A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

It depends on the job and where it is.

 

I would probably not leave a job that I am happy and comfortable with, while uprooting my family, for more money, especially if I were already going to make more money than I'd ever need.

 

With these baseball players, it's an ego thing.

 

Anda professional comparison thing.

 

If you think you're a better player than a guy making $6 million, you're not as likely to sign for $5million...

[Kimmi]

Anda professional comparison thing.

 

If you think you're a better player than a guy making $6 million, you're not as likely to sign for $5million...

 

Yes, and I think that goes along with the ego thing.

 

I do understand that you don't want to be insulted with a lowball offer, but I also think that there are things more important than earning the most money that you can.

[S5Dewey]

Yes, and I think that goes along with the ego thing.

 

I do understand that you don't want to be insulted with a lowball offer, but I also think that there are things more important than earning the most money that you can.

 

I agree, and there are a few players who have left money on the table to play in a particular city as well as retiring and leaving money behind. It's called "principles". I have a lot of respect for people like that. Unfortunately they're few and far between.

[kenmeister]

I think this year's injury to Sale was different from last's. I'm not sure, if that's good or bad.

 

If he needs surgery, let's get it over with, now, so he'll be back that much sooner. Who knows?

 

Price? He pitched 7 innings one- in the middle of APRIL! Then, they restricted his innings and pitches. Something happened, yet no surgery. Who knows?

 

Eovaldi did end the year pitching, and maybe Sale or Price would have, too, had we been in the race, but he didn't look anywhere near like the October 2018 Eovaldi. Who knows?

 

We have 3 big question marks. Probably, the odds are 1-2 do well in 2020. If it's two, we might be in contention. If it's one, likely not. If it's all 3, we may win it all, assuming no big drop-offs from others.

 

I didn't realize Sale's injury was different than last year's, or that Price was intentionally restricted. Agreed, all big question marks. Hence pitchers like Porcello, Arroyo, and Lester who always make their starts are so valuable in my opinion.

[moonslav59]

I didn't realize Sale's injury was different than last year's, or that Price was intentionally restricted. Agreed, all big question marks. Hence pitchers like Porcello, Arroyo, and Lester who always make their starts are so valuable in my opinion.

 

Well Sale and Price made all their starts, until they didn't.

 

Here are Sale's games started totals since 2012:

29

30

26

31

32

32

27

25 (2019)

 

Price since 2010:

31

34

31

27

34

32

35

16

30

22 (2019)

 

Starts from 2010 to 2016 (7 seasons):

224 Price

210 Porcello

(Sale 207 in his previous 7 seasons before 2019)

 

2010-2018 (9 seasons):

276 Porcello

265 Price

That's about one more start per year.

 

Porcello is now reaching the age where Price began to miss starts.

Edited October 18, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I'm glad we won't have to hear from ego-bloated Yankee fans all 2020 on how we should rebuild to greatness.

 

(Actually, we still will, but at least it may not sound as obnoxious.)

[S5Dewey]

I'm glad we won't have to hear from ego-bloated Yankee fans all 2020 on how we should rebuild to greatness.

 

(Actually, we still will, but at least it may not sound as obnoxious.)

 

Do you have...er...ah...anyone in particular .... in mind?

[moonslav59]

Do you have...er...ah...anyone in particular .... in mind?

 

Yes, and I actually respect the guy, but he has this notion that the only way to rebuild is by using the failed Yankee model.

 

(Maybe, it's intentional.)

[kenmeister]

Porcello is now reaching the age where Price began to miss starts.

 

Okay I see your point. Which brings us back to "don't give contracts to pitchers over 30..." I think the Sox need to ride out these 3 contracts. Even if they traded Mookie Betts for 2 young E-Rod like starters, they wouldn't play instead of Sale/Price/Eovaldi given the money and seniority those guys have.

[moonslav59]

Okay I see your point. Which brings us back to "don't give contracts to pitchers over 30..." I think the Sox need to ride out these 3 contracts. Even if they traded Mookie Betts for 2 young E-Rod like starters, they wouldn't play instead of Sale/Price/Eovaldi given the money and seniority those guys have.

 

I'm okay with one year deals, but I'm just not part of the Porcello love fest going on. Innings are great but not at a 5.50 ERA.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm okay with one year deals, but I'm just not part of the Porcello love fest going on. Innings are great but not at a 5.50 ERA.

 

I'm a little surprised you're staying so focused on his 2019 ERA.

[Nick]

Yes, and I actually respect the guy, but he has this notion that the only way to rebuild is by using the failed Yankee model.

 

(Maybe, it's intentional.)

 

Bottom line is their starting pitching is not good enough to win the World Series (now they may still do it but it will be with their bats).

 

They can rack of runs but in a short series against stellar pitching (ie not AL East starters of 2019) they need better starting pitching performance.

 

Now what for the Yankees? Their younger players will require more money every year going forward.

 

Yankees are right at the threshhold (208M) when you add in arbitration estimates for 2020. This does not include Encarnacion for whom the Yankees hold club option for 2020.

 

Judge and Sanchez in their 1st year of arbitration. It will only get worse. Stanton seems unable to stay on the field, they have him for 8 MORE YEARS.

 

How long is their window of opportunity?

Edited October 18, 2019 by Nick

[S5Dewey]

Yes, and I actually respect the guy, but he has this notion that the only way to rebuild is by using the failed Yankee model.

 

(Maybe, it's intentional.)

 

But haven't you heard? They Yankees way is always the best way.

[notin]

I'm a little surprised you're staying so focused on his 2019 ERA.

 

Focusing on one year is why the Sox no longer have Wade Miley...

[Bellhorn04]

Bottom line is their starting pitching is not good enough to win the World Series (now they may still do it but it will be with their bats).

 

They can rack of runs but in a short series against stellar pitching (ie not AL East starters of 2019) they need better starting pitching performance.

 

Now what for the Yankees? Their younger players will require more money every year going forward.

 

Yankees are right at the threshhold (208M) when you add in arbitration estimates for 2020. This does not include Encarnacion for whom the Yankees hold club option for 2020.

 

Judge and Sanchez in their 1st year of arbitration. It will only get worse. Stanton seems unable to stay on the field, they have him for 8 MORE YEARS.

 

How long is their window of opportunity?

 

Every team has a very limited window of opportunity now.

[moonslav59]

I'm a little surprised you're staying so focused on his 2019 ERA.

 

As he moves past prime, I don't expect improvement. True, the 5.50 ERA in 2019 might not be his new norm, but the 4.65 ERA in 2017 and 4.92 in 2015 are also clues that he is in decline.

 

Even his even years have shown decline from 3.15 in 2016 to 4.23 in 2018. His WHIP has been over 1.36 in 3 of his last 5 seasons- the odd years.

 

I don't usually hold one bad year against anyone, so you are right to call me out on that, but the age thing worries me.

[moonslav59]

Bottom line is their starting pitching is not good enough to win the World Series (now they may still do it but it will be with their bats).

 

They can rack of runs but in a short series against stellar pitching (ie not AL East starters of 2019) they need better starting pitching performance.

 

Now what for the Yankees? Their younger players will require more money every year going forward.

 

Yankees are right at the threshhold (208M) when you add in arbitration estimates for 2020. This does not include Encarnacion for whom the Yankees hold club option for 2020.

 

Judge and Sanchez in their 1st year of arbitration. It will only get worse. Stanton seems unable to stay on the field, they have him for 8 MORE YEARS.

 

How long is their window of opportunity?

 

If the Yanks chose to spend and maybe go over the 2nd or 3rd threshold, they can probably keep the window open 2-3 more years, but I'm not sure they will revert to their old spending ways.

[jacksonianmarch]

I referenced our situation on the Yankees side. If we retain Chapman, we will have about $40 mil to play with before hitting the final threshold. The good thing about our cap situation is that significant money falls off after 2020, so we can probably spend more even with our arb guys getting expensive

[Nick]

I referenced our situation on the Yankees side. If we retain Chapman, we will have about $40 mil to play with before hitting the final threshold. The good thing about our cap situation is that significant money falls off after 2020, so we can probably spend more even with our arb guys getting expensive

 

I think the Yankee stadium is built for JD's game. I would hate to see him as a Yankee.

[notin]

I referenced our situation on the Yankees side. If we retain Chapman, we will have about $40 mil to play with before hitting the final threshold. The good thing about our cap situation is that significant money falls off after 2020, so we can probably spend more even with our arb guys getting expensive

 

The Yankees also have to make a decision on Edwin Encarnacion. His $20mill salary for 2020 might look a little daunting, but he is on the books for $5mill if he isn't retained. So is he a worthwhile investment at $15mill? That's basically Andrew McCutchen/Mickey Brantley type money there...

[notin]

I think the Yankee stadium is built for JD's game. I would hate to see him as a Yankee.

 

The Yankees are an unlikely landing spot for Martinez, as they would have to pay the parting gift of $5mill to Encarnacion first. So if they pay a $17mill AAV to Martinez, it costs them $22mill total. The Red Sox would be able to top that offer and still save AAV money...

[moonslav59]

I referenced our situation on the Yankees side. If we retain Chapman, we will have about $40 mil to play with before hitting the final threshold. The good thing about our cap situation is that significant money falls off after 2020, so we can probably spend more even with our arb guys getting expensive

 

You are correct, but a lot of the contracts you lose after 2020 are among your best players, and it may cost more to replace them, in kind.

 

$22.1M Tanaka - you're second best SP'er

$21.8M Ellsbury- good riddance!

$12M LeMahieu- you're MVP, this year

 

+$20M Encarnacion option ($5M buyout)

+ $17M JA Happ vesting option (165+ IP or 27+ GS'd)

[jacksonianmarch]

So, couple things.

 

EE’s $5 mil buyout is being paid by the Rays. While he’s worth $15 mil, he’s not worth that for us. He’s gonna get bought out and it’ll cost us nothing.

 

After 2020, we have 5 highly paid guys coming off the roster with only two I’d like to retain. Lemahieu is underpaid and I’d like him back. Tanaka is overpaid and I’d like him back. Happ and Ellsbury have literally no worth to the 2020 team. Paxton may be internally replaced. And with Happ missing time, his option won’t vest. My bet is Tanaka and Lemahieu cost about the same with the overpaid part of Tanaka going to Lemahieu. Paxton goes off and gets overpaid elsewhere. Happ and Ellsbury retire. That frees up $51 mil with about half of it going to arbitration raises. It would allow us to make another big addition for 2021.

[jacksonianmarch]

Stanton is the only real long term signing. Hicks and Severino are the longest contracts beyond Stanton. And honestly, I do wonder if Stanton absolutely murders the baseball next year if he takes a little haircut and goes elsewhere using his opt out. It unlikely, but possible if Stanton goes all 59 homer again

[moonslav59]

So, couple things.

 

EE’s $5 mil buyout is being paid by the Rays. While he’s worth $15 mil, he’s not worth that for us. He’s gonna get bought out and it’ll cost us nothing.

 

After 2020, we have 5 highly paid guys coming off the roster with only two I’d like to retain. Lemahieu is underpaid and I’d like him back. Tanaka is overpaid and I’d like him back. Happ and Ellsbury have literally no worth to the 2020 team. Paxton may be internally replaced. And with Happ missing time, his option won’t vest. My bet is Tanaka and Lemahieu cost about the same with the overpaid part of Tanaka going to Lemahieu. Paxton goes off and gets overpaid elsewhere. Happ and Ellsbury retire. That frees up $51 mil with about half of it going to arbitration raises. It would allow us to make another big addition for 2021.

 

Tanaka will probably cost close to, if not more than $22M.

 

I thought you loved Paxton.

[moonslav59]

Stanton is the only real long term signing. Hicks and Severino are the longest contracts beyond Stanton. And honestly, I do wonder if Stanton absolutely murders the baseball next year if he takes a little haircut and goes elsewhere using his opt out. It unlikely, but possible if Stanton goes all 59 homer again

 

I wanted the Sox to get Stanton, and I think you are right. (I hope you are wrong.)

 

He's a beast, when healthy.

[Bellhorn04]

I wanted the Sox to get Stanton, and I think you are right. (I hope you are wrong.)

 

He's a beast, when healthy.

 

But his health is very much in question.

 

In 2018 he was able to play the outfield less than half the time.

 

This year he was a writeoff.

[moonslav59]

But his health is very much in question.

 

In 2018 he was able to play the outfield less than half the time.

 

This year he was a writeoff.

 

He doesn't have a career ending health issue, so I don't think being healthy is a long shot, but he does seem to have some Jacoby in him.

[notin]

So, couple things.

 

EE’s $5 mil buyout is being paid by the Rays. While he’s worth $15 mil, he’s not worth that for us. He’s gonna get bought out and it’ll cost us nothing.

 

.

 

I'm not so sure how this works.

 

The Rays paid $5mill to Seattle at the time of the original non-Yankee deal Whether that money went to the buyout of Encarnacion is immaterial; it's already changed hands, right? After all, if Encarnacion's option was exercised and the Yankees kept him, the Rays would not get the money back, right?

 

My understanding is, when cash is included in a deal, we as fans say Team A is paying th salary of the player. But in reality, the money is fungible and the cash is simply transferred. For example, if Encarnacion decided to retire mid-season for whateer reason, it's not like anyone gets a pro-rated amount of cash back...

[kenmeister]

but he does seem to have some Jacoby in him.

 

I laugh out loud every time someone uses his name as an adjective or verb. I loved him as a Red Sox, but it seems joining the Yankees didn't endear him to anyone.