A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[Kimmi]

I would suspect he is on the radar. These guys are all going to sign somewhere. So we shall see how many wind up in Boston...

 

Tanaka has reportedly given the impression that if he doesn't re-sign with the Yankees, he is signing with his former team in Japan. He does not want to play for a team that isn't a contender. Even though I think we will contend, I don't think there's much of a chance he would sign with the Sox.

[moonslav59]

I'd go with Porcello because of his durability.

 

Lester and Porcello have almost identical IP, but at their ages, I'd think Porcello rates to pitch more innings in 2021 and 2022.

 

One could argue with all Porcello's IP over his career, he's due for a break down. Not many SP'ers log 170 MLB IP at age 20 and never dip below 163 their whole careers. He was over 172 IP for 9 straight years before 2020, where he was on pace for close to 172.

[moonslav59]

2388 Verlander

2301 Scherzer

2280 Greinke

2244 Lester

2225 Kershaw

2155 C Hamels

2096 Porcello

2063 Felix H

2061 Shields

2015 Price

[Bellhorn04]

One could argue with all Porcello's IP over his career, he's due for a break down. Not many SP'ers log 170 MLB IP at age 20 and never dip below 163 their whole careers. He was over 172 IP for 9 straight years before 2020, where he was on pace for close to 172.

 

But it's quite possible, even probable, that Porcello's physical makeup, preparation and pitching motion are the reasons for his durability.

[dgalehouse]

Well, I think I have to when people think team stats are good for judging individual performance.

 

And I am not the one who brought ERA into the mix as an evaluation. I only like it because it is relatable, but really, it doesn't mean as much as many people like to think it does. I think WHIP is better, because at least it removes the bullpen flaw...

 

I think WHIP has some value in evaluating a pitcher. But I think ERA is more important. The games are decided by runs scored, not by total baserunners. Every stat has flaws , including WAR . WAR is kind of complicated and is one stat that few , if any , of us are able to calculate on our own.

[moonslav59]

But it's quite possible, even probable, that Porcello's physical makeup, preparation and pitching motion are the reasons for his durability.

 

Agreed. I would not bet against him getting 180+ IP in 2021.

 

He's a horse.

 

The problem is, he's not very good anymore.

[moonslav59]

I think WHIP has some value in evaluating a pitcher. But I think ERA is more important. The games are decided by runs scored, not by total baserunners. Every stat has flaws , including WAR . WAR is kind of complicated and is one stat that few , if any , of us are able to calculate on our own.

 

ERA is highly dependent on team defense, park configuration and strength of opponent's offense.

 

Even ERA+ or ERA- are flawed, but they are better than just plain ole ERA.

 

I'm not a big fan of FIP. I value ERA-, WHIP and OPS against more than ERA or FIP.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. I would not bet against him getting 180+ IP in 2021.

 

He's a horse.

 

The problem is, he's not very good anymore.

 

Porcello would make an interesting case study for the differences between fWAR and bWAR for pitchers.

 

His career fWAR is 50% better than his bWAR. That's a hefty difference!

[moonslav59]

Porcello would make an interesting case study for the differences between fWAR and bWAR for pitchers.

 

His career fWAR is 50% better than his bWAR. That's a hefty difference!

 

It sure is.

 

I could be wrong, but I think fWAR values innings pitched, even if they are not pitched all that well, more than they should be. I also think they rely on FIP too much.

 

notin probably knows more about this than I do.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It sure is.

 

I could be wrong, but I think fWAR values innings pitched, even if they are not pitched all that well, more than they should be. I also think they rely on FIP too much.

 

notin probably knows more about this than I do.

 

From what little I know about WAR (besides that both B and F admit their stats are "estimates"): values for pitchers increase with the number of batters retired. Thus, usually, starters who "go long" > once-through-the-order guys > openers, closers, and set-up types.

[Bellhorn04]

It sure is.

 

I could be wrong, but I think fWAR values innings pitched, even if they are not pitched all that well, more than they should be. I also think they rely on FIP too much.

 

notin probably knows more about this than I do.

 

FIP is the big difference-maker, I think.

 

In 2020 Porcello's FIP was 3.33, his actual ERA was 5.64.

 

He gave up 74 hits in 59 innings, but only 5 of them were homers.

 

His BABIP was a fat .373.

 

Basically he gave up a ton of singles.

[Bellhorn04]

From what little I know about WAR (besides that both B and F admit their stats are "estimates"): values for pitchers increase with the number of batters retired. Thus, usually, starters who "go long" > once-through-the-order guys > openers, closers, and set-up types.

 

WAR is actually a counting stat, so on average, the more you play, the higher your WAR.

 

As a result, an elite WAR for a reliever is only around 3 or so.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

WAR is actually a counting stat, so on average, the more you play, the higher your WAR.

 

As a result, an elite WAR for a reliever is only around 3 or so.

 

I know, but try telling any Yankee fan that on their all-time best team in 1998 that Ramiro Mendoza was more valuable than Mo Rivera, the only unanimous Hall of Famer in history.

[harmony]

An MLB.com reporter offers her early 2021 power rankings:

 

MLB Power Rankings to begin 2021

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The first Power Rankings of the new year is always the most challenging. Predicting what teams will look like in April -- or even in February, when pitchers and catchers normally report -- can turn into a combination of playing whack-a-mole blindfolded. Even in normal times, momentum can swing with

[moonslav59]

An MLB.com reporter offers her early 2021 power rankings:

 

MLB Power Rankings to begin 2021

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The first Power Rankings of the new year is always the most challenging. Predicting what teams will look like in April -- or even in February, when pitchers and catchers normally report -- can turn into a combination of playing whack-a-mole blindfolded. Even in normal times, momentum can swing with

 

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see us add 5-7 solid players, this winter or by the deadline, but we have to add at least 4:

 

1A. Closer

1B. SP'er (preferably a durable #2-#3 type)

3. Solid set-up RP'er

4. CF/2B (maybe Hernandez)

 

Maybe we sign 3 and trade for 1.

 

Ideally, we'd add:

 

1. #2 SP'er

2. Solid closer

3. Solid RP'er

4. CF who is plus defense

5. 2B

6. SP'er depth

7. RP'er depth

[harmony]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections* show a wide gap between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

* the projections were for rosters current as of November 13 for the Yankees and December 17 for the Red Sox

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections* show a wide gap between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-zips-projections-new-york-yankees/

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-projections-boston-red-sox/

 

* the projections were for rosters current as of November 13 for the Yankees and December 17 for the Red Sox

 

They are better, on paper, even before any additions.

 

Do you think the Yanks are top 3 or 4, as is?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd like to see us add 5-7 solid players, this winter or by the deadline, but we have to add at least 4:

 

1A. Closer

1B. SP'er (preferably a durable #2-#3 type)

3. Solid set-up RP'er

4. CF/2B (maybe Hernandez)

 

Maybe we sign 3 and trade for 1.

 

Ideally, we'd add:

 

1. #2 SP'er

2. Solid closer

3. Solid RP'er

4. CF who is plus defense

5. 2B

6. SP'er depth

7. RP'er depth

 

Obviously, one of the hold-ups on this sloth of a snail of a pandemic-year hangover of an offseason is waiting around for the Big 4 Qualifying Offer Mercenaries to finally settle somewhere for something south of pre-Covid contract expectations.

 

I read somewhere that if the Sox are trading Vazquez, they have to wait for possible best return deals with the Realmuto runners-up... That makes sense for Rebuilding Bloom, but then who will be the starting catcher on the aspiring contenders from Beantown?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sugano is supposedly in the U.S. and will soon sign. Finalists reportedly include the Red Sox, Jays, Mets, Giants and Padres. If we eliminate SD, who just acquired two established big league starters -- and if, as again speculated by the media, Toronto and NY are hot for Bauer -- might the Sugano sweepstakes come down to Boston or San Fran? An anxious Nation looms aggressively...

[Bellhorn04]

Obviously, one of the hold-ups on this sloth of a snail of a pandemic-year hangover of an offseason is waiting around for the Big 4 Qualifying Offer Mercenaries to finally settle somewhere for something south of pre-Covid contract expectations.

 

I read somewhere that if the Sox are trading Vazquez, they have to wait for possible best return deals with the Realmuto runners-up... That makes sense for Rebuilding Bloom, but then who will be the starting catcher on the aspiring contenders from Beantown?

 

Everybody (except San Diego) is waiting on everybody else. Too many vultures and not enough predators.

[Kimmi]

FIP is the big difference-maker, I think.

 

In 2020 Porcello's FIP was 3.33, his actual ERA was 5.64.

 

He gave up 74 hits in 59 innings, but only 5 of them were homers.

 

His BABIP was a fat .373.

 

Basically he gave up a ton of singles.

 

fWAR uses FIP whereas bWAR uses RA9 (actual runs allowed).

 

The main difference is that fWAR gives a better indication of how a pitcher is likely to pitch the following year based on his true talent, and bWAR gives a better indication of how the team fared on the field when that pitcher pitched. bWAR matches up better with team WAR. fWAR is a much better predictor. In fact, K/BB is a better predictor of a pitcher's future performance than bWAR is.

[Kimmi]

The rankings clearly assume future additions by the Yanks. As they stand, right now, they should not be top 5.

 

They clearly are not assuming the Sox make significant additions.

 

Be consistent: either rank the teams as they are right now, or not.

 

Fangraphs also currently has the Yankees ranked at #3.

[harmony]

Fangraphs also currently has the Yankees ranked at #3.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

 

Click on the top of WAR column.

 

Seattle fans are discouraged with the stunningly low projections for the young Mariners.

[notin]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

 

Click on the top of WAR column.

 

Seattle fans are discouraged with the stunningly low projections for the young Mariners.

 

Fire sale!!!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We interrupt this hot stove league with a TV commercial: watch "Unauthorized Living" on Netflix; it's kind of like a Spanish version of The Sopranos, but without the heavy hitters.

 

I know this because the lead character's name is literally... Mario Mendoza. And the name of the actor who plays him is literally... Alex Gonzalez.

 

Somebody's playing a joke on me.

[moonslav59]

Obviously, one of the hold-ups on this sloth of a snail of a pandemic-year hangover of an offseason is waiting around for the Big 4 Qualifying Offer Mercenaries to finally settle somewhere for something south of pre-Covid contract expectations.

 

I read somewhere that if the Sox are trading Vazquez, they have to wait for possible best return deals with the Realmuto runners-up... That makes sense for Rebuilding Bloom, but then who will be the starting catcher on the aspiring contenders from Beantown?

 

I suggested a 3 way trade with Philly & Pitt. Philly gets Vaz, Pitt gets Abel from PHI and maybe Wong, Ward or Groome from us, and we get Taillon & Stallings © from Pitt.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lol, the Yanks right now are the odds on favorite for the ALE as currently constructed. Plus, the Yanks are expected to add to their team, where TB isn’t. TB has seen Morton and Snell move on with very little 2021 big league talent back. I don’t think you’re seeing what the Yanks are expecting to get back as enough to take the AL. Severino was a top 10 CY finisher before a lat strain then TJS sidelined him. He’s young and was chucking beebees before TJS. German won 18 games as well, and while rusty, doesn’t have a health concern. There’s talent in the rotation, lots of up and coming talent for the rotation in the high minors and a continued high level of talent in the pen. The offense needs DJ, but will replace Gardner easily with Frazier. I want the Yanks to add a pitcher and DJ, mostly because I was them to not get smoked if they get to the WS.

 

Cleveland is expected to deal Lindor and are in the throes of purging payroll. The Twins are good, but are we ever gonna put them ahead of the Yanks when they’re not in the same division? The Astros are in payroll hell and will be without Verlander for 2021 and now are looking to be moving on from Brantley and Springer. I think the Yanks ranking is less “bias” and more the fact that the AL is down right now.

[moonslav59]

I guess all AL teams have open slots- some to be filled, this winter. The Yanks without DJ, Tanaka, Paxton and others is not much different from many teams.

 

Several teams, including the Sox & Yanks, have proven players returning from injuries. I guess what team's fan you are has a lot to do with the optimism of projected productivities of these returning players.

[jacksonianmarch]

I honestly think that the AL is down and a team like the Yanks, holes and all, is a far more likely team to be the best of the bunch than really any other. It’s as much a nod to the Yanks as it is an indictment of the entire league