Jackie Bradley

[notin]

I'm just sitting back quietly listening to the chatter about all the reasons they're going to either non-tender JBJ or trade him so I can smile happily when April comes and he's still on the roster.

 

Sure, they may have to pay him $10M to keep him next year and they can likely sign someone who's cheaper but at the same time you often get what you pay for and the FO knows it. Logic says he stays unless, of course, you think that those GG Cf'ers with an OPS of >.700 grow on trees and they're everywhere.

 

If they tender him a contract, I do think you will be very pleased. I don't see him getting traded for one year at his estimated salary...

[notin]

i pray you are right. but i believe if JDM does not opt-out this will directly lead to JBj being non-tendered. although kennedy tried to walk it back...JH is 100% resetting the LT this coming season.

 

I doubt JD opts out, but even if he does, I still think the Sox bring him back at a lower AAV but for more years...

[Slasher9]

I doubt JD opts out, but even if he does, I still think the Sox bring him back at a lower AAV but for more years...

 

i agree with this. but that lower AAV may allow JBj and his ~ 10MM to stay and keep us under the LT...

[notin]

i agree with this. but that lower AAV may allow JBj and his ~ 10MM to stay and keep us under the LT...

 

... which is in complete agreement with your previous statement...

[moonslav59]

If JD opt out or is traded after opting in, I think we should give up on 2020 and trade others, including JBJ & Betts. Edited October 22, 2019 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

... which is in complete agreement with your previous statement...

 

how?

[notin]

If JD opt out or is traded after opting in, I think we should give up on 2020 and trade others, including JBJ & Betts.

 

FTFY

 

I don't thnk the Sox can afford to "give up" on seasons with the money they have tied up in Price, Sale, and Eovaldi.

 

Price's days are numbered and he is rapidly approaching the declining years in his deal. I think that alone means that if they want to win again, they need to strike before he becomes a huge contractual deadweight...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He has to go, first order of business...

 

Sonny (John Henry): "Price sold out Eck, that stronz. I don't want to see him no more. I want you to make that first thing on your list, understand?"

Clemenza (new GM): "Understood."

[notin]

He has to go, first order of business...

 

Sonny (John Henry): "Price sold out Eck, that stronz. I don't want to see him no more. I want you to make that first thing on your list, understand?"

Clemenza (new GM): "Understood."

 

Unless you think Henry should put out a hit on Price, I don't think it's going to matter. Price isn't getting traded. Unless the Sox give up something else with him that we prefer to keep, like Devers...

[jacksonianmarch]

The way the CBA is designed, third time offenders face a 50% overage for crossing the final LT threshold. I’m wondering if the Sox are preparing for a big Mookie deal and don’t want to spend 1.5X what he is gonna get. If they reset the LT, I’d be pretty sure Mookie is gonna be suiting up in 2021 for you. Not sure about 2020, though

[notin]

The way the CBA is designed, third time offenders face a 50% overage for crossing the final LT threshold. I’m wondering if the Sox are preparing for a big Mookie deal and don’t want to spend 1.5X what he is gonna get. If they reset the LT, I’d be pretty sure Mookie is gonna be suiting up in 2021 for you. Not sure about 2020, though

 

That's the exact scenario the Sox should be aiming for. If they're the biggest spender whose reset the luxury taxes, they are in a great position to sign Mookie after 2020. The only thing that might work against them is if Mookie just wants to play in another city for some reason. Maybe he likes change. But even if that happens, you should at least get more for him by trading him one year early than you are likely to get from a single compensatory draft pick...

[kenmeister]

If JD opt out or is traded after opting in, I think we should give up on 2012 and trade others, including JBJ & Betts.

 

I think you mean 2020

 

If JD leaving means the Sox get Cole or a similar stud pitcher then it's a different story...

[moonslav59]

The way the CBA is designed, third time offenders face a 50% overage for crossing the final LT threshold. I’m wondering if the Sox are preparing for a big Mookie deal and don’t want to spend 1.5X what he is gonna get. If they reset the LT, I’d be pretty sure Mookie is gonna be suiting up in 2021 for you. Not sure about 2020, though

 

That's how I see it, although it's no sure thing we bring Betts back after a reset.

 

IMO, we should trade JD, Betts and JBJ plus maybe some players that will be FAs after 2021, reset the tax and go for Betts and others after 2020.

 

By trimming the budget by a lot, we could also look to sign a free agent or two this winter, keeping us under the tax line, but with an eye on rebuilding for 2021 and beyond. (Nothing mega, but a few helpful moves to fill anticipated holes in 2021- 1B, 2B, Pen, SP...)

[moonslav59]

I think you mean 2020

 

If JD leaving means the Sox get Cole or a similar stud pitcher then it's a different story...

 

Yes, 2020. I went back and changed it.

 

We aren't getting Cole.

 

I doubt we trade JD to make room for another big signing, unless we stay under the tax line, too.

[notin]

... which is in complete agreement with your previous statement...

 

You said "but i believe if JDM does not opt-out this will directly lead to JBj being non-tendered. "

 

Basically, JBJ's fate might hang in the balance of JDM's decision to opt out or not.

 

Probably true...

[moonslav59]

You said "but i believe if JDM does not opt-out this will directly lead to JBj being non-tendered. "

 

Basically, JBJ's fate might hang in the balance of JDM's decision to opt out or not.

 

Probably true...

 

1) We could trade JD, if he opts in, so it's not all about JD's decision. It could be about the Sox decision on moving him.

2) I'm thinking, if JD is gone, there should be less need not more for JBJ. It would mean we are looking at a rebuild and reset. Keeping JBJ does not fit into that plan.

 

(Yes, I know we can reset by keeping JBJ, if JD is not back, but it would still be a waste keeping a $10M one year player. Instead, use the budget space to look for some strategic FA signings at relatively low or moderate prices that will still allow us to sign Betts or someone else after 2020.)

[Slasher9]

You said "but i believe if JDM does not opt-out this will directly lead to JBj being non-tendered. "

 

Basically, JBJ's fate might hang in the balance of JDM's decision to opt out or not.

 

Probably true...

 

apologies. i misread your post.

[harmony]

The Red Sox are unlikely to tender Jackie Bradley Jr. a contract unless the Sox already have a trade in place.

 

Bradley probably is worth his projected 2020 salary of $11 million to some teams but not to the Red Sox because of the luxury tax restraints. If a trade has not been prearranged, a potential trade partner would have the leverage of the Red Sox pressure to get under the luxury tax threshold. The Sox don't want to be in that position.

 

Then again, the Red Sox may simply to decline to tender a contract to Bradley.

[kenmeister]

The Red Sox are unlikely to tender Jackie Bradley Jr. a contract unless the Sox already have a trade in place.

 

Bradley probably is worth his projected 2020 salary of $11 million to some teams but not to the Red Sox because of the luxury tax restraints. If a trade has not been prearranged, a potential trade partner would have the leverage of the Red Sox pressure to get under the luxury tax threshold. The Sox don't want to be in that position.

 

Then again, the Red Sox may simply to decline to tender a contract to Bradley.

 

I don't see the $11 million for 2020 being worth it.

 

2016 avg/obp/slg/ops: .267 / .349 / . 486 / .835 -> good player!

2017 avg/obp/slg/ops: .245 / .323 / .402 / .725 -> mediocre player

2018 avg/obp/slg/ops: .234 / .314 / .403 / .717 -> mediocre player (also 17 steals to 1 caught stealing, which is really good)

2019 avg/obp/slg/ops: .225 / .317 / .421 / .738 -> borderline player

 

I don't think we're going to see the 2016 JBJ again. He did crest over 20 homers again, but it was the year of the Manfred missile. His batting average has been trending downwards he could hit .220 or lower in 2020. Defense can only take you so far. I bet we can find someone who can hit better and play defense almost as good for $4 million or less.

[S5Dewey]

1) We could trade JD, if he opts in, so it's not all about JD's decision. It could be about the Sox decision on moving him.

2) I'm thinking, if JD is gone, there should be less need not more for JBJ. It would mean we are looking at a rebuild and reset. Keeping JBJ does not fit into that plan.

 

I think that depends on how bad you want the team to be during the reset.

[harmony]

I don't see the $11 million for 2020 being worth it.

 

2016 avg/obp/slg/ops: .267 / .349 / . 486 / .835 -> good player!

2017 avg/obp/slg/ops: .245 / .323 / .402 / .725 -> mediocre player

2018 avg/obp/slg/ops: .234 / .314 / .403 / .717 -> mediocre player (also 17 steals to 1 caught stealing, which is really good)

2019 avg/obp/slg/ops: .225 / .317 / .421 / .738 -> borderline player

 

I don't think we're going to see the 2016 JBJ again. He did crest over 20 homers again, but it was the year of the Manfred missile. His batting average has been trending downwards he could hit .220 or lower in 2020. Defense can only take you so far. I bet we can find someone who can hit better and play defense almost as good for $4 million or less.

One website gives Jackie Bradley Jr. a surplus value of $1.8 million based on an adjusted field value of $12.8 million and his projected 2020 salary of $11 million:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

[Kimmi]

I'm just sitting back quietly listening to the chatter about all the reasons they're going to either non-tender JBJ or trade him so I can smile happily when April comes and he's still on the roster.

 

Sure, they may have to pay him $10M to keep him next year and they can likely sign someone who's cheaper but at the same time you often get what you pay for and the FO knows it. Logic says he stays unless, of course, you think that those GG Cf'ers with an OPS of >.700 grow on trees and they're everywhere.

 

I am all about keeping JBJ. However, if Henry is truly going to reset, non-tendering or trading him makes the most sense. I am opposed to it, but it makes the most sense.

[Kimmi]

I believe the Sox will wait until next year to reset.

[moonslav59]

I think that depends on how bad you want the team to be during the reset.

 

We might be able to trade JD, Betts & JBJ for some decent ML ready and younger talent and then makes some free agent signings that are either to bridge us to the rebuilt team or are part of the longer term future. We could spend just enough to reset and be pretty good- certainly not as good as a team with a healthy Betts, JD and JBJ but still pretty good.

[moonslav59]

I believe the Sox will wait until next year to reset.

 

I think we non tender or trade JBJ and maybe Hembree. We go into 2020 just under the line, and if we look like we might compete, we might add some salary and go for it. If we look bad, we'll trade JD & Betts in July.

 

This plan might also sell more season tickets.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Hembree is 100% getting non tendered. He suffered an elbow injury and when he returned, he lost a lot of stuff. Tells me he has something in there that is serious and if I am the sox GM, I am not paying him to rehab

[moonslav59]

I think Hembree is 100% getting non tendered. He suffered an elbow injury and when he returned, he lost a lot of stuff. Tells me he has something in there that is serious and if I am the sox GM, I am not paying him to rehab

 

It's really a shame as he was on his way to a career year before the injury. He admitted he tried to rush back too quickly.

 

You may be right about non tendering him, but the Sox did get a short look at the end of the year and may have seen something encouraging.

 

His velocity was very low, but he only pitched in 2 games in September.

[notin]

Non-tendering doesn’t mean “cutting.” The Sox could non-tender Hembree and then bring him back, possibly even on a MiLB contract if he has no other offers...

[moonslav59]

Non-tendering doesn’t mean “cutting.” The Sox could non-tender Hembree and then bring him back, possibly even on a MiLB contract if he has no other offers...

 

Yes. Same with JBJ.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR

 

The Reds discussed Jackie Bradley, Jr. with the Red Sox last offseason, relays the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale. While there’s no indication talks progressed very far or have picked up since, it’s still noteworthy to hear Cincinnati’s front office liked the player not too long ago. Bradley’s one of the offseason’s most obvious trade candidates, as we’ve already heard rumblings Boston would shop him this winter to ameliorate payroll concerns. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently explored Bradley’s market in full and noted that the Reds have some uncertainty in center field if they believe Nick Senzel to be more valuable at second base. Bradley didn’t have a banner 2019 season and comes with a rather significant arbitration projection ($11MM), but the free agent market in center field isn’t particularly robust.