A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

This may no longer be a good gauge in modern pro baseball, but I like to look at walks to strikeouts when considering a prospect. Both Dalbec and Casas walk less than half the time they K; Chavis whiffed more than three times as much as walked in the minors.

 

In contrast, Mookie walked more than he struck out before he made the majors. So did the Greek God (Jewish Messiah), Yook. Wade Boggs was somehow left in the minors for six seasons when he walked over twice as many times as he fanned.

 

I do think the K:BB ratio is important, but to me, as long as the BB% and OBP is respectable, the K's don't hurt as much.

 

I think player A &B have value enough to stick around:

 

A 240K/120 BB

.360 OBP (25+ HRs)

 

B 240K/80 BB

.360 OBP (25+ Hrs) -higher BA than A

 

C 240K/80 BB

.320 OBP (25+ HRs)

[oldtimer]

Here's my opinions:

 

While Chavis offers some value as 2B/3B depth, I think we will end up keeping just one. Sure, one could end up at DH once JD is gone, and we could probably find enough ABs for both of them at 1B, 2B, DH and 3B over the next few years, but both bat RH'd.

 

I prefer we keep Dalbec. He has better numbers in the minors and is a much better defender. Chavis has more ML experience, but I'm not sure what we've seen is a plus for him over Dalbec. To me, his ability to play 2B, and the jury is still out on how well, is his only plus.

 

Next, is a point I have brought up a few times before with very little support from other posters. I'd like to give Ockimey a shot at winning a platoon role with whoever we keep from Chavis & Dalbec- assuming we trade the other. Here is alook at their splits:

vs RHP/vs LHP (year)

Ockimey:

.898/.535 (2019) AAA

.968/.586 (2018) AA

.844/.786 (2017) A+

Dalbec:

.794/.904 (2019) AA

.868/.701 (2018) AA

.970/.881 (2018) A+

Chavis:

.540/.700 (2020) MLB (96 PAs total)

.774/.742 (2019) MLB

.880/.964 (2018) AA (only had 113 career PAs at AAA level)

.846/.602 (2017) AA

 

Maybe an Ockimey-Dalbec 1B platoon would work best.

 

Finally, 2B: I don't see Chavis as our long term 2Bman, but if his bat come back and he continues to look decent on defense (too soon to know), maybe he could end up being the best we have, until Downs is ready to challenge. Arauz, Chatham, Lin and Peraza do not excite me at much at all. Arauz-Peraza might be the best we have for 2021. Maybe Downs could jump to the bigs mid-sesason, but we should not count on it.

 

(Pitching remains our major concern area.)

 

 

I am all for giving Munoz, Dalbec, Chavis and possibly Chatham as much PT this season as possible so we can get a look at who we want to keep and who we will trade. I don't know how Okimey fits into all of this as they have made no inferences about bring him up for a look this year. We could well see Peralta, JBJ, Lin, Arauz and one of Chavis or Dalbec gone for 2021, which means we need to carefully evaluate options. I don't think there will be enough resources to upgrade our pitching needs and deal with weaknesses in our position player roster. I favor spending on pitching this off season.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

 

(Pitching remains our major concern area.)

 

 

No doubt. They will have resources to at least build a respectable MLB rotation. Boston could certainly do what Toronto did this season, and get six new starters similar to Ryu, Roark, Anderson, Walker, Stripling and Ray.

 

Another aspect I keep harping on is defense. Since there doesn't appear to be many lights-out arms available -- unless they get one in a major trade -- the D will be key. A tight defense is essential behind a so-so staff, because a team can't always count on its offense to outbash foes. But good gloves can optimize mediocre pitching and keep games close...

 

Of the core, Verdugo is solid. Vazquez, Bogaerts and Devers provide average D, mixing spectacular plays with some below-average moments. To compensate, the Sox should really look to shore up the leather at first and second, and get a JBJ type to replace JBJ in center. Sanchez, Schoop, Hernandez, Marisnick, Taylor are names of some platoon types that may be on the block. Can anyone find a young Moreland somewhere?

[moonslav59]

I am all for giving Munoz, Dalbec, Chavis and possibly Chatham as much PT this season as possible so we can get a look at who we want to keep and who we will trade. I don't know how Okimey fits into all of this as they have made no inferences about bring him up for a look this year. We could well see Peralta, JBJ, Lin, Arauz and one of Chavis or Dalbec gone for 2021, which means we need to carefully evaluate options. I don't think there will be enough resources to upgrade our pitching needs and deal with weaknesses in our position player roster. I favor spending on pitching this off season.

 

 

I think I'm alone on thinking it wouldn't hurt to give Ockimey a pretty long look. They guy has killed righties for years.

 

My thinking is that we will likely spend most of our resources on pitching, and it would really help, if we could fill 1B, 2B or both from withing the system. We have the rest of this year and next to let it play out, but we may have to trade 1 or 2 of the candidates before letting the rest fight it out. Maybe nobody steps up, but at least we'll know that at some point in 2021. If just one can prove he belongs and another shows he can be a useful utility player, it could be a huge push.

 

I would not be surprised, however, if Bloom signs some cheap 1B & 2B options to help make us more respectable for 2021, and we'll know less about what we have from the farm that can help or prove they don't belong.

[moonslav59]

No doubt. They will have resources to at least build a respectable MLB rotation. Boston could certainly do what Toronto did this season, and get six new starters similar to Ryu, Roark, Anderson, Walker, Stripling and Ray.

 

Another aspect I keep harping on is defense. Since there doesn't appear to be many lights-out arms available -- unless they get one in a major trade -- the D will be key. A tight defense is essential behind a so-so staff, because a team can't always count on its offense to outbash foes. But good gloves can optimize mediocre pitching and keep games close...

 

Of the core, Verdugo is solid. Vazquez, Bogaerts and Devers provide average D, mixing spectacular plays with some below-average moments. To compensate, the Sox should really look to shore up the leather at first and second, and get a JBJ type to replace JBJ in center. Sanchez, Schoop, Hernandez, Marisnick, Taylor are names of some platoon types that may be on the block. Can anyone find a young Moreland somewhere?

 

I'm always high on D.

 

I think we can improve our CF defense at a low cost.

I think Dalbec can be a plus defender at 1B in a short period of time and maybe become better than plus.

I like Arauz's defense at 2B and am not sure about Chatham, but moving from SS to 2B could be what is best for him. Chavis has decent defensive numbers at 2B, but the sample size is too small to judge. My guess is he will not be a plus on D.

I don't see Vaz and Bogey as being plus. Devers showed signs of becoming plus, but he still has too many lapses on D- mostly throwing.

I like Verdugo. Beni is average in LF.

 

If we can sign a great defensive CF for cheap, which means no bat, that would help on run prevention. Arauz and Dalbec on the right side of the IF should be plus, making our total IF about average.

 

Plus OF, Avg IF, Meh catcher.

 

Add some pitching: quality and quantity.

 

If we look like we can compete in 2021, make some deadline trades, but I'm thinking 2022 should be the main focus.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm always high on D.

 

Plus OF, Avg IF, Meh catcher.

 

Add some pitching: quality and quantity.

 

 

You just described the best Red Sox team in franchise history, the 2018 world champs.

[notin]

No on Ockimey.

 

You can probably get a LHH platoon (Murphy? Shaw?) cheap enough...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No on Ockimey.

 

You can probably get a LHH platoon (Murphy? Shaw?) cheap enough...

 

This team needs a platoon first sacker who can flash the leather -- someone between Mientkiewicz and Pearce (who made the greatest stretch in Sox history... or was it a scoop).

[notin]

This team needs a platoon first sacker who can flash the leather -- someone between Mientkiewicz and Pearce (who made the greatest stretch in Sox history... or was it a scoop).

 

Yeah. That’s high on the list...

[moonslav59]

No on Ockimey.

 

You can probably get a LHH platoon (Murphy? Shaw?) cheap enough...

 

I'm not sold on Ockimey, but why not let him play and get a better sense of what he has to offer?

 

I'm not pretending to know more than the Sox brass, and maybe they already know.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah. That’s high on the list...

 

Well, I'm not sure the Red Sox new budget can afford all of these needs at once: four MLB starting pitchers, another four MLB relievers, another four contact hitters who can run first to third without getting thrown out every game, and a few more power hitters to drive them in.

 

A phrase often associated with good teams is "pitching and defense" not "pitching and all-or-nothing swingers". You mentioned solid defensive guys like Taylor and Schoop, which I agree with... Murphy, a below-average fielder, not so much.

[moonslav59]

To me, our top priorities are as such (in order of importance):

1. SP (Solid #1 or 2 type, but we may wait a year on getting an ace)

2. SP (Solid #2 or 3 type- a must if #1 is put off a year)

3. Closer

4. Solid set up RP'er

5. CF (defensive)

6. 2B

7. 1B

8. RP

9. SP depth (#3, if #1 is put off a year)

10. OF depth

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To me, our top priorities are as such (in order of importance):

1. SP (Solid #1 or 2 type, but we may wait a year on getting an ace)

2. SP (Solid #2 or 3 type- a must if #1 is put off a year)

3. Closer

4. Solid set up RP'er

5. CF (defensive)

6. 2B

7. 1B

8. RP

9. SP depth (#3, if #1 is put off a year)

10. OF depth

 

 

1. yes, 2. yes, 2c and 2d. yes (if Toronto can get six new starters in one year, then Bloom can), 3 and 4. yup, 5-7 -- yes, but all should be defensively sound.

 

As for possible call-ups, I'll be disgusted if they don't bring up a guy like Duran -- their best outfield prospect -- because he's "not ready", while balls keep bouncing off Peraza. Just tell us "we don't want to start his arbitration clock too early".

[Bellhorn04]

1. yes, 2. yes, 2c and 2d. yes (if Toronto can get six new starters in one year, then Bloom can), 3 and 4. yup, 5-7 -- yes, but all should be defensively sound.

 

As for possible call-ups, I'll be disgusted if they don't bring up a guy like Duran -- their best outfield prospect -- because he's "not ready", while balls keep bouncing off Peraza. Just tell us "we don't want to start his arbitration clock too early".

 

2020 is not the year to be starting any clocks though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2020 is not the year to be starting any clocks though.

 

No, I was referring to next year.

[Bellhorn04]

No, I was referring to next year.

 

OK. When you mentioned Peraza I thought you meant this year. Not sure if he'll be back next year or not.

[moonslav59]

1. yes, 2. yes, 2c and 2d. yes (if Toronto can get six new starters in one year, then Bloom can), 3 and 4. yup, 5-7 -- yes, but all should be defensively sound.

 

As for possible call-ups, I'll be disgusted if they don't bring up a guy like Duran -- their best outfield prospect -- because he's "not ready", while balls keep bouncing off Peraza. Just tell us "we don't want to start his arbitration clock too early".

 

If we have $70M to spend (keeping us under the limit) or $90M (keeping us under the 2nd tax line), we could spend the money this way:

 

$22-28M SP

$12-14M SP

$10-12M Closer

$6-8M RP'er

$6-8M SP

$6-8M CF

$6-8M 2B

$6-8M 1B

$6M bench

 

This assuming we don't trade away any salary (like Eovaldi), but there is room to spend and build a good team by 2021.

[notin]

OK. When you mentioned Peraza I thought you meant this year. Not sure if he'll be back next year or not.

 

He is arb eligible.

 

I do not care if he comes back, unless it's as a starter...

[notin]

If we have $70M to spend (keeping us under the limit) or $90M (keeping us under the 2nd tax line), we could spend the money this way:

 

$22-28M SP

$12-14M SP

$10-12M Closer

$6-8M RP'er

$6-8M SP

$6-8M CF

$6-8M 2B

$6-8M 1B

$6M bench

 

This assuming we don't trade away any salary (like Eovaldi), but there is room to spend and build a good team by 2021.

 

Honestly, if things work out, they could be good next year. Not with this roster, however...

[moonslav59]

Honestly, if things work out, they could be good next year. Not with this roster, however...

 

Good but not likely a top contender.

 

That's why every signing beyond one year should be geared towards being highly competitive by 2022 or 2023.

 

A few one year deals may help us be good for 2021, but we should look to make 2-3 key acquisitions geared towards the long term.

 

The fate of ERod, Sale and Eovaldi will be a big factor in 2021.

[dgalehouse]

The Bloom supporters were quick to give him a pass for this season's horror show . Now it looks like they are already giving him a pass for next season as well . How long will this go on ? Four years , five years ? Some of us may not live that long.

[moonslav59]

I expect us to be over .500 next year, and if things go well with Sale, ERod and Eovaldi we could be in the playoffs.

 

I expect a highly competitive team by 2022.

 

I'd also like to add that the DD supporters were quick to deny the coming of "the cliff." It's here, and it ain't Bloom's fault.

[Bellhorn04]

The Bloom supporters were quick to give him a pass for this season's horror show . Now it looks like they are already giving him a pass for next season as well . How long will this go on ? Four years , five years ? Some of us may not live that long.

 

Ah yes, "the Bloom supporters". The brainwashed nerds waving the pompoms for Chaim no matter what he does and no matter how the team sucks.

 

Personally, I supported DD when he was here, and I'm supporting Bloom now. I generally believe you should support the current guy because you don't have much choice in the matter.

[Kimmi]

The Bloom supporters were quick to give him a pass for this season's horror show . Now it looks like they are already giving him a pass for next season as well . How long will this go on ? Four years , five years ? Some of us may not live that long.

 

Are you not a Bloom supporter? Do you want Dombrowski back?

[Kimmi]

I expect us to be over .500 next year, and if things go well with Sale, ERod and Eovaldi we could be in the playoffs.

 

I expect a highly competitive team by 2022.

 

I'd also like to add that the DD supporters were quick to deny the coming of "the cliff." It's here, and it ain't Bloom's fault.

 

^^^

[Kimmi]

Ah yes, "the Bloom supporters". The brainwashed nerds waving the pompoms for Chaim no matter what he does and no matter how the team sucks.

 

Personally, I supported DD when he was here, and I'm supporting Bloom now. I generally believe you should support the current guy because you don't have much choice in the matter.

 

Well, I think we all support whatever GM is here as far as hoping that his moves work out. We don't have much choice.

 

Supporting a GM as far as the types of moves he makes is a whole different story.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Are you not a Bloom supporter? Do you want Dombrowski back?

 

Yes and no. Bloom seems like the kinda guy needed for the future, Dombro was the perfect guy for the past... and every new day is a present (and Gyrobat just wants his leg to heal so he can keep swinging).

[Bellhorn04]

Well, I think we all support whatever GM is here as far as hoping that his moves work out. We don't have much choice.

 

Supporting a GM as far as the types of moves he makes is a whole different story.

 

We all see some things differently.

[Bellhorn04]

What's a little silly is how political this stuff can get.

 

dgalehouse launches an attack against the 'Bloom supporters'.

 

moon hits right back against the 'DD supporters'.

 

Come on folks, does everything have to work that way - you're either in one camp or the other? It strikes me as a little weird.

[notin]

Good but not likely a top contender.

 

That's why every signing beyond one year should be geared towards being highly competitive by 2022 or 2023.

 

A few one year deals may help us be good for 2021, but we should look to make 2-3 key acquisitions geared towards the long term.

 

The fate of ERod, Sale and Eovaldi will be a big factor in 2021.

 

Why not a competitor?

 

Never underestimate the impact of money.

 

There are many MLB talking heads who think a lot of teams will dial back spending next year, and not just on free agents. Normal no-brainer team options might be declined. Players you didn’t expect to see it happen to get non-tendered. (None of these possibilities are my interpretation; all were mentioned accompanied by names). This season has had a poor financial impact on A LOT of teams and there might be repercussions. One team no one thinks will is the Red Sox.

 

The Sox do need a big influx in talent. But this might be the year to find one...