A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

If he finds his fastball again (not likely) then he’s a hell of a low risk option.

[harmony]

If he finds his fastball again (not likely) then he’s a hell of a low risk option.

The Seattle Mariners should take a chance.

[notin]

We have plenty of those.

 

One

[jacksonianmarch]

The Seattle Mariners should take a chance.

 

They love Yankee farmhands, they probably will

[moonslav59]

One

 

soxprospects says two, but we can easily create a handful more.

 

Travis

Weber

Brewer

Lakins

Poyner

 

Or, we could cut Osich again.

 

[notin]

Why is Weber still there? Does he have something on Cora?

[moonslav59]

Why is Weber still there? Does he have something on Cora?

 

I can't remember who the poster was that was all gah-gah over Weber after one game.

 

But hey, we need someone we can DFA once we acquire a decent player or two.

[harmony]

I can't remember who the poster was that was all gah-gah over Weber after one game.

 

But hey, we need someone we can DFA once we acquire a decent player or two.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201905230.shtml

[Bellhorn04]

I can't remember who the poster was that was all gah-gah over Weber after one game.

 

bosoxmal

[moonslav59]

bosoxmal

 

Maybe we are keeping him out of respect for this great and long time Sox fan.

[Bellhorn04]

The sad thing is we had numerous guys who pitched WORSE than Weber did.

[moonslav59]

The sad thing is we had numerous guys who pitched WORSE than Weber did.

 

True, and some are gone or will see lesser roles in 2020.

[notin]

The sad thing is we had numerous guys who pitched WORSE than Weber did.

 

 

But how many are 30 or older and still here?

[Bellhorn04]

But how many are 30 or older and still here?

 

Weber's 29.

 

I honestly don't know what the depth chart looks like, but I expect we better be prepared for once again having multiple relievers who are mediocre at best.

[moonslav59]

Weber's 29.

 

I honestly don't know what the depth chart looks like, but I expect we better be prepared for once again having multiple relievers who are mediocre at best.

 

Weber will likely be gone due to his lack of options.

 

Here is how I see our depth chart- not counting any future deals:

 

Red= Out of Options

 

SP

Sale

ERod

Price

Eovaldi

Perez

Johnson

Velazquez

Weber

Houck

Hart

Reyes

McGrath

Sept? Mata/Ward/Diaz

 

RP

Workman

Barnes

D Hernandez

Taylor

Walden

Brasier

Hembree

Osich

Feltman

Brewer

Lakins

Poyner

Shawaryn

Bazardo

[jacksonianmarch]

Back to the original point of this post, realistic view of 2020. Lots has changed since the post was started.

 

1. The Sox have been given a “goal” (read as mandate) to get under the cap. This means that some names currently on the roster are gonna get dealt, and when dumping salary, the return in terms of now production isn’t going to be there. The benefit is in signing players or dealing for more expensive players, something they cannot do until well under the cap

 

2. They’ve already bid adieu to Porcello and Holt. They’ve replaced them with Perez and Peraza. We all can agree that this is a downgrade. They have done nothing to improve the pen as they have no resources (farm or money) to get an improvement.

 

3. They’re entering 2020 with far more injury questions than they had going into 2019. Eovaldi ended up converting to relief after elbow surgery and sucked. He’ll go back to the rotation. Price has wrist surgery and saw a velocity drop. He’s also 34. Sale’s velocity was down and he couldn’t make it to August.

 

4. The division is gonna be harder. The Yanks kept Gardner and Chapman. They went out and signed Cole. They’re the lead dogs by a mile. The Rays are young and have dealt off Pham and lost Garcia. But Renfroe is no joke and their top 3 of Snell, Glasgow and Chirinos is great as is their pen. If they’re healthy, they’re staying at 2. The Blue Jays have multiple second year talents and they just added Roark and Yamaguchi. They’re still gonna be 4 in the division, but they won’t lose 95 again. And the O’s still suck, so there’s that.

 

5. The AL is gonna be tougher. Rendon, Grandal and Roark are 3 NL names in the top 20 of FAs and they’re heading to the AL. The only top 20er to defect the AL is Didi and he’s easily replaced. Add in that the Angels are probably gonna be better, the Rangers are going for it, the White Sox are going for it and you’ve got a tougher AL. The only AL team that made a downgrade intentionally was the Guardians. Remains to be seen if they blow it up, which is possible.

 

These 5 reasons makes me wonder why some Sox fans are so adamant about going for it in 2020. The strong likelihood is the Sox are gonna be candidates for the WC2 maybe, but are likely headed for another down year. If you win 85 and miss the POs, it’s just as s***** as winning 70 and missing the POs but without the prime draft position. Hence, a lot of proposals I’ve seen here have been for major league talent, including the one I made (mostly because that’s the direction I foresee Bloom taking). But what if Bloom made a Betts for prospects deal? What if Bloom used the financial savings to keep Price and deal him with money for prospects in 2020. What if he then waited for Eovaldi to have a good stretch and found a taker for him? What do you care if the Sox blow it up and then build a farm if running the same retreads out there misses the POs again?

[notin]

Weber's 29.

 

I honestly don't know what the depth chart looks like, but I expect we better be prepared for once again having multiple relievers who are mediocre at best.

 

 

29 or 30 isn’t a huge difference.

 

We do have multiple relievers capable of being mediocre. Having a few capable of being better than that would be nice, but it’s not going to be possible until the Sox clear a lot of money...

[jacksonianmarch]

Now, if I was the Gm of the Sox, I offer these two teams a deal for Betts

 

Reds- India and Greene

Dodgers- Gray and Downs

[notin]

Back to the original point of this post, realistic view of 2020. Lots has changed since the post was started.

 

1. The Sox have been given a “goal” (read as mandate) to get under the cap. This means that some names currently on the roster are gonna get dealt, and when dumping salary, the return in terms of now production isn’t going to be there. The benefit is in signing players or dealing for more expensive players, something they cannot do until well under the cap

 

2. They’ve already bid adieu to Porcello and Holt. They’ve replaced them with Perez and Peraza. We all can agree that this is a downgrade. They have done nothing to improve the pen as they have no resources (farm or money) to get an improvement.

 

3. They’re entering 2020 with far more injury questions than they had going into 2019. Eovaldi ended up converting to relief after elbow surgery and sucked. He’ll go back to the rotation. Price has wrist surgery and saw a velocity drop. He’s also 34. Sale’s velocity was down and he couldn’t make it to August.

 

4. The division is gonna be harder. The Yanks kept Gardner and Chapman. They went out and signed Cole. They’re the lead dogs by a mile. The Rays are young and have dealt off Pham and lost Garcia. But Renfroe is no joke and their top 3 of Snell, Glasgow and Chirinos is great as is their pen. If they’re healthy, they’re staying at 2. The Blue Jays have multiple second year talents and they just added Roark and Yamaguchi. They’re still gonna be 4 in the division, but they won’t lose 95 again. And the O’s still suck, so there’s that.

 

5. The AL is gonna be tougher. Rendon, Grandal and Roark are 3 NL names in the top 20 of FAs and they’re heading to the AL. The only top 20er to defect the AL is Didi and he’s easily replaced. Add in that the Angels are probably gonna be better, the Rangers are going for it, the White Sox are going for it and you’ve got a tougher AL. The only AL team that made a downgrade intentionally was the Guardians. Remains to be seen if they blow it up, which is possible.

 

These 5 reasons makes me wonder why some Sox fans are so adamant about going for it in 2020. The strong likelihood is the Sox are gonna be candidates for the WC2 maybe, but are likely headed for another down year. If you win 85 and miss the POs, it’s just as s***** as winning 70 and missing the POs but without the prime draft position. Hence, a lot of proposals I’ve seen here have been for major league talent, including the one I made (mostly because that’s the direction I foresee Bloom taking). But what if Bloom made a Betts for prospects deal? What if Bloom used the financial savings to keep Price and deal him with money for prospects in 2020. What if he then waited for Eovaldi to have a good stretch and found a taker for him? What do you care if the Sox blow it up and then build a farm if running the same retreads out there misses the POs again?

 

 

Bloom turned Tampa into a successful team by trading for players like Glasnow and Zunino and signing García - players with good prospect pedigrees but little to no success in MLB, and also by implementing a new strategy for the rotation. He was likely brought in to find those type of hidden gems again and achieve some success to improve on that 85 win season. The foundation of this team isn’t bad at all, and while they had some injuries to the staff, those also might be surmountable.

 

Maybe Eovaldi does go to the pen? Really it was his bullpen work that was his biggest success in Boston.

 

Perez as well. Perez clearly fell apart due to overwork in Minnesota, but he is a former top prospect with a top tier cut fastball. Maybe the plan is to use someone (Darwinzon Hernandez?) as a two inning opener than follow up with Perez for 4 or 5 innings?

 

I don’t expect much for Price beyond salary relief. But if the Sox are painted into a “trade Mookie” corner, I prefer MLB talent coming back because most top prospects don’t become top Major Leaguers, and it’s tough to think of very many “star for prospects” trades that really did return a ton of MLB talent even in the long run. Bartolo Colon for Sizemore and Phillips might be the exception and not the rule, and even that deal was so long ago, all the “prospects” have retired. If you want to count Archer for Glasnow and Meadows, well what GM made that deal?

 

Jose Peraza doesn’t look like a great addition, but for all the positions he has played, the one he did field well was 2b. This actually does mean the Sox have some trade bait - as Chavis might be that much more expendable, along with Dalbec, who is definitely blocked at his best position. Either way, the Sox don’t need both and might not need either, although it is possible one or both move to the outfield.

[moonslav59]

Back to the original point of this post, realistic view of 2020. Lots has changed since the post was started.

 

A thoughtful post.

 

1. The Sox have been given a “goal” (read as mandate) to get under the cap. This means that some names currently on the roster are gonna get dealt, and when dumping salary, the return in terms of now production isn’t going to be there. The benefit is in signing players or dealing for more expensive players, something they cannot do until well under the cap.

 

Hopefully, the reset will allow us freer budget decisions for 2021 and beyond.

 

2. They’ve already bid adieu to Porcello and Holt. They’ve replaced them with Perez and Peraza. We all can agree that this is a downgrade. They have done nothing to improve the pen as they have no resources (farm or money) to get an improvement.

 

It may not be a downgrade from Porcello's 2019 numberss, but the IP'd will be hard to match.

3. They’re entering 2020 with far more injury questions than they had going into 2019. Eovaldi ended up converting to relief after elbow surgery and sucked. He’ll go back to the rotation. Price has wrist surgery and saw a velocity drop. He’s also 34. Sale’s velocity was down and he couldn’t make it to August.

Eovaldi was pitching at the end of the season. Sale says he fells fine. Price has missed time every year, so I'm not seeing much difference there.

 

4. The division is gonna be harder. The Yanks kept Gardner and Chapman. They went out and signed Cole. They’re the lead dogs by a mile. The Rays are young and have dealt off Pham and lost Garcia. But Renfroe is no joke and their top 3 of Snell, Glasgow and Chirinos is great as is their pen. If they’re healthy, they’re staying at 2. The Blue Jays have multiple second year talents and they just added Roark and Yamaguchi. They’re still gonna be 4 in the division, but they won’t lose 95 again. And the O’s still suck, so there’s that.

 

2020 will likely be a down year. Call it a cliff. Call it a rebuild/retool. Call it one last gasp at a last hurrah, assuming we don't deal away vets. I'm looking at setting ourselves up for 2021 and beyond. Anything we do in 2020 is gravy.

 

5. The AL is gonna be tougher. Rendon, Grandal and Roark are 3 NL names in the top 20 of FAs and they’re heading to the AL. The only top 20er to defect the AL is Didi and he’s easily replaced. Add in that the Angels are probably gonna be better, the Rangers are going for it, the White Sox are going for it and you’ve got a tougher AL. The only AL team that made a downgrade intentionally was the Guardians. Remains to be seen if they blow it up, which is possible.

 

Houston.

 

These 5 reasons makes me wonder why some Sox fans are so adamant about going for it in 2020. The strong likelihood is the Sox are gonna be candidates for the WC2 maybe, but are likely headed for another down year. If you win 85 and miss the POs, it’s just as s***** as winning 70 and missing the POs but without the prime draft position. Hence, a lot of proposals I’ve seen here have been for major league talent, including the one I made (mostly because that’s the direction I foresee Bloom taking). But what if Bloom made a Betts for prospects deal? What if Bloom used the financial savings to keep Price and deal him with money for prospects in 2020. What if he then waited for Eovaldi to have a good stretch and found a taker for him? What do you care if the Sox blow it up and then build a farm if running the same retreads out there misses the POs again?

 

I can see us dealing JBJ and waiting to July, in hopes some player values rise with a healthy start to 2020.

[moonslav59]

I don’t expect much for Price beyond salary relief. But if the Sox are painted into a “trade Mookie” corner, I prefer MLB talent coming back because most top prospects don’t become top Major Leaguers, and it’s tough to think of very many “star for prospects” trades that really did return a ton of MLB talent even in the long run. Bartolo Colon for Sizemore and Phillips might be the exception and not the rule, and even that deal was so long ago, all the “prospects” have retired. If you want to count Archer for Glasnow and Meadows, well what GM made that deal?

 

Bagwell for Anderson

 

Slocumb for VTek & Lowe

 

HRam & Anibal Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell

 

Those are just some Sox related trades that come to mind.

 

[notin]

 

Bagwell for Anderson

 

Slocumb for VTek & Lowe

 

HRam & Anibal Sanchez for Beckett & Lowell

 

Those are just some Sox related trades that come to mind.

 

 

Maybe I was not specific enough.

 

None of those trades involve dealing an established star for prospects. Maybe an argument can be made for the Beckett deal...

[oldtimer]

Back to the original point of this post, realistic view of 2020. Lots has changed since the post was started.

 

1. The Sox have been given a “goal” (read as mandate) to get under the cap. This means that some names currently on the roster are gonna get dealt, and when dumping salary, the return in terms of now production isn’t going to be there. The benefit is in signing players or dealing for more expensive players, something they cannot do until well under the cap

I also believe 2020 is the year of the reset. The Sox do however have some good young players as elements of a winning team so to my mind, we find a way to financially reset while keeping players who we will have around in 2021 and beyond and find beneficial trades for those who wont. I thinking JDM, Price, Eovaldi and others.

 

2. They’ve already bid adieu to Porcello and Holt. They’ve replaced them with Perez and Peraza. We all can agree that this is a downgrade. They have done nothing to improve the pen as they have no resources (farm or money) to get an improvement.

 

 

It is true the Sox have lost Porcello and Holt along with Sandy, so they are heading down the path of trading away or otherwise losing players who wouldn't be around in 2021 anyway. They need to stay with that thought. They will have more financial resources in 2021 and I don't believe that your characterization of the farm as having nothing is correct. Some of the existing players may well surprise and become solid major leaguers. Other teams with bloated payrolls may suffer the consequences of their high risk spending for 2021 just as the Sox have under Dombrowski, so the competition level may even out in 2021 and beyond.

 

3. They’re entering 2020 with far more injury questions than they had going into 2019. Eovaldi ended up converting to relief after elbow surgery and sucked. He’ll go back to the rotation. Price has wrist surgery and saw a velocity drop. He’s also 34. Sale’s velocity was down and he couldn’t make it to August.

 

I don't doubt the injury questions about three of our starters are correct. We should continue to try to trade at least one or even both of Price and Eovaldi as they are expensive reminders of the Dombroski approach to writing contracts and neither will likely help us in 2021. Better to find lower cost fill ins for 2020.

 

4. The division is gonna be harder. The Yanks kept Gardner and Chapman. They went out and signed Cole. They’re the lead dogs by a mile. The Rays are young and have dealt off Pham and lost Garcia. But Renfroe is no joke and their top 3 of Snell, Glasgow and Chirinos is great as is their pen. If they’re healthy, they’re staying at 2. The Blue Jays have multiple second year talents and they just added Roark and Yamaguchi. They’re still gonna be 4 in the division, but they won’t lose 95 again. And the O’s still suck, so there’s that.

 

No one will concede the pennant to the Yankees. It will be a long season and like last year, injuries can happen. Depending on Blooms moves, the Sox could be mid level competitive, which is all right with me, provided they are on a clear path of improvement toward 2021 and beyond. The new model for success might go away from the few highly paid stars with a weaker surrounding crew. The Rays by need may have shown the way to others with more resources to repeat their success while improving on it.

 

5. The AL is gonna be tougher. Rendon, Grandal and Roark are 3 NL names in the top 20 of FAs and they’re heading to the AL. The only top 20er to defect the AL is Didi and he’s easily replaced. Add in that the Angels are probably gonna be better, the Rangers are going for it, the White Sox are going for it and you’ve got a tougher AL. The only AL team that made a downgrade intentionally was the Guardians. Remains to be seen if they blow it up, which is possible.

Good year for a reset since winning it all will be fiercely competitive.

 

These 5 reasons makes me wonder why some Sox fans are so adamant about going for it in 2020. The strong likelihood is the Sox are gonna be candidates for the WC2 maybe, but are likely headed for another down year. If you win 85 and miss the POs, it’s just as s***** as winning 70 and missing the POs but without the prime draft position. Hence, a lot of proposals I’ve seen here have been for major league talent, including the one I made (mostly because that’s the direction I foresee Bloom taking). But what if Bloom made a Betts for prospects deal? What if Bloom used the financial savings to keep Price and deal him with money for prospects in 2020. What if he then waited for Eovaldi to have a good stretch and found a taker for him? What do you care if the Sox blow it up and then build a farm if running the same retreads out there misses the POs again?

 

Many other Sox fans have been advocating the 2020 reset for many months now. My own approach has been to reset while maintaining as much of a competitive balance as possible while ridding the team of its major encumberences but building upon players who can help them in 2021 and beyond. The fans and remaining good players deserve a management who at least tries to remain somewhat competitive while making moves that will bear fruit in future years. That includes getting good looks at current farm players who some here prefer to belittle.

 

[moonslav59]

Many other Sox fans have been advocating the 2020 reset for many months now. My own approach has been to reset while maintaining as much of a competitive balance as possible while ridding the team of its major encumberences but building upon players who can help them in 2021 and beyond. The fans and remaining good players deserve a management who at least tries to remain somewhat competitive while making moves that will bear fruit in future years. That includes getting good looks at current farm players who some here prefer to belittle.

 

 

I'm fine with this idea, but I wonder how much trying to stay competitive in 2020 might hamper our ability to be better in 2021 and beyond. It's a delicate balance and there is no easy solution to some of the choices being considered.

[moonslav59]

Budget Update (source: cots)

 

Total projected for 2020 (counting arbs): $226.6M

 

Tax Limit: $208M

 

Amount Over Limit: $18.6M

 

Top Contracts in $ millions (AVV cost for luxury tax purposes):

31.0 Price (3 yrs)

~27.5 Betts (last arb)

25.6 Sale (5 yrs + option)

22.0 Martinez (Opt out or 3 yrs)

20.0 Bogaerts (6 yrs + opt)

17.0 Eovaldi (3 yrs)

13.8 Pedroia (2 yrs)

~11.5 Bradley (last arb)

~9.0 Rodriguez (3rd of 4 arbs)

6.5 Perez (1 yr + opt)

4.5 Vazquez (2 yrs + opt)

~4.3 Benintendi (1st of 3 arbs)

~3.3 Workman (last arb)

~3.0 Barnes (2nd of 3 arbs)

2.9 Peraza (2nd of 3 arbs)

~1.5 Hembree (2nd of 3 arbs)

 

 

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The pessimism on this forum -- as well as the impudent optimism of a fan of a decade-long also-ran -- is understandable, since human emotions always tend to overestimate the latest outcomes.

 

Going back to the title of this thread, what is truly more realistic: a team repeating mediocrity after one down-year hangover from its best season in franchise history, or a team returning to contention with the same basic core of star players just entering their primes who have recently won three straight division crowns?

 

The Red Sox regulars are veteran professionals who are very good at what they do for a living and they haven't forgotten how to win. Some may be past their primes, but some have yet to reach their peak performances.

 

Remember the confidence most Sox fans and employees had entering the 2019 season. It was a less than a year ago. We all know the brass has to make a few changes for a reason. But there may also be another reason they're not making many changes...

Edited December 19, 2019 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[jad]

The pessimism on this forum -- as well as the impudent optimism of a fan of a decade-long also-ran -- is understandable, since human emotions always tend to overestimate the latest outcomes.

 

Going back to the title of this thread, what is truly more realistic: a team repeating mediocrity after one down-year hangover from its best season in franchise history, or a team returning to contention with the same basic core of star players just entering their primes who have recently won three straight division crowns?

 

The Red Sox regulars are veteran professionals who are very good at what they do for a living and they haven't forgotten how to win. Some may be past their primes, but some have yet to reach their peak performances.

 

Remember the confidence most Sox fans and employees had entering the 2019 season. It was a less than a year ago. We all know the brass has to make a few changes for a reason. But there may also be another reason they're not making many changes...

 

Hey, introducing reason or rationality on a sports board is a clear violation of all rules, conventions, and standards of decency! Just stop!

[kenmeister]

The pessimism on this forum -- as well as the impudent optimism of a fan of a decade-long also-ran -- is understandable, since human emotions always tend to overestimate the latest outcomes.

 

Going back to the title of this thread, what is truly more realistic: a team repeating mediocrity after one down-year hangover from its best season in franchise history, or a team returning to contention with the same basic core of star players just entering their primes who have recently won three straight division crowns?

 

The Red Sox regulars are veteran professionals who are very good at what they do for a living and they haven't forgotten how to win. Some may be past their primes, but some have yet to reach their peak performances.

 

Remember the confidence most Sox fans and employees had entering the 2019 season. It was a less than a year ago. We all know the brass has to make a few changes for a reason. But there may also be another reason they're not making many changes...

 

I haven't shaken the feeling that only ERod starts are must-watch tv. I feel like I should make one of those "change my mind" memes.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm fine with this idea, but I wonder how much trying to stay competitive in 2020 might hamper our ability to be better in 2021 and beyond. It's a delicate balance and there is no easy solution to some of the choices being considered.

 

THIS!

 

It is really difficult to team build from the middle, especially if you have no money to spend and no farm system to start with

[moonslav59]

THIS!

 

It is really difficult to team build from the middle, especially if you have no money to spend and no farm system to start with

 

You know, I said this exact thing after the selloff in 2012.

 

I thought we played it halfway, or "build from the middle" as you put it, yet we won it all in 2013.

 

I do think trading for young ML players is a better plan than trading for prospects, but we have to get the finances in order, first. How well we pull that off can make or break a quick rebuild.