Red Sox close to deal with Kevin Pillar

[moonslav59]

Most likely.

 

We were 19.6 under before Pillar.

 

We don't have great infield depth, but Down might be up in 1-2 years.

 

1B: Moreland, Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey (JD?)

2B: Peraza, Chavis, Lin, Arauz (Dalbec?) Marco (not on 40)

3B: Devers, Chavis, Dalbec (Marco not on 40)

SS: Bogey, Lin, Arauz, Chatham (Marco not on 40)

 

[Noles_1335]

For those who continue to say that Pillar is poor mans version of JBJ.... have you actually looked at their stats. With the exception of BB's and OBP.... Pillar is far and away a better statistical player. And I'm sure we are going to get the responses of how JBJ is a gold glove OF'er... he was a great OF'er, that has fallen off. I'll take KP in CF any day. He may not make the ESPN top 10 routinely but he is going to make the plays when needed and occasionally he's going to make you say... damn nice catch. Now let's send JBJ out to pasture and bring back an arm!

[Slasher9]

With the exception of BB's and OBP.... Pillar is far and away a better statistical player.

 

this statement is simply not true.

[Noles_1335]

JBJ- GP/147, AB/494, R/69, H/111, 2B's/28, 3B's/3, HR/21, RBI/62, BB/56, SO/155, SB/8

KP- GP/161, AB/611, R/83, H/158, 2B's/37, 3B's/3, HR/21, RBI/88, BB/18, SO/89, SB/14

 

2019 season

 

What am I missing here for my statement not being true?

[notin]

JBJ- GP/147, AB/494, R/69, H/111, 2B's/28, 3B's/3, HR/21, RBI/62, BB/56, SO/155, SB/8

KP- GP/161, AB/611, R/83, H/158, 2B's/37, 3B's/3, HR/21, RBI/88, BB/18, SO/89, SB/14

 

2019 season

 

What am I missing here for my statement not being true?

 

For one thing, 6 other seasons.

 

They are basically the same player.

 

In 7 seasons, Bradley has a 92 OPS+ and worth 15 bWAR / 13.5 fWAR

 

In 7 seasons, Pillar has a 87 OPS+ and been worth 15.2 bWAR / 11.5 fWAR.

 

It is worth noting that these stats measure accomplishments and not ability. The defensive portion of Bradley's WAR is compromised by playing next to a superior RF in Betts, who likely took some chances away from Bradley. A look at defensive totals vs innings played does confirm this. Given a lesser RF, it is possible Bradley really increases his numbers. Pillar has played next to a slew of different corner OF (and played some RF himself) and therefore has not had such a limitation. His numbers might actually be a bit more representative...

[oldtimer]

We don't have great infield depth, but Down might be up in 1-2 years.

 

1B: Moreland, Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey (JD?)

2B: Peraza, Chavis, Lin, Arauz (Dalbec?) Marco (not on 40)

3B: Devers, Chavis, Dalbec (Marco not on 40)

SS: Bogey, Lin, Arauz, Chatham (Marco not on 40)

 

 

Moreland is back as insurance at 1st and for DH on occasion. It will either be Dalbec or Chavis as the regular 1st baseman and will depend on how these guys progress.

 

I see Chatham as our do all utility player with possibilities at 2nd, SS and third

 

Not sure how 2nd will play out as we need to see the new players at Fenway. Chavis should get a shot. Lin may be odd man out here.

 

Marco is likely going to have to get some PT in AAA before being considered, but still has potential depending on how the alternatives are coming along.

 

The reality is the infield is in flux

 

I have tickets to a spring traing game against the braves in March. ($50 a seat) and will have a look then at some of our new players.

[Elktonnick]

For one thing, 6 other seasons.

 

They are basically the same player.

 

In 7 seasons, Bradley has a 92 OPS+ and worth 15 bWAR / 13.5 fWAR

 

In 7 seasons, Pillar has a 87 OPS+ and been worth 15.2 bWAR / 11.5 fWAR.

 

It is worth noting that these stats measure accomplishments and not ability. The defensive portion of Bradley's WAR is compromised by playing next to a superior RF in Betts, who likely took some chances away from Bradley. A look at defensive totals vs innings played does confirm this. Given a lesser RF, it is possible Bradley really increases his numbers. Pillar has played next to a slew of different corner OF (and played some RF himself) and therefore has not had such a limitation. His numbers might actually be a bit more representative...

 

Pilar is by far the more cost effective player.

[notin]

Pilar is by far the more cost effective player.

 

That is a very supportable argument...

[notin]

Moreland is back as insurance at 1st and for DH on occasion. It will either be Dalbec or Chavis as the regular 1st baseman and will depend on how these guys progress.

 

I see Chatham as our do all utility player with possibilities at 2nd, SS and third

 

Not sure how 2nd will play out as we need to see the new players at Fenway. Chavis should get a shot. Lin may be odd man out here.

 

Marco is likely going to have to get some PT in AAA before being considered, but still has potential depending on how the alternatives are coming along.

 

The reality is the infield is in flux

 

I have tickets to a spring traing game against the braves in March. ($50 a seat) and will have a look then at some of our new players.

 

I don't see the infield as being "in flux."

 

Bogaerts and Devers are locks long term. The Sox don't have any real dynmao at the SS position anywhere in the approximate pipeline (unless you are a CJ Chatham fan), but they do have a potentially serviceable 3B in Dalbec should anything go awry.

 

Moreland is a seasoned MLB veteran at 1B with a Gold Glove and a World Series ring to his credit. He's not the most exciting player and not a personal favorite, but he is not exactly a weakness either. And we are liekly to see Chavis and possibly Dalbec get reps at the position.

 

2B is in flux, which puts it kindly. While it is possible Chavis takes off and runs away with the role, that feels like borderline wishful thinking. The role could also easily fall into the hands of some combination of Pereza, Lin and Arauz. Chatham is going to require some injuries to even see Fenway this year, and hopefully no one to Bogaerts. Hernandez is not even on the 40 man roster and has a history that puts him more likely to see the 60 day IL. I'd like to see the Sox sign Brian Dozier here, but I think/hope pitching gets the higher priority. The Sox really also should (and hopefully will) make a deal with Houston to keep Arauz if they like him so he can play in Pawtucket (and if this happens, it is actually likely to be well into Spring Training after the Sox have made a decision on whether or not they are keeping Arauz). The whole idea of keeping Arauz on the bench and losing a year of development while gaining a year of service time is just a worst case scenario for a younger player and a team. And hey, maybe Arauz can be some sort of stud in ST and actually take over the 2B position as his own. (Warning: Do NOT hold your breath. Or anyone else's breath. No breath-holding period.)

 

but as much of a question mark as 2B is, the pitching staff - both rotation and bullpen - are really better places to try to improve. Even a marginal improvement would be welcome, despite also being potentially insignificant...

[Elktonnick]

That is a very supportable argument...

For this reason I think Bloom would love to trade JBJ. It is also the reason JBJ hasn't been traded, he is too expensive for his offensive output. His defensive contribution I think is hard to quantify in monetary terms. Hence he remains a Red Sox for the time being.

[notin]

For this reason I think Bloom would love to trade JBJ. It is also the reason JBJ hasn't been traded, he is too expensive for his offensive output. His defensive contribution I think is hard to quantify in monetary terms. Hence he remains a Red Sox for the time being.

 

His salary is comparable to Kevin Kiermaier, but he is also only signed for one year (unlike Kiermaier) and has a much less significant history of injury. Bradley is arguable paid acceptably in accordance with some of his peers, but his contract is not exactly movable in the wake of serviceable CF options who were available on the market this year and willing to settle for less.

 

The only way the sox move Bradley now is if they take back another contract some team wantsto dump. Someone positied a Bradley/Samardzija swap, which might work out. Except that the Sox should not touch this deal with a 20 foot ... err.. umm.. trading stick? I got nothing here. Samardzija is at the point in his career where his fastball velocity is dropping like a 90's dotcom stock.

 

Now if the Sox got creative, and moved Samardzija to the bullpen, where he does have a good track record and in the reduced role he very likely sees some velocity return, and then maybe bumped Barnes into an opener role, it might work out. But that seems a little too specific to hope for...

[Slasher9]

JBJ- GP/147, AB/494, R/69, H/111, 2B's/28, 3B's/3, HR/21, RBI/62, BB/56, SO/155, SB/8

KP- GP/161, AB/611, R/83, H/158, 2B's/37, 3B's/3, HR/21, RBI/88, BB/18, SO/89, SB/14

 

2019 season

 

What am I missing here for my statement not being true?

 

Fair. i was thinking career.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

JBJ- GP/147, AB/494, R/69, H/111, 2B's/28, 3B's/3, HR/21, RBI/62, BB/56, SO/155, SB/8

KP- GP/161, AB/611, R/83, H/158, 2B's/37, 3B's/3, HR/21, RBI/88, BB/18, SO/89, SB/14

 

2019 season

 

What am I missing here for my statement not being true?

 

Eeegad! Take a pitch, much? Ever? (not a guy you want leading off in front of you, if you want to see a pitcher's repertoire).

[OH FOY]

Wont shock me if Bloom tries to work on extension with JBJ. He's a proponent of Defense in CF.

[moonslav59]

Moreland is back as insurance at 1st and for DH on occasion. It will either be Dalbec or Chavis as the regular 1st baseman and will depend on how these guys progress.

 

I see Chatham as our do all utility player with possibilities at 2nd, SS and third

 

Not sure how 2nd will play out as we need to see the new players at Fenway. Chavis should get a shot. Lin may be odd man out here.

 

Marco is likely going to have to get some PT in AAA before being considered, but still has potential depending on how the alternatives are coming along.

 

The reality is the infield is in flux

 

I have tickets to a spring traing game against the braves in March. ($50 a seat) and will have a look then at some of our new players.

 

I should have put Chatham in the 2B depth chart, but I need to see more from him before I move him above Lin and Chavis.

 

Moreland will start every game vs RHPs, if healthy, so in a sense, he's the starter at 1B. Chavis or Dalbec (if he shows life) will play 1B vs LHPs. I doubt Chavis plays 2B vs RHPs, unless Peraza stinks up the place, so I see Peraza as the FT 2Bman, unless and until he loses the job.

[mvp 78]

Eeegad! Take a pitch, much? Ever? (not a guy you want leading off in front of you, if you want to see a pitcher's repertoire).

 

Pillar put the ball in play 79% of the time last year. JBJ put the ball in play 56% of the time.

 

Pillar also had a higher % of productive outs (due to JBJ k rate).

[mvp 78]

Surprisingly, Pillar's first pitch swinging % 39.5 isn't that much greater than JBJ's 36.

 

Pitches/AB

 

Pillar: 3.3

JBJ: 3.9

[moonslav59]

Now if the Sox got creative, and moved Samardzija to the bullpen, where he does have a good track record and in the reduced role he very likely sees some velocity return, and then maybe bumped Barnes into an opener role, it might work out. But that seems a little too specific to hope for...

 

I like the Ian Kennedy idea better. I'm still not sure $11M JBJ is worse than $16.5M Kennedy ($14M on lux line), but with Pillar on the team, I'd do it. I'm not sure KC would do it it just to save $5.5M. They could get a nice prospect for Kennedy and $5.5M cash towards his deal.

 

What are your thoughts on JBJ for Danny Duffy? He's owed $15.25M and $15.5M over the next 2 years and $13M x 2 on the lux tax line. He's declined recently and would add to the 2021 budget.

 

Chris Archer has $9M/1 left, but Pitt won't want JBJ, unless we paid down much of his deal.

 

Anyone else?

 

 

[mvp 78]

No to Danny Duffy. If you're going to spend 30M over the next 2 years, may have well just kept Price around.

[mvp 78]

Also, PILLAR IS INJURY INSURANCE IF VERDUGO ISN'T HEALTHY.

 

@alexspeier

New Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo (back) may be sideline at the start of the season. The possibility was known in the trade, and added to Red Sox interest in Kevin Pillar

[notin]

I like the Ian Kennedy idea better. I'm still not sure $11M JBJ is worse than $16.5M Kennedy ($14M on lux line), but with Pillar on the team, I'd do it. I'm not sure KC would do it it just to save $5.5M. They could get a nice prospect for Kennedy and $5.5M cash towards his deal.

 

What are your thoughts on JBJ for Danny Duffy? He's owed $15.25M and $15.5M over the next 2 years and $13M x 2 on the lux tax line. He's declined recently and would add to the 2021 budget.

 

Chris Archer has $9M/1 left, but Pitt won't want JBJ, unless we paid down much of his deal.

 

Anyone else?

 

 

 

I thoght Kennedy had another year, which would make it a big plus for KC to deal him, but he does not.

 

One guy worth targeting might be Jose Urena. He's actually not a bad pitcher, but the Marlins are flush with cheaper, talented SPs.

 

The BTV Simulator had a deal of Connor Wong for Urena as a modest overpay, but it doesn't look unrealistic to me...

[notin]

No to Danny Duffy. If you're going to spend 30M over the next 2 years, may have well just kept Price around.

 

EXcept that the Sox would not have reset.

 

Duffy's AAV of $13mill is close to Bradley's $11mill, so it's only a $2mill net gain for this year towards the penalty.

 

If the Sox could have dealt Bradley, maybe keeping Price was more realistic...

[a700hitter]

@alexspeier

New Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo (back) may be sideline at the start of the season. The possibility was known in the trade, and added to Red Sox interest in Kevin Pillar

So they got a damaged prospect foisted upon them.

[mvp 78]

EXcept that the Sox would not have reset.

 

Duffy's AAV of $13mill is close to Bradley's $11mill, so it's only a $2mill net gain for this year towards the penalty.

 

If the Sox could have dealt Bradley, maybe keeping Price was more realistic...

 

Or just non tendered him?

[mvp 78]

So they got a damaged prospect foisted upon them.

 

One that is basically Richard Ramirez according to SCM33.

[notin]

One that is basically Richard Ramirez according to SCM33.

 

And jad

[mvp 78]

And jad

 

People in the Fens better have their police radios on 24/7 the next few years.

[moonslav59]

No to Danny Duffy. If you're going to spend 30M over the next 2 years, may have well just kept Price around.

 

I don't know enough about Duffy's situation to take a side, but it's not $31M over 2 years. They'd be taking JBJ's $11M, so it would be $20M/2 and $13M on the lux tax next year and $2M this year (counting no JBJ). That makes it sound more reasonable, but only if Bloom believes he can do well.

 

Again, I'm not sure about this deal, but here are the 3 year numbers:

 

Duffy (Just turned 31)

432 IP

103 ERA+

1.356 WHIP

 

Price (Turns 35 in August)

358 IP

122 ERA+

1.204 WHIP

 

Porcello (Just turned 31)

569 IP

96 ERA+

1.322 WHIP

[a700hitter]

People in the Fens better have their police radios on 24/7 the next few years.

No need to worry. He'll be rehabbing in Fort Myers for most of the season.

[mvp 78]

If they are going to bring anyone in, it should still give enough wiggle room so that the Sox can try to do an extension with ERod and Devers.