A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Two fair questions. However, in Boston's case a fair answer to both would be we have seen nothing to be able to say yes or no to either.

 

That answer basically sums up the past two months, and we really can't debate either point.... except for the millionth time: "if the starting pitchers who were all stars two years ago all heal and pitch again like All-Stars..."

 

In the meantime, all we have is nostalgia -- and I don't mean Owings or Gorkys.

[Bellhorn04]

Remember Reggie Jackson's HR was the difference in 78. We also forget Munson's Double off Stanley to score Rivers too, to make it 4-2.

Stanley killed us.

Remember final score was 5-4. If Dent's HR was the only thing we gave up, we would have won.

 

Poor Stanley. He was one of the goats in both the 78 playoff game and 86 Game 6.

[moonslav59]

The most important question entering 2020 is:

 

Is this team a title contender?

 

If the answer is no, then the next question is:

 

Are the Sox doing everything in their power to prepare their team to return to title contention?

 

Answering yes to one of these questions is enough for a fan to get behind. Two “no”s and you have a problem

 

The answer to the question, "Are we a title contender?" is not no. It is "probably not."

 

The team needs healthy returns of 3-4 key players, and expecting that might not be likely, but it is not a super long shot.

 

The second question is hard to objectify. Surely we haven't added any "WOW" players, yet, and on the surface it looks like losing Porcello & Moreland makes us worse (after losing Kimbrel & Kelly last winter), but along with the good players lost since our championship win less than 14 months ago, we've lost some pretty bad players. One could view their losses as "addition by subtraction," and even Porcello, Moreland, Kimbrel and Kelly were not outstanding in 2018 or 2019. (Kimbrel was for most of 2018, until he neatly blew up in November.) We also lost Pom, Holt, Pearce and others.

 

Players no longer on the team from 2018 (Listed by most PAs and IP in 2018)

 

PAs Player OPS 2018/2019 OPS (PA)

502 Nunez .677/.548 (177)

459 Moreland .758/.835 (335)

367 Holt .774/.771 (295)

288 Leon .511/.548 (191)

207 Swihart .613/.695 (29)

195 HRam .708/na

165 Pearce .901/.503 (99)

143 Kinsler .604/na

27 B Phillips .520/na

 

IP Pitcher ERA

191 Porcello 4.28/ 5.52 (174)

74 Pomeranz 6.08/na

66 Kelly 4.39/na

62 Kimbrel 2.74/na

54 Wright 2.68/8.53 (6)

24 Thornburg 5.63/7.71 (19)

17 Cuevas 7.41/na

 

Not here in 2018 or 2020:

54 Cashner 6.20

 

No or little role in 2018 but will in 2020:

Chavis

Workman

Walden

Taylor

DHern

Perez

Peraza

 

Players with a better outlook now than 2018:

EDevers

Rod

Vaz

 

It's not all doom and gloom, but certainly we need a bunch of this to go right for us to be strong contenders, and besides, the winter is not over, so question 2 is still open.

 

[notin]

I spent many decades working for USC. And since the Pats didn't exist when I was a kid growing up in Maine, I have never really rooted for them.

 

The play I was thinking of happened on the 1 yard line in the closing seconds of the Super Bowl. The game was watched and the play debated by a lot of people who didn’t follow the Pats...

[jad]

The play I was thinking of happened on the 1 yard line in the closing seconds of the Super Bowl. The game was watched and the play debated by a lot of people who didn’t follow the Pats...

 

I know. I was watching tthat play, and thought it was fantastic, in part because I knew it would lead to months and years of hysteria on the part of sports fans. (The USC call was also the right one. All you had to do for a national championship was to keep your opponent from marching down the field 60 yards with two minutes to go [actually, I'm just making that up, but it was roughly the case], or stopping Vince Young on 4th and goal from the 6 yard line when all 100,000 humans in the stadium knew he was going to try to run it in. ...) But ... I'm over it. Completely. I mean it. Seriously. Just like I'm over 1986 ... Never give it a moment's thought ...

[notin]

I know. I was watching tthat play, and thought it was fantastic, in part because I knew it would lead to months and years of hysteria on the part of sports fans. (The USC call was also the right one. All you had to do for a national championship was to keep your opponent from marching down the field 60 yards with two minutes to go [actually, I'm just making that up, but it was roughly the case], or stopping Vince Young on 4th and goal from the 6 yard line when all 100,000 humans in the stadium knew he was going to try to run it in. ...) But ... I'm over it. Completely. I mean it. Seriously. Just like I'm over 1986 ... Never give it a moment's thought ...

 

And while most of america was screaming "Run! Marshawn Lynch!" I get why Carroll called for the pass. One of the biggest factors was Belicheck NOT calling a timeout, so Carroll was obviously thinking "I get either a game-winning TD or the clock stops, something he did not get from a run.

 

But when the pass got intercepted, suddenly we all forgot that logic went out the door. I don't think Carroll made a horrible call (and later when I learned Lynch was like 1 for 7 from one yard line helped justify it), but Butler just made a great play..

[moonslav59]

MLBTR

 

Jose Peraza was almost a full win worse than replacement in 2019 (-0.9 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR), but the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $3MM deal anyhow. The reason being the Red Sox see a speedy player who can play five positions who proved his competence against left-handed pitching even in a down year, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. His .269 xBA in 2019 also points to some bad luck (he finished with an actual batting average of just .239). Overlaying his spray chart over the Fenway Park map also suggests Peraza might benefit from the dimensions in Boston. All in all, the Red Sox don’t have the financial freedom this offseason to add a sure-thing superstar, and in Peraza they see a player coming off a down year capable of reaching another gear with a fresh start in Boston. Now, with a couple days left to lock in our new year’s resolutions, let’s check in elsewhere in the American League…

[Bellhorn04]

MLBTR

 

Jose Peraza was almost a full win worse than replacement in 2019 (-0.9 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR), but the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $3MM deal anyhow. The reason being the Red Sox see a speedy player who can play five positions who proved his competence against left-handed pitching even in a down year, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. His .269 xBA in 2019 also points to some bad luck (he finished with an actual batting average of just .239). Overlaying his spray chart over the Fenway Park map also suggests Peraza might benefit from the dimensions in Boston. All in all, the Red Sox don’t have the financial freedom this offseason to add a sure-thing superstar, and in Peraza they see a player coming off a down year capable of reaching another gear with a fresh start in Boston. Now, with a couple days left to lock in our new year’s resolutions, let’s check in elsewhere in the American League…

 

If this doesn't get 700hitter and Elktonnick excited, I don't know what will!

[jacksonianmarch]

It should be pretty obvious by now that shedding payroll is offseason goal number 1 and winning has become secondary

[Elktonnick]

If this doesn't get 700hitter and Elktonnick excited, I don't know what will!

 

Yea " they see a player coming off a down year capable of reaching another gear " The other gear Moon is referring to is reverse.

[Tedballgame]

It should be pretty obvious by now that shedding payroll is offseason goal number 1 and winning has become secondary

I guess they will just sit around and look at all those World Series Championship trophies since 2004. 4-1.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nice cherry picking of timelines. 27-9. Still the hammer vs nail. And it’s gonna be a brutal year for you, so enjoy that

[notin]

Nice cherry picking of timelines. 27-9. Still the hammer vs nail. And it’s gonna be a brutal year for you, so enjoy that

 

 

It’s actually pretty sad that you have to keep brining up those titles from the 1920s and 30s, considering all the players are long dead.

 

I used to laugh at Bears’ fans, who desperately cling to the ‘85 Bears and their title. Yankee fans make them look less sad...

[harmony]

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier writes of the "short shell life" of a homegrown core:

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/12/28/taking-closer-look-baseball-unusual-offseason/e5gtbQLYtEN6aKacuPuHAP/story.html?event=event25

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s actually pretty sad that you have to keep brining up those titles from the 1920s and 30s, considering all the players are long dead.

 

I used to laugh at Bears’ fans, who desperately cling to the ‘85 Bears and their title. Yankee fans make them look less sad...

 

Push the time line back 8 years and it's 5-4. Push it back 20 years prior to that and its 7-4. How far back you wanna go?

[jacksonianmarch]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/quick-hits-shaw-red-sox-payroll-Guardians.html

 

Good update on the Sox financial status. Sox were in on Shaw, but couldn’t offer him anything until they moved salary. Bloom isn’t gonna do anything beyond MiLB deals until he moves someone

[notin]

Push the time line back 8 years and it's 5-4. Push it back 20 years prior to that and its 7-4. How far back you wanna go?

 

If you like living in the past, we’re ok with it. But going back to the Coolidge administration will get you pity...

[moonslav59]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/quick-hits-shaw-red-sox-payroll-Guardians.html

 

Good update on the Sox financial status. Sox were in on Shaw, but couldn’t offer him anything until they moved salary. Bloom isn’t gonna do anything beyond MiLB deals until he moves someone

 

Makes me think we must not have any firm deals lined up to dump salary.

[notin]

Makes me think we must not have any firm deals lined up to dump salary.

 

That’s why I think Betts is their best bet.

 

If you have to include $60mill to deal Price, it isn’t worth it. Replacing him will cost the remaining $11mill per year. Or more.

 

If you deal Betts, you might not have to pay anything down and might even get back a good (not great, like Betts) player or two back in return...

[jacksonianmarch]

Makes me think we must not have any firm deals lined up to dump salary.

 

That is what it sounds like

[harmony]

Makes me think we must not have any firm deals lined up to dump salary.

The Red Sox have probably exchanged firm offers with multiple teams without reaching a meeting of the minds.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

That’s why I think Betts is their best bet.

 

If you have to include $60mill to deal Price, it isn’t worth it. Replacing him will cost the remaining $11mill per year. Or more.

 

If you deal Betts, you might not have to pay anything down and might even get back a good (not great, like Betts) player or two back in return...

 

It makes too much sense, to me, to deal Price for a salary dump from another team that counts way less on the luxury tax than actual dollars owed. We discussed most of these already, but here are some that might fill a current void on our roster while saving us more lux tax money than actual money:

 

SDP

Myers $68.5M/3 ($13.8M x 3 LUX)

 

LAD

Pollock $51M/3 ($12M x 3 LUX)

 

TX

Odor $34M/3 ($8.2M x 3 LUX)

 

PHI

O Herrera $20.2M/2 ($6.1M x 2 LUX)

 

SFG

Posey $47.3/2 ($18.6M x 2 LUX)

Belt $34.4M/2 ($14.6M x 2 LUX)

Longoria $59M/3 ($11.2M x 3 LUX) Move Devers to 1B?

 

LAA

J Upton $74M/3 ($21.2M x 3 LUX)

 

Mets: maybe with Dominic Smith (arbs)+ Lowrie $1.5M less on LUX or Familia $1.6M less on LUX to balance the money?

 

 

I don't see this working out well:

 

SDP

Hosmer $99M/6($18M x 6 LUX)

[jacksonianmarch]

Steve Cishek would like to come home and sign with Boston (he’s from Falmouth). The Sox haven’t offered him a contract yet as their salary obligations haven’t been cleared.

 

Cishek has posted a sub 3 ERA 4 years running. He’d be a good addition and is begging to come on board.

[Bellhorn04]

Push the time line back 8 years and it's 5-4. Push it back 20 years prior to that and its 7-4. How far back you wanna go?

 

I think it's logical for Sox fans to go back to 2002, because that's when Henry bought the team and turned us around. And it's all been in the era of big money.

 

That said I certainly don't overlook the Yanks long history of dominance.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox have probably exchanged firm offers with multiple teams without reaching a meeting of the minds.

 

Or not.

 

Posts like this are worse than no posts at all.

 

Note: when you say 'probably', adding 'or not' is redundant.

[notin]

It makes too much sense, to me, to deal Price for a salary dump from another team that counts way less on the luxury tax than actual dollars owed. We discussed most of these already, but here are some that might fill a current void on our roster while saving us more lux tax money than actual money:

 

SDP

Myers $68.5M/3 ($13.8M x 3 LUX)

 

LAD

 

Pollock $51M/3 ($12M x 3 LUX)

 

TX

Odor $34M/3 ($8.2M x 3 LUX)

 

PHI

O Herrera $20.2M/2 ($6.1M x 2 LUX)

 

SFG

Posey $47.3/2 ($18.6M x 2 LUX)

Belt $34.4M/2 ($14.6M x 2 LUX)

Longoria $59M/3 ($11.2M x 3 LUX) Move Devers to 1B?

 

LAA

J Upton $74M/3 ($21.2M x 3 LUX)

 

Mets: maybe with Dominic Smith (arbs)+ Lowrie $1.5M less on LUX or Familia $1.6M less on LUX to balance the money?

 

 

I don't see this working out well:

 

SDP

Hosmer $99M/6($18M x 6 LUX)

 

But then you have to replace Price. So taking back $13-18mill isn’t necessarily enough. Price was worth 2.3 fWAR last year, so replacing him would cost roughly what Tanner Roark (2.0 fWAR) got - $12mill AAV. This means the cost of taking back, say, Myers only saves the Sox about $6mill towards the tax - and means we have to watch Myers suck for 3 years. The Sox could do better just trading Barnes for actual (potential?) contributors and make up about half of that....

[Bellhorn04]

At the moment it feels like they're stymied, like they're just not getting any acceptable offers. Are they really going to wait till spring training and hope another team loses a pitcher to injury so they can trade them Price?

[jacksonianmarch]

At the moment it feels like they're stymied, like they're just not getting any acceptable offers. Are they really going to wait till spring training and hope another team loses a pitcher to injury so they can trade them Price?

 

If this is the team that’s put out there, then they’re risking not resetting and sucking at the same time. Pen additions are absolutely a requirement.

 

You either rebuild and blow it up, reset and save some cash on re-signing Mookie, or you go for it and get a bullpen and try to win. Standing pat is just stupid

[jacksonianmarch]

At the moment it feels like they're stymied, like they're just not getting any acceptable offers. Are they really going to wait till spring training and hope another team loses a pitcher to injury so they can trade them Price?

 

Maybe they’re stymied from making a big acquisition, but my bet is they could get Cishek for less than $6 mil AAV. Also, if he’s driving the ship back to MA, you can probably get him on a 1 yr deal for $4 mil. This is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Cishek isn’t amazing, but he’s a good pitcher with closing experience who will help the beleaguered back of your pen. The idea that you cannot even offer a modest contract is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Cheap upgrades should always be welcome. I at least understood passing on Shaw since you’d got some 1b talent in the system with Chavis and Dalbec. You don’t have back end pen talent right now

[Bellhorn04]

If this is the team that’s put out there, then they’re risking not resetting and sucking at the same time. Pen additions are absolutely a requirement.

 

You either rebuild and blow it up, reset and save some cash on re-signing Mookie, or you go for it and get a bullpen and try to win. Standing pat is just stupid

 

But if they're getting lowball offers there's not much sense taking them.

 

Maybe Bloom is asking too much, if the rumor about asking prospects for Price is true.