A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Go for it now, and not just because I'm old, or that 2021 may be threatened by global warming, a super volcano, solar flare, uncivil war, etc...

 

The Red Sox have a future Hall of Famer playing in his salary drive season in 2020, and that prospect looks like much more fun to follow instead of any other acquired prospect who has a 99.9% chance of never being as good.

 

And I'm not worried about restocking the farm system, because I think that will be a forte of Bloom's (and if they happen to suck in the next year or two, welcome the higher draft picks). My mug is half-full and I still haven't had a drink all year...

[S5Dewey]

"What if they trade Betts and Price and then win the World Series anyway?"

 

"Sure, anything can happen. Sale and Eovaldi might not miss a start between them..."

 

"And I might flap my arms and fly to the moon..."

 

 

Yep. And there's about the same chance of both of those scenarios coming true.

Edited January 5, 2020 by S5Dewey

[notin]

"What if they trade Betts and Price and then win the World Series anyway?"

 

"Sure, anything can happen. Sale and Eovaldi might not miss a start between them..."

 

"And I might flap my arms and fly to the moon..."

 

 

Yep. And there's about the same chance of both of those scenarios coming true.

 

 

I’d say it’s pretty naive to think the Sox have absolutely no chance at winning if they trade Betts and Price. Were you one of those who said the Cardinals had no chance in 2011 when Wainwright went down for the year with Tommy John? And yet they still won it all.

 

(For the record, I was among those who said they had no chance when Wainwright went down.)

[S5Dewey]

I’d say it’s pretty naive to think the Sox have absolutely no chance at winning if they trade Betts and Price. Were you one of those who said the Cardinals had no chance in 2011 when Wainwright went down for the year with Tommy John? And yet they still won it all.

 

(For the record, I was among those who said they had no chance when Wainwright went down.)

 

I would never say that a team has no chance of winning any individual game or any series of games. I've seen some very unexpected things happen in MLB.

But I would say that I'd bet against the Sox winning the WS if both Betts and Price get traded provided, of course, they don't find some way to land Trout and a TOL pitcher - which is quite unlikely in itself!

[notin]

I would never say that a team has no chance of winning any individual game or any series of games. I've seen some very unexpected things happen in MLB.

But I would say that I'd bet against the Sox winning the WS if both Betts and Price get traded provided, of course, they don't find some way to land Trout and a TOL pitcher - which is quite unlikely in itself!

 

Really? You think this team couldn't survive moving Price and Betts? Unless they brought in Trout? And really, what does Price bring to the table anymore that is so irreplaceable?

 

That's actually a massive oversimplification.

[a700hitter]

I would never say that a team has no chance of winning any individual game or any series of games. I've seen some very unexpected things happen in MLB.

But I would say that I'd bet against the Sox winning the WS if both Betts and Price get traded provided, of course, they don't find some way to land Trout and a TOL pitcher - which is quite unlikely in itself!

I agree. If they move them both, they would be punting on the season.

[cp176]

I would never say that a team has no chance of winning any individual game or any series of games. I've seen some very unexpected things happen in MLB.

But I would say that I'd bet against the Sox winning the WS if both Betts and Price get traded provided, of course, they don't find some way to land Trout and a TOL pitcher - which is quite unlikely in itself!

 

Letting a player like Betts go, would clearly be a money move. Moving Price, the same whether you like him or not. Having a competitive team under those conditions would be very unlikely and very costly. if the team lets a potential generational talent go and replaces him with prospects who don't immediately produce, I would bet that the seats at Fenway would become a lot cheaper. The concept of resetting, restocking, or whatever, while appealing to some obviously, will not fly with many. it might be the right thing to do but it will be a very tough sell to the people paying to go to the games.

[S5Dewey]

Really? You think this team couldn't survive moving Price and Betts? And really, what does Price bring to the table anymore that is so irreplaceable?

 

I think the team would "survive" if they traded both Betts and Price. They'd still be there at 4 Jersey Street, Boston, MA 02215, but I don't think they'd win the WS. In fact, I'd bet against it.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Betts to the Dodgers, IMO, brings in the risk that they will sign him to an extension. The Dodgers are just the team that could pull that off.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the team would "survive" if they traded both Betts and Price. They'd still be there at 4 Jersey Street, Boston, MA 02215, but I don't think they'd win the WS. In fact, I'd bet against it.

 

I think most would agree that if the Sox have a chance to win it all without Betts and Price, they have a better chance to win it all with Betts and Price.

[notin]

I think the team would "survive" if they traded both Betts and Price. They'd still be there at 4 Jersey Street, Boston, MA 02215, but I don't think they'd win the WS. In fact, I'd bet against it.

 

Betting against it doesn’t mean anything. You’d also be smart to bet against the team as it stands right now with Betts and Price. In fact, unless you got really good odds, you’d be stupid to bet on this team winning the World Series right now. Really, really, really good odds.

 

But if you think removing Betts and Price makes this team completely hapless - which you clearly do - that’s actually all the more reason to trade Betts and Price ASAP...

Edited January 5, 2020 by notin

[notin]

Trading Betts to the Dodgers, IMO, brings in the risk that they will sign him to an extension. The Dodgers are just the team that could pull that off.

 

Are they really? The Dodgers do have a habit of coming up just short when it comes to free agents.

 

Outside of giving Kershaw a 7 year $215 million deal when he was their own 26yo pitcher still under team control, how many times have they really given out a mega contract?

[Bellhorn04]

Are they really? The Dodgers do have a habit of coming up just short when it comes to free agents.

 

Outside of giving Kershaw a 7 year $215 million deal when he was their own 26yo pitcher still under team control, how many times have they really given out a mega contract?

 

The current Dodgers ownership hasn't been in place that long. And of course the first thing they did was the crazy Punto trade.

 

The chances of it may not be high, maybe only 10%.

 

But I think it's fair to say that the Dodgers are in as good a position or better than any other team to do it. They have the money, it's a good place to play, they're loaded with prospects etc.

[notin]

The current Dodgers ownership hasn't been in place that long. And of course the first thing they did was the crazy Punto trade.

 

The chances of it may not be high, maybe only 10%.

 

But I think it's fair to say that the Dodgers are in as good a position or better than any other team to do it. They have the money, it's a good place to play, they're loaded with prospects etc.

 

 

And they also seem to avoid those type of long term deals. Even their latest extension to Kershaw was only 3 years.

 

Could they afford it? Sure. But first of all, Betts is dead set against extensions. If he actually does sign one in LA after adamantly refusing to sign one in Boston, then trading him was the right move, because it means he doesn’t want to be in Boston. The only mistake is attaching him to Price as a salary dump (which is a mistake under any circumstances). Get something for him.

 

But I’d bet against the Dodgers extending Betts. They don’t seem to do long term deals very well...

[Bellhorn04]

Could they afford it? Sure. But first of all, Betts is dead set against extensions. If he actually does sign one in LA after adamantly refusing to sign one in Boston, then trading him was the right move, because it means he doesn’t want to be in Boston.

 

But we don't know what offers the Red Sox have made to Betts other than the one for $200 million a couple of years back.

 

Maybe their subsequent offers have been a little on the lowball side.

[notin]

But we don't know what offers the Red Sox have made to Betts other than the one for $200 million a couple of years back.

 

Maybe their subsequent offers have been a little on the lowball side.

 

Betts has adamantly said he wants to test the market. Is there any point in making offers at all (which Bloom has allegedly been doing)?

 

I don’t think anyone is extending Betts at this point...

[Bellhorn04]

Betts has adamantly said he wants to test the market. Is there any point in making offers at all (which Bloom has allegedly been doing)?

 

It's a good question. I'd be surprised if Betts has told the Red Sox to not even bother making any extension offers.

 

As you have often said, players hire agents for a reason, and I doubt that Betts's agent would tell him to take the stance of not even considering an extension.

 

Regardless of Mookie's public comments on the matter, there is a risk factor in playing with no contract after this year, and his agent would surely not counsel him to completely disregard that risk.

[oldtimer]

I think most would agree that if the Sox have a chance to win it all without Betts and Price, they have a better chance to win it all with Betts and Price.

 

I would think the chance is slim of winning it all with Betts and Price, primarily due to the stability of our starting pitching staff. Maybe Price can function as a 3rd or 4th starter in an organization next season, but his age and mileage rules against him continuing in the following years. The move to package Betts and Price makes some sense if there is a slim chance of winning in 2020 since it would free up resources to go after him for the 2021 season. Like it or not, DD's moves put the organization in a tough position for the 2020 season and Bloom is here to engineer a way back to competitiveness at the highest level. Finding one or two solid young starting pitchers would be my point of emphasis.

[notin]

It's a good question. I'd be surprised if Betts has told the Red Sox to not even bother making any extension offers.

 

As you have often said, players hire agents for a reason, and I doubt that Betts's agent would tell him to take the stance of not even considering an extension.

 

Regardless of Mookie's public comments on the matter, there is a risk factor in playing with no contract after this year, and his agent would surely not counsel him to completely disregard that risk.

 

 

It is possible Betts’ adamant public standing of reaching free agency is more than just financial - as in he doesn’t want to play in Boston. If it is, he should be dealt today.

 

If he could be extended, great. I’m not opposed to trading Betts, but I’m actually not in favor of attaching him to Price in a salary dump. That’s probably the worst way to get rid of a superstar, by using him to clean up another mess.

 

But it’s also very naive to think the Sox don’t know what Betts means to the franchise. People out here say fans will revolt, which is hyperbole to say the least. But Bloom and company can tell you the exact dollar value they expect to lose. They know what he means. So why hasn’t he been extended? Heck we had the biggest free-spending GM in MLB running the show 4 seasons and even he couldn’t extend Betts. And this is a man who signed 36yo Miguel Cabrera to a contract that STILL owes him a minimum of $124 million!!

 

It might be possible that Betts’ agent had advised him to wait it out. It certainly looks that way. And while there probably was a time he would have recommended extension, at one year away it does become a lot less likely.

 

Or maybe Mookie just wants another city...

[notin]

I would think the chance is slim of winning it all with Betts and Price, primarily due to the stability of our starting pitching staff. Maybe Price can function as a 3rd or 4th starter in an organization next season, but his age and mileage rules against him continuing in the following years. The move to package Betts and Price makes some sense if there is a slim chance of winning in 2020 since it would free up resources to go after him for the 2021 season. Like it or not, DD's moves put the organization in a tough position for the 2020 season and Bloom is here to engineer a way back to competitiveness at the highest level. Finding one or two solid young starting pitchers would be my point of emphasis.

 

But f you’re going to trade Betts, do it right. Fleece someone. Get something good! Set the team up going forward somewhat (which is admittedly difficult for one year of a $30mill player).

 

Don’t use him to clean up the Price mess...

[Bellhorn04]

It might be possible that Betts’ agent had advised him to wait it out. It certainly looks that way. And while there probably was a time he would have recommended extension, at one year away it does become a lot less likely.

 

It seems to me that a lot of big extensions are signed with one year to go on the contract.

[S5Dewey]

Betting against it doesn’t mean anything. You’d also be smart to bet against the team as it stands right now with Betts and Price. In fact, unless you got really good odds, you’d be stupid to bet on this team winning the World Series right now. Really, really, really good odds.

 

But if you think removing Betts and Price makes this team completely hapless - which you clearly do - that’s actually all the more reason to trade Betts and Price ASAP...

 

Perhaps I need to be more succinct.

 

I never said this team would be completely hapless without Betts and Price. Those are your words, not mine, so please don't put words into my mouth. It's not sanitary.

 

I would always bet against any team winning the WS before the season starts. However, I would be inclined to bet a LARGER sum of money on the Sox not winning the WSC without Betts and Price than I would if they were still on the team. Another

[notin]

Perhaps I need to be more succinct.

 

I never said this team would be completely hapless without Betts and Price. Those are your words, not mine, so please don't put words into my mouth. It's not sanitary.

 

I would always bet against any team winning the WS before the season starts. However, I would be inclined to bet a LARGER sum of money on the Sox not winning the WSC without Betts and Price than I would if they were still on the team. Another

 

Sorry. You never used the word “hapless.” You just said their chances were the equal to those of me flapping my arms and flying to the moon...

[a700hitter]

Betting against it doesn’t mean anything. You’d also be smart to bet against the team as it stands right now with Betts and Price. In fact, unless you got really good odds, you’d be stupid to bet on this team winning the World Series right now. Really, really, really good odds.

 

But if you think removing Betts and Price makes this team completely hapless - which you clearly do - that’s actually all the more reason to trade Betts and Price ASAP...

^ This is argumentative idiocy. Dumping Betts and Price effectively ends any possibility of the Red Sox competing for a World Championship. That is clear.

[S5Dewey]

Sorry. You never used the word “hapless.” You just said their chances were the equal to those of me flapping my arms and flying to the moon...

 

Well..no. Just to recap that conversation a bit:

 

You: "What if they trade Betts and Price and then win the World Series anyway?"

 

Bell: "Sure, anything can happen. Sale and Eovaldi might not miss a start between them..."

 

You: "And I might flap my arms and fly to the moon..."

 

Me: Yep. And there's about the same chance of both of those scenarios coming true.

 

Yep. And there's about the same chance of both of those scenarios coming true.

 

Notice the word "both". The two things being referred to were 'Sale and Eovaldi not missing a start between them' and 'your flapping your arms and flying to the moon.'

 

Nowhere did I equate your flying to the moon with how well the Sox would finish with (or without) Betts and Price.

 

Please stop saying or implying that I said things I didn't say simply so you can attempt to discredit what I've said. What I say stands on its own.

[moonslav59]

Depending on what we get back in return, trading Betts & Price would (seemingly) all but end our 2020 chances. The idea would be to improve our chances in 2021 and beyond, including the idea that we might bring Betts back.

 

I remember people saying back in 2012, after we traded Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront & Miller, we had no chance in 2013.

 

Never say never.

[a700hitter]

Depending on what we get back in return, trading Betts & Price would (seemingly) all but end our 2020 chances. The idea would be to improve our chances in 2021 and beyond, including the idea that we might bring Betts back.

 

I remember people saying back in 2012, after we traded Lester, Lackey, Peavy, Doubront & Miller, we had no chance in 2013.

 

Never say never.

Those trades (of entirely unproductive or under productive players) were done before the end of 2012, and in the off-season, the Red Sox acquired Uehara, Victorino, Stephen Drew, Dempster and Napoli. Here it is already January. If we dump Betts (approaching his prime years) and Price (underproductive) at this juncture, there is no chance to bring in productive replacement parts, because there is nothing helpful left on the FA market. So, if we dump them from this point on, I will say "never" for 2020.

[notin]

It seems to me that a lot of big extensions are signed with one year to go on the contract.

 

The Sox did sign two last year, most notable was Bogaerts, which seemed unlikely as he is a Boras client. The Sale extension looked (and still looks) like there were too many concerns about the injury. Otherwise, why would a 29yo elite pitcher have signed a deal that short for that little? It seems to me DD took advantage of the situation to get Sale at a potential bargain price for a very short number of years, but with substantial risk...

[notin]

Those trades (of entirely unproductive or under productive players) were done before the end of 2012, and in the off-season, the Red Sox acquired Uehara, Victorino, Stephen Drew, Dempster and Napoli. Here it is already January. If we dump Betts (approaching his prime years) and Price (underproductive) at this juncture, there is no chance to bring in productive replacement parts, because there is nothing helpful left on the FA market. So, if we dump them from this point on, I will say "never" for 2020.

 

Actually, I would say replacing Price isn't necessarily that difficult. His 2.3 fWAR last year wasn't that much better than Ivan Nova (2.0 fWAR) or Jason Vargas (1.8 fWAR).

 

Betts is obviously another matter. The best option - and I cannot believe I am about to type this - is clearly the wild card known as Yasiel Puig. The dude can be an absolute monster and his super high batspeed uppercut swing from the right side could be devastating at Fenway. He also can actually field pretty well and has a superb arm. But - he also carries a significant and well-known downside in the form of being absolutely crazy. The question is - can the same fans who embraced other professional trouble-makers like Corey Dillon, Rodney Harrison and Randy Moss also embrace Puig? Or is he just too nuts and - to take a figurative cliche and interpret it literally - in a different league altogether?

[a700hitter]

Actually, I would say replacing Price isn't necessarily that difficult. His 2.3 fWAR last year wasn't that much better than Ivan Nova (2.0 fWAR) or Jason Vargas (1.8 fWAR).

 

Betts is obviously another matter. The best option - and I cannot believe I am about to type this - is clearly the wild card known as Yasiel Puig. The dude can be an absolute monster and his super high batspeed uppercut swing from the right side could be devastating at Fenway. He also can actually field pretty well and has a superb arm. But - he also carries a significant and well-known downside in the form of being absolutely crazy. The question is - can the same fans who embraced other professional trouble-makers like Corey Dillon, Rodney Harrison and Randy Moss also embrace Puig? Or is he just too nuts and - to take a figurative cliche and interpret it literally - in a different league altogether?

This is just more silliness. Replacing last year’s David Price ? We are hoping that he will be 2018 David Price in 2020. Vargas and other garbage you mentioned don’t even have that capability. Puig for Betts?

 

It couldn’t be any clearer. If we dump Betts and Price at this juncture, it signals a forfeit for 2020.