A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wheeler? Is he the guy Bloom wants to invest $100 million in to lead this staff to sustained contention?

 

I'm not saying he's not good, but last year was maybe his best year, albeit in a PSS (pandemic sample size): 11 games, 4-2, 2.92 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 1.169 WHIP... led the league in HR9 with 0.4, and HBP with 7 (he may not be a bat-finder, but he's a batter-finder). In comparison, here's Eovaldi's 2020: 9 games, 4-2, 3.72 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.200 WHIP.

 

Wheeler's three months younger than Nate, who Boston only owes $34 million.

[moonslav59]

McCutchen was a minus defender in LF last year. The roster would have Beni/JD/Cutch all who are minus defenders IMO. Tough to do that. They really just need a glove first CFer, like a JBJ type.

 

I agree, taking back McCutchen is not a good idea. I thought he was a better defender than he currently is.

[moonslav59]

Here's the available CFers:

Albert Almora CF

Jackie Bradley Jr. CF

David Dahl CF / LF / RF

Delino DeShields Jr. CF

Jarrod Dyson CF

Brett Gardner CF / LF

Brian Goodwin CF / LF

Billy Hamilton CF

Jon Jay CF / LF

Jake Marisnick CF

Haruki Nishikawa CF

Kevin Pillar CF / RF

Danny Santana CF / 1B

George Springer CF / RF

Bubba Starling CF

Michael Taylor CF

 

Obviously, you wouldn't sign Dahl to be the CFer, so you'd have to move Verdugo to CF. The only way they bring Dahl in is if they move Beni and Dahl plays LF. That doesn't really solve the CF issue.

 

Pillar or Gardner may be the best economical short term options if you just need a bridge to Duran.

 

Michael Taylor signed with the Royals.

 

If we want to go dirt cheap in CF and use most of our budget on pitching, I think Marisnik may be that guy.

 

[mvp 78]

Wheeler? Is he the guy Bloom wants to invest $100 million in to lead this staff to sustained contention?

 

I'm not saying he's not good, but last year was maybe his best year, albeit in a PSS (pandemic sample size): 11 games, 4-2, 2.92 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 1.169 WHIP... led the league in HR9 with 0.4, and HBP with 7 (he may not be a bat-finder, but he's a batter-finder). In comparison, here's Eovaldi's 2020: 9 games, 4-2, 3.72 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.200 WHIP.

 

Wheeler's three months younger than Nate, who Boston only owes $34 million.

 

He's good, but not worth 20M IMO.

[moonslav59]

He's good, but not worth 20M IMO.

 

What if Philly pitched in $3-5M per year?

[mvp 78]

I agree, taking back McCutchen is not a good idea. I thought he was a better defender than he currently is.

 

He was a better defender 4 years ago. He's just OLD. Maybe he's not Gary Gaetti 2000 old, but he's closer to the golf course than to CF.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He's good, but not worth 20M IMO.

 

No one available is -- in this market -- besides Bauer. I can't even imagine too many teams that would pay Stroman or Gausman (especially) $18 million a year, which is the qualifying offers they accepted, at least not for multi-year contracts. Small market teams and big market teams are in the same blinking contest.

[mvp 78]

What if Philly pitched in $3-5M per year?

 

Still a no. In this market, 15M for the next 4 years for him seems high. Plus, you'd have to be giving something up in return. They wouldn't do a Chavis for Wheeler and $20M deal.

[mvp 78]

No one available is -- in this market -- besides Bauer. I can't even imagine too many teams that would pay Stroman or Gausman (especially) $18 million a year, which is the qualifying offers they accepted, at least not for multi-year contracts. Small market teams and big market teams are in the same blinking contest.

 

I believe Stroman and Gausman were both given QO's because the teams figured they'd be declined. They were looking for a comp pick and it didn't work out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I believe Stroman and Gausman were both given QO's because the teams figured they'd be declined. They were looking for a comp pick and it didn't work out.

 

Fair point. The market has changed, even since then. It makes me doubt guys with opt outs like JD and X will ever use them -- who will pay them more than $20 million per year?

 

All those great shortstops becoming free agents next year all at once will drive their own markets down. I'll bet one or two who get traded will sign extensions with their new clubs, like Mookie did (but not for Mookie money).

 

When the Reserve Clause was overturned in the 70s, genius player rep Marvin Miller insisted that clubs still retain five or six years of control, so free agents would emerge each year and not flood the market all at once... supply and demand.

[notin]

I believe Stroman and Gausman were both given QO's because the teams figured they'd be declined. They were looking for a comp pick and it didn't work out.

 

It was a severe miscalculation by the giants if they figured journeyman Gausman would decline a QO...

[mvp 78]

It was a severe miscalculation by the giants if they figured journeyman Gausman would decline a QO...

 

Too much purple bud IMO. Tough to resist when you're walking down Haight.

[mvp 78]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/12/7/22158275/boston-red-sox-roster-bullpen-structure-needs-matt-barnes-ryan-brasier-darwinzon-hernandez-taylor?utm_campaign=overthemonster&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

A look at the current pen:

Barnes

Brasier

Hernandez

Taylor

Valdez

Brewer

Brice

Springs

 

I think Mazza belongs in that group if the roster sticks at 26. They should consider finding better options than Brewer/Brice/Springs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Too much purple bud IMO. Tough to resist when you're walking down Haight.

 

Now I can't get that lyric out of my head: Excuse me, while I eat these fries...

[Bellhorn04]

It was a severe miscalculation by the giants if they figured journeyman Gausman would decline a QO...

 

I think he's maybe a little better than journeyman status, with an fWAR of 15.0 in roughly 6 seasons, and a projected 2021 fWAR of close to 3.

[moonslav59]

Still a no. In this market, 15M for the next 4 years for him seems high. Plus, you'd have to be giving something up in return. They wouldn't do a Chavis for Wheeler and $20M deal.

 

I might give any 2 from Chavis, Chatham or Groome for Wheeler $4M a year.

[moonslav59]

Now I can't get that lyric out of my head: Excuse me, while I eat these fries...

 

Funny, yes, but I knew a kid who swore it was, "Excuse me while I kiss this guy."

[mvp 78]

I think he's maybe a little better than journeyman status, with an fWAR of 15.0 in roughly 6 seasons, and a projected 2021 fWAR of close to 3.

 

I don't see any other team getting close to giving him 18/year. I don't know if it's the fault of the suburban hippies who squat in the Haight for the summer or a techbro-pocalypse, but something went very wrong for that FO to make that decision.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't see any other team getting close to giving him 18/year. I don't know if it's the fault of the suburban hippies who squat in the Haight for the summer or a techbro-pocalypse, but something went very wrong for that FO to make that decision.

 

It's not that bad for a one year deal IMO. He's projected to be worth it. We gave Porcello 82.5 for 4 years, and he really wasn't that much better.

 

Could be tradable at the deadline also.

[moonslav59]

https://www.overthemonster.com/2020/12/7/22158275/boston-red-sox-roster-bullpen-structure-needs-matt-barnes-ryan-brasier-darwinzon-hernandez-taylor?utm_campaign=overthemonster&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

A look at the current pen:

Barnes

Brasier

Hernandez

Taylor

Valdez

Brewer

Brice

Springs

 

I think Mazza belongs in that group if the roster sticks at 26. They should consider finding better options than Brewer/Brice/Springs.

 

The funny thing is, all these guys have options remaining, except Brice, who may be the worst or 2nd worst of the group, so YES, add 2-3 RP'ers and use the bottom 3 as AAA depth. As we know, teams usually use 16-22 RP'ers during a full season usually 8-12 with significant innings.

 

I'd rather use Brewer, Brice and Springs as our 9-11th RP'ers than our 6-8th.

 

Other AAA depth RP'ers might be Walden, Bazardo, Shawaryn, Feltman, Poyner or Mazza/Weber/Mata/Seabold/Hart

[mvp 78]

The funny thing is, all these guys have options remaining, except Brice, who may be the worst or 2nd worst of the group, so YES, add 2-3 RP'ers and use the bottom 3 as AAA depth. As we know, teams usually use 16-22 RP'ers during a full season usually 8-12 with significant innings.

 

I'd rather use Brewer, Brice and Springs as our 9-11th RP'ers than our 6-8th.

 

Other AAA depth RP'ers might be Walden, Bazardo, Shawaryn, Feltman, Poyner or Mazza/Weber/Mata/Seabold/Hart

 

Per Speier, Sox like Brice because he gets batters to swing and miss at a decent rate. He just has no control and walked everyone last year. They believe they can fix it and make an above average reliever. I don't quite buy into it. There have been drumbeats all offseason that Brice was coming back. I never understood it.

[mvp 78]

The funny thing is, all these guys have options remaining, except Brice, who may be the worst or 2nd worst of the group, so YES, add 2-3 RP'ers and use the bottom 3 as AAA depth. As we know, teams usually use 16-22 RP'ers during a full season usually 8-12 with significant innings.

 

I'd rather use Brewer, Brice and Springs as our 9-11th RP'ers than our 6-8th.

 

Other AAA depth RP'ers might be Walden, Bazardo, Shawaryn, Feltman, Poyner or Mazza/Weber/Mata/Seabold/Hart

 

I could see Feltman and Bazardo up this year. Feltman was bad in 2019, but apparently showed increased velo this year. Would be nice to see.

[harmony]

It was a severe miscalculation by the giants if they figured journeyman Gausman would decline a QO...

If Nathan Eovaldi was worth four years and $68 million then fellow 6-foot-2 righthander Kevin Gausman makes sense at $18.9 million for one year.

 

Eovaldi was one year younger than Gausman's current age when Eovaldi signed the $68 million deal. At the time Eovaldi had posted 12.3 fWAR, valued at $94.1 million, in 850 innings. Gausman has posted 15.0 fWAR, valued at $119.2 million in 985 career innings.

 

Eovaldi was coming off a season with an ERA of 3.81 and ERA+ of 111 in 112 innings, including an ERA of 3.33 and ERA+ of 133 in 54 innings with the Red Sox. In the 2018 postseason Eovaldi also posted an ERA of 1.61 in 22 innings. This year Gausman posted an ERA of 3.62 and an ERA+ of 118 in 59.2 innings.

Edited December 7, 2020 by harmony

[mvp 78]

If Nathan Eovaldi was worth four years and $68 million then fellow 6-foot-2 righthander Kevin Gausman makes sense at $18.9 million for one year.

 

Eovaldi was one year younger than Gausman's current age when Eovaldi signed the $68 million deal. At the time Eovaldi had posted 12.3 fWAR, valued at $94.1 million, in 850 innings. Gausman has posted 15.0 fWAR, valued at $119.2 million in 985 career innings.

 

Eovaldi was coming off a season with an ERA of 3.81 and ERA+ of 111 in 112 innings, including an ERA of 3.33 and ERA+ of 133 in 54 innings with the Red Sox. In the 2018 postseason Eovaldi also posted an ERA of 1.61 in 22 innings. This year Gausman posted an ERA of 3.62 and an ERA+ of 118 in 59.2 innings.

 

Eovaldi is not worth his contract tho.

[notin]

Funny, yes, but I knew a kid who swore it was, "Excuse me while I kiss this guy."

 

That's one of the most famous misheard lyrics. Thousands upon thousands of people think that's what it is.

 

The most popular website devoted to misheard song lyrics even takes it's name from it - https://www.kissthisguy.com/

[notin]

I could see Feltman and Bazardo up this year. Feltman was bad in 2019, but apparently showed increased velo this year. Would be nice to see.

 

Increased velocity? Great, now hittersget to wait just that much less when drawing their walks off Feltman.

 

Feltman doesn't need velocity. He needs control and command...

[moonslav59]

That's one of the most famous misheard lyrics. Thousands upon thousands of people think that's what it is.

 

The most popular website devoted to misheard song lyrics even takes it's name from it - https://www.kissthisguy.com/

 

One that cracked me up was the same kid thought Stairway to Heaven said "There's a wino down the road..."

 

Another thought the song "Voices Carry" was saying "Was it scary?"

[mvp 78]

Increased velocity? Great, now hittersget to wait just that much less when drawing their walks off Feltman.

 

Feltman doesn't need velocity. He needs control and command...

 

He needed both. He supposedly looked really good at instructs. Again, we have NOTHING to go on.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One that cracked me up was the same kid thought Stairway to Heaven said "There's a wino down the road..."

 

Another thought the song "Voices Carry" was saying "Was it scary?"

 

JoJo left his home in Tucson, Arizona,

Bought some California grass

 

(Paul wrote it before legalization in AZ?)

[moonslav59]

JoJo left his home in Tucson, Arizona,

Bought some California grass

 

(Paul wrote it before legalization in AZ?)

 

So,

 

JoJo left his home in Fresno, California

Bought some Arizona grass.