A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[oldtimer]

The problem with spending every bit of cap space in 2021 is hindering Sox from signing players post 2021. It has to be the right mix. Devers and others will start to cost more in near future. I just don't see us being competitive next year based on this year's performance. Sure we'll be better. But how much better? Good enough to compete for a playoff spot better?

 

I believe the goal for 2021 is to get better but I would recommend that we stay under the competitive balance tax in 2021 and save any major push to be a major playoff threat until the 2022 season.

[moonslav59]

I believe the goal for 2021 is to get better but I would recommend that we stay under the competitive balance tax in 2021 and save any major push to be a major playoff threat until the 2022 season.

 

I'm fine with that idea, but counting on adding 2-4 solid FAs after 2021 might not be as easy as finding one or two this winter and one or two next winter.

 

Getting one or two now would help us be better in 2021 while still being a big part of 2022 and beyond.

 

I'm not for spending the whole budget on long term deals, but spending none on long term deals is going to make it hard to find true quality.

[moonslav59]

I have thought he might act as a closer for us in 2021. We paid Kimbrel an equivalent amount and he may be able to handle 1 inning assignments and stay healthy.

 

We paid Kimbrel $13M a year not $17M.

 

I do think Eovaldi may work out best as a closer, but with just 1-2 years left of team control and our rebuild maybe 1-2 years away it makes little sense to pay $17M for a closer on a team not likely to be a highly competitive team until at least 2022.

 

If we are seriously looking at making a strong run for 2022, JD, Eovaldi and maybe Bogey's last years here, then I can see holding onto him, but an argument can also be made that trading him might improve our odds in 2022, too, and better position us for beyond that year.

 

[Nick]

We paid Kimbrel $13M a year not $17M.

 

I do think Eovaldi may work out best as a closer, but with just 1-2 years left of team control and our rebuild maybe 1-2 years away it makes little sense to pay $17M for a closer on a team not likely to be a highly competitive team until at least 2022.

 

If we are seriously looking at making a strong run for 2022, JD, Eovaldi and maybe Bogey's last years here, then I can see holding onto him, but an argument can also be made that trading him might improve our odds in 2022, too, and better position us for beyond that year.

 

 

If Eovaldi is having a good year, we trade him next year. Keep churning Bloom until the deck is full. Then strike. Not ready to strike yet.

[moonslav59]

If Eovaldi is having a good year, we trade him next year. Keep churning Bloom until the deck is full. Then strike. Not ready to strike yet.

 

It's very hard to win a ring by acquiring 4-7 studs in one winter.

 

I'm not for signing a bunch of players long term, this winter, but identifying 1-2 that look to be part of our longer term plans could be added, this winter. That would lessen the pressure to add too many next winter.

 

If we sign one guy for $16M x 6 years and another for $9M x 5 years, that's only $25M out of the $70M we have to spend. Some can be spent on 1-2 years deals or "bridge" signings. We're losing $25M in salaries after 2021, so adding $25M would be covered by that for 2022.

 

We might also go very large for one guy, in hopes he leads us beyond 2022. I'm not sure a guy like Bauer or Springer fits in with our long term budget plans.

[moonslav59]

Here's the Sox Rule 5 List for this winter:

 

Christopher Acosta

Eduard Bazardo

Garrett Benge

Gary Calvo

Pedro Castellanos

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Chad De La Guerra

Jerry Downs

Jose Espada

Rio Gomez

Jay Groome

Hunter Haworth

Matt Kent

Jose Larez

Adam Lau

Dominic LoBrutto

Everlouis Lozada

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Joan Martinez

Bryan Mata

Tate Matheny

Alexander Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Emerson Ortiz

Michael Osinski

Yorvin Pantoja

Isaac Pinales

Antonio Police

Hudson Potts

Bobby Poyner

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Denyi Reyes

Jeremy Rivera

Jeisson Rosario

Jagger Rusconi

Yasel Santana

Zach Schellinger

Alex Scherff

Connor Seabold

Mike Shawaryn

Kervin Suarez

Jake Thompson

Josh Tobias

Connor Wong

 

I'm seeing about 6-9 players we may add to the 40 man roster from this list.

Edited September 20, 2020 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

For argument's sake, let's say we add Mata, Potts, Groome, Wong, Seabold and Rosario to the 40 man roster to protect them from rule 5, here's a look at what our 2021 40 man roster might look like before any additions, re-signings or trades.

 

18- Pitchers: Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Erod, Houck, Pivetta, Seabold, Godley, Weber, Mata

Barnes, D Hern, Valdez, Taylor, Brasier, Brewer, Walden, Groome

 

4- Catchers: Vazquez, Plawecki, Grullon, Wong

2- 1B: Dalbec, Chavis

4- 2B: Arrojo , Munoz + (Pedey 60 day IL)

2- 3B: Devers, Potts

1- SS: Bogey, Chatham

5- OF: Verdugo, Beni, Wilson, Puello, Rosario

1- DH: JD

 

That's 37, but guys like Chatham, Puello, Grullon and Walden could easily be added to the "bubble" list below:

 

Bubble (players currently on our 40 man roster:

Mazza, Hart, TapiaCovey, Brice, Springs, Stock, Triggs, Leyer, Kickham, Hall, Lin, Aybar, Arauz, Peraza

 

I'm not seeing a major roster crunch, this winter. We have room to acquire 6-8 players without having to clear space for them that causes us to lose anyone real promising.

Edited September 20, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Red Sox 2020 1st round pick Nick Yorke made his @PawSox debut today. He got two at bats, lining a single off Bryan Mata and walking against Robinson Leyer. Impressive debut for an 18-year-old facing the top pitching prospect in the system and a reliever with MLB experience.

[Nick]

It's very hard to win a ring by acquiring 4-7 studs in one winter.

 

I'm not for signing a bunch of players long term, this winter, but identifying 1-2 that look to be part of our longer term plans could be added, this winter. That would lessen the pressure to add too many next winter.

 

If we sign one guy for $16M x 6 years and another for $9M x 5 years, that's only $25M out of the $70M we have to spend. Some can be spent on 1-2 years deals or "bridge" signings. We're losing $25M in salaries after 2021, so adding $25M would be covered by that for 2022.

 

We might also go very large for one guy, in hopes he leads us beyond 2022. I'm not sure a guy like Bauer or Springer fits in with our long term budget plans.

 

$16M and $9M are very reasonable Moon. I'm talking about signing guys for $25M+; that I'm not in favor.

[harmony]

It's very hard to win a ring by acquiring 4-7 studs in one winter.

 

I'm not for signing a bunch of players long term, this winter, but identifying 1-2 that look to be part of our longer term plans could be added, this winter. That would lessen the pressure to add too many next winter.

 

If we sign one guy for $16M x 6 years and another for $9M x 5 years, that's only $25M out of the $70M we have to spend. Some can be spent on 1-2 years deals or "bridge" signings. We're losing $25M in salaries after 2021, so adding $25M would be covered by that for 2022.

 

We might also go very large for one guy, in hopes he leads us beyond 2022. I'm not sure a guy like Bauer or Springer fits in with our long term budget plans.

Who would be attractive candidates for those contracts (six years, $96 million; five years, $45 million)?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html

[moonslav59]

Who would be attractive candidates for those contracts (six years, $96 million; five years, $45 million)?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/2020-21-mlb-free-agents.html

 

I'm not saying I want these guys or would want us to sign them, but here are a few names (with projected salaries by thegamehaus):

 

LeMahieu $90M/4

Brantley $45M/3

Turner $25M/2 (Move Devers to 1B?)

 

Others listed on bleacherreport that might fall near those ranges:

Kirby Yates

Mike Minor

Shane Greene

Liam Hendricks

Jonathan Schoop

 

If we decide to go larger (maybe for one not 2 guys)

Tanaka

Stroman

Ozuna

Springer

 

I seriously doubt we even kick the tires on Bauer or Realmuto.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

I think the likelihood the Yanks let Tanaka or DJ walk is pretty low.

[oldtimer]

We paid Kimbrel $13M a year not $17M.

 

I do think Eovaldi may work out best as a closer, but with just 1-2 years left of team control and our rebuild maybe 1-2 years away it makes little sense to pay $17M for a closer on a team not likely to be a highly competitive team until at least 2022.

 

If we are seriously looking at making a strong run for 2022, JD, Eovaldi and maybe Bogey's last years here, then I can see holding onto him, but an argument can also be made that trading him might improve our odds in 2022, too, and better position us for beyond that year.

 

 

I can see a legitimate argument for going either way with Eovaldi. Depends a lot on what kind of deal we could cut.

[oldtimer]

For argument's sake, let's say we add Downs, Mata, Potts, Groome, Wong, Seabold and Rosario to the 40 man roster to protect them from rule 5, here's a look at what our 2021 40 man roster might look like before any additions, re-signings or trades.

 

18- Pitchers: Sale, Eovaldi, Perez, Erod, Houck, Pivetta, Seabold, Godley, Weber, Mata

Barnes, D Hern, Valdez, Taylor, Brasier, Brewer, Walden, Groome

 

4- Catchers: Vazquez, Plawecki, Grullon, Wong

2- 1B: Dalbec, Chavis

4- 2B: Arrojo , Munoz, Downs + (Pedey 60 day IL)

2- 3B: Devers, Potts

1- SS: Bogey, Chatham

5- OF: Verdugo, Beni, Wilson, Puello, Rosario

1- DH: JD

 

That's 38, but guys like Chatham, Puello, Grullon and Walden could easily be added to the "bubble" list below:

 

Bubble (players currently on our 40 man roster:

Mazza, Hart, TapiaCovey, Brice, Springs, Stock, Triggs, Leyer, Kickham, Hall, Lin, Aybar, Arauz, Peraza

 

I'm not seeing a major roster crunch, this winter. We have room to acquire 6-8 players without having to clear space for them that causes us to lose anyone real promising.

 

An outfield not including Duran would be a mistake. I assume they have held back two or three guys this year for reasons of player control and cost. Those players will be a par of spring training and some will stick.

[notin]

An outfield not including Duran would be a mistake. I assume they have held back two or three guys this year for reasons of player control and cost. Those players will be a par of spring training and some will stick.

 

Duran ended last year in Portland, where he posted a .634 OPS in 352 PA. I don't think service time is why he is not in MLB yet...

[notin]

Here's the Sox Rule 5 List for this winter:

 

Christopher Acosta

Eduard Bazardo

Garrett Benge

Gary Calvo

Pedro Castellanos

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Chad De La Guerra

Jerry Downs

Jose Espada

Rio Gomez

Jay Groome

Hunter Haworth

Matt Kent

Jose Larez

Adam Lau

Dominic LoBrutto

Everlouis Lozada

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Joan Martinez

Bryan Mata

Tate Matheny

Alexander Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Emerson Ortiz

Michael Osinski

Yorvin Pantoja

Isaac Pinales

Antonio Police

Hudson Potts

Bobby Poyner

Roniel Raudes

Austin Rei

Denyi Reyes

Jeremy Rivera

Jeisson Rosario

Jagger Rusconi

Yasel Santana

Zach Schellinger

Alex Scherff

Connor Seabold

Mike Shawaryn

Kervin Suarez

Jake Thompson

Josh Tobias

Connor Wong

 

I'm seeing about 6-9 players we may add to the 40 man roster from this list.

 

The chances the Sox add minor league 1B Jerry Downs to the 40 man roster for his age 27 season are only slightly greater than the chances they add me to it...

[notin]

I believe the goal for 2021 is to get better but I would recommend that we stay under the competitive balance tax in 2021 and save any major push to be a major playoff threat until the 2022 season.

 

Tom Werner is saying different.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/red-sox-chairman-tom-werner-we-expect-to-be-competitive-next-year.html

 

 

So.. Trevor Bauer or JT Realmuto?

[Bellhorn04]

Tom Werner is saying different.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/red-sox-chairman-tom-werner-we-expect-to-be-competitive-next-year.html

 

So.. Trevor Bauer or JT Realmuto?

 

Werner has slipped into the role former played by Lucchino. "Don't worry folks, we hate sucking too, and we're gonna keep spending for you!"

[notin]

Werner has slipped into the role former played by Lucchino. "Don't worry folks, we hate sucking too, and we're gonna keep spending for you!"

 

Somebody has to do it!!

 

It's always the most unlikable guy, probably desperately trying to be liked...

[Bellhorn04]

Tom Werner is saying different.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/red-sox-chairman-tom-werner-we-expect-to-be-competitive-next-year.html

 

 

So.. Trevor Bauer or JT Realmuto?

 

Sign Realmuto, trade Vazquez for pitching, go from there?

[notin]

Sign Realmuto, trade Vazquez for pitching, go from there?

 

I do like that idea. I think Realmuto is more likely to live up to his contract than Bauer is...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I do like that idea. I think Realmuto is more likely to live up to his contract than Bauer is...

 

I suggested trading Vazquez in a package for an MLB starting pitcher and then signing Realmuto a few weeks ago. And the main reason is...

 

...Trevor Bauer. The best free agent starting pitcher available may be the wrong man for Boston at this time. In some ways, he is a right-handed David Price. Both will or were 30 years old beginning their big contract years. Each will have or had considerable mileage on their arms by that time; Price threw a few hundred more, but Bauer threw more long toss over the centerfield wall. And finally, each retains a penchant for being outspoken. In my opinion, the latter is one of the main reasons, along with a looming no-trade clause, that Bloom was ordered to dump Price. We know Price was borderline intolerable when the Red Sox were winning, and him holding a press conference to further diss Eck just when the team appeared about to go on a roll last summer was the final straw. What we don't know is how a guy like Bauer will react to the media, fans and clubhouse in a rebuilding season or seasons after the worst summer in modern franchise history.

 

Maybe a safer bet to spend on is Liam Hendriks, the AL's top closer... depending on how much the few big market buyers are willing to invest in relievers this winter.

[Kimmi]

The consensus is that the pitching staff is in need of improvement . I am scratching my head trying to figure out how trading Eovaldi helps to achieve that . Have not come up with anything yet .

 

Trading Eovaldi for a non pitcher makes no sense to me.

[Kimmi]

Sign Realmuto, trade Vazquez for pitching, go from there?

 

I fully understand trading Vaz for pitching.

 

I am not on board with signing Realmuto to the type of contract that he will likely get.

[Kimmi]

I suggested trading Vazquez in a package for an MLB starting pitcher and then signing Realmuto a few weeks ago. And the main reason is...

 

...Trevor Bauer. The best free agent starting pitcher available may be the wrong man for Boston at this time. In some ways, he is a right-handed David Price. Both will or were 30 years old beginning their big contract years. Each will have or had considerable mileage on their arms by that time; Price threw a few hundred more, but Bauer threw more long toss over the centerfield wall. And finally, each retains a penchant for being outspoken. In my opinion, the latter is one of the main reasons, along with a looming no-trade clause, that Bloom was ordered to dump Price. We know Price was borderline intolerable when the Red Sox were winning, and him holding a press conference to further diss Eck just when the team appeared about to go on a roll last summer was the final straw. What we don't know is how a guy like Bauer will react to the media, fans and clubhouse in a rebuilding season or seasons after the worst summer in modern franchise history.

 

Maybe a safer bet to spend on is Liam Hendriks, the AL's top closer... depending on how much the few big market buyers are willing to invest in relievers this winter.

 

I would not sign Bauer to a big contract either.

 

Like many have said, this is not the year for the Sox to make splashy moves, for several reasons.

 

Find those stop gap players that will keep the team competitive in 2021. Reassess for 2022.

[Bellhorn04]

I fully understand trading Vaz for pitching.

 

I am not on board with signing Realmuto to the type of contract that he will likely get.

 

I'm looking forward to MLBTR's free agent predictions for this offseason.

[notin]

I fully understand trading Vaz for pitching.

 

I am not on board with signing Realmuto to the type of contract that he will likely get.

 

I actually am. To a point.

 

Bauer might wind up getting a contract like Price’s. And like Price’s deal, it will work out the first couple seasons.

 

I’m not so sure Realmuto commands a 7 year deal. He might, but catchers typically don’t get anywhere near that. Even 5 is almost unheard of.

 

But Realmuto is no ordinary catcher. He’s a former shortstop turned catcher who, in the event his deal is too long, would probably still be able to handle a corner INF or corner OF position adequately.

 

Five years? A no-brainer. 6 or 7 starts giving me pause...

[moonslav59]

The chances the Sox add minor league 1B Jerry Downs to the 40 man roster for his age 27 season are only slightly greater than the chances they add me to it...

 

LOL.My bad.

 

Worse, that's the second time I've done this!

[moonslav59]

I think the likelihood the Yanks let Tanaka or DJ walk is pretty low.

 

I hope they sign them both to massive longterm deals.

[moonslav59]

I actually am. To a point.

 

Bauer might wind up getting a contract like Price’s. And like Price’s deal, it will work out the first couple seasons.

 

I’m not so sure Realmuto commands a 7 year deal. He might, but catchers typically don’t get anywhere near that. Even 5 is almost unheard of.

 

But Realmuto is no ordinary catcher. He’s a former shortstop turned catcher who, in the event his deal is too long, would probably still be able to handle a corner INF or corner OF position adequately.

 

Five years? A no-brainer. 6 or 7 starts giving me pause...

 

Did Price's deal work out the first two seasons?

 

Yes, he led the league in IP year one, but 74.2 IP'd in year two was a drag.

 

ERA+

122 w TBR

136 w DET

179 w TOR

117 w BOS first 2 years combined.

 

It was year three he gave us his best:

123 ERA+ and 176 IP +26 extraordinary playoff IP.