A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

He can play 2B & CF, among many other positions, so it makes sense. Maybe he's the only new, non pitching piece we add, this winter.

 

I think the Sox are looking to upgrade 2b full time. Some people are apparently sold on Christian Arroyo, but he has a history of sucking that is far greater than his history of success. And his “success” was actually pretty mediocre stuff.

 

Put another way, I don’t think the Sox are going to pay Enrique Hernandez to back up Christian Arroyo...

[oldtimer]

The problem is, you don't want to sell at an all time low value on guys like Beni & JD.

 

The approach to getting rid of deadwood included a time stipulation. One year of poor performance might get you put on notice but not fired. So it comes down to judgment. Is a players upside worth taking a chance on?

[Bellhorn04]

The approach to getting rid of deadwood included a time stipulation. One year of poor performance might get you put on notice but not fired. So it comes down to judgment. Is a players upside worth taking a chance on?

 

There are a whole bunch of complicating factors in play if we're talking about Beni & JD. With Beni you pretty much have to throw 2020 out the window. And with JD, you can't really count 2020 as a season either.

 

That's just for starters.

 

Baseball is totally different from a typical business.

[Bellhorn04]

If the Red Sox did decide JD was cooked (which I'm sure they haven't) and went all out to unload him, in the current climate the most another team would be willing to pay of his salary might be 8 or 9 million. If the Red Sox did that, they'd be eating 13 or 14 million (in AAV) for 2 years. If JD goes back to raking, how would that rate as a baseball move?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hernandez has a bit of pop in his bat. He averages about 25 HRs per 700 PAs- career.

 

He has a .744 OPS over the last 4 seasons.

 

Here are his defensive metrics (some small sample sizes):

 

2B (1263 innings)

-6.2 UZR/150 and +18 DRS

 

CF (1109 innings)

+8.4 UZR/150 and +4 DRS

 

LF (603 innings)

+18 UZR & +14 DRS

 

SS (536 innings)

+10.4 UZR & +3 DRS

 

RF (342 innings)

+11.9 UZR & +3 DRS

 

3B (155 innings)

-28.4 UZR & -1 DRS

 

1B (89 innings)

+17.4 UZR & -2 DRS

 

 

Kike's got a surprisingly quick bat; at least, I was surprised when he hit a freaking blast off Kimbrel in the World Series.

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox are looking to upgrade 2b full time. Some people are apparently sold on Christian Arroyo, but he has a history of sucking that is far greater than his history of success. And his “success” was actually pretty mediocre stuff.

 

Put another way, I don’t think the Sox are going to pay Enrique Hernandez to back up Christian Arroyo...

 

I like that he can play a good defensive CF, as well. If Arroyo or Munoz do well in 2021, maybe he'll spend a lot of time in CF. He can also spell our starters at 3B, SS, 1B and corner OF. He'll make having a DH only DH easier to handle. He'll make other roster decisions easier, due to his flexibility.

 

I hope we sign him.

[moonslav59]

The approach to getting rid of deadwood included a time stipulation. One year of poor performance might get you put on notice but not fired. So it comes down to judgment. Is a players upside worth taking a chance on?

 

Another factor to consider is whether the struggling player is taking up a roster spot that someone else on the 40 man roster looks capable of filling well. As of right now, our roster is not deep with players I'm thinking deserve a shot over Beni, JD or anyone else that may be struggling.

 

As for Beni & JD, I wouldn't count their 2020 struggles as a full season. Plus, Beni was dealing with injury issues.

 

Their trade value is pretty low, right now, so we'll roll the dice and see what happens.

[notin]

I like that he can play a good defensive CF, as well. If Arroyo or Munoz do well in 2021, maybe he'll spend a lot of time in CF. He can also spell our starters at 3B, SS, 1B and corner OF. He'll make having a DH only DH easier to handle. He'll make other roster decisions easier, due to his flexibility.

 

I hope we sign him.

 

I would be very surprised if Christian Arroyo is as included in the plans as you seem to think he is. Clearly Munoz - already DFA'd and re-signed -is not.

 

I don't think the Sox are going to sign any more utility infielder types; those positions are filled. They need starters at 2B and CF. And CF has more potential for a bad contract package to hep the pitching...

[notin]

Corey Kluber is still in play. If he looks good at his audition next month, I do hope that his residence in Winchester, MA becomes a factor in choosing the Sox...

[Bellhorn04]

Corey Kluber is still in play. If he looks good at his audition next month, I do hope that his residence in Winchester, MA becomes a factor in choosing the Sox...

 

Absolutely.

[moonslav59]

I would be very surprised if Christian Arroyo is as included in the plans as you seem to think he is. Clearly Munoz - already DFA'd and re-signed -is not.

 

I don't think the Sox are going to sign any more utility infielder types; those positions are filled. They need starters at 2B and CF. And CF has more potential for a bad contract package to hep the pitching...

 

Hernandez is very capable at 2B and in CF.

 

I could see him playing about 50-50 at each.

 

While Arroyo does not excite me, either, neither does Beni in CF or Renfroe playing RF FT and Verdugo in CF. If we add only Hernandez and no other OF'ers what's worse? Arroyo/Munoz/Chatham/Arauz/Chavis at 2B or a not-ready-for-prime-time Duran in CF or Beni in LF FT, Renfroe in RF full time and Verdugo in CF?

 

Now, if we add a CF'er and Hernandez, I agree, Hernandez is the FT 2Bman.

 

On Munoz, if he does well in AAA, he could very well end up back on the 40 man roster and playing 2B/Utility for the Sox in 2021, especially if we don't add a 2Bman.

Edited December 27, 2020 by moonslav59

[notin]

Hernandez is very capable at 2B and in CF.

 

I could see him playing about 50-50 at each.

 

While Arroyo does not excite me, either, neither does Beni in CF or Renfroe playing RF FT and Verdugo in CF. If we add only Hernandez and no other OF'ers what's worse? Arroyo/Munoz/Chatham/Arauz/Chavis at 2B or a not-ready-for-prime-time Duran in CF or Beni in LF FT, Renfroe in RF full time and Verdugo in CF?

 

Now, if we add a CF'er and Hernandez, I agree, Hernandez is the FT 2Bman.

 

On Munoz, if he does well in AAA, he could very well end up back on the 40 man roster and playing 2B/Utility for the Sox in 2021, especially if we don't add a 2Bman.

 

That is why the Sox are likely to get both a 2B and CF.

 

Just because pitching is the priority does not mean everything else needs to be ignored. Especially since there is not exactly a ton of pitching on this market even worth spending on after Bauer. And when you also factor in:

 

1) that teams are passing on All Star closers with only $10mill left and

2) none of the typical big spenders have been dropping cash anywhere except the Mets, who inexplicably dropped $40mill on a career backup catcher who had a good season once,

 

then the Sox are clearly aiming to get those starters for less money than normally budgeted.

 

 

The Sox are actually extremely likely to being in a starting 2B, a starting CF, and a LHH 1B option, and doing so actually won't leave them unable to afford any pitcher except maybe Bauer. Maybe. After all, Bauer does have to sign somewhere....

[moonslav59]

I agree it is likely we add a2b man and CFer but it’s not a sure thing. We may avoid adding a 1Bman.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the Red Sox did decide JD was cooked (which I'm sure they haven't) and went all out to unload him, in the current climate the most another team would be willing to pay of his salary might be 8 or 9 million. If the Red Sox did that, they'd be eating 13 or 14 million (in AAV) for 2 years. If JD goes back to raking, how would that rate as a baseball move?

 

In this current climate, no team is taking JDM for $8-$9 mil. Every team is in cost cutting mode and nobody wants a guy who doesnt play a defensive position, who is either entering his down phase or is unable to adjust to the new video rules. JDM is entirely untradeable

[notin]

In this current climate, no team is taking JDM for $8-$9 mil. Every team is in cost cutting mode and nobody wants a guy who doesnt play a defensive position, who is either entering his down phase or is unable to adjust to the new video rules. JDM is entirely untradeable

 

Well, don’t forget Carlos Santana, who really doesn’t have a defensive position either (Yeah! He’s below average at the easiest position to field!!), yet he signed for roughly $8.8 million with a small market team that no one expects to compete!!

 

So I have doubts about your statement. It just comes down to whether or not the Sox should trade JDM...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While we don't know if stardom in the KBO will transfer to the MLB, it would seem Kim is exactly the type of player Bloom would be all-in on -- if the Red Sox are actually committed to upgrading this winter for the long run. If salary projections are true -- 5 for $40M or even $50M -- Kim is a 25-year old gold glove infielder who can hit at half the cost of what Semien is seeking.

 

If another club outbids another one of Boston's "aggressive strong interests", then you can trust there will be and should be discussions here and elsewhere about the definitions of trust...

[notin]

While we don't know if stardom in the KBO will transfer to the MLB, it would seem Kim is exactly the type of player Bloom would be all-in on -- if the Red Sox are actually committed to upgrading this winter for the long run. If salary projections are true -- 5 for $40M or even $50M -- Kim is a 25-year old gold glove infielder who can hit at half the cost of what Semien is seeking.

 

If another club outbids another one of Boston's "aggressive strong interests", then you can trust there will be and should be discussions here and elsewhere about the definitions of trust...

 

The weird thing about Kim is the most interested teams right now are probably the two teams in MLB that least need an infielder. The Blue Jays (Biggio, Bichette, Guerrero) and the Padres (Cronenworth, Tatis, Machado) have both either made offers or are deep in talks.

 

I would like to see Boston get involved...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The weird thing about Kim is the most interested teams right now are probably the two teams in MLB that least need an infielder. The Blue Jays (Biggio, Bichette, Guerrero) and the Padres (Cronenworth, Tatis, Machado) have both either made offers or are deep in talks.

 

I would like to see Boston get involved...

 

Reportedly, the Sox are. Kim's age, skills and pricetag make him a potential longterm asset -- and not one to be dismissed by resetters who are more than "a player away from the top".

 

I know Kim is not a pitcher, but last place teams need to add a lot of good players to climb back up.

[notin]

Reportedly, the Sox are. Kim's age, skills and pricetag make him a potential longterm asset -- and not one to be dismissed by resetters who are more than "a player away from the top".

 

All the players I mentioned are also long term assets, too. I think Tatis is the closest to free agency and he is not up until 2025.

 

I also don't think the Red Sox - or any MLB team - ever operates on the assumption that they are one year away or two years away. That's Outsider Logic. Only 20% separates the best teams from the worst teams, and anything can happen any year. No GM wants to hold back because he has conceded the division to, say, the Yankees, only to watch of their 3 or 4 key players become lost to injury.

 

Resetting is one thing. No one likes paying anything called a "tax". But once teams juggle their payroll to minimize that aspect of the game, there are just cheap teams and big budget teams, and both operate in their respective categories the rest of the time. The Sox have reset before. But how many times have they reset the tax and stayed cheap the following season?

[Bellhorn04]

In this current climate, no team is taking JDM for $8-$9 mil. Every team is in cost cutting mode and nobody wants a guy who doesnt play a defensive position, who is either entering his down phase or is unable to adjust to the new video rules. JDM is entirely untradeable

 

Well, don’t forget Carlos Santana, who really doesn’t have a defensive position either (Yeah! He’s below average at the easiest position to field!!), yet he signed for roughly $8.8 million with a small market team that no one expects to compete!!

 

So I have doubts about your statement.

 

Thank you. I stand by my numbers!

[notin]

Thank you. I stand by my numbers!

 

However, I think the Sox should hold on to Martinez. I think he can bounce back. I don't like the idea of paying Martinez to play for someone else and then going out and paying someone else to fill his role...

[Bellhorn04]

However, I think the Sox should hold on to Martinez. I think he can bounce back. I don't like the idea of paying Martinez to play for someone else and then going out and paying someone else to fill his role...

 

I don't like it either. My point to oldtimer was that unloading 2020 underperformers like JD and Beni for whatever you can get is not necessarily smart from either a business or baseball perspective. It's not like a regular business where you can just cut loose the deadwood and replace them with better personnel for the same cost...

[notin]

Reportedly, the Sox are. Kim's age, skills and pricetag make him a potential longterm asset -- and not one to be dismissed by resetters who are more than "a player away from the top".

 

I know Kim is not a pitcher, but last place teams need to add a lot of good players to climb back up.

 

Boston is reportedly "looming" per MLBTR and Joel Sherman, but the Jays and Padres are the front runners...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Boston is reportedly "looming" per MLBTR and Joel Sherman, but the Jays and Padres are the front runners...

 

But this time they're serious, aggressive loomers!

 

Your rhetorical -- "how many times have they reset the tax and stayed cheap the following season?" -- is disconcerting for those of us spoiled from winters targeting one or two stars to round out the roster of contenders.

 

Still, there are so many decent players available now, I have to wonder if the signing of one or two choice free agents will suddenly cause a massive domino effect on the entire market... or if it is in perpetual quarantine awaiting vaccination reassurance.

[moonslav59]

I'm still thinking that in these times, the best strategy may be to hold back and then mop up on several bargain deals after the major dominoes fall.

 

I know that's not what many want, and big splash names increase viewership and ticket sales, but there are several ways to get competitive.

 

I could see us signing 4-5 bargain basement free agents that are decent to good and trading for one big name SP'er.

[oldtimer]

Reportedly, the Sox are. Kim's age, skills and pricetag make him a potential longterm asset -- and not one to be dismissed by resetters who are more than "a player away from the top".

 

I know Kim is not a pitcher, but last place teams need to add a lot of good players to climb back up.

 

If you advocate signing Kim, who looks like a nice asset, how would you then handle Downs? Trade or keep for what purpose?

[mvp 78]

Boston is reportedly "looming" per MLBTR and Joel Sherman, but the Jays and Padres are the front runners...

 

I think they'll be looming in most every FA transaction this year. They will submit a bunch of under market offers and hope to get a bite.

[mvp 78]

I'm still thinking that in these times, the best strategy may be to hold back and then mop up on several bargain deals after the major dominoes fall.

 

I know that's not what many want, and big splash names increase viewership and ticket sales, but there are several ways to get competitive.

 

I could see us signing 4-5 bargain basement free agents that are decent to good and trading for one big name SP'er.

 

I agree with everything except for the trading for a big name SP'er. I don't think that happens until 2022 or 2023.

[kenmeister]

Corey Kluber is still in play. If he looks good at his audition next month, I do hope that his residence in Winchester, MA becomes a factor in choosing the Sox...

 

I keep hoping we get him. I'm also interested in signing Rich Hill to a 1 year deal.

 

For CF, I'd like to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. at a reduced price.

 

For closer, I have no idea.

[mvp 78]

I keep hoping we get him. I'm also interested in signing Rich Hill to a 1 year deal.

 

For CF, I'd like to bring back Jackie Bradley Jr. at a reduced price.

 

For closer, I have no idea.

 

I think the Sox would do better to find more consistent starters. Kluber and Hill both could end up not pitching after April.

 

I guess it fits in with the health questions already surrounding the Sox staff (Sale, ERod, Eovaldi).