Bloom move your asssssss

[Swiharts Ghost]

What about Casas and Thad Ward ? Both these players are going to be damn good .Maybe Ward gets a cup of Coffeee come September ? The cupboard is not bare Moon and no way in Hell do I Trade Chavis after the power he’s shown can’t give up on this kid when he could be just coming into his own now .Casas is likely a 21 starter same with Ward don’t get me wrong .Neither needs to be Rushed .I do think 21 could be our year . Edited January 12, 2020 by Swiharts Ghost

[mvp 78]

What about Casas and Thad Ward ? Both these players are going to be damn good .Maybe Ward gets a cup of Coffeee come September ? The cupboard is not bare Moon and no way in Hell do I Trade Chavis after the power he’s shown can’t give up on this kid when he could be just coming into his own now .Casas is likely a 21 starter same with Ward don’t get me wrong .Neither needs to be Rushed .I do think 21 could be our year .

 

You’re off by over a year. These guys won’t have a remote chance to be up until late 2021.

[mvp 78]

No likely to help in 2020. I didn't say beyond 2020.

 

I'd trade Chavis and start Dalbec at 1B, but that ain't happening.

 

Chatham is a long shot.

LOL. CJ has a legit chance to be the opening day 2b.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chatham ain’t much to write home about. He just turned 25, doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power. He also doesn’t steal a ton of bases. He’s a Ronald Torreyes when he was in NY. An empty BA guy. They can be useful if they can keep the BA up and if the D is solid to plus

[mvp 78]

Chatham ain’t much to write home about. He just turned 25, doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power. He also doesn’t steal a ton of bases. He’s a Ronald Torreyes when he was in NY. An empty BA guy. They can be useful if they can keep the BA up and if the D is solid to plus

 

I’m not saying he’d hit higher than 8th or 9th. Just stating he could be the best option at 2b considering his defense.

[oldtimer]

I’m not saying he’d hit higher than 8th or 9th. Just stating he could be the best option at 2b considering his defense.

 

Plus he could fill in at short if required, possibly third and the OF. He miht be a nice utility guy to have on the team. Not great, but versatile.

[notin]

I’m not saying he’d hit higher than 8th or 9th. Just stating he could be the best option at 2b considering his defense.

 

 

If the Sox want defense at 2b and the budget is as Shaughnessy tells us Henry says, then the Sox should just sign Yolmer Sanchez.

 

But otherwise, this doesn’t look like a position the Sox plan on spending money on. Tzu-Wei Lin and Jose Peraza might be a platoon here...

[moonslav59]

What about Casas and Thad Ward ? Both these players are going to be damn good .Maybe Ward gets a cup of Coffeee come September ? The cupboard is not bare Moon and no way in Hell do I Trade Chavis after the power he’s shown can’t give up on this kid when he could be just coming into his own now .Casas is likely a 21 starter same with Ward don’t get me wrong .Neither needs to be Rushed .I do think 21 could be our year .

 

My list was about 2020 only.

 

Chavis may improve, but he looks like Middlebrooks, to me.

 

I'm not just handing him away. I'm thinking that we could include him in a Price or Eovaldi trade to sweeten the return or lessen the amount of money needed to pay.

 

I like Dalbec better, but I know he may pull a Middy, too.

[moonslav59]

LOL. CJ has a legit chance to be the opening day 2b.

 

Not likely but he might help during the year.

 

Plus, winning the opening day 2B job does not mean he'll end up being "helpful." He's less than a 50% case, IMO-probably less than 33%.

[moonslav59]

Chatham ain’t much to write home about. He just turned 25, doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power. He also doesn’t steal a ton of bases. He’s a Ronald Torreyes when he was in NY. An empty BA guy. They can be useful if they can keep the BA up and if the D is solid to plus

 

I'm afraid some rosy glasses were received for Christmas by a few of us.

[Bellhorn04]

I like Dalbec better, but I know he may pull a Middy, too.

 

That's kind of a gloomy way to think.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Sox want defense at 2b and the budget is as Shaughnessy tells us Henry says, then the Sox should just sign Yolmer Sanchez.

 

But otherwise, this doesn’t look like a position the Sox plan on spending money on. Tzu-Wei Lin and Jose Peraza might be a platoon here...

 

I think how the Red Sox ultimately approach second base depends on the type of bullpen Bloom assembles. If he collects power arms, then it makes sense to go with a power hitter at second who doesn't get a lot of action. If relievers are more pitch-to-contact guys who induce a lot of grounders, then gloves up the middle are crucial.

 

A modern second baseman's value more than ever is the ability to turn two; other than that, any player can shift to shallow right field, grab one-hop liners on the grass and make the short throw to first -- even JD (look at some of the names that have become "second sackers" lately).

 

Sanchez was my son's favorite White Sox player because he wore cool goggles, but he's also fast -- leading the AL in triples in '18 -- and just won the Gold Glove for '19 (which means a majority of managers and coaches consider him the best defensive player at his position). But Peraza is already supposed to supply speed and leather... at half the cost.

 

Chatham was leading the Eastern League in batting last summer when he was promoted, and then hit .300 in a short stint in Triple A. He doesn't have elite speed or pop, but is still considered a solid professional infielder... worth a look as a backup at minimum salary.

[moonslav59]

That's kind of a gloomy way to think.

 

You don't think there's a chance Chavis and/or Dalbec might end up like Middy?

 

Middy:

.791 in AAA (62 HRs/286 K'sin 1238 PAs), but...

.865 in AA in 2011 (18HRs/95K's in 397 PAs)

1.057 in AAA in 2012 (9 HRs/18 K's in 100 PAs)

.835 first half season in MLB (15 HRs/70 K's in 286 PAs)

.611 afterwards (28 HRs/255 K's in 948 PAs after 2012)

 

Chavis:

.834 in AA (20 HRs/91K's in 413 PAs)

.911 in AAA (9HRs/33Ks in 113 PAs)

.766 in first half season in MLB (18 HRs/127 K's in 382 PAs), but...

1.186 first 15 games (6 HRs/16 K'sin 63 PAs)

.690 next 80 games (12 HRs/111K'sin 319 PAs)

 

Dalbec (Better defender than Middy & Chavis in the minors)

.945 A+ (26 HRs/130 K's in 419 PAs)

.829 AA (26 HRs/156 K's in 563 PAs)

.779 AAA (7 HRs/29 K's in 123 PAs)

 

All 3 had 25-30 HR power over 650 PAs and very high K rates. That doesn't mean they willall end up with same fates, but certainly there's a significant chance Chavis and/or Dalbec may end up being no better than Middy.

 

I'm not sure why, buy I like Dalbec more than the other two. His defense is better, and his K rate looks a little better.

[Bellhorn04]

Chavis does look ominously like Middlebrooks.

 

Dalbec looks more hopeful.

[moonslav59]

Chavis does look ominously like Middlebrooks.

 

Dalbec looks more hopeful.

 

Chavis had better OPS and HR/PAs numbers at AA and AAA than Dalbec, but the sample sizes are small for one or both.

 

Chavis's K rate is closer to Middy's than Dalbecs, but all are/were high.

 

Chavis's last 80 games in the bigs, last year look a lot like Middy's second season with the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Chavis had better OPS and HR/PAs numbers at AA and AAA than Dalbec, but the sample sizes are small for one or both.

 

Chavis's K rate is closer to Middy's than Dalbecs, but all are/were high.

 

Chavis's last 80 games in the bigs, last year look a lot like Middy's second season with the Sox.

 

K/BB rate seems to be the critical number. Middy's was 5/1. He proved that 5/1 is death.

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec had 139 K's last year, but 73 BB's. That's a good ratio.

 

Hitters in general are striking out a lot more now.

[moonslav59]

Chavis does look ominously like Middlebrooks.

 

Dalbec looks more hopeful.

 

For argument's sake, let's assume these trade values are correct (baseballtradevalues.com)

 

127 Devers

91 Bogey

51 Betts

36 Beni

28 ERod

25 Barnes

25 Casas

23 Vaz

19 Dalbec

18 Chavis

16 Mata

12 Duran

11 D Hern

9 Jiminez

6 JD

6 Taylor

6 Walden

5 Workman

5 Ward

 

Who do I think is comparatively over valued (sell high) players?

 

1. Chavis

2. Walden

3. Duran

4. Barnes

5. Beni (tough call)

 

Highest Negative Value:

-55 Price

-30 Eovaldi

-25 Pedey (untradeable)

-11 Sale

0 Brasier, Hembree and others

 

Who has the best chance at turning positive?

1. Sale

 

Based on my beliefs, I suggested this trade on that site and it was accepted:

 

Price, JBJ, Chavis, Walden & Duran +$6M ($2M x 3 yrs towards Price)

 

to SD for

 

Myers, Margot, Campusano & Quantrill

 

(It shows we overpaid by 5, but I think this could work for us. It gets us under the luxury tax and fills our CF position, nicely and gives us minor league depth.)

 

The site also accepted this much more simpler trade:

 

Price (+$4M) & JBJ

 

for

 

Myers & Margot

Edited January 12, 2020 by moonslav59

[Elktonnick]

For argument's sake, let's assume these trade values are correct (baseballtradevalues.com)

 

127 Devers

91 Bogey

51 Betts

36 Beni

28 ERod

25 Barnes

25 Casas

23 Vaz

19 Dalbec

18 Chavis

16 Mata

12 Duran

11 D Hern

9 Jiminez

6 JD

6 Taylor

6 Walden

5 Workman

5 Ward

 

Who do I think is comparatively over valued (sell high) players?

 

1. Chavis

2. Walden

3. Duran

4. Barnes

5. Beni (tough call)

 

Highest Negative Value:

-55 Price

-30 Eovaldi

-25 Pedey (untradeable)

-11 Sale

0 Brasier, Hembree and others

 

Who has the best chance at turning positive?

1. Sale

 

Based on my beliefs, I suggested this trade on that site and it was accepted:

 

Price, JBJ, Chavis, Walden & Duran +$6M ($2M x 3 yrs towards Price)

 

to SD for

 

Myers, Margot, Campusano & Quantrill

 

(It shows we overpaid by 5, but I think this could work for us. It gets us under the luxury tax and fills our CF position, nicely and gives us minor league depth.)

 

The site also accepted this much more simpler trade:

 

Price (+$4M) & JBJ

 

for

 

Myers & Margot

 

Unfortunately major league teams do not make trades with a web site but rather each other.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec had 139 K's last year, but 73 BB's. That's a good ratio.

 

Hitters in general are striking out a lot more now.

 

I agree, and that's why I like Dalbec more than Chavis, but I've found OBP in the minors does not always translate to MLB. Add to this the belief that Dalbec is the better defender of the 2 or 3, and one can see why Dalbec is valued higher than Chavis.

 

I worry about both.

 

Minors

 

K%

25.1% Middy (702 in 2795 PAs)

25.5% Chavis (449 in 1757)

29.8% Dalbec (480 in 1609)

 

 

BB%

11.7% Dalbec (189 in 1609)

7.6% Chavis (134 in 1757)

7.1 % Middy (198 in 2795)

 

OBP

.362 Dalbec

.325 Chavis

.325 Middy

 

K:BB

2.5:1 Dalbec

3.4:1 Chavis

3.6:1 Middy

 

MLB K:B:

3.8 : 1 Chavis (127 to 33)

5.1 : 1 Middy (325 to 64)

n/a Dalbec

 

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Dalbec's K/BB in 2019 was less than 2/1.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately major league teams do not make trades with a web site but rather each other.

 

True, but I think Price for Myers makes sense to both sides.

 

Price is owed $96M/3 and counts as $31M x 3 on Lux Tax (SD does not pay Lux tax)

 

Myers is owed $68.5M/3 BUT counts just $13.8M x 3 on Lux tax- a $17.2M per year benefit to the Sox on the Lux tax- about what we are over, now.

 

The Padres basically pay Price about $9M more than they were going to pay Myers. We could even chip in a little money or add a player.

 

Asking them to take on JBJ might be too much, so maybe trading him elsewhere makes more sense, but I'd love to get Margot back. His stock fell a little last year, but he's a plus defender and cheaper than JBJ. He also has 3 years of team control.

 

I'd give Price, JBJ and Chavis for Myers and Margot despite the site saying it's not accepted as a major overpay by the Sox. It does accpet the trade, if SD adds Quantrill.

[OH FOY]

Dalbec did improve last year cutting down his K's.

Year before he had 176 K's in 455 At bats.

This year 139 in 472 at bats.

I go by At Bats.

[moonslav59]

Dalbec's K/BB in 2019 was less than 2/1.

 

Good to see improvement as he rises up levels in the minors, but his K rate is was still very high: 24.7%.

 

That's actually a bit lower than Middy & Chavis in the minors, overall, but...

 

Chavis AAA in 2019: 26.6% (26.8 in 2018) So, he was getting worse as he moved up and continued getting worse in MLB.

 

Middy in AAA before 20212 call up was at 18% (18 in 100 PAs) and was at just 24.1 in 2011, so he was improving like Dalbec is.

[notin]

Unfortunately major league teams do not make trades with a web site but rather each other.

 

But they do factor in salary and future performance experience projections, which is all that site really does.

 

The biggest flaw in that site is that’s all it does. But there is no programming logic in existence to account for a GMs desire to acquire or deal a certain player...

[notin]

For argument's sake, let's assume these trade values are correct (baseballtradevalues.com)

 

127 Devers

91 Bogey

51 Betts

36 Beni

28 ERod

25 Barnes

25 Casas

23 Vaz

19 Dalbec

18 Chavis

16 Mata

12 Duran

11 D Hern

9 Jiminez

6 JD

6 Taylor

6 Walden

5 Workman

5 Ward

 

Who do I think is comparatively over valued (sell high) players?

 

1. Chavis

2. Walden

3. Duran

4. Barnes

5. Beni (tough call)

 

Highest Negative Value:

-55 Price

-30 Eovaldi

-25 Pedey (untradeable)

-11 Sale

0 Brasier, Hembree and others

 

Who has the best chance at turning positive?

1. Sale

 

Based on my beliefs, I suggested this trade on that site and it was accepted:

 

Price, JBJ, Chavis, Walden & Duran +$6M ($2M x 3 yrs towards Price)

 

to SD for

 

Myers, Margot, Campusano & Quantrill

 

(It shows we overpaid by 5, but I think this could work for us. It gets us under the luxury tax and fills our CF position, nicely and gives us minor league depth.)

 

The site also accepted this much more simpler trade:

 

Price (+$4M) & JBJ

 

for

 

Myers & Margot

 

 

To me the most overvalued player on that site is Barnes. That’s a lot of surplus value for a relief pitcher who cannot pitch on back-to-back days...

[Bellhorn04]

Middy in AAA before 20212 call up was at 18% (18 in 100 PAs) and was at just 24.1 in 2011, so he was improving like Dalbec is.

 

But Middlebrooks was walking less and less too. Absolutely no patience.

[Bellhorn04]

But they do factor in salary and future performance experience projections, which is all that site really does.

 

The biggest flaw in that site is that’s all it does. But there is no programming logic in existence to account for a GMs desire to acquire or deal a certain player...

 

Some after the fact analysis of trades using the simulator would be of interest.

[notin]

Some after the fact analysis of trades using the simulator would be of interest.

 

That happens all the time there.

 

Any real life trade gets posted. Many don’t work out with their numbers and requiring “fudging” by adding money. A lot of them that don’t work out are actually pretty close.

 

Sometimes the values they use just are not realistic. But sometimes GMs make stupid deals, which isn’t really their fault. If the website existed at the time, I’m 100000% positive it would have never accepted that Shelby Miller-Dansby Swanson trade. But that wouldn’t be a flaw. The whole world knew that was a bad trade except one guy. Unfortunately for Diamondback fans, that one guy was their GM at the time (Dave Stewart, I believe.)

[moonslav59]

To me the most overvalued player on that site is Barnes. That’s a lot of surplus value for a relief pitcher who cannot pitch on back-to-back days...

 

I don't disagree, but Barnes was improving every year until 2019. If a manager uses him right, he can still get 65+ IP without going back-to-back days.