A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[moonslav59]

I have to laugh at the owners being scared off by the self imposed " luxury " tax . All these guys know is luxury. The owner of the downtrodden Kansas City Royals is looking to sell the team for One Billion . Far , far more than he paid for it . These guys are raking it in . One can only imagine the money John Henry takes in from the Red Sox , Fenway Park and NESN .

 

He also pays more payroll budget and way more luxury tax than anyone else. He' double, triple and more over several teams.

 

Can he spend way more? Sure.

 

But, who am I to tell him to up his spending after what he's already done?

[notin]

I have to laugh at the owners being scared off by the self imposed " luxury " tax . All these guys know is luxury. The owner of the downtrodden Kansas City Royals is looking to sell the team for One Billion . Far , far more than he paid for it . These guys are raking it in . One can only imagine the money John Henry takes in from the Red Sox , Fenway Park and NESN .

 

And yet teams are.

 

That's why the Sox deadline and offseason were so boring...

[notin]

He also pays more payroll budget and way more luxury tax than anyone else. He' double, triple and more over several teams.

 

Can he spend way more? Sure.

 

But, who am I to tell him to up his spending after what he's already done?

 

Frankly, if 10 or 15 other GMs can build a competitive team for well under $200mill, why is capping spending at $243mill supposed to be such a handicap to Dombrowski?

[Bellhorn04]

Frankly, if 10 or 15 other GMs can build a competitive team for well under $200mill, why is capping spending at $243mill supposed to be such a handicap to Dombrowski?

 

Who says it is?

[kenmeister]

Frankly, if 10 or 15 other GMs can build a competitive team for well under $200mill, why is capping spending at $243mill supposed to be such a handicap to Dombrowski?

 

Clearly we've all learned now that free agent contracts & extensions to players over 30 rarely pays off. For every Jon Lester or Max Scherzer, there's a dozen aging players like - yes, Sale, Price, & Pedroia - who can't possibly live up to the value of those contracts. This leaves big spenders in a bind, as players rarely become free agents much earlier than that, thus the importance of the farm system.

[moonslav59]

Frankly, if 10 or 15 other GMs can build a competitive team for well under $200mill, why is capping spending at $243mill supposed to be such a handicap to Dombrowski?

 

It shouldn't be, but when you just about totally empty your farm, and 5 guys take up enough budget space to get you half way to the limit, one can understand the bind he's in.

 

The budget was not all his doing, but he has had a big hand in it's current state.

[notin]

Who says it is?

 

Anyone insisting Pedroia is tarnishing his legacy by not retiring and walking away, for one...

[Bellhorn04]

Anyone insisting Pedroia is tarnishing his legacy by not retiring and walking away, for one...

 

Yeah, some folks get a little greedy.

[notin]

It shouldn't be, but when you just about totally empty your farm, and 5 guys take up enough budget space to get you half way to the limit, one can understand the bind he's in.

 

The budget was not all his doing, but he has had a big hand in it's current state.

 

Well, the empty farm is also his doing. Well spent, but certainly his doing...

[moonslav59]

Well, the empty farm is also his doing. Well spent, but certainly his doing...

 

True. I think he went too far, but he got a ring, so I'm fine with where we're at.

 

I just want to get back quickly.

[notin]

True. I think he went too far, but he got a ring, so I'm fine with where we're at.

 

I just want to get back quickly.

 

It might help if Jay Groome could brush his teeth without tearing a tendon...

[moonslav59]

It might help if Jay Groome could brush his teeth without tearing a tendon...

 

Even if he was healthy, our farm would still suck.

[S5Dewey]

I don't think the Sox can afford a prolonged rebuild. They have too many high-priced contracts as it is. And with Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi and Vazquez all with the team for the next 3 years, they do have a solid foundation. All they need with Mookie is to decide to pay him. And despite his "off year," Betts is all but irreplaceable. If you think Bradley's Gold glove defense and .730 OPS is going to be tough to replace, what about Mookie's Gold Glove defense and .900 OPS?

 

I also don't think the Sox need Bradley more than he needs them. Not sure where that is coming from. The only differences between Bradley and Kevin Pillar are 30 points in OPS and $3mill in salary. And Pillar was acquired for a failed former top prospect and a career borderline middle reliever. Replacing Bradley with a cheaper version is one of the few types of players they can afford.

 

The Sox might keep Bradley, but it actually doesn't make much sense if they want to reset and try to sign Mookie. Betts is a generational talent and potential Hall of Famer. Bradley is a glove-first ninth spot hitter with the occasional hot streak. You don't build around the latter...

 

I agree that if anyone on the Sox is irreplaceable it's certainly Mookie. I wish it were Sale and Price but it's not. Unfortunately Mookie is holding all the cards here and it's looking more and more like whatever he does the Sox are screwed. If he bolts for someplace else the FO is going to be charged with trying to replace someone who's irreplaceable. If he stays the Sox are going to tie up so much money in him that they won't be able to afford to fill in around him. Choose your poison, as they say.

 

I say that Sox need JBJ more than he needs the Sox because I believe that whatever happens to him he's going to be playing for ~10M next year. Someone is going to want that glove and be willing to hit him down in the order. He doesn't need them. OTOH if he leaves the Sox are going to be facing the possibility of losing the best 2/3 of this great outfield and 2/3 is TWICE 1/3 and it's a huge hole.

 

IMO they need to decide what they're going to do about Mookie and make him a generous offer. Sign him quickly if he accepts it, sign JBJ and resign themselves to Mookie's leaving if he doesn't. As I keep saying, dickin' around with this thing is a recipe for having two new outfielders next year - something I don't want to see.

[S5Dewey]

If we lose Betts, IMO, it won't matter who else we keep. JBJ won't make a difference as we will be in rebuild mode, unless we've already reset after this year and use Betts' money to get 2-3 decent players, and they all work out.

 

Oh, I don't foresee that at all. JH & the FO are going to want to keep packin' the fannies in the seats so they're going to want to keep as many 'core players' as possible. That's Vaz, Devers, XBo and JBJ. Maybe Beni. Some of Mookie's money can go toward JBJ's $10M (that's only a $1.5M raise) and the other ~$30M (!) they would have paid Mookie can go toward his replacement.

 

[Holy sweet God. I just looked up Trout's salary. Is he really making $36M EACH YEAR??] (that's rhetorical, btw)

[notin]

I say that Sox need JBJ more than he needs the Sox because I believe that whatever happens to him he's going to be playing for ~10M next year. Someone is going to want that glove and be willing to hit him down in the order. He doesn't need them. OTOH if he leaves the Sox are going to be facing the possibility of losing the best 2/3 of this great outfield and 2/3 is TWICE 1/3 and it's a huge hole.

 

 

I would be extremely surprised if anyone gave JBJ a contract with an AAV of $10mill. AJ Pollock, who is a better all around player, only got a $12mill AAV one year ago...

[Carpin]

Oh, I don't foresee that at all. JH & the FO are going to want to keep packin' the fannies in the seats so they're going to want to keep as many 'core players' as possible. That's Vaz, Devers, XBo and JBJ. Maybe Beni. Some of Mookie's money can go toward JBJ's $10M (that's only a $1.5M raise) and the other ~$30M (!) they would have paid Mookie can go toward his replacement.

 

[Holy sweet God. I just looked up Trout's salary. Is he really making $36M EACH YEAR??] (that's rhetorical, btw)

 

He might be the only player to ever deserve that salary

[Elktonnick]

perhaps...but in New England...

Baseball >>>>>>>>>Football/Hockey/Basketball > Soccer/shooting animals

 

I don't want to quibble but since the advent of the Patriots and Tom Brady it has been noted that pro football especially the Patriots has eclipsed the number one status of the Red Sox in the hearts of New Englanders as much as we may wish to deny it. Admittedly this is especially hard for me because I am not a big football fan nor do I watch the NHL or the NBA. The sad fact is baseball is losing its fanatics to other sports. I see this in my 11 grandsons of whom only two play or follow baseball to any degree.

 

This BTW isn't purely an academic discussion especially to an owner like John Henry who I certainly agree is without a doubt the best current owner in baseball and is generally recognized as such by many sportswriters. This competition for both the affection of local fans and continued willingness to pay some of the highest ticket prices in baseball is why Henry is unlikely to ever rebuild as some might suggest but rather will opt for a strategy of reloading. He knows that the Red Sox must field a competitive team every year. It isn't just the Yankees that he worries about. It is the Patriots and Bruins as well

[Nick]

It shouldn't be, but when you just about totally empty your farm, and 5 guys take up enough budget space to get you half way to the limit, one can understand the bind he's in.

 

The budget was not all his doing, but he has had a big hand in it's current state.

 

We talk constantly about 'emptying out the farm'. Who have we lost really? Can the traded players start for us? You don't think for Sale giving up Kopech and Moncada was a bad trade? Is it now a bad trade because of Sale's new contract? That's not the trade's fault.

 

Have you looked at what our roster would look like with the players traded away?

 

Look at DD's trade for Kimbrel. To date, have we given up much on that trade?

Edited August 30, 2019 by Nick

[notin]

We talk constantly about 'emptying out the farm'. Who have we lost really? Can the traded players start for us? You don't think for Sale giving up Kopech and Moncada was a bad trade? Is it now a bad trade because of Sale's new contract? That's not the trade's fault.

 

Have you looked at what our roster would look like with the players traded away?

 

Look at DD's trade for Kimbrel. To date, have we given up much on that trade?

 

So are you saying that because we got Sale and Kimbrel, Dombrowski didn’t empty the farm?

 

Things worked out for 2018. But are you saying the Sox couldn’t use:

 

1) Moncada over Brock Holt?

2) Logan Allen over Brian Johnson?

3) Manny Margot at minimum wage over Jackie Bradley at $10-12mill in 2020?

4) Michael Kopech to replace Rick Porcello? Or in the bullpen next season?

 

It’s ok to be happy with how 2018 turned out, and it’s ok to say the trades were worth it. But why do people keep insisting the Sox didn’t give up anyone good? The only player included in the deal for Kimbrel or the one for Sale whose had his 25th birthday is Carlos Asuaje, who was a throw-in at best...

[Bellhorn04]

So are you saying that because we got Sale and Kimbrel, Dombrowski didn’t empty the farm?

 

Things worked out for 2018. But are you saying the Sox couldn’t use:

 

1) Moncada over Brock Holt?

2) Logan Allen over Brian Johnson?

3) Manny Margot at minimum wage over Jackie Bradley at $10-12mill in 2020?

4) Michael Kopech to replace Rick Porcello? Or in the bullpen next season?

 

It’s ok to be happy with how 2018 turned out, and it’s ok to say the trades were worth it. But why do people keep insisting the Sox didn’t give up anyone good? The only player included in the deal for Kimbrel or the one for Sale whose had his 25th birthday is Carlos Asuaje, who was a throw-in at best...

 

Your point is valid but I think Nick's point is valid too.

 

In the short term, i.e. to the end of 2019, the only losses of any significance in terms of major league production are Moncada (3.0 bWAR) and Margot (1.8 bWAR).

 

That excludes Travis Shaw, who had fine seasons in 2017 and 2018 before a disastrous 2019.

 

It'll be interesting to re-evaluate in the years to come...

[moonslav59]

We talk constantly about 'emptying out the farm'. Who have we lost really? Can the traded players start for us? You don't think for Sale giving up Kopech and Moncada was a bad trade? Is it now a bad trade because of Sale's new contract? That's not the trade's fault.

 

Have you looked at what our roster would look like with the players traded away?

 

Look at DD's trade for Kimbrel. To date, have we given up much on that trade?

 

1) I said "About" totally emptying our farm. We did not totally empty it.

 

2) I was never against trading some or even much of the farm for players under team control for 3+ years at a relatively low cost.

 

3) I was against the Kimbrel trade, despite expecting greatness for CK. I thought we gave up a lot and CK was being paid near top dollar at the time.

 

Again, the trades worked, and I'm fine with the results. I like what DD did. He brought us ring, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with everything he did or does.

 

We are paying the price, now, but again, I'm fine with what happened and what is about to happen, because I know these are the dues we pay for the ring.

 

To me, it's not all about what the players have done once traded away, and anyways many are years from their prime,so a comp now is fruitless.

 

As for the CK trade, I'd love to have Margot and Logan, right now. We'd save millions off the JBJ contract and have Logan to fill Porcello's slot for next to free.

 

We'd maybe not have the 2019 ring, though, so I'm not complaining. Really, I'm not. I'm just accepting the results of the trade that was made for a win now choice. We won. It worked. Now, we pay for it.

 

I bought a house. I love it. I paid a price for it. I could have used that money for a lot of fun- both then and in the future, but I have no regrets.

 

(BTW, we just paid off our 30 year mortgage in 11 years!)

[Bellhorn04]

As for the CK trade, I'd love to have Margot and Logan, right now. We'd save millions off the JBJ contract and have Logan to fill Porcello's slot for next to free.

 

Logan Allen *might* be a solid major league starter in 2020 but it's not really a lock.

[moonslav59]

Logan Allen *might* be a solid major league starter in 2020 but it's not really a lock.

 

True, but I like his chances more than DHern, Wright, Johnson & Velazquez combined.

[notin]

Your point is valid but I think Nick's point is valid too.

 

In the short term, i.e. to the end of 2019, the only losses of any significance in terms of major league production are Moncada (3.0 bWAR) and Margot (1.8 bWAR).

 

That excludes Travis Shaw, who had fine seasons in 2017 and 2018 before a disastrous 2019.

 

It'll be interesting to re-evaluate in the years to come...

 

It's like people want to stop all the talk about emptying the farm. It really isa big deal. you can be happy about the results of 2018 and how those trades factored in, but that doesn't mean you have to rationalize that the Sox didn't give up anything. It's not even true none of those players would be starting for the Sox this year. In no version of reality is Brock Holt superior to Yoan Moncada or Brian Johnson better than Logan Allen.

 

The real issue was the Sox traded away long term potential for short term success. It worked as well as it could in 2018, but the short term success also now appears to have been even shorter than originally hoped for, and one year later the Sox have reached a point where they could use some serious help from the farm...

[notin]

Logan Allen *might* be a solid major league starter in 2020 but it's not really a lock.

 

I will call it a lock that he is better than Brian Johnson or any other internal option the Sox have for 2020...

[jacksonianmarch]

We talk constantly about 'emptying out the farm'. Who have we lost really? Can the traded players start for us? You don't think for Sale giving up Kopech and Moncada was a bad trade? Is it now a bad trade because of Sale's new contract? That's not the trade's fault.

 

Have you looked at what our roster would look like with the players traded away?

 

Look at DD's trade for Kimbrel. To date, have we given up much on that trade?

 

It’s more than just what you traded away.

 

Moncada is turning into a franchise infielder

Kopech is going to return next year from TJS and had looked like a monster before that

Dubon just got a starting job and has torn up the minors

Logan Allen was a top 100 prospect coming into the year

Margot is a capable defender who just started hitting again

 

Those five guys would be useful, but that’s only part of DD’s rape and pillage of your farm. His drafts have been universally panned. His IFA signings have, for the most part, not been impactful. And for the rest of the talent there his team isn’t developing well.

 

There’s steps to developing a farm

 

Identifying talent

Drafting or signing talent

Developing talent

Keeping talent/graduating to the majors

 

DD has failed on all levels of farm management

[Bellhorn04]

It's like people want to stop all the talk about emptying the farm. It really isa big deal. you can be happy about the results of 2018 and how those trades factored in, but that doesn't mean you have to rationalize that the Sox didn't give up anything. It's not even true none of those players would be starting for the Sox this year. In no version of reality is Brock Holt superior to Yoan Moncada or Brian Johnson better than Logan Allen.

 

I don't think anyone said none of those players would be starting for the Sox this year.

 

Obviously Moncada would be.

 

Saying that Logan Allen is better than Brian Johnson ain't saying much, of course...

 

I'm not saying that the losses won't be turn out to be significant. No one can say that at this point. But it is fair to say that the losses are largely potential ones, not realized ones.

[notin]

I don't think anyone said none of those players would be starting for the Sox this year.

 

Obviously Moncada would be.

 

Saying that Logan Allen is better than Brian Johnson ain't saying much, of course...

 

I'm not saying that the losses won't be turn out to be significant. No one can say that at this point. But it is fair to say that the losses are largely potential ones, not realized ones.

 

 

 

Did you read Nick's post?

 

"We talk constantly about 'emptying out the farm'. Who have we lost really? Can the traded players start for us? You don't think for Sale giving up Kopech and Moncada was a bad trade? Is it now a bad trade because of Sale's new contract? That's not the trade's fault.

 

Have you looked at what our roster would look like with the players traded away?"

[Bellhorn04]

Did you read Nick's post?

 

"We talk constantly about 'emptying out the farm'. Who have we lost really? Can the traded players start for us? You don't think for Sale giving up Kopech and Moncada was a bad trade? Is it now a bad trade because of Sale's new contract? That's not the trade's fault.

 

Have you looked at what our roster would look like with the players traded away?"

 

Technically, Nick was just asking, not making a statement.

 

Anyway, our Yankee fan friend just did a better job burying DD LOL.

 

Bring on Eddie Romero!

[notin]

Technically, Nick was just asking, not making a statement.

 

Anyway, our Yankee fan friend just did a better job burying DD LOL.

 

Bring on Eddie Romero!

 

 

I think DD has run his course...