Sox still negotiating for Myers

[moonslav59]

A fine way to talk about your 'favorite player'.

 

He may have been worth close to $6-8M on defense only, in his prime, but he's not worth $10M on defense, now.

 

I think people short-change his offensive value.

 

I'll be happy watching JBJ in CF, this year, especially, if the other choice was Beni, and since we are resetting, his $11M does not bother me.

 

The only way his contract bothers me, is if it is preventing us from getting a fine pitcher.

 

JBJ is still my favorite player with Devers on the rise.

[Slasher9]

Nope. Not even when he was prime.

 

Fangraphs value would like a word with you.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF#value

[moonslav59]

Question for you moon:

 

If elite outfield defense isn't worth $10 million a year,

 

Why the heck do you think Mookie is worth $35 million a year?

 

Especially keeping in mind he has an .858 OPS away from Fenway, which is hardly elite.

 

The away OPS does not scare me, because he'd be playing half his games in Fenway, and .858 is one of our best away OPS. He also has speed on the bases and is a better defender than JBJ, especially in 2019 and the expected beyond. JBJ has declined, slightly on D, Betts seems to be getting better.

[jacksonianmarch]

Question for you moon:

 

If elite outfield defense isn't worth $10 million a year,

 

Why the heck do you think Mookie is worth $35 million a year?

 

Especially keeping in mind he has an .858 OPS away from Fenway, which is hardly elite.

 

The problem for JBJ is that his defense was barely average last year. If he was still a leader in runs saved and zone rating, he’d have been dealt. But he’s coming off a year with uncharacteristic errors and a concern that he’s lost a step

[Bellhorn04]

The problem for JBJ is that his defense was barely average last year. If he was still a leader in runs saved and zone rating, he’d have been dealt. But he’s coming off a year with uncharacteristic errors and a concern that he’s lost a step

 

That's not my point though. My point is that moon said JBJ's defense wasn't worth $10 million EVEN IN HIS PRIME.

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs value would like a word with you.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF#value

 

I see a 1.3 dWAR in 2019. I see a -1.2 UZR/150 and -1 DRS in 2019.

 

To be fair, I usually use a 3 year sample size on these numbers, but JBJ is getting older. I expect better than 2019, this year but not 2018 numbers.

 

Not $10M. (I'm thinking Bloom must think he's worth that, so who am I to say otherwise?)

[moonslav59]

That's not my point though. My point is that moon said JBJ's defense wasn't worth $10 million EVEN IN HIS PRIME.

 

Yes, I was wrong on that point.

[notin]

The problem for JBJ is that his defense was barely average last year. If he was still a leader in runs saved and zone rating, he’d have been dealt. But he’s coming off a year with uncharacteristic errors and a concern that he’s lost a step

 

I think a big reason for the decline is that his per inning chances are among the worst in MLB. UZR and DRS and, well, any defensive metric rely heavily on having plays to make. It is possible Betts, whose opportunities are noticeably higher, has been taking some opportunities away from Bradley.

 

I don’t think the skills are declining. Not that much. Put Myers in RF (hypothetically) and JBJ will have a “miraculous” return to defensive form...

[Bellhorn04]

I think a big reason for the decline is that his per inning chances are among the worst in MLB. UZR and DRS and, well, any defensive metric rely heavily on having plays to make. It is possible Betts, whose opportunities are noticeably higher, has been taking some opportunities away from Bradley.

 

I don’t think the skills are declining. Not that much. Put Myers in RF (hypothetically) and JBJ will have a “miraculous” return to defensive form...

 

And why would JBJ's skills noticeably decline at his age?

[mvp 78]

Fangraphs value would like a word with you.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jackie-bradley-jr/12984/stats?position=OF#value

 

Truthfully, aside from backing our own arguments, how much importance does that $ value really have? Was Mookie really worth $60M one year? Isn't he really just worth what someone is willing to pay?

[notin]

And why would JBJ's skills noticeably decline at his age?

 

Exactly my point. He was just less involved. Metrics don't catch that up front, but analysis of metrics does...

[mvp 78]

Exactly my point. He was just less involved. Metrics don't catch that up front, but analysis of metrics does...

 

I don't understand why he was less involved in 2019. How was it different than 2016-2018? Mookie was still playing next to him. Did Mookie get better?

[Bellhorn04]

Truthfully, aside from backing our own arguments, how much importance does that $ value really have? Was Mookie really worth $60M one year? Isn't he really just worth what someone is willing to pay?

 

Those $ values do have some meaning, because they're based on the real average cost of a win on the free agent market. They do get inflated by all the free agent busts, of course.

[mvp 78]

Those $ values do have some meaning, because they're based on the real average cost of a win on the free agent market. They do get inflated by all the free agent busts, of course.

 

But nobody is spending $60M AAV on a player. I think the theory behind it is faulty.

[Bellhorn04]

But nobody is spending $60M AAV on a player. I think the theory behind it is faulty.

 

I don't think that's the theory. I think it's just a calculation.

[Slasher9]

Truthfully, aside from backing our own arguments, how much importance does that $ value really have? Was Mookie really worth $60M one year? Isn't he really just worth what someone is willing to pay?

 

other then to support a point - not much.

I dont think anyone would pay a player $60MM for 1 season (yet).

correct.

[mvp 78]

I don't think that's the theory. I think it's just a calculation.

 

I don't like that equation then. I think that up to a point, it may make sense, but it should be represent actual market value. At some point, it's no longer $ for $, there are diminishing returns. If it had any basis in reality, Mike Trout would be paid 70M AAV.

[Hitch]

 

Move over a seat on the bandwagon, I'm jumping on. I love this possible deal.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't like that equation then. I think that up to a point, it may make sense, but it should be represent actual market value. At some point, it's no longer $ for $, there are diminishing returns. If it had any basis in reality, Mike Trout would be paid 70M AAV.

 

Then what you're looking for is something more like the Trade Simulator.

[mvp 78]

Then what you're looking for is something more like the Trade Simulator.

 

Maybe something like their Annual Field Value equated to what the actual market value should be. For example, Trout has an AFV of about 500 over the next 11 years. How does that equate to a salary on the open market. This would be a better way to determine if someone is overpaid, underpaid, etc. Rather than coming up with a metric that is "one win is worth x" because that's not really the case.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe something like their Annual Field Value equated to what the actual market value should be. For example, Trout has an AFV of about 500 over the next 11 years. How does that equate to a salary on the open market. This would be a better way to determine if someone is overpaid, underpaid, etc. Rather than coming up with a metric that is "one win is worth x" because that's not really the case.

 

Yeah, the FanGraphs value doesn't say "one win is worth x", it says "one win has cost x".

[Kimmi]

This is simply a salary dump for San Diego. Their return is Boston paying 1/2 of Myers actual salary.

 

Boston doesn't give a damn about Myers. His contract is back loaded so his competitive balance payroll is much less than actual payout. Thus Sox may only get hit for $4-5M for luxury tax purpose. Meanwhile Sox will get a pitcher and maybe two more prospects.

 

Bloom knows how to build the farm.

 

And this is why JBJ is untradeable. Think about it. Bloom ain't willing to do what San Diego is doing. He ain't giving up prospects just so other team picks half of JBJ's tab. We're already under the cap. Unless some jackass picks up half of JBJ salary and expects no prospects in return, JBJ is here to stay.

 

I pretty much agree with you Nick. The Sox are looking for ways to rebuild the farm and their young core.

 

I wouldn't trade JBJ as a salary dump anyway, especially with questions surrounding Verdugo's back.

[Kimmi]

Move over a seat on the bandwagon, I'm jumping on. I love this possible deal.

 

I will be very pleased if Bloom can pull something like this off.

[moonslav59]

It would be nice to have some more excitement this winter. Kind of a let down after all the Betts hoopla.

 

[Swiharts Ghost]

other then to support a point - not much.

I dont think anyone would pay a player $60MM for 1 season (yet).

correct.

 

Slasher that may be the hottest Redsox Avi everrrrrrr

[Swiharts Ghost]

It would be nice to have some more excitement this winter. Kind of a let down after all the Betts hoopla.

 

 

 

I agree with this .Pretty exciting really when he pulls this off .

[notin]

It would be nice to have some more excitement this winter. Kind of a let down after all the Betts hoopla.

 

 

The problem is, with Bloom’s methodical patience, this deal might not be finalized until July.

 

Of 2021...

[moonslav59]

The problem is, with Bloom’s methodical patience, this deal might not be finalized until July.

 

Of 2021...

 

Is he trying to squeeze one more prospect out of SD?

[Slasher9]

i like the patience. it's refreshing.

[Hitch]

i like the patience. it's refreshing.

 

^^^