A Realistic View at 2020: Part I

[notin]

JBj is the greatest defensive CFer on the planet. Laureano would play LF for the Red Sox when Beni needs a blow....

 

Maybe Laureano comes from another planet. It actually makes sense. Humans can’t throw like that...

[moonslav59]

Major Leagues? How many at bats does Dalbec have in the Majors? Your comparing Double AA and Triple AAA, to the Majors?

 

Yup, and we know how often Chavis K's in the bigs. It's about the same as you projected Dalbec would get.

 

(It wasn't me who projected Dalbec's ML K rate.)

[moonslav59]

john henry is the greatest owner in new england sports history and its not even close.

 

No doubt.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, since he is not a pitcher, Dombrowski will make a move for the recently-released Scooter Gennett. Scooter is having a horrible season after missing the first 3 months, but in 2017-18, he did have an .859OPS with 50 HRs. He is a free agent after 2019, but whoever signs him for the remainder of the season would get an inside track to re-signing him. He might even want a one year value rebuilder...

 

We won't sign him to enough to put us over the max line.

[notin]

We won't sign him to enough to put us over the max line.

 

This year he’d cost a pro-rated league minimum. Next year is another matter....

[moonslav59]

This year he’d cost a pro-rated league minimum. Next year is another matter....

 

So, if anybody who "signs him" pays just the minimum, it's kind of up to him where he goes, among those who want him.

[S5Dewey]

JBJ is an excellent CFer. However he isn't the greatest defensive centerfielder. In fact he isn't even the best defensive centerfielder in the division. Kevin Kiermaier has better defensive metrics.

 

Oh, well then, if he has better defensive metrics that settles it.

[S5Dewey]

No doubt.

 

If I'm starting a Mt. Rushmore of owners Bob Kraft is right there beside John Henry.

[S5Dewey]

They also rave about Kevin Pillar, Kevin Kiermeier, Byron Buxton, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, and most of all, Ramon Laureano. In fact, I don't think any CF gets or deserves more raves than Laureano, who is a game changer out there.

 

I've even heard broadcasters rave about Adam Engel on defense, though I'm not sure why. He looks kind of meh to me. I mean, he's OK out there. But not rave-worthy...

 

Really? You've seen enough different teams with all those players play on different days with different announcers to know that they all "rave" about all of those guys???

[Elktonnick]

Oh, well then, if he has better defensive metrics that settles it.

 

We see JBJ every day so Sox fans tend to over rate JBJ compared to Keirmeier but whenever the Sox play the Rays even the NESN announcers recognize Keirmeier's prowess. Keirmeier has two gold gloves. He didn't play last year due to injury and not the full year in 2017 but that year he came in second place in Defensive Runs Saved at center field with 22, a career low, and short only of the Minnesota Twins' Byron Buxton, whom led with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, even though Kiermaier played in over 300 less innings than Buxton. When healthy he clearly is not only the better defender than JBJ he has the better more accurate arm and is better at the plate.

[Bellhorn04]

Also if you Google 'Kevin Kiermaier catches' or 'Byron Buxton catches' you will find plenty of clips of their best grabs (as you will with JBJ catches).

[Elktonnick]

john henry is the greatest owner in new england sports history and its not even close.

 

John Henry has his place but we old timers remember Walter A Brown who not only was the original owner of the Boston Celtics and one of the founders of the NBA but saved the Boston Bruins which he bought in 1951. As great Henry is, he can't match Walter Brown's contributions to two great Boston professional franchises nor his contribution to the Boston marathon. Brown is in both the Basketball and Hockey Halls of Fame. The Celtics won 6 world titles in 7 years before his death at a very young 59 in 1964.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Elktonnick

[notin]

Really? You've seen enough different teams with all those players play on different days with different announcers to know that they all "rave" about all of those guys???

 

Yes, especially Buxton, Cain, Hamilton and, for some reason, Engel.

 

I live in Chicago, so I see plenty of AL and NL Central teams. (FYI some of them also love Harrison Bader.) Last year I saw Kiermeier and Buxton at Comiskey/US Cellular/Guaranteed Rate Field in person.

 

As for Laureano, go to YouTube and make the call for yourself. Like this one

 

And bear in mind that throw had no cutoff man and I don’t think it even bounced. And there are other clips. The dude is amazing.

 

But the big question is - why are you doubting this? Do you think Bradley is the only CF anyone raves about?

[moonslav59]

If I'm starting a Mt. Rushmore of owners Bob Kraft is right there beside John Henry.

 

I think the Celtics had 3 different owner groups during their glory years, so I guess none qualify?

[moonslav59]

Yes, especially Buxton, Cain, Hamilton and, for some reason, Engel.

 

I live in Chicago, so I see plenty of AL and NL Central teams. (FYI some of them also love Harrison Bader.) Last year I saw Kiermeier and Buxton at Comiskey/US Cellular/Guaranteed Rate Field in person.

 

As for Laureano, go to YouTube and make the call for yourself. Like this one

 

And bear in mind that throw had no cutoff man and I don’t think it even bounced. And there are other clips. The dude is amazing.

 

But the big question is - why are you doubting this? Do you think Bradley is the only CF anyone raves about?

 

We need a metric that measures the amount and degree of these raves.

[S5Dewey]

We see JBJ every day so Sox fans tend to over rate JBJ compared to Keirmeier but whenever the Sox play the Rays even the NESN announcers recognize Keirmeier's prowess. Keirmeier has two gold gloves. He didn't play last year due to injury and not the full year in 2017 but that year he came in second place in Defensive Runs Saved at center field with 22, a career low, and short only of the Minnesota Twins' Byron Buxton, whom led with 24 Defensive Runs Saved, even though Kiermaier played in over 300 less innings than Buxton. When healthy he clearly is not only the better defender than JBJ he has the better more accurate arm and is better at the plate.

 

Does a CF'er have to be the unequivocal best CF'er in baseball in order for it to be smart for his team to keep him?

 

I'm not sure how Keiermeier got dragged into this conversation. I'm not trying to make the case that JBJ is the best CF'er in baseball. I'm just saying that 1) I don't put a lot of faith in a Yankee fan poster who has an agenda of frequently trolling this site, 2) keeping JBJ is smarter than releasing or trading him, and 3) JH knows it.

[moonslav59]

Does a CF'er have to be the unequivocal best CF'er in baseball in order for it to be smart for his team to keep him?

 

I'm not sure how Keiermeier got dragged into this conversation. I'm not trying to make the case that JBJ is the best CF'er in baseball. I'm just saying that 1) I don't put a lot of faith in a Yankee fan poster who has an agenda of frequently trolling this site, 2) keeping JBJ is smarter than releasing or trading him, and 3) JH knows it.

 

If we have no budget constraints, I can see the value in keeping JBJ, but it seems pretty clear- reset or not- we will have spending limitations. Spending $10-11M on JBJ, when we can get a similar defensive CF'er for less than half that costs just doesn't make sense to me.

 

I want to understand your apparent need to have JBJ on the 2020 team. I don't get the Betts protection theory since both are FAs after 2020. If it's about trading Betts this winter or next summer, and you want JBJ for that scenario, trading Betts would mean we are rebuilding in 2020 and wouldn't need JBJ for 2020 and could sign him as a FA afterwards, if we wished.

 

If the reason is because you are afraid we'd trade or non tender JBJ and end up with a significantly inferior defensive CF'er, I'd share that concern, unless it was just a 1 year temporary bridge to 2021 and a rebuild/reset situation. My plan has been to trade JBJ and bring in an equal, very close or better defensive CF'er at a fraction of the cost, but you seem to not like that idea, or don't trust we can find one, or you don't think there are any as good as JBJ that are easily obtainable. I'm not sure what the fear is.

 

If I told you we could get Billy Hamilton for $1.5M before we had to decide on JBJ, would you then be okay with trading or non tendering him this winter? Would your answer change, if you found out we were certain to reset next year?

 

I know there's a lot of questions here, and I'm sincerely interested inn your opinions, because I share a lot of the same philosophies as you do, especially pertaining to defense up the middle. I'm just having trouble understanding why you seem to be clinging to JBJ, so much.

 

I can understand wanting a .730 GG type CF'er over a .630 GG type CF'er, but if we can save $10M and still have great CF defense, I'm open to the idea.

 

[moonslav59]

AZ Fall League...

 

Red Sox (Peoria): Bryan Mata, RHP (No. 3); Jarren Duran, OF (No. 4); Tanner Houck, RHP (No. 5); C.J. Chatham, SS (No. 9); Marcus Wilson, OF (No. 17); Yoan Aybar, LHP (No. 29)

 

All six of the announced Red Sox farmhands so far are Top 30 Prospects, including several of their best. Mata and Houck are the two best pitchers in their system, while Duran appeared in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game in his first full pro season and has batted .307/.373/.411 with 35 extra-base hits and 44 steals while rushing to Double-A. Complete roster »

[oldtimer]

AZ Fall League...

 

Red Sox (Peoria): Bryan Mata, RHP (No. 3); Jarren Duran, OF (No. 4); Tanner Houck, RHP (No. 5); C.J. Chatham, SS (No. 9); Marcus Wilson, OF (No. 17); Yoan Aybar, LHP (No. 29)

 

All six of the announced Red Sox farmhands so far are Top 30 Prospects, including several of their best. Mata and Houck are the two best pitchers in their system, while Duran appeared in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game in his first full pro season and has batted .307/.373/.411 with 35 extra-base hits and 44 steals while rushing to Double-A. Complete roster »

 

I do feel the reset will occur in 2020. The Sox will need to offset our bloated budget that will still likely result from having underperformers on salary, with low cost younger players, I would think Mata, Houck, Duran and Chatham are possible replacement players, where we may need them the most (CF, SP and IF). Not all these guys will make the grade next year, but giving them a chance to gain experience and help us starting with Spring Training makes a lot of sense. We do have Travis, Chavis, Lin, MHern and Holt who will compete with some of them, but other than DHern we have no other young SP talent and we need to replace Porcello and one would have to be very optimistic to think all three of Price, Sale and Eovaldi would be contributors going forward.

[moonslav59]

I do feel the reset will occur in 2020. The Sox will need to offset our bloated budget that will still likely result from having underperformers on salary, with low cost younger players, I would think Mata, Houck, Duran and Chatham are possible replacement players, where we may need them the most (CF, SP and IF). Not all these guys will make the grade next year, but giving them a chance to gain experience and help us starting with Spring Training makes a lot of sense. We do have Travis, Chavis, Lin, MHern and Holt who will compete with some of them, but other than DHern we have no other young SP talent and we need to replace Porcello and one would have to be very optimistic to think all three of Price, Sale and Eovaldi would be contributors going forward.

 

I'd add Dalbec and Ockimey to the mix of players with a chance of making a "reset" roster.

[moonslav59]

JBJ sets a record...

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. hits 478-foot home run

WWW.MLB.COM

---

DENVER -- It didn't matter if it was thin air or thick air. Forget about whether it was high altitude or low altitude. Jackie Bradley Jr. hit an absolute moonshot on Tuesday night at Coors Field. And the data proved that Bradley's blast to the third deck in right-center field,

[Slasher9]

JBJ sets a record...

 

Jackie Bradley Jr. hits 478-foot home run

WWW.MLB.COM

---

DENVER -- It didn't matter if it was thin air or thick air. Forget about whether it was high altitude or low altitude. Jackie Bradley Jr. hit an absolute moonshot on Tuesday night at Coors Field. And the data proved that Bradley's blast to the third deck in right-center field,

 

Meh. Kiermeier would have hit it 20’ further.....and then sprint out to CF while the ball was in the air and robbed his own homerun....

[notin]

Does a CF'er have to be the unequivocal best CF'er in baseball in order for it to be smart for his team to keep him?

 

I'm not sure how Keiermeier got dragged into this conversation. I'm not trying to make the case that JBJ is the best CF'er in baseball. I'm just saying that 1) I don't put a lot of faith in a Yankee fan poster who has an agenda of frequently trolling this site, 2) keeping JBJ is smarter than releasing or trading him, and 3) JH knows it.

 

I don’t think you get to speak for John Henry here. But if you do, at least remember he is a strong metrics guy and was one of the first owners in MLB to add metrics people to the front office. Unless he only hired Bill James to play Santa at the office Christmas party, which would also have been a good idea.

 

It’s not whether JBJ is the best or not. It’s whether he’s worth $10-12 mil. It’s easy to say yes when he’s your favorite player and you’re not actually paying the bills, and if no serious decisions have to be made about the finances of this team. Having Bradley back would be great, but he won’t be cheap. He didn’t hire Scott Boras so he could take a paycut.

 

Now bear in mind, a reset is just a board theory. It makes sense in a lot of ways, it’s not like we’re working with insider info here. But right now, this team is Betts-Bogaerts-Devers as the core. And a reset might be the only way to keep that core...

[notin]

Meh. Kiermeier would have hit it 20’ further.....and then sprint out to CF while the ball was in the air and robbed his own homerun....

 

Laureano can do all that and throw himself out at the plate. And he does it by throwing it the wrong way so it circles the globe and comes back to him covered with stickers of all the countries it passed through...

[notin]

I do feel the reset will occur in 2020. The Sox will need to offset our bloated budget that will still likely result from having underperformers on salary, with low cost younger players, I would think Mata, Houck, Duran and Chatham are possible replacement players, where we may need them the most (CF, SP and IF). Not all these guys will make the grade next year, but giving them a chance to gain experience and help us starting with Spring Training makes a lot of sense. We do have Travis, Chavis, Lin, MHern and Holt who will compete with some of them, but other than DHern we have no other young SP talent and we need to replace Porcello and one would have to be very optimistic to think all three of Price, Sale and Eovaldi would be contributors going forward.

 

Mata is 20 and not exactly dominating AA. I hope he doesn’t make the team in 2020, for multiple reasons. Ditto Duran.

 

I could see Chatham in the 2b mix with Marco. And maybe Houck on the 40 man

 

The Sox might have to resort to a minor league contract or two to keep payroll down, but that’s no reason to ruin any promise on the farm in the process...

[notin]

I'd add Dalbec and Ockimey to the mix of players with a chance of making a "reset" roster.

 

Add Dalbec to another roster and get a pitcher (and not a belly-itcher) back...

[S5Dewey]

 

I want to understand your apparent need to have JBJ on the 2020 team. I don't get the Betts protection theory since both are FAs after 2020. If it's about trading Betts this winter or next summer, and you want JBJ for that scenario, trading Betts would mean we are rebuilding in 2020 and wouldn't need JBJ for 2020 and could sign him as a FA afterwards, if we wished.

 

If the reason is because you are afraid we'd trade or non tender JBJ and end up with a significantly inferior defensive CF'er, I'd share that concern, unless it was just a 1 year temporary bridge to 2021 and a rebuild/reset situation. My plan has been to trade JBJ and bring in an equal, very close or better defensive CF'er at a fraction of the cost, but you seem to not like that idea, or don't trust we can find one, or you don't think there are any as good as JBJ that are easily obtainable. I'm not sure what the fear is.

 

I know there's a lot of questions here, and I'm sincerely interested inn your opinions, because I share a lot of the same philosophies as you do, especially pertaining to defense up the middle. I'm just having trouble understanding why you seem to be clinging to JBJ, so much.

 

 

I have resigned myself to the idea that Mookie isn't coming through that door in 2021. If you were a championship-type player, someone you build a team around, would you want to come back to a team that's obviously in the start of a rebuild, but with a decimated farm? I sure wouldn't. Trust me. After you've been on a winning team losing becomes not an option if you can control it. I'd be wiling to settle for a few million dollars less over the life of the contract to play for a winner. (And I know that "a few million dollars' is still a lot of money but it's not as much when you have 300 of them piled up anyway). So I don't see him coming back. In fact, IMO he'd be stupid if he does come back.

 

So then we have JBJ, who can be signed for a whole lot less to anchor that outfield. I don't expect to see anyone throwing $300M, $200M, or even $100M his way unless it's a lifetime contract - and the Sox would be stupid to offer anyone not named Mookie (or maybe Devers) a lifetime contract.

 

Like DD, I like defense! I believe that defense is as important to winning games as is offense and I believe our pitching staff would tell you the same thing. Like DD, I also believe in the old adage (if 'old adages' haven't been outdated in this time of metrics) of being Solid Up The Middle. Our up-the-middle defense is weak enough as it is with Bogaerts and a PTBNL in the infield. [sidebar disclaimer: IMO Bogaerts offensive capability outweighs his defensive shortcomings so I'm not advocating moving him but that doesn't make him any better defensively].

Getting back to SUTM now, I've always believed that a winning team should be solid defensively at C, 2b, SS, & CF and accept any offensive shortcomings at those positions to be that way. I've also believed that if a team has to have defensive weaknesses it should be at the corner positions. I don't particularly like having defensive weaknesses anywhere but if a team has an offensive player like XBo in an UTM position they can afford a weakness at a corner position.

 

In a nutshell, if the Sox are going into a rebuild mode I believe they should take the longer view and keep the best players they can afford to keep in the long run and not be so focused on the next year that they let one (or more) of those players get away. I also believe that one in the hand is worth two in the bush. We KNOW we can sign JBJ to another season and then deal with signing him (or not) for 2021 depending on what the 2021 team looks like. I'd rather do that and accept the salary consequences than risk our outfield defense in 2021 & beyond by losing both JBJ for 2020 & Mookie in 2021 in two years. I DO NOT want to see this team turn into Baltimore or Toronto for the sake of a 'rebuild'.

 

And BTW, I also haven't given up on the future of the team that takes the field now. Our only weakness is starting pitching and it's entirely possible that we, for some reason, hit The Perfect Storm of bad pitching this year. The thing that concerns me most is the situation with Sale, which, in spite of what I read here, hasn't been resolved yet and won't be until they can do more diagnostic work on his elbow. But even if Sale goes down in 2020 I still keep JBJ and try to sign him for 2021 and beyond.

 

Phew!

[notin]

I see no reason to walk assume Betts isn’t coming back. The Sox will have the need and the budget space, and while there are certainly other large market teams, many of them either lack the budget room or have their own elite players to worry about.

 

Certainly there’s still a really good chance Mookie leaves, but this is a situation where the Sox should do everything possible.

 

This could mean Bradley. While Dombrowski’s commitment to defense isn’t so historically accurate, he also isn’t going to simply leave CF vacant. Possibly a glove-first type, as most of them are cheaper. But maybe the Sox slide a current corner over, which can be great (Betts) for defense fans, or not so great (that non-Betts guy).

 

The good news for fans of defense is, if the Sox go this budget-conscious way, the cheapest way to fill the outfield is a no-hit/good field CF...

[Bellhorn04]

Interestingly (or not), we have 3 players who are having substantially better offensive seasons than Mookie this year.

[moonslav59]

First, thank you for your thoughtful response.

 

I have resigned myself to the idea that Mookie isn't coming through that door in 2021. If you were a championship-type player, someone you build a team around, would you want to come back to a team that's obviously in the start of a rebuild, but with a decimated farm? I sure wouldn't. Trust me. After you've been on a winning team losing becomes not an option if you can control it. I'd be wiling to settle for a few million dollars less over the life of the contract to play for a winner. (And I know that "a few million dollars' is still a lot of money but it's not as much when you have 300 of them piled up anyway). So I don't see him coming back. In fact, IMO he'd be stupid if he does come back.

 

Although I see the Sox as entering a "rebuild mode" very soon, I do not think it will be a long drawn out rebuild- like the Astros. Henry has shown he is willing to spend, and I think once we reset, we will be back to near the top in player budget spending the next year. That is a huge draw to any free agent or player looking to see where he may want to spend the next 7-10 years.

 

Also, if we end up losing Betts, I don't think Henry will pocket the $30+M and say, "Oh well, that sucked!" He will spend it elsewhere.

 

So then we have JBJ, who can be signed for a whole lot less to anchor that outfield. I don't expect to see anyone throwing $300M, $200M, or even $100M his way unless it's a lifetime contract - and the Sox would be stupid to offer anyone not named Mookie (or maybe Devers) a lifetime contract.

 

Okay, so what is preventing us from signing JBJ after trading or non tendering him? Or, what is preventing us from signing someone similar to JBJ or maybe even better on defense going forward to the next 2-5 years?

 

Like DD, I like defense! I believe that defense is as important to winning games as is offense and I believe our pitching staff would tell you the same thing. Like DD, I also believe in the old adage (if 'old adages' haven't been outdated in this time of metrics) of being Solid Up The Middle. Our up-the-middle defense is weak enough as it is with Bogaerts and a PTBNL in the infield. [sidebar disclaimer: IMO Bogaerts offensive capability outweighs his defensive shortcomings so I'm not advocating moving him but that doesn't make him any better defensively].

 

I still don't know why another, much cheaper great defensive CF'er wouldn't make the staff and us happy.

 

Getting back to SUTM now, I've always believed that a winning team should be solid defensively at C, 2b, SS, & CF and accept any offensive shortcomings at those positions to be that way. I've also believed that if a team has to have defensive weaknesses it should be at the corner positions. I don't particularly like having defensive weaknesses anywhere but if a team has an offensive player like XBo in an UTM position they can afford a weakness at a corner position.

 

I totally agree.

 

In a nutshell, if the Sox are going into a rebuild mode I believe they should take the longer view and keep the best players they can afford to keep in the long run and not be so focused on the next year that they let one (or more) of those players get away. I also believe that one in the hand is worth two in the bush. We KNOW we can sign JBJ to another season and then deal with signing him (or not) for 2021 depending on what the 2021 team looks like. I'd rather do that and accept the salary consequences than risk our outfield defense in 2021 & beyond by losing both JBJ for 2020 & Mookie in 2021 in two years. I DO NOT want to see this team turn into Baltimore or Toronto for the sake of a 'rebuild'.

 

Would you be okay, if we signed or traded for a CF'er who was equal or better to JBJ, or maybe very slightly worse but much younger?

 

And BTW, I also haven't given up on the future of the team that takes the field now. Our only weakness is starting pitching and it's entirely possible that we, for some reason, hit The Perfect Storm of bad pitching this year. The thing that concerns me most is the situation with Sale, which, in spite of what I read here, hasn't been resolved yet and won't be until they can do more diagnostic work on his elbow. But even if Sale goes down in 2020 I still keep JBJ and try to sign him for 2021 and beyond.

 

Our pen is a weakness, too. Beyond on the field, our farm and budget are our biggest issues.

 

I love what Henry has done for the Sox, but I think he is going to want to reset after 2020 or 2021. If we choose 2021, Betts is 99.9% gone. If we choose 2020, he may be 50-50, but only if JBJ is gone and replaced by a more than capable CF'er.

Phew!

 

Yes, and thanks again for the reply.

 

Let me know, if there are any current CF'er in MLB you'd be okay with instead of JBJ.