A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don’t think Bloom will be trading too many prospects...,

 

Good to read; I couldn't sleep last night worrying about Noah Song.

[Bellhorn04]

Trading prospects is always one big roll of the dice. A lot of guys' worth peaks before they ever play one game in the majors. It's like the game show: would you rather keep the cash or find out what's behind the curtain? In baseball card context, would you rather have an autographed Clemente or an unopened pack with the longshot chance of finding a Mantle rookie?.

 

So true. Yankee fans bemoan the (alleged) fact that they could have gotten Cole from the Pirates prior to the 2018 season, but Cashman balked because the Bucs wanted Chance Adams and Clint Frazier.

[notin]

So true. Yankee fans bemoan the (alleged) fact that they could have gotten Cole from the Pirates prior to the 2018 season, but Cashman balked because the Bucs wanted Chance Adams and Clint Frazier.

 

I always heard the name “Gleyber Torres” in those rumors...

[Bellhorn04]

The trade simulator says he's worth $50M, while he's getting paid about $28M.

 

I get the low risk- 1 year number, but the number represents a net plus $50M, meaning they think he's really worth about $78M in 2020.

 

That number is certainly debatable, but if he's worth anywhere near that in 2020, one has to think he'd be worth a lot in 2021, 2022 and 2023. He'd likely be worth more than $33M a year in 2024, 2025 & 2026. He might be worth near $33M in 2027 and maybe 2028. He may be worth less in 2028, 2029 and 2030.

 

All of that is based on best case scenario, of course.

 

I hope Mookie has a long, healthy career, but anything can happen in this game.

 

It doesn't even have to be a disaster-type injury that derails a man's career. Sometimes it can be the so-called 'nagging' injuries that do it.

[notin]

Good to read; I couldn't sleep last night worrying about Noah Song.

 

I don’t think too many teams are intrigued by Noah Song just yet. He wasn’t the 137th overall pick because of the excessive demand...

[Bellhorn04]

I always heard the name “Gleyber Torres” in those rumors...

 

I might be getting this mixed up with the trade for Verlander?

[notin]

I might be getting this mixed up with the trade for Verlander?

 

Maybe.

 

Verlander also had that outrageous contract at the time...

[moonslav59]

I understand why low-paid youngsters with star potential are sought-after. But an established player about to enter his prime has to have more value to GMs trying to boost contending teams to the next level. Any trade is based on speculation, of what could be vs. what will be, with the goal to improve and at least get what you pay for.

 

Baseball is a business, and building a winner is costly. But proven commodities have to be more attractive to a GM whose club can afford to pay for quality. For example, to a team looking for a Gold Glove finalist catcher who can hit, a veteran like Vazquez has to have more value than a teenage power-hitter like Casas who hasn't even made it to Double A.

 

According to the list, Devers is worth 2.5 times on the trade market than Betts. Devers, 23, has had one great year. Betts is 27 and has six good to great years. Young studs like Devers, Soto, Acuna, Torres, etc. may have generational potential, but they still have half a decade to stay clean, stay in shape, and produce before matching Mookie’s output so far (and when most boy millionaires are out at late night parties, how many will be wearing hoodies, trying not to be noticed, while feeding the homeless?).

 

If you're the GM of the Red Sox and you could actually acquire two and half more Mookies, wouldn't you rather trade Rafie?

 

Betts has one year of team control: Devers has 4, including 1 more pre-arb!

 

No way I trade Ra-fay!

[moonslav59]

Trading prospects is always one big roll of the dice. A lot of guys' worth peaks before they ever play one game in the majors. It's like the game show: would you rather keep the cash or find out what's behind the curtain? In baseball card context, would you rather have an autographed Clemente or an unopened pack with the longshot chance of finding a Mantle rookie?

 

In hindsight, who wouldn't have swapped Swihart for Hammels? For the record, I was totally against trading our number one pitching prospect for Pomeranz, but Espinoza never got out of A ball and hasn't played in three years. I was happy to deal Hanley for Beckett and glad we got Sale for Moncada instead of Benintendi.

 

Control can be overrated, too. After signing Sandoval, Boston "controlled" the Panda for five more years (or was it the other way around?).

 

I'd trade Beni for Moncada in a heartbeat.

[notin]

Betts has one year of team control: Devers has 4, including 1 more pre-arb!

 

No way I trade Ra-fay!

 

Not even for Fernando Tatis Jr.?

[notin]

I'd trade Beni for Moncada in a heartbeat.

 

Now yes. But not really the same. When Sale came on board, Benintendi was the bigger need and better fit...

[moonslav59]

Not even for Fernando Tatis Jr.?

 

Hmmm...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Now yes. But not really the same. When Sale came on board, Benintendi was the bigger need and better fit...

 

Agreed. If I had to pick which was the better bet to have a productive career longterm, it was Beni. Moncada had better tools than just about anyone, but also had to face the usual cultural adjustments and transitions that sometimes hinder development. I admit I was turned off by his expensive car collection with the custom YM hood ornaments, but realize those are spoils of suddenly striking it rich as a teenager. Of course, Mookie showed up in a shiny blue Corvette this year, and that didn't appear to affect his game...

[Tedballgame]

Not even for Fernando Tatis Jr.?

Nope.

[jacksonianmarch]

I always heard the name “Gleyber Torres” in those rumors...

 

No, you heard the name Andujar. Yanks wanted to deal Adams, Frazier and another pitcher. The Pirates required Andujar or Torres then they picked a shitbag package from the Pirates, lol. Adams turned into a dud due to injuries. Frazier hasn’t gotten the chance

[jacksonianmarch]

Btw, this “Hot Stove” has been a f***in snooze fest thus far

[notin]

... which is the new normal.

 

MLB needs to have some of NFL Style Black Friday Shopping Spree for free agency...

[moonslav59]

At least there's college football to watch while we wait for some fresh, hot stove news.

[cp176]

I'd trade Beni for Moncada in a heartbeat.

 

Athletically Imo there remains 0 question as to who the better athlete is was and will be going forward - Moncada. I have said that since the day I saw them standing side by side. it was more about a positional thing i think. it would be a bit of a joke to say that Beni was comparable athletically to Moncada. NO WAY. Did we trade the right guy at that time? Of course we did.

[moonslav59]

Athletically Imo there remains 0 question as to who the better athlete is was and will be going forward - Moncada. I have said that since the day I saw them standing side by side. it was more about a positional thing i think. it would be a bit of a joke to say that Beni was comparable athletically to Moncada. NO WAY. Did we trade the right guy at that time? Of course we did.

 

I'm not sure it was even a choice, at the time.

 

We needed Beni for the "window."

 

It's interesting to see that Moncada + Kopech have a "trade value" of over $150M. One wonders what sort of numbers these two will put up, but I loved the trade, and still do. After all, we got...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale!

 

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Not sure how you can love the trade for 2020, but it got you a title and that flag will fly forever. It was a win win for both sides

[jacksonianmarch]

Where Bloom has made his hay over the past few seasons has been on his “other” signings and trades. His pickups like Ji Man as a non notable deal. Bloom has signed under the radar players or made deals for PTNBL or cash for guys who then played a key role for TB.

 

He has also been in favor of proximity instead of star potential in his deals. You don’t see him dealing off a big league asset for a top 100 guy in A ball. He’d get a few guys who may not be nationally recognized who are in AAA or already on a big league roster. His philosophy seems to be spreading the wealth rather than focusing on a single long distance prospect. If he got 3 guys who contributed on a big league roster than that’s better than hoping for one guy to hit it big. As I’ve said before, when/if he deals Betts, you guys are gonna hate the return the moment the deal is made, but you’ll likely enjoy the result

[S5Dewey]

In reading and hearing what I see and hear about Bloom vs. Dombrowski it appears that Bloom is the anti-DD. Bloom eschews big flashy signings of star players in favor of signing diamonds in the rough. Bloom tries to build a team made of "team players" while DD signs impact players. It seems that neither of those approaches is a good long term solution since Bloom has never won a WSC and DD leaves weakend farm systems behind when he leaves town.

 

1) Would the Sox have won the WS without star player Mookie Betts? IMO they wouldn't have.'

2) Why have the A's not won a WSC even with the alleged best player in baseball?

 

A team needs both stars and a supporting cast and one can't overrate the importance of that quality starting cast. .Bloom has shown the ability to develop the starting cast. Now is he willing to shell out the big bucks - or prospects - to get the star(s) necessary to get the team over the top?

[Bellhorn04]

I suspect that the Red Sox are hoping that Bloom can follow in the footsteps of the previous Rays wunderkind, Andrew Friedman, who has been doing a great job for the wealthy Dodgers.

[jacksonianmarch]

I suspect that the Red Sox are hoping that Bloom can follow in the footsteps of the previous Rays wunderkind, Andrew Friedman, who has been doing a great job for the wealthy Dodgers.

 

A major reason for that has been the continued overdelivering farm system. You create a sustainable farm and a lot of your ills either in expenditure or depth are mitigated. Bloom and Friedman are very big on depth. The Rays and Dodgers were two of the three deepest teams in baseball last year. It seems the Dodgers bring up player after player who perform off the rip and end up successful major leaguers

[moonslav59]

Not sure how you can love the trade for 2020, but it got you a title and that flag will fly forever. It was a win win for both sides

 

The extension was not part of the trade. I still love the trade, now, because we won a ring.

 

Sure, I wish we still had Moncada & Kopech, but a ring is a ring.

[notin]

I suspect that the Red Sox are hoping that Bloom can follow in the footsteps of the previous Rays wunderkind, Andrew Friedman, who has been doing a great job for the wealthy Dodgers.

 

I doubt we’re the next Rays. “Next Dodgers” seems like a likelier goal...

[moonslav59]

I doubt we’re the next Rays. “Next Dodgers” seems like a likelier goal...

 

I agree, but I hope, unlike the Dodgers, we win ring.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree, but I hope, unlike the Dodgers, we win ring.

 

If hiring Bloom got you two World Series trips in 3 years, you take your chances you’d win one. Heck, if the Astros didn’t cheat, maybe they would have

[harmony]

One website’s ranking of farm systems in terms of trade value:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/ranking-each-farm-system-by-trade-value/