A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

Dude, did you forget to take your meds?

 

Desperate Dave burned all of Rome to get us that ring.

 

We are literally in the same position now, that we were in, in 1918. The only real difference is that it only took 86 years to dig out of that hole.

 

At worst, we suck for a couple years, get some better picks, reset the tax, get more international bonus pool money and get the farm back into good shape in 2 years. Add to that any young players or prospects we get via winter or summer trades of FAs to be, and cliff may be just 1-3 years NOt 86 years.

 

If we try to stay semi-competitive while rebuilding, it may be more problematic, but even that is doable.

 

BTW, while I think DD went too far, specifically the Kimbrel & Pom trades (and the Thornburg & Kinsler deals in hinsight), I don't think he burned Rome to the ground. We kept Devers, Beni, DHern and a few others.

 

He left a few structures standing.

 

[Slasher9]

JH is the best owner in all of sports. He won’t let us go 10 years without a parade never mind 86....

[moonslav59]

JH is the best owner in all of sports. He won’t let us go 10 years without a parade never mind 86....

 

I'm thinking 6 years- tops.

 

More likely 4-5.

[Bellhorn04]

Dude, did you forget to take your meds?

 

Desperate Dave burned all of Rome to get us that ring.

 

We are literally in the same position now, that we were in, in 1918. The only real difference is that it only took 86 years to dig out of that hole.

 

Ludicrous Larry.

[Bellhorn04]

Don't know at this point. But its not looking good for a soft landing.

 

Oh Danny Boy was on the radio this morning. Much as we hate to admit it, he had DD's demise called right. He now says that the Sox will likely stay in house for DD's replacement after all. His logic:

1) Henry is vowing to take a firmer hand in the day to day (that can't blow a new Pres Baseball Ops dress up)

2) the next DD is just being set up to fail anyway. Team strangling on the various Starter contracts that have blown up

3) likely the next DD has to trade Mookie ( won't endear him or her to fans)

4) barren farm

5) NESN took a whopping -23% hit in ratings, 3rd biggest hit in ML baseball and wayyyyy higher than the general league average of -1%.

6) Boston is not the glorified place to be a Pres of Baseball Ops that it used to be or that we the fans still perceive that it is

7) relating to #6, too much turnover in the job, too much and too often

 

Dangerous Dan made all these points in his article in yesterday's column in the Globe as well.

[kenmeister]

There is a bright side you know. What if Sale, Price, and Eovaldi are all effective next year? It is definitely within the realm of possibility. Now we'd have 4 effective starters to go along with our dynamite offense. Then we'd just need a couple relievers to step things up to join Workman and we'd be a contending team.

[Bellhorn04]

There is a bright side you know. What if Sale, Price, and Eovaldi are all effective next year? It is definitely within the realm of possibility.

 

Quite honestly I'd settle for 2 out of 3.

[Slasher9]

Quite honestly I'd settle for 2 out of 3.

 

fortnite was down for a couple days with just a black screen saying "thanks for all the years of support". my first thought was we will have Price for the entire season next year! unfortunately it was subterfuge for a re-launch of new season and it's back up and running.....

[notin]

Yes, and I am on record as not being happy with Mookie going for the most money.

 

Same thing as with Harper.

 

Eh.

 

I get it.

 

I’ve left jobs solely to get more money...

[Bellhorn04]

fortnite was down for a couple days with just a black screen saying "thanks for all the years of support". my first thought was we will have Price for the entire season next year! unfortunately it was subterfuge for a re-launch of new season and it's back up and running.....

 

The crazy thing is, it wouldn't surprise me at all if some of Price's issues really were caused by that.

[moonslav59]

Quite honestly I'd settle for 2 out of 3.

 

2 out of 3 at top form would make us contenders.

 

We may wait to the deadline before deciding to trade pieces.

 

[kenmeister]

2 out of 3 at top form would make us contenders.

 

We may wait to the deadline before deciding to trade pieces.

 

 

Well, I suppose that depends upon who our 5th starter is too. I'm in favor of bringing Porcello back. I think they'll fix the problems with the baseball and he'll be able to have a proper grip and execute his pitches.

[moonslav59]

Well, I suppose that depends upon who our 5th starter is too. I'm in favor of bringing Porcello back. I think they'll fix the problems with the baseball and he'll be able to have a proper grip and execute his pitches.

 

We'd be a contender with a mix at 5th starter if 2 out of Sale, Price & Eovaldi are at "top form," because I'm assuming ERod will be the same. That would be 3 solid starters. That's all you need to compete.

 

We'd have made the playoffs, this year, if 2 had done as hoped for.

 

[jung]

Dangerous Dan made all these points in his article in yesterday's column in the Globe as well.

 

Yea this is not the format for me to discuss it but I dropped the Globe only because I simply could not justify taking it just for what was still one of the best Sports Sections in the Country. Decided I could take my sports news other ways and cry in my beer about the lost columns.

 

Take the NYT's, WSJ and one statewide local paper that is syndicated in with the nations Conservative writers and that is about what I can stand. Switch off WAPO with NYT's occasionally.

[notin]

Dangerous Dan made all these points in his article in yesterday's column in the Globe as well.

 

Too muich turnover in President of Baseball Ops? We've had 2 of them in the past 19 years...

[jung]

Too muich turnover in President of Baseball Ops? We've had 2 of them in the past 19 years...

 

You are forgetting that Henry turned the GM job into what amounts to an administrative posting. Head of Baseball Ops now does what used to be the GM's job. So in reality, its Theo, Cherries and DD.

 

Its the most recent history that is at issue. Cherries got tossed relatively quickly and DD has been tossed quickly as well. I don't think the speed of their departures would stick out above the grass line as much as they do if not for having won recent WS Championships before being ousted.

[Nick]

Does MLB allow sign and trade? Specifically, can the Sox allow a potential trading partner to discuss extension with Betts and come to an agreement as condition of trade?

 

Thus Sox would receive greater value in trade?

 

Say Dodgers are able to convince Betts to a 10 year, $400M contract. Sox get three or 4 major league ready players in return. Dodgers after all now owns Betts for 10+1 years.

Edited October 17, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I'm thinking that if the Dodgers would pay $400M x 10 for Betts, they wouldn't want to give up talent in trade, too. Just sign him the next winter.

[Bellhorn04]

Does MLB allow sign and trade? Specifically, can the Sox allow a potential trading partner to discuss extension with Betts and come to an agreement as condition of trade?

 

I think there have been some trades where the acquiring team was given a time window to negotiate an extension. The window was 48 hours I think?

[notin]

Does MLB allow sign and trade? Specifically, can the Sox allow a potential trading partner to discuss extension with Betts and come to an agreement as condition of trade?

 

 

 

Yes.

 

In most cases, the window is 72 hours...

[notin]

I'm thinking that if the Dodgers would pay $400M x 10 for Betts, they wouldn't want to give up talent in trade, too. Just sign him the next winter.

 

The Dodgers are repeatedly knocking on the door but can't seem to get that elusive title. Do they want to wait and hope Kershaw is good for two more years or strike now? They traded for a half season of Machado despite knowing he was not going to sign. At least a trade for Betts in the offseason gets them a draft pick.

 

If Betts is traded, I would say the Dodgers, along with the Phillies and Braves, are one of the most likely landing spots. The Mets, Reds, and Padres are probably not unrealisitic either.

[notin]

You are forgetting that Henry turned the GM job into what amounts to an administrative posting. Head of Baseball Ops now does what used to be the GM's job. So in reality, its Theo, Cherries and DD.

 

Its the most recent history that is at issue. Cherries got tossed relatively quickly and DD has been tossed quickly as well. I don't think the speed of their departures would stick out above the grass line as much as they do if not for having won recent WS Championships before being ousted.

 

 

That really didn't happen until Dombrowski came along. Don't forget - Dombrowski didn't replace Cherington; he replaced Lucchino.

 

In fact, in Dombrowski's first full year, he had a GM in the oft-forgotten (at least by me) Mike Hazen...

[Bellhorn04]

That really didn't happen until Dombrowski came along. Don't forget - Dombrowski didn't replace Cherington; he replaced Lucchino.

 

Most people just look at it as DD replacing Ben as de facto decision maker - rightly so, I would say.

[notin]

Most people just look at it as DD replacing Ben as de facto decision maker - rightly so, I would say.

 

But he had a higher role than that. He replaced Lucchino and took a significant chunk of the GM dutues from Hazen.

 

Either way, the consolidation of the President of Baseball Ops and GM into one role started with him, not Epstein...

[kenmeister]

We'd be a contender with a mix at 5th starter if 2 out of Sale, Price & Eovaldi are at "top form," because I'm assuming ERod will be the same. That would be 3 solid starters. That's all you need to compete.

 

We'd have made the playoffs, this year, if 2 had done as hoped for.

 

 

I'm the most worried about Chris Sale. He doesn't seem able to overcome his physical woes. David Price I'm "cautiously optimistic" that he'll recover. Hopefully he's doing the proper exercises this offseason. Eovaldi at least was able to finish the season pitching, so I'm the most hopeful he will have an excellent 2020.

[moonslav59]

I'm the most worried about Chris Sale. He doesn't seem able to overcome his physical woes. David Price I'm "cautiously optimistic" that he'll recover. Hopefully he's doing the proper exercises this offseason. Eovaldi at least was able to finish the season pitching, so I'm the most hopeful he will have an excellent 2020.

 

I think this year's injury to Sale was different from last's. I'm not sure, if that's good or bad.

 

If he needs surgery, let's get it over with, now, so he'll be back that much sooner. Who knows?

 

Price? He pitched 7 innings one- in the middle of APRIL! Then, they restricted his innings and pitches. Something happened, yet no surgery. Who knows?

 

Eovaldi did end the year pitching, and maybe Sale or Price would have, too, had we been in the race, but he didn't look anywhere near like the October 2018 Eovaldi. Who knows?

 

We have 3 big question marks. Probably, the odds are 1-2 do well in 2020. If it's two, we might be in contention. If it's one, likely not. If it's all 3, we may win it all, assuming no big drop-offs from others.

[Kimmi]

Yes, anything can happen, and our 4 rings in 10 playoff appearances , including 4 for 4 in the WS, makes it seem like the odds are actually better than they actually are.

 

People sometimes point to our 2004 championship as a wild card team, but that year, we had the 2nd best AL record and 3rd best in MLB. We were a top contender that year.

 

We had the best record in MLB in 2007. That was no crap shoot.

 

Many feel the 2013 season was a fluke, but we had the best record that year, too.

 

The 2018 season was far from a crap shoot.

 

We've had some really good teams that, to me, were a big step up from being called just a "playoff contender."

 

While I agree with you that DD went too far, and we may disagree on the degree of that, I can totally see why GMs go that extra mile to greatly improve their chances and hedge against injuries and/or too many down years from our players.

 

DD got us a ring. I can't really fault him too much for going the extra mile, and I was accepting of the projected consequences for the most part.

 

 

I don't think that you can greatly improve your chances in the playoffs. In any short series, there is too much randomness for that to happen. Truth of the matter is that there is not that big of a difference between the best and the worst playoff team in terms of % likelihood of winning it all.

 

Going overboard might greatly improve your chances of making it to the postseason. IMO, going overboard is not worth it when you already have a playoff contending team.

[Kimmi]

There is a bright side you know. What if Sale, Price, and Eovaldi are all effective next year? It is definitely within the realm of possibility. Now we'd have 4 effective starters to go along with our dynamite offense. Then we'd just need a couple relievers to step things up to join Workman and we'd be a contending team.

 

That's what I'm talking about. We still have all the pieces in place to be a serious contender next year. For that reason, I can't see Henry blowing it up, even a little bit. To be, the 2020 offseason seems more realistic for the reset and the impending cliff.

[Kimmi]

Quite honestly I'd settle for 2 out of 3.

 

2 out of 3 ain't bad.

[Kimmi]

Eh.

 

I get it.

 

I’ve left jobs solely to get more money...

 

It depends on the job and where it is.

 

I would probably not leave a job that I am happy and comfortable with, while uprooting my family, for more money, especially if I were already going to make more money than I'd ever need.

 

With these baseball players, it's an ego thing.