A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

The Bloom supporters were quick to give him a pass for this season's horror show . Now it looks like they are already giving him a pass for next season as well . How long will this go on ? Four years , five years ? Some of us may not live that long.

 

This Horror Show is the third most expensive team in MLB. Bloom didn’t spend that money....

[dgalehouse]

I just think the trust in Bloom is misplaced . Fifteen years in the game , never won a championship . Now his plan is to pretty much start from scratch with the Sox. I don't have much confidence in the guy . Not trying to argue with anybody . I just think Bloom is a small market guy who has become overrated .

[Bellhorn04]

I just think the trust in Bloom is misplaced . Fifteen years in the game , never won a championship . Now his plan is to pretty much start from scratch with the Sox. I don't have much confidence in the guy . Not trying to argue with anybody . I just think Bloom is a small market guy who has become overrated .

 

Of course you're trying to argue, Denny. You repeatedly point to the team's record this year and talk about how "Bloom supporters" will back him no matter what.

 

It's fine to argue, we all do it here.

[dgalehouse]

Of course you're trying to argue, Denny. You repeatedly point to the team's record this year and talk about how "Bloom supporters" will back him no matter what.

 

It's fine to argue, we all do it here.

 

Well , the team's record should count for something . The results have to count for something . It can't be all about the process . Maybe I just don't have the patience for five year plans . Bloom has not earned the " In Bloom we trust " faith . This is his team now . And it is not good . I do hope it is better next year .

[notin]

I just think the trust in Bloom is misplaced . Fifteen years in the game , never won a championship . Now his plan is to pretty much start from scratch with the Sox. I don't have much confidence in the guy . Not trying to argue with anybody . I just think Bloom is a small market guy who has become overrated .

 

15 years but all with Tampa. Where budget proposals go to die.

 

He did keep that seemingly irrelevant team competitive.

 

I think Dombrowski is overrated. Any bozo can win when handed a top notch farm system and a $220 million dollar budget. Doing it without destroying the future is the trick (and really, not even a tough trick)...

Edited September 7, 2020 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

15 years but all with Tampa. Where budget proposals go to die.

 

He did keep that seemingly irrelevant team competitive.

 

I think Dombrowski is overrated. Any bozo can win when handed a top notch farm system and a $220 million dollar budget. Doing it without destroying the future is the trick (and really, not even a tough trick)...

 

And I don't think DD "destroyed the future". If all goes well, the only destroyed season will be 2020.

[notin]

And I don't think DD "destroyed the future". If all goes well, the only destroyed season will be 2020.

 

 

Like how Detroit had just the one bad year?

[Bellhorn04]

Like how Detroit had just the one bad year?

 

Well, now you're arguing with yourself, because you were just saying we should be competitive or contenders next year.

[Bellhorn04]

As far as DD being "overrated"...it seems to me he left Boston, like many before him, with his reputation in pretty bad shape. Not only a destroyer of farms but a terrible communicator...

[notin]

Well, now you're arguing with yourself, because you were just saying we should be competitive or contenders next year.

 

I think we can, but not because of Dombrowski.

 

Had DD not been fired and was still running this team, what do you suppose it would look like?

[notin]

As far as DD being "overrated"...it seems to me he left Boston, like many before him, with his reputation in pretty bad shape. Not only a destroyer of farms but a terrible communicator...

 

Is that how Epstein left Boston?

[Bellhorn04]

I think we can, but not because of Dombrowski.

 

Had DD not been fired and was still running this team, what do you suppose it would look like?

 

I don't think that's the point. The point is where did he leave the team for the next guy. It was bad, but far from destroyed.

[Bellhorn04]

Is that how Epstein left Boston?

 

Not Epstein, no, but many others.

[notin]

Not Epstein, no, but many others.

 

Dombrowski, Duquette and who?

[notin]

I don't think that's the point. The point is where did he leave the team for the next guy. It was bad, but far from destroyed.

 

It was a $220mill .500 team with no farm system...

[dgalehouse]

15 years but all with Tampa. Where budget proposals go to die.

 

He did keep that seemingly irrelevant team competitive.

 

I think Dombrowski is overrated. Any bozo can win when handed a top notch farm system and a $220 million dollar budget. Doing it without destroying the future is the trick (and really, not even a tough trick)...

 

It is not so easy to stay on top for several years while maintaining a strong farm . The system is designed to make it a " tough trick." Anyway , I'm not the kind of fan who is content with losing as long as I can say , " The future looks bright ."

[Bellhorn04]

Dombrowski, Duquette and who?

 

Not just GM's. Francona. A number of players. It's often been mentioned how the Red Sox have a tendency to smear people on the way out.

[Bellhorn04]

It was a $220mill .500 team with no farm system...

 

You know there's more to it than that. That's why you know we can contend again next year.

 

DD didn't leave with many indisputably bad contracts on the books. I think Ben actually left with more bad contracts on the books than DD did.

[moonslav59]

What's a little silly is how political this stuff can get.

 

dgalehouse launches an attack against the 'Bloom supporters'.

 

moon hits right back against the 'DD supporters'.

 

Come on folks, does everything have to work that way - you're either in one camp or the other? It strikes me as a little weird.

 

I thought the state of this team being more DD's fault than Bloom's needed to be stated.

 

I had my issues with DD, but we won a ring, and I'm glad he was our GM for that reason, despite the fallout.

 

I don't see it as political.

 

I support every Sox GM, until they earn my criticism. Also, being critical does not mean I hate the guy or want him removed.

 

I hated seeing Theo go but it seemed like it just "had to be."

I hated seeing Ben go before his "plan" had a chance to come to fruition.

I thought DD had to go, due to the situation we were in and the type of GM needed to rebuild.

I'm a "Bloom supporter," but really, I don't know much about him, except his rep as GM that can find cheap gems in the rough and build winners with low budgets. He seemed like the type of guy we needed. As for giving him "a pass," I'm not sure that's what many of us have done. We expected a down year, due to where DD left us and the reset priority given to Bloom. I will say, I had hoped we'd have already seen some Bloom "gems" discovered already, and maybe he has found some in Valdez, Munoz & Perez, but the vast majority of his acquisitions have not worked out. Given the budget he had to work with, I'm not ready to pounce all over him for not working a miracle overnight. If that's giving him a pass, I'm guilty as charged.

 

Assuming he's given a higher budget to work with this winter and next year, I expect a vast improvement in 2021. I'm not expecting a top 6 or 8 team, but maybe a top 8-12 and then top 4-8 in 2022. I'll be right there with criticism, if his moves fail, but I just don't see all that much to criticize, this year. He took a few shots in the dark and failed (Peraza, paying JBJ that much, all the pitching moves except Perez...), but expecting miracles with very little spending room is not realistic.

 

I'm glad we got DD. I'm not sure Ben would have gotten us a ring, but I'm also not going to sugar coat what he did to get us that ring. I knew the cliff was coming, and I was okay with it, because of 2018.

 

We are paying the price of 2018, now. I don't blame Bloom for that at all.

[moonslav59]

Why not a competitor?

 

Never underestimate the impact of money.

 

There are many MLB talking heads who think a lot of teams will dial back spending next year, and not just on free agents. Normal no-brainer team options might be declined. Players you didn’t expect to see it happen to get non-tendered. (None of these possibilities are my interpretation; all were mentioned accompanied by names). This season has had a poor financial impact on A LOT of teams and there might be repercussions. One team no one thinks will is the Red Sox.

 

The Sox do need a big influx in talent. But this might be the year to find one...

 

I said "not likely a top contender." I'm not writing off 2021, but I'm also not going to set my expectations on us being top contenders a year after being one of baseball's worst teams.

 

If Bloom gets $70-90M to spend this winter, and that is not a given, yes, we could be a top 4-8 team, but virtually every signing would have to work, and Sale, ERod and Eovaldi (or at least 2 of them) would have to shine in 2021.

 

I'm thinking 2022 is more realistic and by going for broke in 2021, we may actually do harm to our chances in 2022 and beyond.

 

My plan would be to try really hard to get 2-4 players, this winter, that will carry us from 2022 and beyond. The rest of the money can be spent on 1-2 year deals to fill gaps and make us respectable in 2021. If everything works out, we could compete in 2021, if not, we have fresh spending space after 2021, with the 1 year deals expiring and Pedey & others' deals coming off the books.

 

Trying to load up on 4-8 of the best FAs, this winter, which normally means longer term deals may put our longer term chances at risk, if too many are busts.

[notin]

Not just GM's. Francona. A number of players. It's often been mentioned how the Red Sox have a tendency to smear people on the way out.

 

There is a difference between getting smeared on the way out the door and actually having a bad reputation.

 

Francona, for example, clearly still had a stellar one. He had a job offer before that same door slammed shut. Duquette, on the other hand, was unemployed for several years before Baltimore gave him another chance...

[moonslav59]

And I don't think DD "destroyed the future". If all goes well, the only destroyed season will be 2020.

 

That's a big "if," and you are also counting 2019 as not being "destroyed." Sure, we had a good team, on paper, and injuries doomed us, but we sucked, and that's on DD a lot more than this year's team should be "on Bloom."

 

I doubt we are a top contender in 2021. If Bloom works some magic, we can be, but it looks, to me, like 3 bad year in a row. (2019-2021).

 

Being the worst or second worst team in MLB is the "cliff"many of us saw coming, and many others denied could or would happen.

 

To me, it is most certainly "on DD." Like I said, I'm not bashing DD for what he did. I was onboard for most of his moves, and he was only making sure we ended up being good enough to win a ring. Kimmie and others think he went overboard, and I don't necessarily disagree, but in baseball, nothing is a sure bet, so overkill wins rings. The price of that "overkill"is being paid for now. I'm okay with that. That 2018 season was very special. What a great team!

 

Yes, it sucks going through a cliff, but to me, it's worth it.

 

I have faith in Bloom to rebuild us, quickly. Maybe he will meet the same fate as Ben and be dumped before his plan is completed, and we'll hire another DD type to get us over the hump, once the farm is strong, again. (I hope not, but rings are rings.)

[moonslav59]

As far as DD being "overrated"...it seems to me he left Boston, like many before him, with his reputation in pretty bad shape. Not only a destroyer of farms but a terrible communicator...

 

Dan Duquette left Theo a good foundation. Theo, not so good, but not really bad, either- certainly better than DD left Bloom. Ben left DD a fantastic base to work with.

 

To me, what DD left Bloom is way worse than any GM has left his replacement since before Duquette.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski, Duquette and who?

 

Ben left a better foundation than anyone else, and Duquette left Theo a very nice foundation. Theo left Ben with enough to cobble together a ring while rebuilding the farm for DD.

 

DD left Bloom with bare cupboards and bloated contracts of aging stars.

 

Yes, Bloom was handed Betts, JD, Bogey, Devers and a couple promising prospects, but that was about it.

[moonslav59]

Not just GM's. Francona. A number of players. It's often been mentioned how the Red Sox have a tendency to smear people on the way out.

 

Yes, they do. I think part of it is the merciless Boston media that demands reasons for every action taken.

 

The Tito parting was hurtful, and fans demanded answers. Tito had lost control of the team. As great as he was, it can happen, and it did.

 

The team could have kept everything quiet, and in many ways, that would have been the classy thing to do. We have not always placed being classy as a top priority. I agree.

 

In baseball, it seems like everybody seems to try to save face, even if it means tearing down decent people. It's sad, but it seems like the nature of the business.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Dombrowski had -- and used -- a lot of resources. Not all moves worked out, but he was decisive and determined. His first target and prize was the best closer on the block -- Kimbrel. But he didn't stop there with the bullpen; people forget just how good Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg were when Dombro traded for them -- each was a 2.4 bWAR (Kimbrel was 1.3), which is great for a relief pitcher. That the Sox got very little contributions from those two and still had a franchise-best season, when even Kimbrel broke down at the end, is a testament to management (including Cora's use of "rovers" in the postseason).

 

Contrast the above with the recent Brian Cashman posts (on the Yankee thread?). Cashman basically did what Dombro tried, stockpiling the best relievers available over and over; remember, NY had "the greatest bullpen of all time" the past few years... but with no rings.

[moonslav59]

Dombrowski had -- and used -- a lot of resources. Not all moves worked out, but he was decisive and determined. His first target and prize was the best closer on the block -- Kimbrel. But he didn't stop there with the bullpen; people forget just how good Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg were when Dombro traded for them -- each was a 2.4 bWAR (Kimbrel was 1.3), which is great for a relief pitcher. That the Sox got very little contributions from those two and still had a franchise-best season, when even Kimbrel broke down at the end, is a testament to management (including Cora's use of "rovers" in the postseason).

 

Contrast the above with the recent Brian Cashman posts (on the Yankee thread?). Cashman basically did what Dombro tried, stockpiling the best relievers available over and over; remember, NY had "the greatest bullpen of all time" the past few years... but with no rings.

 

I loved the Sale deal, as everyone knows.

 

I liked the Thornburg and Smith deals.

 

I thought we gave too much for Kimbrel, but he was the best available, as was Price as a FA. (I wish DD did not "throw in" Allen.)

 

I did not like the Pom trade and a few other more minor deals, but when you want to make sure you win a ring, overkill is usually needed.

[vegasbob]

I expect us to be over .500 next year, and if things go well with Sale, ERod and Eovaldi we could be in the playoffs.

 

I expect a highly competitive team by 2022.

 

I'd also like to add that the DD supporters were quick to deny the coming of "the cliff." It's here, and it ain't Bloom's fault.

 

Your second sentence is much more grounded in reality than the first. Hoping for Sale and Erod to be significant factors in 2021 is just that hope, given that Sale won't be ready until mid-summer.

 

Elsewhere you say that 2021 FA signings or trades need to include some multi-year key players. Absolutely, since 2021 will be highly unpredictable , given the base we are starting from.

 

One given, IMO, is that JDM will not exercise his departure option and will stay in Boston for 2021. Very unlikley the winter market will feature big money and term deals for 33 year old one dimensional guys. JD needs to take his $22million and swing away on 3-0 for Boston.

[vegasbob]

To me the summary on DD's reign vs any other GM is that when Sale and Erod went out of commission, and Workman/Hembree were traded, there was not ONE starter at AA or higher , nor a BP reliever who could be brought up and perform even at minimal level. Phillips Valdez suddenly isn't all that, and neither is Josh Taylor/Marcus Walden.

 

The pitching cupboard was truly bare, and the bus went off the cliff .

[moonslav59]

Your second sentence is much more grounded in reality than the first. Hoping for Sale and Erod to be significant factors in 2021 is just that hope, given that Sale won't be ready until mid-summer.

 

Elsewhere you say that 2021 FA signings or trades need to include some multi-year key players. Absolutely, since 2021 will be highly unpredictable , given the base we are starting from.

 

One given, IMO, is that JDM will not exercise his departure option and will stay in Boston for 2021. Very unlikley the winter market will feature big money and term deals for 33 year old one dimensional guys. JD needs to take his $22million and swing away on 3-0 for Boston.

 

Well, my first sentence did not say anything about me expecting Sale, ERod and Eovaldi to come up large. I just said "if they do" I expect us to be over .500. I realize that's a big if.

 

I think we may trade Eovaldi and JD next summer.