The JD opt out

[notin]

I don't know. You tell me.

 

No they didn’t.

 

The Sox didn’t miss out on Lester because they traded him. They didn’t bring him back because the Cubs offered more, which happens with nearly every free agent...

[notin]

Peter Abraham's piece about JD not opting out says that JD's AAV for 2020 will now be 23.75 mill instead of 22 mill.

 

Which makes no sense whatsoever and which I believe is dead wrong.

 

It might be. He might even have meant salary and not AAV.

 

Unless the CBA only does guaranteed years and then lowers it retroactively if there are option years at a lower value...

[oldtimer]

Believe what you want. There is a $15M player benefit cost that counts against the luxury budget. I used cots- the most respected source out there and the arb projections from MLBTR, who have been very accurate over the years.

 

With nobody re-signed and no FAs singed, we are about $10M over. Not bringing JBJ back puts us about even. We can let Leon and Hembree go to as a bit more, but my numbers are very close to accurate.

 

The tax limit next year is $208M, so that site is messed up. cots has us $57M under the line, but they do not count arbs.

 

Your claim of not signing Porcello would open $24M to spend is wrong on so many levels, I'm getting close to putting you on ignore. (I've only done that once on this site, so consider yourself special.)

 

In addition to the $15 mil for comp and benes, I like to see a buffer for mid season moves. I have used $6 mil as a small but useful amount to have in reserve. It will be difficult to get there, since even if you take out Leon, Hembree and JBJ, you need to find replacement, who may cost less but still something. I think there will be another significant shoe to drop (meaning trade) but the devil will be in the details. Packaging a good current player with one of our underperforming starters makes sense as a solution, but isn't the only way..

[Bellhorn04]

It might be. He might even have meant salary and not AAV.

 

Unless the CBA only does guaranteed years and then lowers it retroactively if there are option years at a lower value...

 

There should be no change in the calculations. JD didn't opt out. So in effect nothing happened.

 

If he had opted out and then signed a new deal like Chapman did, there would be some adjustments.

 

It's all a bit confusing, needless to say.

[Bellhorn04]

No they didn’t.

 

The Sox didn’t miss out on Lester because they traded him. They didn’t bring him back because the Cubs offered more, which happens with nearly every free agent...

 

If I'm not mistaken, Lester said something about being traded not helping matters for the Sox.

 

But if the reported numbers are true, our final offer was 6/135 and the Cubs tacked on an additional 20, so it seems like it was just a case of the Cubs being willing to pay whatever it took.

[notin]

If I'm not mistaken, Lester said something about being traded not helping matters for the Sox.

 

But if the reported numbers are true, our final offer was 6/135 and the Cubs tacked on an additional 20, so it seems like it was just a case of the Cubs being willing to pay whatever it took.

 

Exactly. It was the Cubs’ offer that got him to Chicago. Players don’t hire agents to settle personal vendettas for being traded...

[jacksonianmarch]

It might be. He might even have meant salary and not AAV.

 

Unless the CBA only does guaranteed years and then lowers it retroactively if there are option years at a lower value...

 

Pete Abe is wrong. This wasn’t an option year. This was an opt out. JD’s contract is 5 yrs $110 mil, ie a $22 mil AAV. JD didn’t opt into anything, he declined to opt out of his 5 year contract

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Injury history? Last year was the first time. Inciarte played less than 130 games since 2014.

 

Kyle Wright has already made his MLB debut and was BA#39. Muller was in AA last year with a 3.14 ERA at age 21.

 

 

For one year of Betts, it’s actually a fair deal...

 

Here's what Bloom is up against: such a deal may be "fair" as in equitable, if you're a new MLB GM... but to Sox fans, that type of return may only be "fair" in the context of collectibles -- like the comic book grading system, where "fair" is at best "unattractive" (and behind more preferred grades like mint, near mint, very fine, fine, very good and good).

 

We're all speculating about Betts' fate -- and maybe Bloom is already fielding offers -- but it's just as likely he is working harder on trades for JBJ, and either Chavis or Dalbec (in order to move Price). Such a plan may have already been outlined before his hire, like when Kennedy suggested, "There is a way to keep both JD and Mookie, but it won't be easy."

 

Maybe Bloom was hired, in part, as the man to accomplish that specific task. We hope.

[Bellhorn04]

It might be. He might even have meant salary and not AAV.

 

Unless the CBA only does guaranteed years and then lowers it retroactively if there are option years at a lower value...

 

Pete Abe is wrong. This wasn’t an option year. This was an opt out. JD’s contract is 5 yrs $110 mil, ie a $22 mil AAV. JD didn’t opt into anything, he declined to opt out of his 5 year contract

 

Having given this some more thought, I believe that the real issue for the Sox is if JD opts out after 2020.

 

In that case I think we will get whacked with a 'true-up' adjustment of 5.25 million, because he got paid 71.25 million over 3 years.

 

So the payroll numbers would be as follows:

 

2018 22

2019 22

2020 27.25

Total 71.25

 

That would be an ouch.

[Elktonnick]

Here's what Bloom is up against: such a deal may be "fair" as in equitable, if you're a new MLB GM... but to Sox fans, that type of return may only be "fair" in the context of collectibles -- like the comic book grading system, where "fair" is at best "unattractive" (and behind more preferred grades like mint, near mint, very fine, fine, very good and good).

 

We're all speculating about Betts' fate -- and maybe Bloom is already fielding offers -- but it's just as likely he is working harder on trades for JBJ, and either Chavis or Dalbec (in order to move Price). Such a plan may have already been outlined before his hire, like when Kennedy suggested, "There is a way to keep both JD and Mookie, but it won't be easy."

 

Maybe Bloom was hired, in part, as the man to accomplish that specific task. We hope.

 

Sox pres said yesterday getting below 208 million isn't a hard and fast rule. If this is an accurate reflection of Henry's thinking and there is no reason to think it isn't then a lot assumptions made in this thread need to be reevaluated.

[Bellhorn04]

Sox pres said yesterday getting below 208 million isn't a hard and fast rule. If this is an accurate reflection of Henry's thinking and there is no reason to think it isn't then a lot assumptions made in this thread need to be reevaluated.

 

Sox pres said that a while ago too.

 

We're all just guessing and speculating our butts off here. It's all just for entertainment purposes.

[Elktonnick]

Sox pres said that a while ago too.

 

We're all just guessing and speculating our butts off here. It's all just for entertainment purposes.

 

In the guessing and speculating dept, I I now am guessing Henry encouraged this whole speculation as part of a negotiating strategy.

[notin]

In the guessing and speculating dept, I I now am guessing Henry encouraged this whole speculation as part of a negotiating strategy.

 

For negotiating with who?

[notin]

Let Atlanta keep Enderman and give us the two elite OF prospects, plus the pitching prospects -- that's the only kind of haul that would maybe make it worth happening... to me, a Red Sox fan.

 

Anyone remember the Von Hayes trade?

 

Back in the early-80s, the Phillies bit on a 5-for-1, sending four prospects (plus veteran Manny Trillo, on the downside of his career) to Cleveland for Hayes, a young outfielder coming off a decent rookie year. None of the players Philly gave up amounted to much -- except Julio Franco, who played until he was 48 and won five Silver Slugger Awards, a batting title, and earned 43.5 bWAR -- but for eight different clubs.

 

Hayes had a few good seasons in a 12-year career in which he contributed 29.1 WAR. He was never a superstar... or even Julio Franco. The deal was a stunner at the time, but maybe an example of a trade that was ultimately mediocre, that no one really won. Each team involved eventually lost more games than it won through the end of that decade.

 

Obviously, nothing is a sure thing. These cliches of generalities are coming to you live from another poster who's on board with paying Betts 30-plus million a year for the next decade... a contract that likely breaks down in actual value to about 43.3 mil per for the next six, and only 10 mil per for the last four. And I think he will earn it.

 

1, Not getting the Von Hayes trade as a parallel. Thare have been so many similar unspectacular trades that I'm not seeing with this 38yo example stands out more than, say, the trade that set Ken Giles to Houston for a boatload of minor leaguers where the best one turned out to be Vince Velasquez...

 

2. No way in hell the Braves give up both Pache and Waters - both top 30 prospects in all of MLB - for the right to pay Mookie Betts $30mill for one season. If the Sox could get Waters alone, that would be a coup...

[Elktonnick]

For negotiating with who?

 

Henry is lowering expectations with whomever the team will be negotiating with in the near term. Like I said it is my opinion others may disagree but that is my view of what he is doing. If any has a better guess than go for it.

[a700hitter]

If I'm not mistaken, Lester said something about being traded not helping matters for the Sox.

 

But if the reported numbers are true, our final offer was 6/135 and the Cubs tacked on an additional 20, so it seems like it was just a case of the Cubs being willing to pay whatever it took.

Once you have uprooted your family and moved across the country, a huge psychological barrier has been overcome.

[notin]

Once you have uprooted your family and moved across the country, a huge psychological barrier has been overcome.

 

A lot of players don't move when they get traded. Especially those who get traded with only 3 months until free agency.

 

Did Giancarlo Stanton ever move out of that penthouse in Miami?

[Slasher9]

i think he just paid to have the whole building moved to West 57th.....

[Tedballgame]

So JD stays. Merloni was talking about this on the way home. He says this allows the Sox to deal off Betts and keep a pretty good offense. Also, this spells the end for JBJ as they need to free up some cash. Not sure if he’s right, but Merloni knows baseball and certainly has some history with the Sox

Exactly. Great post Jax.

[Behindenemylines]

In the guessing and speculating dept, I I now am guessing Henry encouraged this whole speculation as part of a negotiating strategy.

 

Or to get Red Sox Nation ready when Mookie is traded.

[Elktonnick]

Or to get Red Sox Nation ready when Mookie is traded.

 

That also

[moonslav59]

Sox pres said that a while ago too.

 

We're all just guessing and speculating our butts off here. It's all just for entertainment purposes.

 

I've been going on the assumption that we will almost certainly reset in 2020 or 2021. I'm of the opinion that 2020 makes more sense, because I want to keep Betts, but in no way do I want to put out the notion that I think the Sox have the same mindset and I do.

 

Yes, it's just opinions.

 

We may not reset for years. We may stay under for 2 years in a row.

 

My main concern, right now, is more about 2021 and beyond (Betts or no Betts) and not 2020. I understand we still have a solid core of players that could gel and all get healthy at the same time and surprise me. I'm okay with hovering around the tax line into July and making the big choice then, but if we decide to sell in July, I think it should be a fire sale: Betts, JD, Price, Eovaldi (assuming all are healthy and able to be traded). If we decide to give it one more try, then trade for some salary, pay the tax one more year and roll the dice. Win or not, I'd think a reset would come in 2021, no matter what, but again, it's just my opinion.

[kenmeister]

If I'm a rival GM, and I know the Sox are dying to unload Price and Eovaldi, I'd ask for those two *plus* E-Rod and Bogaerts, and in exchange I'd offer a decent starter, a decent outfielder, and a decent shortstop, all of whom are low cost. Would any of you do that deal?

[Bellhorn04]

If I'm a rival GM, and I know the Sox are dying to unload Price and Eovaldi, I'd ask for those two *plus* E-Rod and Bogaerts, and in exchange I'd offer a decent starter, a decent outfielder, and a decent shortstop, all of whom are low cost. Would any of you do that deal?

 

You just made my head spin like a Tilt-a-Whirl.

[moonslav59]

If I'm a rival GM, and I know the Sox are dying to unload Price and Eovaldi, I'd ask for those two *plus* E-Rod and Bogaerts, and in exchange I'd offer a decent starter, a decent outfielder, and a decent shortstop, all of whom are low cost. Would any of you do that deal?

 

If decent means almost as good as ERod & Bogey and a plus OF'er, I'd think about it, but would take on that amount of salary for 2 years of ERod and 5 years of Bogey at $20M per? (Not that Bogey's contract is bad- it isn't.)

[Elktonnick]

This is Ken Rosenthal's take as published in the Athletic:

 

" Rival executives express doubt that any suitor will want to take on that salary and part with quality prospects to keep Betts for only one season before he reaches free agency. [/u]Some team, though, might be wise to make such a move. Betts, over his five full seasons, has averaged $56.7 million in value, according to FanGraphs’ dollars metric, which converts Wins Above Replacement to a dollar scale based upon what a player would make in free agency. In other words, he’s walking surplus value, even at a salary approaching $30 million.

Still, clubs dread trading prospects, and perhaps the only way a team would make such a deal would be if the Red Sox granted a negotiating window to sign Betts to a long-term extension. Most clubs in the Red Sox’s position are loath to agree to such a condition, knowing their leverage will be compromised if news of the proposed trade becomes public and the deal falls apart. Besides, Betts has refused numerous long-term offers from the Red Sox and seems intent on hitting the open market.

So, the Sox are in a pickle. Trading Betts would be not only unpopular but also counter-productive for a team that intends to rebound in 2020. Trading Martinez, meanwhile, would be difficult for the reasons that persuaded him not to opt out — a market that is limited to AL clubs, and the fact he is owed $62.5 million over three years entering his age-32 season."

 

Comments

[notin]

If I'm a rival GM, and I know the Sox are dying to unload Price and Eovaldi, I'd ask for those two *plus* E-Rod and Bogaerts, and in exchange I'd offer a decent starter, a decent outfielder, and a decent shortstop, all of whom are low cost. Would any of you do that deal?

 

A deal for those 4 means committing over $200mill over the next 3 seasons to 4 players, two of whom have legitimate injury concerns. And at the cost of 3 decent players. I doubt any GM makes that deal unless it's at gunpoint...

[Slasher9]

Once you have uprooted your family and moved across the country, a huge psychological barrier has been overcome.

 

this is actually a really really good point. especially for a player that grew up in the Org.

[Slasher9]

If I'm a rival GM, and I know the Sox are dying to unload Price and Eovaldi, I'd ask for those two *plus* E-Rod and Bogaerts, and in exchange I'd offer a decent starter, a decent outfielder, and a decent shortstop, all of whom are low cost. Would any of you do that deal?

 

X-bo is untouchable for me. unless the player coming back has the name of a fish on his back...

[kenmeister]

(Not that Bogey's contract is bad- it isn't.)

 

I think in the years to come we will find his contract is a steal.