

@Ken_Rosenthal and @Joelsherman1 Red Sox need pitching more than anyone but will prob just end up signing Mike Leake or something. Can’t believe how many of you “writers” praised the Bloom signing...

 

Which of you wrote the above tweet? Come clean!

[notin]

@JonHeyman

Tomoyuki Sugano, Yomiuri Giants star, is expected to decide by Tuesday where he will sign. Sugano can return to Yomiuri (14-2 with a 1.97 ERA last year); they’ve reportedly offered 4 yrs w/3 opt-outs. The SF Giants, Jays and Mets among the interested

@Ken_Rosenthal @Joelsherman1

 

Maybe the Sox aren't in the running anymore?

 

Or maybe Heyman still thinks Twitter is limiting his characters at 140 so he left them out? Both are equally likely...

[notin]

@tdcardss

Replying to

@JonHeyman

 

@Ken_Rosenthal and @Joelsherman1 Red Sox need pitching more than anyone but will prob just end up signing Mike Leake or something. Can’t believe how many of you “writers” praised the Bloom signing...

 

Which of you wrote the above tweet? Come clean!

 

Clearly not me. I would have had them signing Jose Urena or Rick Porcello...

[notin]

He's going to NYM, but I'll be happy if he signs in BOS.

 

Or not...

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/latest-on-tomoyuki-sugano.html

[mvp 78]

@ChrisCotillo

Bobby Dalbec is eligible for Rookie of the Year and he thinks he can win it in 2021. He's planning on mastering the art of game-planning this winter, with some help from VR.

 

I like Dalbec, but I'm clicking "(x) doubt" for sure.

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

@ChrisCotillo

Bobby Dalbec is eligible for Rookie of the Year and he thinks he can win it in 2021. He's planning on mastering the art of game-planning this winter, with some help from VR.

 

I like Dalbec, but I'm clicking "(x) doubt" for sure.

 

I've always been high on Dalbec, but it won't be easy to win ROY.

 

I do have high hopes, though.

[harmony]

I've always been high on Dalbec, but it won't be easy to win ROY.

 

I do have high hopes, though.

My pessimistic expectation for Bobby Dalbec resembles my pessimistic expectation a year ago for 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

 

Here are their stats from their brief MLB debut seasons:

 

2019 KL 18 G, 75 PA, 10 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .268/.293/.592/.885, OPS+ 131

2020 BD 23 G, 92 PA, 13 R, 8 HR, 16 RBI, .263/.359/.600/.959, OPS+ 152

 

Their 2021 ZiPS projections:

 

KL 122 G, 472 PA, 51 R, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .227/.282/.377/.659, -0.2 WAR

BD 121 G, 447 PA, 57 R, 21 HR, 58 RBI, .217/.302/.409/.711, 0.8 WAR

 

Their 2021 Steamer projections:

 

KL 149 G, 650 PA, 71 R, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .231/.309/.393/.702, 1.5 WAR

BD 133 G, 531 PA, 68 R, 27 HR, 74 RBI, .234/.318/.456/.774, 0.6 WAR

 

... and their 2021 Marcel projections:

 

KL 534 PA, 76 R, 24 HR, 68 RBI, .257/.343/.452/.795

BD 324 PA, 43 R, 16 HR, 45 RBI, .249/.336/.470/.807

 

FWIW Dalbec is two weeks older than the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year.

[notin]

My pessimistic expectation for Bobby Dalbec resembles my pessimistic expectation a year ago for 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

 

Here are their stats from their brief MLB debut seasons:

 

2019 KL 18 G, 75 PA, 10 R, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .268/.293/.592/.885, OPS+ 131

2020 BD 23 G, 92 PA, 13 R, 8 HR, 16 RBI, .263/.359/.600/.959, OPS+ 152

 

Their 2021 ZiPS projections:

 

KL 122 G, 472 PA, 51 R, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .227/.282/.377/.659, -0.2 WAR

BD 121 G, 447 PA, 57 R, 21 HR, 58 RBI, .217/.302/.409/.711, 0.8 WAR

 

Their 2021 Steamer projections:

 

KL 149 G, 650 PA, 71 R, 22 HR, 75 RBI, .231/.309/.393/.702, 1.5 WAR

BD 133 G, 531 PA, 68 R, 27 HR, 74 RBI, .234/.318/.456/.774, 0.6 WAR

 

... and their 2021 Marcel projections:

 

KL 534 PA, 76 R, 24 HR, 68 RBI, .257/.343/.452/.795

BD 324 PA, 43 R, 16 HR, 45 RBI, .249/.336/.470/.807

 

FWIW Dalbec is two weeks older than the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year.

 

Of course, performance against previous winners is completely moot for the award.

 

All that matters is whether or not another rookie has a better season...

[mvp 78]

FWIW Dalbec is two weeks older than the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year.

 

Ok?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is it bad when MLB.com runs an article on potential offseason moves titled "Ten Teams Who Aren't Done Yet" -- and the Red Sox aren't one of them?

[notin]

Is it bad when MLB.com runs an article on potential offseason moves titled "Ten Teams Who Aren't Done Yet" -- and the Red Sox aren't one of them?

 

No. Next question...

[notin]

Is it bad when MLB.com runs an article on potential offseason moves titled "Ten Teams Who Aren't Done Yet" -- and the Red Sox aren't one of them?

 

I can name 30 teams that are not done yet...

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

Is it bad when MLB.com runs an article on potential offseason moves titled "Ten Teams Who Aren't Done Yet" -- and the Red Sox aren't one of them?

 

They probably meant "Ten Good Teams."

[kenmeister]

 

FWIW Dalbec is two weeks older than the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year.

 

I feel that the Sox kept Dalbec in the minors too long.

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

I feel that the Sox kept Dalbec in the minors too long.

 

Yeah, they should have benched Devers or Moreland.

 

(sarcasm alert)

 

[kenmeister]

Yeah, they should have benched Devers or Moreland.

 

(sarcasm alert)

 

 

He could have platooned with Moreland in 2019. Anyway, that team sucked so it doesn't matter; he's here now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I can name 30 teams that are not done yet...

 

Maybe they mean we're done, as in foe-geddaboudit.

[moonslav59]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

He could have platooned with Moreland in 2019. Anyway, that team sucked so it doesn't matter; he's here now.

 

...and we gained a year of team control by keeping him down another year.

[dannycater]

Malbec is Dalbec's favorite wine

[Bellhorn04]

Malbec is Dalbec's favorite wine

 

Especially with Malpeque oysters.

[moonslav59]

In Quebec?

[moonslav59]

So, maybe we sign Odorizz, Kluber, Hernandez & a closer (Hand?).

 

Would this be enough to be favored to win a playoff slot?

 

What chance would that team have at advancing to the World Series or even winning it?

 

(I'd say we should make the playoffs but not expect to advance more than one round, at best.)

[Bellhorn04]

In Quebec?

 

Has to be a good limerick in there somewhere.

[Bellhorn04]

So, maybe we sign Odorizz, Kluber, Hernandez & a closer (Hand?).

 

Would this be enough to be favored to win a playoff slot?

 

What chance would that team have at advancing to the World Series or even winning it?

 

(I'd say we should make the playoffs but not expect to advance more than one round, at best.)

 

You don't believe in the crapshoot principle?

[Bellhorn04]

I think we could use a new thread on the crapshoot principle.

[mvp 78]

So, maybe we sign Odorizz, Kluber, Hernandez & a closer (Hand?).

 

Would this be enough to be favored to win a playoff slot?

 

What chance would that team have at advancing to the World Series or even winning it?

 

(I'd say we should make the playoffs but not expect to advance more than one round, at best.)

 

No, but it should keep them in the hunt, especially if Kluber comes back strong.

[moonslav59]

You don't believe in the crapshoot principle?

 

Not really.

 

While wild card teams have won it all, it is rare a poor one even makes it to the WS- let alone wins one.

 

If 10 teams make the playoffs, IMO, the 10 ranked team doesn't have even close to a 10% chance at winning it all. I don't even think it's 5%, which in itself probably negates the "crapshoot principle."