A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

It's doubtful he gets 4, but he needs 4, because it's 50-50 the Red Sox will get much in contributions from Sale, Rodriguez, even Eovaldi. Regarding ERod, nobody -- not even medical experts -- really know when, how or if longterm Covid patients will heal... It's also too bad about Song, because he was the prospect closest to the majors a year ago, but who knows how the military obligations will delay or destroy his future chances.

 

We all know adding one free agent starting pitcher won't do much for 2021 -- but the front office knows it may be able to get away with it if there are no ticket sales or fans again. I still expect another pitcher will come via trade in a deal that hurts; that means giving up a player or players of value.

 

Even then, maybe the Sox can deal Benintendi and Vazquez each for a SP, and maybe sign one. But he isn't as likely to go all in for, say, Trevor Bauer, a man whose insistence on going year-to-year for arbitration is probably based on his desire to get paid heavily. Bloom's free agent history with Tamps is obviously limited by the budget, but when he did sing a SP, it was someone like an aging Charlie Morton. So if he goes for a short-term aging SP, who are the better candidates? A return of Jon Lester? A return of Anibal Sanchez? Cole Hamels? Jake Arrieta?

[harmony]

Perhaps the Red Sox should acquire low-cost, short-term assets in hopes that some will build up trade value to swap for prospects at the 2021 deadline.

 

It's hard for a franchise like the Red Sox to step back for a(nother) year, but spending big money in hopes of fielding a competitive 2021 team might not be a wise investment.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Even then, maybe the Sox can deal Benintendi and Vazquez each for a SP, and maybe sign one. But he isn't as likely to go all in for, say, Trevor Bauer, a man whose insistence on going year-to-year for arbitration is probably based on his desire to get paid heavily. Bloom's free agent history with Tamps is obviously limited by the budget, but when he did sing a SP, it was someone like an aging Charlie Morton. So if he goes for a short-term aging SP, who are the better candidates? A return of Jon Lester? A return of Anibal Sanchez? Cole Hamels? Jake Arrieta?

 

The offseason market will be fascinating, driven by the continued possibility of no fans and therefore little accountability to fans because of the virus. Bloom and other GMs looking to rebuild may have the opportunity to take their time and not cave to PR pressures (like pulling the trigger on a blockbuster; X and Vaz to Cleveland for Lindor and Plesac = moderate overpay).

 

Grabbing a couple of veterans like those you cited could turn out to be the best approach. And because few teams may have any money to spend -- after lost 2020 revenues -- Bloom could very well be the guy to set the market, striking early and often. Otherwise, there may be a lot of disappointed free agents...

[mvp 78]

Perhaps the Red Sox should acquire low-cost, short-term assets in hopes that some will build up trade value to swap for prospects at the 2021 deadline.

 

It's hard for a franchise like the Red Sox to step back for a(nother) year, but spending big money in hopes of fielding a competitive 2021 team might not be a wise investment.

 

They aren't going to go for a big splash this offseason. No way.

[notin]

They aren't going to go for a big splash this offseason. No way.

 

I think it depends on the market and the definition of Big Splash.

 

No way they take the rebuild another year. Not after the negative PR following the Rest Button tweet.

 

And some of the industry taking heads feel most teams will be cutting spending, but not the Sox. The best approach might be to take on the lower risk free agents for long term deals rather than jump right back in with a 7 year deal for a 30+ yo pitcher. Think more like the Cherington pre-2013 offseason as oppposed to the Dombrowski pre-2016 offseason...

[mvp 78]

I think it depends on the market and the definition of Big Splash.

 

No way they take the rebuild another year. Not after the negative PR following the Rest Button tweet.

 

And some of the industry taking heads feel most teams will be cutting spending, but not the Sox. The best approach might be to take on the lower risk free agents for long term deals rather than jump right back in with a 7 year deal for a 30+ yo pitcher. Think more like the Cherington pre-2013 offseason as oppposed to the Dombrowski pre-2016 offseason...

 

If they sign one big name player, it's not a big splash IMO. If they sign a ton of lesser known guys, it's not a big splash. I don't see them doing a Theo 2010-2011 offseason a Ben 2014-2015 offseason, or a Dombrowski 2015-2016 offseason.

[Bellhorn04]

I think it depends on the market and the definition of Big Splash.

 

No way they take the rebuild another year. Not after the negative PR following the Rest Button tweet.

 

And some of the industry taking heads feel most teams will be cutting spending, but not the Sox. The best approach might be to take on the lower risk free agents for long term deals rather than jump right back in with a 7 year deal for a 30+ yo pitcher. Think more like the Cherington pre-2013 offseason as oppposed to the Dombrowski pre-2016 offseason...

 

OTOH if other teams aren't spending maybe a guy like Bauer won't be priced as prohibitively.

[jacksonianmarch]

More likely that Bauer has a limited length to his deal, which might behoove the Sox. My bet is if Bauer doesn’t like the landscape, he’ll sign a one year deal at big money and try again

[mvp 78]

OTOH if other teams aren't spending maybe a guy like Bauer won't be priced as prohibitively.

 

Teams will be spending, just not the Sox.

[harmony]

OTOH if other teams aren't spending maybe a guy like Bauer won't be priced as prohibitively.

If Trevor Bauer signs the rumored one-year contract the righthander could be a valuable commodity at the trade deadline.

 

In a three-way deal at the trade deadline in 2019, a year and two months of Trevor Bauer netted the Cleveland Guardians Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen, Victor Nova and Scott Moss while costing the Cincinnati Reds Taylor Trammell, Puig and Moss.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bauertr01.shtml#all_transactions_other

[notin]

OTOH if other teams aren't spending maybe a guy like Bauer won't be priced as prohibitively.

 

Possible, but it always seems like these type of downturns in the market do not impact the top tier free agents as much as everyone else.

 

I think Bauer will get paid. As will Realmuto, Semien, and Springer, and possibly Ozuna and Hand.

 

The rest might be looking at paydays less than normally expected...

[Bellhorn04]

Teams will be spending, just not the Sox.

 

So the celebrated tax re-set was a fake-out?

[notin]

Teams will be spending, just not the Sox.

 

I'm not so sure there...

[mvp 78]

So the celebrated tax re-set was a fake-out?

 

I don't see them going over the cap next year. They may in 2022. Too much uncertainty in 2021 with Sale and ERod. Hard to blow your wad with all these ongoing question marks.

[mvp 78]

I'm not so sure there...

 

IMO, it'll be business as usual.

[Bellhorn04]

If Trevor Bauer signs the rumored one-year contract the righthander could be a valuable commodity at the trade deadline.

 

Who is saying a one-year contract for Bauer?

[mvp 78]

Who is saying a one-year contract for Bauer?

 

Wasn't the whole point of going year to year to gear up for a big career defining contract?

[harmony]

Who is saying a one-year contract for Bauer?

Unless Trevor Bauer's stance has changed since February 2019:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/02/14/trevor-bauer-Guardians-contracts-free-agent/2874691002/

 

Perhaps Bauer, who enters free agency for the first time this offseason, will want to sign with the Mariners because the righthander trains in the offseason at Driveline Baseball in Seattle:

 

 

 

Or not.

[Bellhorn04]

Unless Trevor Bauer's stance has changed since February 2019:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/02/14/trevor-bauer-Guardians-contracts-free-agent/2874691002/

 

Perhaps Bauer, who enters free agency for the first time this offseason, will want to sign with the Mariners because the righthander trains in the offseason at Driveline Baseball in Seattle:

 

 

 

Or not.

 

You actually raised one of the issues with signing only one-year deals. You might get traded every year!

[mvp 78]

Unless Trevor Bauer's stance has changed since February 2019:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/02/14/trevor-bauer-Guardians-contracts-free-agent/2874691002/

 

Perhaps Bauer, who enters free agency for the first time this offseason, will want to sign with the Mariners because the righthander trains in the offseason at Driveline Baseball in Seattle:

 

 

 

Or not.

 

Just as likely as him signing with his hometown Dodgers after that team again falls up short in the postseason.

[jacksonianmarch]

The idea of a one year contract is less from Bauer's ramblings and more because of a lack of money for the usual suitors due to COVID19. If he does not get an offer to his liking, he could be far better off taking a one year deal or a glorified 1-2 year deal (think JDM's contract with multiple opt outs) and re-test the market when everyone has money again

[mvp 78]

You actually raised one of the issues with signing only one-year deals. You might get traded every year!

 

The good version of Edwin Jackson? https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/leaders_most_franchises.shtml

[mvp 78]

The idea of a one year contract is less from Bauer's ramblings and more because of a lack of money for the usual suitors due to COVID19. If he does not get an offer to his liking, he could be far better off taking a one year deal or a glorified 1-2 year deal (think JDM's contract with multiple opt outs) and re-test the market when everyone has money again

 

We heard that in relation to Mookie's FA market too. The money is there. The money will always be there.

[mvp 78]

In fact, if the money is "not" there this offseason, it's 100% due to collusion.

[jacksonianmarch]

In fact, if the money is "not" there this offseason, it's 100% due to collusion.

 

Or it is due to the owners personally deciding to limit their losses. There is still a real chance that fans are either not allowed into games or will be severely limited come opening day 2021.

[harmony]

Unless Trevor Bauer's stance has changed since February 2019:

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2019/02/14/trevor-bauer-Guardians-contracts-free-agent/2874691002/

 

Perhaps Bauer, who enters free agency for the first time this offseason, will want to sign with the Mariners because the righthander trains in the offseason at Driveline Baseball in Seattle:

 

 

 

Or not.

FWIW Trevor Bauer was given the most attention in the 2019 book The MVP Machine: How Baseball's New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik:

 

https://www.powells.com/book/mvp-machine-how-baseballs-new-nonconformists-are-using-data-to-build-better-players-9781541698949

[harmony]

Perhaps the Red Sox should acquire low-cost, short-term assets in hopes that some will build up trade value to swap for prospects at the 2021 deadline.

 

It's hard for a franchise like the Red Sox to step back for a(nother) year, but spending big money in hopes of fielding a competitive 2021 team might not be a wise investment.

A comparative progression:

 

2018: Boston 108-54 (.667); Seattle: 89-73 (.549)

2019: Boston 84-78 (.519); Seattle 68-94 (.420)

2020: Boston 17-31 (.354); Seattle 22-26 (.458)

 

Coming off an 89-win season in 2018, the Seattle Mariners made the difficult decision to "step back" in light of the daunting forecasts for the Houston Astros and the Oakland Athletics. The Mariners jettisoned Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano and Mike Zunino, who had combined for 16.0 fWAR in 2018.

 

The Red Sox must assess their chances of competing in 2021 against the likes of the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.

[mvp 78]

Does anyone else quote themselves more than harmony?

 

No.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

The Pirates seem to be running away with the #1 pick after their doubleheader sweep yesterday. Did some draft reading last night, while #2 would be nice, it’s not the end of the world. I don’t think Leiter is a lock to go there at all, for the Sox or any other team. Top 5 is key.

 

I know some people on here believe MLB will combine '19 and '20 records for the draft, but that hasn't been confirmed at all.

[notin]

A comparative progression:

 

2018: Boston 108-54 (.667); Seattle: 89-73 (.549)

2019: Boston 84-78 (.519); Seattle 68-94 (.420)

2020: Boston 17-31 (.354); Seattle 22-26 (.458)

 

Coming off an 89-win season in 2018, the Seattle Mariners made the difficult decision to "step back" in light of the daunting forecasts for the Houston Astros and the Oakland Athletics. The Mariners jettisoned Edwin Diaz, James Paxton, Jean Segura, Robinson Cano and Mike Zunino, who had combined for 16.0 fWAR in 2018.

 

The Red Sox must assess their chances of competing in 2021 against the likes of the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.

 

Always a bid idea, IMO. Those teams could have been easily derailed by injuries. And even in the face of a third place finish, slapped their fans in the face by saying "Why watch a good team now when you can gamble we might have one in the future?"