The JD opt out

[fxkatt]

I'd rather do that than lose Betts and JD for nothing next winter.

 

Yes, this is an actual possibility. But Strasburg is kind of in that Sale category or Risky. But his price, at age 31, will be maybe 7 million less per year than Cole's. Figure about 26 mill over 4-5 years.

[moonslav59]

Yes, this is an actual possibility. But Strasburg is kind of in that Sale category or Risky. But his price, at age 31, will be maybe 7 million less per year than Cole's. Figure about 26 mill over 4-5 years.

 

I'd prefer to spend the money saved by trading Betts, JD and a pitcher on more moderate players- looking for less risk by spreading the risk over several players.

 

Let's use Bloom's skills to their best advantage- finding diamonds in the ruff. With more money to spend that he had in TB, maybe he can find even more and then occasionally splurging on a big name when the fit and need lines up.

[fxkatt]

I'd prefer to spend the money saved by trading Betts, JD and a pitcher on more moderate players- looking for less risk by spreading the risk over several players.

 

Let's use Bloom's skills to their best advantage- finding diamonds in the ruff. With more money to spend that he had in TB, maybe he can find even more and then occasionally splurging on a big name when the fit and need lines up.

 

I agree. And wd add that 4-5 year contracts with first class pos players carry less risk than the same for pitchers. But longer than 5 years always raise worries with any player.

[moonslav59]

I agree. And wd add that 4-5 year contracts with first class pos players carry less risk than the same for pitchers. But longer than 5 years always raise worries with any player.

 

Pitching wins rings. Many positional players signed to big deals have flopped, as well.

 

I agree that deals should be no longer than 4-5 years, but I think there are rare exceptions.

 

[kenmeister]

 

Getting nothing for Betts and then watching him walk away for just 4th round pick would be worse than the Lester fiasco.

 

Let's say the Sox keep Betts this off-season and we go into the season with the team as it is. And let's say by the trading deadline we're doing great. I'd say keep Betts and try to get a championship, even if he then walks after the year ends and we don't get anything for him.

[fxkatt]

I'd trade Betts this off-season to a team like LA, Atlanta, or Chicago (Cubs) which can sign him long term at year's end. We should be able to get quite a haul of young players from a team determined to pay him. If this is not the case (no haul) then I would look to other cost-cutting trades as in Martinez, Price etc.

 

But at 12:1 odds (generous) I don't think hanging onto Betts is going to up the chances enough to give him up for nothing following '20.

[moonslav59]

I'd trade Betts this off-season to a team like LA, Atlanta, or Chicago (Cubs) which can sign him long term at year's end. We should be able to get quite a haul of young players from a team determined to pay him. If this is not the case (no haul) then I would look to other cost-cutting trades as in Martinez, Price etc.

 

But at 12:1 odds (generous) I don't think hanging onto Betts is going to up the chances enough to give him up for nothing following '20.

 

12:1 is generous, but the real number that matters is how many teams have better odds?

[moonslav59]

Let's say the Sox keep Betts this off-season and we go into the season with the team as it is. And let's say by the trading deadline we're doing great. I'd say keep Betts and try to get a championship, even if he then walks after the year ends and we don't get anything for him.

 

I can see that happening.

 

If we end up not winning it all, not making some trades this winter or next summer will slow the rebuild.

[Elktonnick]

Let's say the Sox keep Betts this off-season and we go into the season with the team as it is. And let's say by the trading deadline we're doing great. I'd say keep Betts and try to get a championship, even if he then walks after the year ends and we don't get anything for him.

 

I am with you. The object is to win championships. The team as it currently is, is a contender. Of course they would be a better contender with a couple additions.

 

Betts may not want to play in Boston after next year as some have reported. So he may be gone after the 2020 season in any case. But he is a Red Sox for next season. It is highly unlikely that Boston would reap any where near his value if they trade him this off season. If they were to trade him without adequate return that would allow the team to contend in 2020 Henry would suffer a tremendous backlash. Fans will not tolerate the Sox not fielding a competitive team just because the owner sets an artificial budget limitation while he charges the highest prices in baseball for tickets.

 

Some think that fans will continue to fill Fenway regardless. I think that would be wishful thinking. Ten years ago NASCAR twice a year was drawing over 100,000 spectators per race to Dover (DE) for their races. In 2016 they removed over 30,000 seats at the racetrack because demand for tickets collapsed. This past month they announced that they were going to remove another 29,000 seats because demand for NASCAR continues to slide. I know Major League Baseball and the Boston Red Sox aren't NASCAR but both are competing for the sport fans dollar. Red Sox ownership needs to keep that in their mind as they go about their drive to reduce payroll.

[moonslav59]

I am with you. The object is to win championships. The team as it currently is, is a contender. Of course they would be a better contender with a couple additions.

 

Betts may not want to play in Boston after next year as some have reported. So he may be gone after the 2020 season in any case. But he is a Red Sox for next season. It is highly unlikely that Boston would reap any where near his value if they trade him this off season. If they were to trade him without adequate return that would allow the team to contend in 2020 Henry would suffer a tremendous backlash. Fans will not tolerate the Sox not fielding a competitive team just because the owner sets an artificial budget limitation while he charges the highest prices in baseball for tickets.

 

Some think that fans will continue to fill Fenway regardless. I think that would be wishful thinking. Ten years ago NASCAR twice a year was drawing over 100,000 spectators per race to Dover (DE) for their races. In 2016 they removed over 30,000 seats at the racetrack because demand for tickets collapsed. This past month they announced that they were going to remove another 29,000 seats because demand for NASCAR continues to slide. I know Major League Baseball and the Boston Red Sox aren't NASCAR but both are competing for the sport fans dollar. Red Sox ownership needs to keep that in their mind as they go about their drive to reduce payroll.

 

Trading Betts & JBJ allows Bllom to spend nearly $28M on FAs this winter, plus what we get back for Betts, which could be ML ready players.

 

We could still be competitive without Betts and JBJ, if Bloom does his thing with multiple small/moderate signings. We have a lot of gaps gto be considered a true contender for 2020, and I'm not even talking about us needing a bunch of players to get and stay healthy.

 

We need a 5th SP'er.

We need 2 decent RP'ers.

We need a 1Bman.

We may need a 2Bman.

We need a back-up C.

We need OF depth, even if we keep JBJ & Betts.

 

To fill all these needs and be highly competitive in 2020, we'll be near the max line again.

 

It ain't happening.

[Elktonnick]

Trading Betts & JBJ allows Bllom to spend nearly $28M on FAs this winter, plus what we get back for Betts, which could be ML ready players.

 

We could still be competitive without Betts and JBJ, if Bloom does his thing with multiple small/moderate signings. We have a lot of gaps gto be considered a true contender for 2020, and I'm not even talking about us needing a bunch of players to get and stay healthy.

 

We need a 5th SP'er.

We need 2 decent RP'ers.

We need a 1Bman.

We may need a 2Bman.

We need a back-up C.

We need OF depth, even if we keep JBJ & Betts.

 

To fill all these needs and be highly competitive in 2020, we'll be near the max line again.

 

It ain't happening.

 

What makes you think we would get a ML ready player for Betts that would allow the team to remain a contender. It would be a one year rental. Which team would be willing to give whom for one year of Betts. It would more convincing if you had a specific team and players in mind.

[notin]

What makes you think we would get a ML ready player for Betts that would allow the team to remain a contender. It would be a one year rental. Which team would be willing to give whom for one year of Betts. It would more convincing if you had a specific team and players in mind.

 

 

What if the Sox get a package from Atlanta that includes OF Ender Inciarte, RHP Kyle Wright, and LHP Kyle Muller?

 

Sox get a CF with a $6mill AAV and 2 years of control plus two good pitching prospects. Atlanta gets an MVP-caliber CF who also acts as a bridge to their two elite OF prospects Christian Pache and Drew Waters...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd trade Betts this off-season to a team like LA, Atlanta, or Chicago (Cubs) which can sign him long term at year's end. We should be able to get quite a haul of young players from a team determined to pay him. If this is not the case (no haul) then I would look to other cost-cutting trades as in Martinez, Price etc.

 

But at 12:1 odds (generous) I don't think hanging onto Betts is going to up the chances enough to give him up for nothing following '20.

 

If there is any chance at all to up the chance of Betts signing in Boston, then it will be if he's kept in a Red Sox uniform until he's a free agent.

Say he has another great year and leads the Sox to another great year... it's not hard imagine a crescendo of reporters in articles and talk-shows extolling his virtues and how imperative it will be to back up the Brink's truck -- with a six-state Nation in hysterics, imploring their beloved Mookie to change his mind and stay, stay, stay in a six-month campaign of star-struck pleading... showering him with love... posters, placards, poems, petitions... standing O's, standing offers, sit-ins, hunger strikes.

 

Ah, maybe not.

[Kimmi]

Two words: Mookie trade.

 

JD back means Mookie likely isn’t...

 

Personally, if we have the choice of only being able to keep one, I'd rather have JD than Mookie.

[Kimmi]

That's what I'm thinking too. And from a selfish viewpoint trading Mookie makes it more palatable (and smarter) to keep JBJ.

 

I think the Sox will find a way to keep JD and Mookie, but JBJ will be non-tendered or traded.

[Kimmi]

It's definitely looking like mookie wants 300 plus .Time to make a trade

 

I've said it before and it didn't sit well with most posters, but frankly, I'm over Betts' desire to get the most money. Yes, I understand that he has earned that right. I also understand that money isn't everything, especially when the Sox have reportedly given Betts some very fair offers.

 

With that said, we are a better team with Betts than without him. I hope the Sox can find a way to keep both Betts and JD this year, then either trade him at the deadline if the Sox are out of contention, or let him walk.

 

With that said, the best option for the Sox long term sustainability would be to trade Mookie this year.

 

I'm so conflicted. LOL

[Kimmi]

I know they have the right to sign & then trade (or in this case say or imply that they weren't going to trade JDM) but it seems unethical to me. I would think that a team's doing this would make players look askance at any deal with that team in the future.

 

I'm still smarting from what the FO did to Bronson Arroyo - he took a hometown discount to stay with the Sox and they immediately traded him.

 

I'm not sure that 'unethical' is the right term, but otherwise, I agree completely with you. I hope that the Sox were up front with JD in terms of their desire to trade him or not.

[Kimmi]

That's not my point at all. Slash is speculating that DD 'bid against himself' on JDM. I'm just saying we have no clue who bid what.

 

Signing JD to the contract that he did was one of Dombrowski's better moves.

[Kimmi]

But the fact remains that we had this very conversation about Lester. "Let's let him walk, and resign him next year". And it worked out about like I thought it would. Do we really think it's going to work out better with Mookie? I very much believe that if he leaves he's gone for good.

 

Also, the argument can be made that it could have been 2-0 Sox if we'd been able to resign Lester.

 

Lester was insulted by a lowball offer though. I don't think that Mookie has been insulted by such an offer. It appears that Mookie is going for the most money. If the Sox offered him the most money next year, I think he'd come back. However, I don't think the Sox are willing to be the highest bidders.

[Kimmi]

The more I think about it, the more I remain unconvinced that the Red Sox are actually going to follow through with getting under $208M this winter. With the amount of talent on this roster, it may make more sense to plug 1B, 2B, and the 5th starter spot with internal options and/or 1-year free agents, make one more push in 2020 with the existing group, and re-set if you must in 2021, when you may lose Betts and Martinez whether you like it or not.

 

I'm probably wrong, but that scenario would personally feel easier to swallow than watching them do something this winter to actively make the team worse, like trading Mookie for an underwhelming return or giving JDM away in some salary dump. It would be nice if there was a magic bullet out there to save us like the 2012 trade with the Dodgers did, but I don't think there is...whatever we're going to need to do to get under the limit this winter is going to hurt.

 

This has pretty much been my feeling as well. I am not convinced that the Sox are going to get under $208 Mthis year. To me, it makes more sense to reset in 2021.

[Elktonnick]

I think the Sox will find a way to keep JD and Mookie, but JBJ will be non-tendered or traded.

 

I am with you, so do I

[moonslav59]

What makes you think we would get a ML ready player for Betts that would allow the team to remain a contender. It would be a one year rental. Which team would be willing to give whom for one year of Betts. It would more convincing if you had a specific team and players in mind.

 

Come on, really?

 

Trades are made all the time for 2 month rentals who are way worse than Betts.

 

We can get something very good for Betts, and if we demand it, not saying we should, ML ready players, we can get 2 or 3. The added value would be the FAs we sign with the $28M opened up in the budget.

 

You must think Betts sucks.

 

His $28M will scare many tgeams away, but he's worth $40M+++++/1 for 2020.

 

[Elktonnick]

What if the Sox get a package from Atlanta that includes OF Ender Inciarte, RHP Kyle Wright, and LHP Kyle Muller?

 

Sox get a CF with a $6mill AAV and 2 years of control plus two good pitching prospects. Atlanta gets an MVP-caliber CF who also acts as a bridge to their two elite OF prospects Christian Pache and Drew Waters...

 

Such a deal would be for the Braves and not very good for Boston. Incarte injury history last year makes him problematic and the two pitchers are unlikely to be major league ready if at all in the near term.

[Elktonnick]

Come on, really?

 

Trades are made all the time for 2 month rentals who are way worse than Betts.

 

We can get something very good for Betts, and if we demand it, not saying we should, ML ready players, we can get 2 or 3. The added value would be the FAs we sign with the $28M opened up in the budget.

 

You must think Betts sucks.

 

His $28M will scare many tgeams away, but he's worth $40M+++++/1 for 2020.

 

 

I guess that means you can't name a team or the players that would be realistic. So you are really advocating a salary dump.

[Bellhorn04]

I guess that means you can't name a team or the players that would be realistic. So you are really advocating a salary dump.

 

notin has come up with some trade proposals. Also, harmony has quoted Mookie's calculated trade value in $.

[Elktonnick]

notin has come up with some trade proposals. Also, harmony has quoted Mookie's calculated trade value in $.

 

If such proposals are realistic then they will be pursued. The problem is these forums come up with trade proposal all the time. Most if not all are unrealistic. It is easy to come up with proposals when one has no responsibility for their execution or their consequences. The fact is trading Betts will have consequences some which may be unintended and unforeseen.

[moonslav59]

I guess that means you can't name a team or the players that would be realistic. So you are really advocating a salary dump.

 

Just because I can't name names, and nobody can, doesn't mean I want to trade Betts for crap. If all that is offered is crap, I wouldn't trade him, but the salary lost is a big part of the trade. We can sign 4-5 decent players with $28M.

 

I'm also for re-signing Betts in 2021 and would offer over $300M/10.

 

I guess I could pull some names out of my hat. How about...

 

To LAD for Joc Pederson and Yimi Garcia

To PHI for Hector Neris & Scott Kingery

Mookie & Price to SDP for Myers, Margot & Lamet

 

I can come up with more, if it matters.

[moonslav59]

If such proposals are realistic then they will be pursued. The problem is these forums come up with trade proposal all the time. Most if not all are unrealistic. It is easy to come up with proposals when one has no responsibility for their execution or their consequences. The fact is trading Betts will have consequences some which may be unintended and unforeseen.

 

So, to use your logic, nobody wants Betts, or all we'll get is crap for a guy worth over $70M by one estimator.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying I'd demand a ML ready package for Betts. I was just answering how we could still put a decent team on the field without Betts by getting ML players in return and using the money saved to fill in the 4-5 gaps we have right now.

 

I'd be fine with getting a couple top prospects 1-2 years away that appear "can't miss".

[Nick]

We did get E Rod for couple of months of Miller.