Marco Hernandez non-tendered

[Bellhorn04]

Osich was re-signed too.

 

Speier: "The decision to non-tender allowed greater flexibility in contract structure (I.e., split major/minor league deals) for players expected to offer depth. Osich has a split contract, with the LHP set to make $850K on the major league component of the deal."

 

Bloom is rocking now!

[notin]

Bloom is rocking now!

 

So far he has made two acquisitions. And both of them have been Josh Osich...

[Tedballgame]

Former Rule 5 players: Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino, Dan Uggla, Darwin Gonzalez, Joakim Soria, George Bell, Odubel Herrera, Hector Rondon, Matt Mantei, Darren O'Day.

[notin]

And Marco is back, too.

 

That brief cheer you all heard was moonslav...

[notin]

Former Rule 5 players: Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino, Dan Uggla, Darwin Gonzalez, Joakim Soria, George Bell, Odubel Herrera, Hector Rondon, Matt Mantei, Darren O'Day.

 

If we count former all star Kelly Gruber, then your list has an even 12 success stories in the past 39 seasons. I'm sure there are others we both forgot, but the fact is success stories are just not all that common...

[mvp 78]

If Matt Mantei is one of the best success stories of the Rule 5 draft, it's probably not worth discussing.

[Jack Flap]

I'm sure the Red Sox always do their due diligence on the Rule 5 in case some guy they're really high on is somehow available, but in general, we usually don't have roster spots to spare for players who probably aren't major league caliber. (No Josh Smith jokes, please.) I wouldn't expect this year to be much different.

[Jack Flap]

Bloom is rocking now!

 

When the Yankees sign Cole, I will keep my spirits up by reminding myself that we potentially saved a few hundred thousand $ on Marco and Osich.

[mvp 78]

I'm sure the Red Sox always do their due diligence on the Rule 5 in case some guy they're really high on is somehow available, but in general, we usually don't have roster spots to spare for players who probably aren't major league caliber. (No Josh Smith jokes, please.) I wouldn't expect this year to be much different.

 

They have 4 open roster spots. They can at least take a flier on some guys and send them back in ST if they don't like what they see.

[notin]

They have 4 open roster spots. They can at least take a flier on some guys and send them back in ST if they don't like what they see.

 

Reserved for 1) CF 2) 2B 3) SP and 4) Brock Holt?

[moonslav59]

They have 6 roster slots on the 40 man, and depending on us trading JBJ (or other), we might have a couple more.

 

As for the 26 man roster, I see only 18 sure bets with one being Lin by default.

 

Sale, Price, ERod, Eovaldi, DHern

Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden

Vaz

Chavis

Lin

Bogey

Devers

Beni

JBJ

Betts

JD

 

That's basically 8 slots open, not counting a likely JBJ trade. Add Hembree, Velazquez & Brasier or some other in-system RP'er, and we still have 5 slots:

1B

2B

OF

SP

Rule 5 guy or another SP'er

[Tedballgame]

If Matt Mantei is one of the best success stories of the Rule 5 draft, it's probably not worth discussing.

He had 6 seasons with an E.R.A. below 3 and he saved 32 games one season, 29 another and 22 another. Not too bad for a Rule 5 guy. Most teams would want a guy like that. He threw hard in his prime.

[Tedballgame]

If we count former all star Kelly Gruber, then your list has an even 12 success stories in the past 39 seasons. I'm sure there are others we both forgot, but the fact is success stories are just not all that common...

Josh Fields had some success after Houston took him from the Sox in 2012 Rule 5 draft. 6 pretty good seasons as hard throwing reliever. Better than a lot of guys the Sox had in their pen over that time.

[Tedballgame]

If we count former all star Kelly Gruber, then your list has an even 12 success stories in the past 39 seasons. I'm sure there are others we both forgot, but the fact is success stories are just not all that common...

Jose Bautista, Bobby Bonilla, Paul Blair, Jody Davis, Darrell Evans, Willie Henandez, Dave Hollins, Mike Morgan, Ryan Pressly, Bip Roberts, Fernado Vina, Cecil Cooper, Scott Posednik, Jay Gibbons, Elrod Hendricks, Bobby Knoop, Shane Mack, John Wetteland, R.A. Dickey, Mitch Williams, Jeff Nelson, Manny Trillo.

[Tedballgame]

Lots of All-Stars in that list plus many other good players. Rule 5 draft is nothing to sneeze at.

[Bellhorn04]

Jose Bautista, Bobby Bonilla, Paul Blair, Jody Davis, Darrell Evans, Willie Henandez, Dave Hollins, Mike Morgan, Ryan Pressly, Bip Roberts, Fernado Vina, Cecil Cooper, Scott Posednik, Jay Gibbons, Elrod Hendricks, Bobby Knoop, Shane Mack, John Wetteland, R.A. Dickey, Mitch Williams, Jeff Nelson, Manny Trillo.

 

Well, you've got me convinced, FWIW

[notin]

Lots of All-Stars in that list plus many other good players. Rule 5 draft is nothing to sneeze at.

 

You’re still looking at over a half of a century of Rule 5 picks. Granted, that list does have multiple MVPs (Bell, Hernandez) and multiple Cy Young winners (Hernandez, Dickey). But for the most part, the success rate is pretty low ...

[OH FOY]

Rule 5 Draft is a tool, in MAYBE helping building a Team building Process. You use every tool you can that might work, to help the team.

Especially when you have tools already in your organization, that wont help this year.

Its not about Success or Failures, its about exploring anything that's available that might help. One Organizations Failure, might work in another. Depending on circumstances. That has to be studied, and Scouted.

I want my GM, and Head of Baseball operations doing this.

Its real easy to sign anybody to a huge deal. That's lazy GM work.

[notin]

Rule 5 Draft is a tool, in MAYBE helping building a Team building Process. You use every tool you can that might work, to help the team.

Especially when you have tools already in your organization, that wont help this year.

Its not about Success or Failures, its about exploring anything that's available that might help. One Organizations Failure, might work in another. Depending on circumstances. That has to be studied, and Scouted.

I want my GM, and Head of Baseball operations doing this.

Its real easy to sign anybody to a huge deal. That's lazy GM work.

 

That's Rule #1 in the Notin Guidebook for MLB GMs. However, no GMs read it, and for plenty of good reasons.

 

Free agency is really more about PR than about team building anyway. It's a way to tell your fanbase "we are willing to spend money to make this team better, so you should be willing to spend money to come and see it."

[Bellhorn04]

Rule 5 Draft is a tool, in MAYBE helping building a Team building Process. You use every tool you can that might work, to help the team.

Especially when you have tools already in your organization, that wont help this year.

Its not about Success or Failures, its about exploring anything that's available that might help. One Organizations Failure, might work in another. Depending on circumstances. That has to be studied, and Scouted.

I want my GM, and Head of Baseball operations doing this.

Its real easy to sign anybody to a huge deal. That's lazy GM work.

 

That's Rule #1 in the Notin Guidebook for MLB GMs. However, no GMs read it, and for plenty of good reasons.

 

Free agency is really more about PR than about team building anyway. It's a way to tell your fanbase "we are willing to spend money to make this team better, so you should be willing to spend money to come and see it."

 

I couldn't disagree more. You can call it lazy or PR oriented or whatever you want. But please don't try to tell me a free agent signing like J. D. Martinez doesn't help you achieve the ultimate goal of winning titles.

 

The trick, obviously, as with most things, is to use it judiciously.

[jacksonianmarch]

Teams that use FA to build their team frequently have short windows and limited success. Teams that use Fa for the final piece of the puzzle on a squad that was built via trade and development are usually the most successful

[notin]

I couldn't disagree more. You can call it lazy or PR oriented or whatever you want. But please don't try to tell me a free agent signing like J. D. Martinez doesn't help you achieve the ultimate goal of winning titles.

 

The trick, obviously, as with most things, is to use it judiciously.

 

Well, it does help. But the problem with free agency that every GM has known about forever is it involves making long term commitments for short term goals. How any free agents have signed big mega longterm six plus year deals and actually been god the entire time? It's pretty rare. I know this. You know this. Do we think GMs don't? Does anyone really think Matt Klentak just gave $118mill to Zack Wheeler expecting this oft-injured TJ-surgery repeat customer to actually pitch all 5 years like he has for the last two? Do we all think Klentak expects 12 good year from Bryce Harper?

 

Of course he doesn't. But when he goes out and spends on these players, while he hopes to improve his team's chances, he definitely tells his fanbase "money is not an object on our end."

 

Look at the Carl Crawford signing. Total bust. One of the worst ever. But were you or were you not excited the day the Sox signed him? Whether or not that excitement is ever justified doesn't change the fact that it did exist at one point...

[Bellhorn04]

Well, it does help. But the problem with free agency that every GM has known about forever is it involves making long term commitments for short term goals. How any free agents have signed big mega longterm six plus year deals and actually been god the entire time? It's pretty rare. I know this. You know this. Do we think GMs don't? Does anyone really think Matt Klentak just gave $118mill to Zack Wheeler expecting this oft-injured TJ-surgery repeat customer to actually pitch all 5 years like he has for the last two? Do we all think Klentak expects 12 good year from Bryce Harper?

 

Of course he doesn't. But when he goes out and spends on these players, while he hopes to improve his team's chances, he definitely tells his fanbase "money is not an object on our end."

 

Look at the Carl Crawford signing. Total bust. One of the worst ever. But were you or were you not excited the day the Sox signed him? Whether or not that excitement is ever justified doesn't change the fact that it did exist at one point...

 

It's hit or miss. So is the draft. What strategy isn't?

 

I keep coming back to the same thing: the Red Sox are, arguably, the most successful team since Henry bought the team, depending on how much weight you give to titles.

 

And they have used free agency basically to the limit.

 

And in spite of all the busts, many of those free agents have paid off hugely and can be linked directly to the titles.

[moonslav59]

Well, it does help. But the problem with free agency that every GM has known about forever is it involves making long term commitments for short term goals. How any free agents have signed big mega longterm six plus year deals and actually been god the entire time? It's pretty rare. I know this. You know this. Do we think GMs don't? Does anyone really think Matt Klentak just gave $118mill to Zack Wheeler expecting this oft-injured TJ-surgery repeat customer to actually pitch all 5 years like he has for the last two? Do we all think Klentak expects 12 good year from Bryce Harper?

 

Of course he doesn't. But when he goes out and spends on these players, while he hopes to improve his team's chances, he definitely tells his fanbase "money is not an object on our end."

 

Look at the Carl Crawford signing. Total bust. One of the worst ever. But were you or were you not excited the day the Sox signed him? Whether or not that excitement is ever justified doesn't change the fact that it did exist at one point...

 

The top 28 signings of all time- by total contract amount:

 

1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000 (2019-30)

2. Bryce Harper, $330,000,000 (2019-31)

3. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)

4. Manny Machado, $300,000,000 (2019-28)

5. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)

6. Nolan Arenado, $260,000,000 (2019-26)

7. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)

8. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)

9. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)

… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)

11. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)

12. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)

13. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)

14. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)

15. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)

16. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)

17. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)

18. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)

. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)

20. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)

. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)

22. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)

. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23)

24. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21)

25. Jose Altuve, $163,500,000 (2018-24)

26. CC Sabathia, $161,000,000 (2009-15)

. . . Chris Davis, $161,000,000 (2016-22)

28. Manny Ramirez, $160,000,000 (2001-08)

 

The top 28 look better than the next 28:

. . . Matt Kemp, $160,000,000 (2012-19)

30. Troy Tulowitzki, $157,750,000 (2011-20)

31. Masahiro Tanaka, $155,000,000 (2014-20)

. . . Jon Lester, $155,000,000 (2015-20)

33. Adrian Gonzalez, $154,000,000 (2012-18)

34. Jacoby Ellsbury, $153,000,000 (2014-20)

35. Miguel Cabrera, $152,300,000 (2008-15)

36. Zack Greinke, $147,000,000 (2013-18)

37. Chris Sale, $145,000,000 (2020-24)

38. Mike Trout, $144,500,000 (2015-20)

39. Cole Hamels, $144,000,000 (2013-18)

. . . Eric Hosmer, $144,000,000 (2018-25)

41. Carl Crawford, $142,000,000 (2011-17)

42. Todd Helton, $141,500,000 (2003-11)

43. Patrick Corbin, $140,000,000 (2019-24)

44. David Wright, $138,000,000 (2013-20)

45. Johan Santana, $137,500,000 (2008-13)

. . . Jacob deGrom, $137,500,000 (2019-23)

47. Alfonso Soriano, $136,000,000 (2007-14)

48. Freddie Freeman, $135,000,000 (2014-21)

49. Justin Upton, $132,750,000 (2016-21)

50. Shin-Soo Choo, $130,000,000 (2014-20)

. . . Johnny Cueto, $130,000,000 (2016-21)

. . . Paul Goldschmidt, $130,000,000 (2020-24)

53. Matt Cain, $127,500,000 (2012-17)

54. Barry Zito, $126,000,000 (2007-13)

. . . Vernon Wells, $126,000,000 (2008-14)

. . . Jayson Werth, $126,000,000 (2011-17)

. . . Yu Darvish, $126,000,000 (2018-23)

 

Here's the next 28:

58. Ryan Howard, $125,000,000 (2012-16)

. . . Josh Hamilton, $125,000,000 (2013-17)

60. CC Sabathia, $122,000,000 (2012-16)

61. Mike Hampton, $121,000,000 (2001-08)

62. Jason Giambi, $120,000,000 (2002-08)

. . . Matt Holliday, $120,000,000 (2010-16)

. . . Cliff Lee, $120,000,000 (2011-15)

. . . Elvis Andrus, $120,000,000 (2015-22)

. . . Xander Bogaerts, $120,000,000 (2020-25)

67. Carlos Beltran, $119,000,000 (2005-11)

68. Zack Wheeler, $118,000,000 (2020-24)

69. Ken Griffey Jr., $116,500,000 (2000-08)

70. Jordan Zimmermann, $110,000,000 (2016-20)

. . . Dustin Pedroia, $110,000,000 (2014-21)

. . . Yoenis Cespedes, $110,000,000 (2017-20)

. . . J.D. Martinez, $110,000,000 (2018-22)

74. Charlie Blackmon, $108,000,000 (2018-23)

75. Jose Reyes, $106,000,000 (2012-17)

. . . Justin Upton, $106,000,000 (2018-22)

77. Kevin Brown, $105,000,000 (1999-2005)

. . . Homer Bailey, $105,000,000 (2014-19)

. . . Ryan Braun, $105,000,000 (2016-20)

80. Albert Pujols, $100,000,000 (2004-10)

. . . Carlos Lee, $100,000,000 (2007-12)

. . . Ryan Zimmerman, $100,000,000 (2014-19)

. . . Evan Longoria, $100,000,000 (2017-22)

. . . Kyle Seager, $100,000,000 (2015-21)

. . . Alex Bregman, $100,000,000 (2020-24)

. . . Ronald Acuna, $100,000,000 (2019-26)

 

.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe Theo Epstein himself said way back when that if you have a success rate of 50% on your free agent picks, you're doing great - words to that effect anyway. Theo has always made use of free agency and always been realistic about it.

[moonslav59]

I believe Theo Epstein himself said way back when that if you have a success rate of 50% on your free agent picks, you're doing great - words to that effect anyway. Theo has always made use of free agency and always been realistic about it.

 

It's interesting that Theo spoke freely of the mistakes he made in his later years with the Sox, yet he seems to be making the same ones with the Cubs- granted they were on a serious win-now mission, but that has come and gone several years ago.

[Bellhorn04]

It's interesting that Theo spoke freely of the mistakes he made in his later years with the Sox, yet he seems to be making the same ones with the Cubs- granted they were on a serious win-now mission, but that has come and gone several years ago.

 

And he is arguably the best.

 

You could probably make a case for Friedman, but Theo has him on rings, 3 to zip.

[notin]

It's hit or miss. So is the draft. What strategy isn't?

 

I keep coming back to the same thing: the Red Sox are, arguably, the most successful team since Henry bought the team, depending on how much weight you give to titles.

 

And they have used free agency basically to the limit.

 

And in spite of all the busts, many of those free agents have paid off hugely and can be linked directly to the titles.

 

1) Not many draft picks tie up $200 million over 7 years.

 

2) Most of the free agents can be lined to titles? I guess that's true if you forget about all the free agents that didn't. The Sox have been employing this strategy for a few decades, and it's only recently worked. and plenty of other teams have employed it and failed...

[Bellhorn04]

2) Most of the free agents can be lined to titles? I guess that's true if you forget about all the free agents that didn't. The Sox have been employing this strategy for a few decades, and it's only recently worked. and plenty of other teams have employed it and failed...

 

I said many, not most.

 

The Sox have been employing this strategy in a big way since the day they signed Manny. So about 20 years. There were others before that, certainly, going back to Mike Torrez, but the sums of money were relatively small compared to the last 20 years.

 

And Torrez was actually pretty good, other than that one pitch...

[notin]

I said many, not most.

 

The Sox have been employing this strategy in a big way since the day they signed Manny. So about 20 years. There were others before that, certainly, going back to Mike Torrez, but the sums of money were relatively small compared to the last 20 years.

 

And Torrez was actually pretty good, other than that one pitch...

 

To be fair, those contracts were comparatively smaller, but so were payrolls. Jack Clark, for example, only made $5.8mill from the sox, but it was considered a big contract. And remember the financial albatross Dan Duquette acquired - Mike Lansing? Well, he only made $12.5mill for 2 years in Boston. Or roughly what the Sox paid Mitch Moreland...