A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

While not a move I am in favor of, it is possible the Sox move Benintendi or Verdugo to CF and sign a corner OF. Outside of Springer, the CF market really lacks any impact players with the only other possible exception being Bradley. But the corner OF market is a bit more robust and just got a little bigger with the Twins waiving of Eddie Rosario.

 

One possible and I am not even sure unlikely scenario is that the Sox bring in a LF and a RHH defensive CF (Alberto Almora? Kevin Pillar?) to be a platoon/defensive replacement/4th outfielder paired with Benintendi in CF.

 

Bringing Pillar back gives the Sox a decent option for CF if Benintendi continues to struggle. Bringing in a starting CF and a 4th outfielder capable of CF might not provide the same level of solution. I'd rather see a Rosario/Pillar/Verdugo outfield over a Pillar/Marisnick/Verdugo outfield...

 

I really think we pull off a trade for a somewhat costly CF'er who plays plus defense (Kieremaier, Inciarte, Cain) and use the salary dump aspect of the trade to also get a RP'er or starter or maybe a 2Bman or a farm upgrade. I'm thinking Chavis and or Chatham may be part of that deal, but maybe I'm dreaming. If we pull of a deal like this, we can use all our financial resources to add pitching.

[notin]

I really think we pull off a trade for a somewhat costly CF'er who plays plus defense (Kieremaier, Inciarte, Cain) and use the salary dump aspect of the trade to also get a RP'er or starter or maybe a 2Bman or a farm upgrade. I'm thinking Chavis and or Chatham may be part of that deal, but maybe I'm dreaming. If we pull of a deal like this, we can use all our financial resources to add pitching.

 

Yeah I've been floating that idea with those exact names for a while now. Of the three, I think Inciarte is the most likely since he is currently both the fourth outfielder and the highest paid outfielder on the Braves. No team wants their fourth outfielder to be their highest paid one. (Both Kiermaier and Cain make more money on longer deals, but are at least penciled in as starters.)

 

And that team is absolutely flush with pitching. Granted they won't be dealing an ace, but just about all of their starting arms represent an upgrade for Boston...

[mvp 78]

Yeah I've been floating that idea with those exact names for a while now. Of the three, I think Inciarte is the most likely since he is currently both the fourth outfielder and the highest paid outfielder on the Braves. No team wants their fourth outfielder to be their highest paid one. (Both Kiermaier and Cain make more money on longer deals, but are at least penciled in as starters.)

 

And that team is absolutely flush with pitching. Granted they won't be dealing an ace, but just about all of their starting arms represent an upgrade for Boston...

 

Rays have no problem dumping guys. They've held onto Keirmaier for a while though. Maybe they really value his CF defense?

[jad]

I really think we pull off a trade for a somewhat costly CF'er who plays plus defense (Kieremaier, Inciarte, Cain) and use the salary dump aspect of the trade to also get a RP'er or starter or maybe a 2Bman or a farm upgrade. I'm thinking Chavis and or Chatham may be part of that deal, but maybe I'm dreaming. If we pull of a deal like this, we can use all our financial resources to add pitching.

 

OK. I'm lost. How does taking on the salary a "costly" player result in a "salary dump aspect" that benefits the team taking on that contract? Like, I'm going to buy your used, overpriced Mercedes for $100K and use the money I save to get a Prius?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rays have no problem dumping guys. They've held onto Keirmaier for a while though. Maybe they really value his CF defense?

 

Could it be they also value his veteran leadership? Or is that asset just dismissed by analytics departments these days because that can't quantify it?

 

I look at the Michael Taylor signing with KC for a paltry $1.75 M the other day and imagine Bloom nodding in validation (if you're an old Sox fan, you jam those last two words together).

 

Teams are making moves every day now. The only really significant ones, barring a blockbuster trade, may be signing a QO free agent (Bauer, Springer, Realmuto, DJ). Unless a contender considers adding a reliever coming off a good year or two as significant... which, to them, it might be.

[notin]

Rays have no problem dumping guys. They've held onto Keirmaier for a while though. Maybe they really value his CF defense?

 

Maybe, although last year they acquired two centerfielders (Arozarena and Margot), so they might be looking to replace him at some point. And possibly ASAP as his contract escalates over the next 2 seasons...

[jacksonianmarch]

It also has a lot to do with his contract. He's a defense only player at a premium position who is now expensive and entering the decline phase of his speed.

[notin]

OK. I'm lost. How does taking on the salary a "costly" player result in a "salary dump aspect" that benefits the team taking on that contract? Like, I'm going to buy your used, overpriced Mercedes for $100K and use the money I save to get a Prius?

 

It doesn't. It benefits the team dumping the contract. And in order to entice another team to take the deal, the idea is they include a desirable asset. Like when the Sox were trying to get the Padres to include some of their younger pitching in a deal for Wil Myers.

 

It has been done before. In 2016, the Pirates dealt Francisco Liriano to the Blue Jays in order to dump his salary, which was nearly $27 mill for 2016 and 2017. In order to entice the Blue Jays, they also included Top 100 prospect Reese McGuire. (McGuire has yet to pan out, but the Blue Jays were able to dump Liriano on Houston for Teoscar Hernandez, which obviously did work out.)

[moonslav59]

OK. I'm lost. How does taking on the salary a "costly" player result in a "salary dump aspect" that benefits the team taking on that contract? Like, I'm going to buy your used, overpriced Mercedes for $100K and use the money I save to get a Prius?

 

The idea is you get a very good pitcher, let's say, for less of a return, because you took on a salary the other team wanted to dump. The salary dump player need not be a bad player (like Kierimaier) and can fill a need we have- like CF. The player may not even seem over-priced to a team like the Sox. Kierimaier is paid about what we paid JBJ, this year.

 

Instead of having to give up D Hern and/or Dalbec for a Rays SP'er, maybe we give up Chavis and Chatham for Kierimaier and Yarbrough or Chrinos.

 

Does that not look like a better deal for us?

[harmony]

Yeah I've been floating that idea with those exact names for a while now. Of the three, I think Inciarte is the most likely since he is currently both the fourth outfielder and the highest paid outfielder on the Braves. No team wants their fourth outfielder to be their highest paid one. (Both Kiermaier and Cain make more money on longer deals, but are at least penciled in as starters.)

 

And that team is absolutely flush with pitching. Granted they won't be dealing an ace, but just about all of their starting arms represent an upgrade for Boston...

What aboout coupling the one year and $15 million remaining on Oriole righthander Alex Cobb's contract with two years of Trey Mancini, who is projected to earn $4.8 million in 2021 as the leftfielder returns from cancer treatment?

 

Neither Cobb nor Mancini is likely to fall within Baltimore's competitive window. In 2019 Mancini posted a .291/.364/.535/.899 line with 106 runs, 35 home runs and 97 RBI.

 

The cost in trade might not be high as Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus trade values of a negative $11.6 million for Cobb and a positive $14.4 million for Mancini.

[Bellhorn04]

What aboout coupling the one year and $15 million remaining on Oriole righthander Alex Cobb's contract with two years of Trey Mancini, who is projected to earn $4.8 million in 2021 as the leftfielder returns from cancer treatment?

 

Neither Cobb nor Mancini is likely to fall within Baltimore's competitive window. In 2019 Mancini posted a .291/.364/.535/.899 line with 106 runs, 35 home runs and 97 RBI.

 

The cost in trade might not be high as Baseball Trade Values assigns median surplus trade values of a negative $11.6 million for Cobb and a positive $14.4 million for Mancini.

 

I don't think the Red Sox should be taking on one year deals with pitchers unless they're super cheap ones.

[moonslav59]

I don't think the Red Sox should be taking on one year deals with pitchers unless they're super cheap ones.

 

I don't really want a LF'er, either. We need a CF'er a good RF'er (for Fenway) and move Verdugo to CF.

 

I have never been in favor of moving Beni to CF.

 

This idea does bring up a good point. I've been looking for a CF/RF'er who is "over-priced" to the team trading him, but not bad for us plus a decent to good pitcher. Most teams do not want to part with pitchers, so maybe looking for higher-priced pitchers with a tag-along CF'er, 2Bman or good prospect may be an easier way to make this sort of deal.

 

I'm not sure the one year deal for a pitcher is the worst part of the suggested trade. We may sign someone like Kluber to a 1 year deal for about the same as Cobb is due. If we only have to give up a player with a value of 3-4, as suggested, I'd think about trading Chatham for those two.

[notin]

I don't really want a LF'er, either. We need a CF'er a good RF'er (for Fenway) and move Verdugo to CF.

 

I have never been in favor of moving Beni to CF.

 

This idea does bring up a good point. I've been looking for a CF/RF'er who is "over-priced" to the team trading him, but not bad for us plus a decent to good pitcher. Most teams do not want to part with pitchers, so maybe looking for higher-priced pitchers with a tag-along CF'er, 2Bman or good prospect may be an easier way to make this sort of deal.

 

I'm not sure the one year deal for a pitcher is the worst part of the suggested trade. We may sign someone like Kluber to a 1 year deal for about the same as Cobb is due. If we only have to give up a player with a value of 3-4, as suggested, I'd think about trading Chatham for those two.

 

In any deal where the Sox take on an unfavorable contract, they're probably more likely to get a 2B or RP than a starting pitcher. Unless that SP is already available anyway, with some prime examples being Sonny Gray, Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove...

[moonslav59]

In any deal where the Sox take on an unfavorable contract, they're probably more likely to get a 2B or RP than a starting pitcher. Unless that SP is already available anyway, with some prime examples being Sonny Gray, Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove...

 

Yes, I doubt the Rays are shopping Yarbrough or Fairbanks, especially inter-division.

 

Sonny Gray's value on Trade Values is higher than I think he's worth, so I haven't explored that option. I've made several for Tailon, including an expansion of the 3-way deal you suggested. The comments made on your trade (Vaz to TB, Edwards to TB and Taillon to the Sox) mentioned that maybe the Rays wouldn't want to pay Vaz's contract, which might seem high to them, so I add Kierimaier coming to us, and someone coming from TB to us- maybe it was Yarbrough.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, I doubt the Rays are shopping Yarbrough or Fairbanks, especially inter-division.

 

Sonny Gray's value on Trade Values is higher than I think he's worth, so I haven't explored that option. I've made several for Tailon, including an expansion of the 3-way deal you suggested. The comments made on your trade (Vaz to TB, Edwards to TB and Taillon to the Sox) mentioned that maybe the Rays wouldn't want to pay Vaz's contract, which might seem high to them, so I add Kierimaier coming to us, and someone coming from TB to us- maybe it was Yarbrough.

 

Gray couldn't pitch in the Bronx for the home team. Something tells me the pressure may not get any better there wearing red stockings as a visitor. He's on my ixnay list with Tanaka, Paxton and Happ.

[moonslav59]

Gray couldn't pitch in the Bronx for the home team. Something tells me the pressure may not get any better there wearing red stockings as a visitor. He's on my ixnay list with Tanaka, Paxton and Happ.

 

I'm not a big believer in the whole "can't pitch under pressure," but I do think some players may have that problem. It could also be that Gray was coming off an injury and had to take time to return to form or "re-invent himself."

 

I'm not for giving what the site requires for Gray. I think there are better deals like this, out there.

 

I think getting Taillon would be a good start. I don't want Polanco, but we could DFA him and the deal would still be a good one.

[Larry Cook]

Gray couldn't pitch in the Bronx for the home team. Something tells me the pressure may not get any better there wearing red stockings as a visitor. He's on my ixnay list with Tanaka, Paxton and Happ.

 

Could not agree more with your ixnay list!

 

If we do chase down a pitcher named gray, it needs to be the guy stuck in Colorado! What could he be if he ever got out of there?

[jacksonianmarch]

Gray admitted that he wilted under the pressure.

[moonslav59]

Gray admitted that he wilted under the pressure.

 

He could have had the wrong perception about himself.

 

Even if true, it does not mean he will continue to wilt under pressure, going forward. Many people learn from past experiences. (Many don't, but as the saying goes, admitting the problem is the first step towards recovery.)

[Bellhorn04]

Gray admitted that he wilted under the pressure.

 

This might require some looking into. What I read was that Gray was unhappy about the Yankees pitching coaches altering his pitch mix.

[notin]

He could have had the wrong perception about himself.

 

Even if true, it does not mean he will continue to wilt under pressure, going forward. Many people learn from past experiences. (Many don't, but as the saying goes, admitting the problem is the first step towards recovery.)

 

The bigger issue is fan perception, where they think pitching in Boston and New York is so much more difficult. There's pressure on every MLB team for every player. Don't perform and you don't get paid like you want to, or worse, the guy behind you passes you up on the depth chart...

[notin]

I'm not a big believer in the whole "can't pitch under pressure," but I do think some players may have that problem. It could also be that Gray was coming off an injury and had to take time to return to form or "re-invent himself."

 

I'm not for giving what the site requires for Gray. I think there are better deals like this, out there.

 

I think getting Taillon would be a good start. I don't want Polanco, but we could DFA him and the deal would still be a good one.

 

No one has been pushing harder for Taillon than me, but I do wonder that since he settled before arbitration, if it affects his availability.

 

I don't like Musgrove nearly as much...

[moonslav59]

No one has been pushing harder for Taillon than me, but I do wonder that since he settled before arbitration, if it affects his availability.

 

I don't like Musgrove nearly as much...

 

It's pretty sad to look at the Pirates' budget and think they are looking to cut costs.

 

I'm with you on Taillon, and think he is probably the best option out there for us, assuming Pitt does want to move him.

 

I'm okay with Musgrove, but Taillon is the better prize.

[Bellhorn04]

The bigger issue is fan perception, where they think pitching in Boston and New York is so much more difficult. There's pressure on every MLB team for every player. Don't perform and you don't get paid like you want to, or worse, the guy behind you passes you up on the depth chart...

 

I'm calling shenanigans on Jax's post about Gray. I don't think he said anything about wilting. He said they wanted him to throw too many sliders or something like that.

 

That said, Gray's home/road splits in 2018 were rather bizarre.

[mvp 78]

I'm calling shenanigans on Jax's post about Gray. I don't think he said anything about wilting. He said they wanted him to throw too many sliders or something like that.

 

That said, Gray's home/road splits in 2018 were rather bizarre.

 

And even if he did, it doesn't prove that to be the case. It's not like Maury would hand a paternity test to Pedro and say "Yup, they are your father!"

[notin]

I'm calling shenanigans on Jax's post about Gray. I don't think he said anything about wilting. He said they wanted him to throw too many sliders or something like that.

 

That said, Gray's home/road splits in 2018 were rather bizarre.

 

But it's not like the pressure-riddled New York media doesn't cover road games.

 

More likely, they were attributable to the small park...

[Bellhorn04]

But it's not like the pressure-riddled New York media doesn't cover road games.

 

More likely, they were attributable to the small park...

 

He gave up 11 HR in YS and 3 on the road. Seems like he got Porched.

[notin]

He gave up 11 HR in YS and 3 on the road. Seems like he got Porched.

 

Mystery solved.

 

Go get him, Bloom!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I know there are posters here who will argue forever against the very existence of the dreaded c-words in baseball and sports. Some of them even played the game past Little League. But if it's all a myth, how did an ex-player like Bob Tewksbury go back to college to become a Certified Mental Performance Consultant? Why do teams even have a job called Mental Skills Coach? How can The Center for Anxiety and Traumatic Stress Disorders and Complicated Grief at Massachusetts General Hospital conduct "state-of-the-art research aimed at improving the standard of care for people suffering from anxiety disorders"?

[Bellhorn04]

Mystery solved.

 

Go get him, Bloom!

 

He's got bad numbers in Fenway too though LOL

 

So did John Lackey before we signed him, I think.