Jackie Bradley

[Bellhorn04]

My eye-tests weren't looking at WAR totals when deciding that Bogaerts and Devers were more valuable than Betts in 2019. I watched all the games, and Betts seldom sparked the offense as a leadoff or came through in the clutch when the Sox were still in it. He struck out a lot to lead off games, and popped up to right a lot with runners on base. I also read game threads on this site and another, and most posters agreed with this assessment. He also wasn't quite as sharp in the field during the first half, with some uncharacteristic miscommunications that were maybe endemic of a lack of hunger and focus that the whole club seemed to display. Mookie seemed to be better the last two months, when the Sox faded and the pressure was off.

 

Mookie Betts is my favorite player, I want him to be a Red Sox for his entire Hall of Fame career, and I think if he's allowed to go elsewhere it will turn out to be Boston's biggest regret since Bagwell. But Bogie and Rafie were the most consistent players all season, hitting and making plays more when it mattered.

 

One thing I did not realize until recently is that Bill James is not a proponent of using WAR to determine the MVP award. He came up with his own stat called Win Shares which is based on contributions to actual wins by the team.

[notin]

My eye-tests weren't looking at WAR totals when deciding that Bogaerts and Devers were more valuable than Betts in 2019. I watched all the games, and Betts seldom sparked the offense as a leadoff or came through in the clutch when the Sox were still in it. He struck out a lot to lead off games, and popped up to right a lot with runners on base. I also read game threads on this site and another, and most posters agreed with this assessment. He also wasn't quite as sharp in the field during the first half, with some uncharacteristic miscommunications that were maybe endemic of a lack of hunger and focus that the whole club seemed to display. Mookie seemed to be better the last two months, when the Sox faded and the pressure was off.

 

Mookie Betts is my favorite player, I want him to be a Red Sox for his entire Hall of Fame career, and I think if he's allowed to go elsewhere it will turn out to be Boston's biggest regret since Bagwell. But Bogie and Rafie were the most consistent players all season, hitting and making plays more when it mattered.

 

Like that horrific episode in April where he and Bradley both just stopped and let Steve Piscotty's routine flyball land for a double.

 

My only argument with this assessment is that the Sox were never really "in it" this year. They started out horribly, and peaked on May 12 when they were only 3 games out. One could argue that Devers' defense was even more horrible prior to that date, as he started the season as an error machine...

[notin]

One thing I did not realize until recently is that Bill James is not a proponent of using WAR to determine the MVP award. He came up with his own stat called Win Shares which is based on contributions to actual wins by the team.

 

 

Win Shares goes back before WAR, although there were some earlier total contribution stats like VORP and WARP...

[Bellhorn04]

Win Shares goes back before WAR, although there were some earlier total contribution stats like VORP and WARP...

 

Nothing as good as WAFL though...

[kenmeister]

My eye-tests weren't looking at WAR totals when deciding that Bogaerts and Devers were more valuable than Betts in 2019. I watched all the games, and Betts seldom sparked the offense as a leadoff or came through in the clutch when the Sox were still in it. He struck out a lot to lead off games, and popped up to right a lot with runners on base. I also read game threads on this site and another, and most posters agreed with this assessment. He also wasn't quite as sharp in the field during the first half, with some uncharacteristic miscommunications that were maybe endemic of a lack of hunger and focus that the whole club seemed to display. Mookie seemed to be better the last two months, when the Sox faded and the pressure was off.

 

Mookie Betts is my favorite player, I want him to be a Red Sox for his entire Hall of Fame career, and I think if he's allowed to go elsewhere it will turn out to be Boston's biggest regret since Bagwell. But Bogie and Rafie were the most consistent players all season, hitting and making plays more when it mattered.

 

I could have written this post myself. My thoughts exactly! Except Mookie isn't my favorite player; right now that's Rafael Devers or Eduardo Rodriguez.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I know, poor choice of words on my part, but to revise: we wanted to think they still had a chance when they almost swept the Yanks... then Sale lost on a Sunday, the trade deadline came without reinforcements -- with DD admitting it wasn't worth it -- and Merloni told us all, "It's over. They're done." On freaking July 31st.

[moonslav59]

My eye-tests weren't looking at WAR totals when deciding that Bogaerts and Devers were more valuable than Betts in 2019. I watched all the games, and Betts seldom sparked the offense as a leadoff or came through in the clutch when the Sox were still in it. He struck out a lot to lead off games, and popped up to right a lot with runners on base. I also read game threads on this site and another, and most posters agreed with this assessment. He also wasn't quite as sharp in the field during the first half, with some uncharacteristic miscommunications that were maybe endemic of a lack of hunger and focus that the whole club seemed to display. Mookie seemed to be better the last two months, when the Sox faded and the pressure was off.

 

Mookie Betts is my favorite player, I want him to be a Red Sox for his entire Hall of Fame career, and I think if he's allowed to go elsewhere it will turn out to be Boston's biggest regret since Bagwell. But Bogie and Rafie were the most consistent players all season, hitting and making plays more when it mattered.

 

These stats don't tell the whole story, but here they are...

 

2019:

Late & Close OPS (all players with 50+ PAs are listed)

1.132 Bogey (He was the most clutch player this year)

.982 Betts

.920 Vaz

.892 Chavis

.858 Holt

.752 Devers

.680 JD

.633 JBJ

.540 Beni

 

High Leverage

1.090 Bogey

1.012 Betts

.983 JD

.958 Vaz

.953 Moreland

.894 Devers

.891 Holt

.867 Chavis

.611 JBJ

.569 Beni

(Looking at these numbers, one can wonder why we didn't win 95+ games.)

[moonslav59]

I know, poor choice of words on my part, but to revise: we wanted to think they still had a chance when they almost swept the Yanks... then Sale lost on a Sunday, the trade deadline came without reinforcements -- with DD admitting it wasn't worth it -- and Merloni told us all, "It's over. They're done." On freaking July 31st.

 

It was over when we got double swept.

 

I said it then, and some got mad at me, but the writing was on the wall.

[notin]

Nothing as good as WAFL though...

 

Wins Above Felipe Lopez was the pinnacle of total contribution stats...

[harmony]

Keon Broxton, a very good defensive/no hit CF, has elected free agency after being DFA'd, despite harmony's insistence he was a necessary bridge during the rebuild for Seattle and Boston would have to acquire him via trade...

Absent the hyperbole:

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19484-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-I?p=1280481&highlight=keon#post1280481

 

[moonslav59]

If Sox fans loved JBJ, they would adore Broxton's sub .600 OPS all year long- not just in month-long slumps.

[notin]

If Sox fans loved JBJ, they would adore Broxton's sub .600 OPS all year long- not just in month-long slumps.

 

 

In 3 years in Milwaukee (796 PA's), Broxton posted a .736 OPS (91 OPS+). Those are almost identical to JBJ's numbers or last year, and Broxton is not likely to cost $10-12mill. He has struggled since, but his playing time was also sporadic.

 

He's not such a horrible hitter when he gets semi-regular playing time. He also had a 20 HR/ 21 SB season for the Brew Crew...

[OH FOY]

Keon Broxton, a very good defensive/no hit CF, has elected free agency after being DFA'd, despite harmony's insistence he was a necessary bridge during the rebuild for Seattle and Boston would have to acquire him via trade...

 

Anything like this is on the table.

[moonslav59]

In 3 years in Milwaukee (796 PA's), Broxton posted a .736 OPS (91 OPS+). Those are almost identical to JBJ's numbers or last year, and Broxton is not likely to cost $10-12mill. He has struggled since, but his playing time was also sporadic.

 

He's not such a horrible hitter when he gets semi-regular playing time. He also had a 20 HR/ 21 SB season for the Brew Crew...

 

I'd be fine with Broxton on our team as a starting CF'er. He may be better than JBJ on defense. If he can hit near .700, then I'd be very happy.

 

Go with defense up the middle and use the money saved to fill bigger need areas.

[Kimmi]

this right here shows how flawed war is. not even debatable.

 

No, it really doesn't.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Lol yup no thanks

[mvp 78]

this right here shows how flawed war is. not even debatable.

 

bWAR is bunk. Viva fWAR!

[bosoxmal]

Has got to go.

[moonslav59]

Has got to go.

 

Unless, unless, unless...

 

he agrees to come back for way less than the arb projection.

[Kimmi]

Long live JBJ!

 

Unfortunately, I do believe he will be non-tendered or traded due to his expected salary.

[S5Dewey]

Unless, unless, unless...

 

he agrees to come back for way less than the arb projection.

 

And why should he do that? If I'm in his shoes I say, "Why should I take less than I can get someplace else when the Red Sox don't think enough of me to even give me what an arbitrator says is fair?"

 

When I was a boy my 'old man' and I would get into squabbles about rules that I thought at the time were unfair and he'd give me a wry smile and say, "You'll miss me when I'm gone." It's the same with JBJ. We'll miss his 140 games/year, his highlight reel catches and his OPS>.725 combined with his overall GG defense.

 

But, as Tony Soprano said before he would shoot someone in the head, "Nothing personal. It's all about the business".

[jad]

And why should he do that? If I'm in his shoes I say, "Why should I take less than I can get someplace else when the Red Sox don't think enough of me to even give me what an arbitrator says is fair?"

 

When I was a boy my 'old man' and I would get into squabbles about rules that I thought at the time were unfair and he'd give me a wry smile and say, "You'll miss me when I'm gone." It's the same with JBJ. We'll miss his 140 games/year, his highlight reel catches and his OPS>.725 combined with his overall GG defense.

 

But, as Tony Soprano said before he would shoot someone in the head, "Nothing personal. It's all about the business".

 

Once the two sides agree to go to arbitration, aren't they bound to accept the decision? (I.e., neither side can refuse to accept the decision).

[moonslav59]

Once the two sides agree to go to arbitration, aren't they bound to accept the decision? (I.e., neither side can refuse to accept the decision).

 

Yes, and if the do not offer arbitration, they could still out bid anyone else for JBJ and get him for less than the arb might have given him.

 

That was my point.

 

(BTW, I doubt this happens. I think we either non tender and get outbid or we trade him.)

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm starting to think that Bradley will be non-tendered. This is a great way to save 10 m. As for his replacement, the Red Sox should be able to sign J.Largas to a one year deal, paying him league minimum or close to it. Largas could hold down the spot for a few months of the season while Duran and Wilson get a little more minor league experience. Who knows, maybe Largas will finally stay healthy and put together a decent year. But if he doesn't the Red Sox have the youngsters waiting in the wings.

[Larry Cook]

His defense will he missed, but clearly arbitration is broken if they think he be worth 10 million a year.

[notin]

And why should he do that? If I'm in his shoes I say, "Why should I take less than I can get someplace else when the Red Sox don't think enough of me to even give me what an arbitrator says is fair?"

 

When I was a boy my 'old man' and I would get into squabbles about rules that I thought at the time were unfair and he'd give me a wry smile and say, "You'll miss me when I'm gone." It's the same with JBJ. We'll miss his 140 games/year, his highlight reel catches and his OPS>.725 combined with his overall GG defense.

 

But, as Tony Soprano said before he would shoot someone in the head, "Nothing personal. It's all about the business".

 

It is certainly possible for the Red Sox to sign Bradley for less. But they still have to make the best offer of any team...

[Behindenemylines]

If JD opt out that will open the door for keeping Mookie, but JBJ’s salary will be needed to do so. They try to get what ever they can for him. If the long term plan is not keeping Betts then maybe JBJ will remain in center for 2020. The Sox seem to be high on Duran and Wilson, and Benny is always an option in center. You need to look at the Sox payroll like a puzzle that needs to hit the 208 soft mandate.

[S5Dewey]

If JD opt out that will open the door for keeping Mookie, but JBJ’s salary will be needed to do so. They try to get what ever they can for him. If the long term plan is not keeping Betts then maybe JBJ will remain in center for 2020. The Sox seem to be high on Duran and Wilson, and Benny is always an option in center. You need to look at the Sox payroll like a puzzle that needs to hit the 208 soft mandate.

I don't know where people get the idea that Benintendi is an option for CF. He's not. He can run around out there and catch a few balls but that doesn't make him a ML CF'er. The world is full of people who can run around out there and catch a few balls. What we need in center in Fenway is someone who can cover a lot of ground and catch a lot of fly balls - the same thing we need in Right Field. And Beni can't play either well.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't know where people get the idea that Benintendi is an option for CF. He's not. He can run around out there and catch a few balls but that doesn't make him a ML CF'er. The world is full of people who can run around out there and catch a few balls. What we need in center in Fenway is someone who can cover a lot of ground and catch a lot of fly balls - the same thing we need in Right Field. And Beni can't play either well.

 

I guarantee Beni is not looked at as an option for CF or RF by the Sox FO.

[S5Dewey]

I guarantee Beni is not looked at as an option for CF or RF by the Sox FO.

 

Total agreement. I just wanted to nip a bad idea in the bud.