Countdown to Playoffs - 2019 edition

[notin]

Indeed. The Red Sox are on pace to finish with a better record than the Seattle Mariners for the eighth time in the last 10 seasons.

 

And this year the Mariners should break their tie with the Red Sox for the most last-place finishes this decade.

 

The Red Sox have four World Series titles this millenium while the Mariners have never been to the World Series. That's what makes each franchise special.

 

Their trajectories may be shifting ... or not.

 

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/8/20/20812419/industry-experts-weigh-in-on-mariners-top-prospects

 

I think it's weird that the Kelenic comparisons range from Mark Kotsay to Christian Yelich/Grady sSizemore. Kotsay was a good player who basically fell off some sort of talent cliff before he turned 30, which Yelich and Sizemore are/were among the best in the game during their careers...

[Kimmi]

I'll make a deal, when the Sox are eliminated that's when I will stop Posting, we still have a chance.

Lets get this Train rolling again.

Go to store get bigger Rally Caps.

 

im with you brother.

 

Ditto.

[Kimmi]

Sure, we still have a chance. One source I read put that chance at 2%. The season is essentially, though not mathematically, over.

 

Five weeks left to play. Make up 1-2 games each week.

 

It's doable.

[oldtimer]

Five weeks left to play. Make up 1-2 games each week.

 

It's doable.

 

We are on the road at the Padres, Rockies and Angels for a total of 8 games and 5 of those without a DH. We are able to use E-Rod, Porcello, Johnson and Eovaldi. We follow that up with 7 games at home against the division leaading Twins and Yankees. We need to win at a 70% chance and/or Oakland and TB need to lose more than half to stand any chance. Mathematically it is still possible, but realistically not so likely. Love to see them play but at some point we need to bring some future players in for a look. A good start would be to bring Chavis back in place of Owings. His 10 days are up tomorrow provided he has recovered from the shoulder strain.

[Bellhorn04]

We're an extreme long shot.

 

Now if, and this is a huge if in itself, the deficit gets cuts to 3 games with a least 3 weeks left, you can be sure most people will acknowledge that they have a real chance. 3 games in 3 weeks really isn't that much.

[dgalehouse]

We're an extreme long shot.

 

Now if, and this is a huge if in itself, the deficit gets cuts to 3 games with a least 3 weeks left, you can be sure most people will acknowledge that they have a real chance. 3 games in 3 weeks really isn't that much.

Well , getting from 6 1/2 to three isn't that much either. Obviously, we don't control our destiny . We do need some help . But I just don't understand why an otherwise good fan would give up already .

[Bellhorn04]

Well , getting from 6 1/2 to three isn't that much either. Obviously, we don't control our destiny . We do need some help . But I just don't understand why an otherwise good fan would give up already .

 

What I think is that even the fans who say they've given up haven't completely given up. They're just very doubtful, and that's understandable considering the statistical probabilities against this happening.

 

Also I think because we won it all last year it's easier to accept that this isn't our year.

 

A psychologist would probably suggest a whole bunch of explanations for the 'I give up' behavior.

 

I do appreciate the optimistic attitude of people like yourself.

[moonslav59]

I guess one can call it "giving up," but I just think it's just reading the writing on the wall.

 

It's in bold print with a large font.

 

I have no beef with anyone who still believes. I'm usually the guy arguing against the non believers, but I just don't see anything to get worked up about.

 

[dgalehouse]

What I think is that even the fans who say they've given up haven't completely given up. They're just very doubtful, and that's understandable considering the statistical probabilities against this happening.

 

Also I think because we won it all last year it's easier to accept that this isn't our year.

 

A psychologist would probably suggest a whole bunch of explanations for the 'I give up' behavior.

 

I do appreciate the optimistic attitude of people like yourself.

 

Okay , but it's not blind optimism. It would be stupid to say that we can still win the division. We cannot. But given the talent level on this Sox team compared with the talent level of the A's and Rays , catching them is not at all out of the question. It won't be easy , but it is still too soon to throw in the towel.

[notin]

I guess one can call it "giving up," but I just think it's just reading the writing on the wall.

 

It's in bold print with a large font.

 

I have no beef with anyone who still believes. I'm usually the guy arguing against the non believers, but I just don't see anything to get worked up about.

 

 

I find it hard to believe, and I rarely wave the ehite flag this early. But at the very least, I am trying to keep the optimistic ones from giving up...

[mvp 78]

It’s ovah, but that’s fine. It’s not the end of the world. The sun will rise on Jet Blue Park again.

[Bellhorn04]

Okay , but it's not blind optimism. It would be stupid to say that we can still win the division. We cannot. But given the talent level on this Sox team compared with the talent level of the A's and Rays , catching them is not at all out of the question. It won't be easy , but it is still too soon to throw in the towel.

 

Unfortunately the A's didn't get the memo about their talent level. They've just won 6 of 7 vs. the Astros and Yanks.

[oldtimer]

I find it hard to believe, and I rarely wave the ehite flag this early. But at the very least, I am trying to keep the optimistic ones from giving up...

 

Given the probabilities of getting into the WC and based on the road we have to travel and with the pitching we can muster, I advocate starting to bring in pieces that might help the team now and also be a precursor for next years team. There aren't a lot of moves to make at this point but Chatham for Owings or Chavis returned instead of Owings would be one. The other is the status of our fourth ranked minor leaguer and pitcher Mata. The description of him sounds interesting and we are in desperate need of good pitching. Seems like an obvious move. It's now only 7 days from callups anyways, so I don't think waiting will make that much difference. I would have made the moves a little earlier.

[illinoisredsox]

Given the probabilities of getting into the WC and based on the road we have to travel and with the pitching we can muster, I advocate starting to bring in pieces that might help the team now and also be a precursor for next years team. There aren't a lot of moves to make at this point but Chatham for Owings or Chavis returned instead of Owings would be one. The other is the status of our fourth ranked minor leaguer and pitcher Mata. The description of him sounds interesting and we are in desperate need of good pitching. Seems like an obvious move. It's now only 7 days from callups anyways, so I don't think waiting will make that much difference. I would have made the moves a little earlier.

 

Mata is a 20 year old kid who has pitched all of 9 games at AA and hasn’t been all that good that that level yet. Yes he has potential but no way is he ready for a call up.

[Bellhorn04]

You can't chuck in the season just because your probabilities are low.

[Slasher9]

we have s*** in the Farm anyways. i just dont get why people cant wait another week for unlimited callups to see the dreck on the big stage.

i also dont get giving up already. but thats just me.....

[Larry33]

Well , getting from 6 1/2 to three isn't that much either. Obviously, we don't control our destiny . We do need some help . But I just don't understand why an otherwise good fan would give up already .

 

You better make that 7 because the Red Sox are down 7 games to the A's and Rays in the wildcard standings.

[notin]

we have s*** in the Farm anyways. i just dont get why people cant wait another week for unlimited callups to see the dreck on the big stage.

i also dont get giving up already. but thats just me.....

 

The only player on the 40-man roster we haven't seen this year is Joey Curletta, who's hitting .205 with a .657 OPS in Portland. Is your belly button puckering and unpuckering with excitement too?

 

The only players who might even be somewhat intriguing who might be called up are Dalbec, Chatham, and Reyes, but none of them are really killing it in the minors right now. (Dalbec is somewhat impressive, but his .234 BA in Pawtucket doesn't scream "promote me!"

 

We might see Dalbec and/or Reyes, I guess. But we have to DFA a couple people first. I nominate Curletta and Smith...

[moonslav59]

The only player on the 40-man roster we haven't seen this year is Joey Curletta, who's hitting .205 with a .657 OPS in Portland. Is your belly button puckering and unpuckering with excitement too?

 

The only players who might even be somewhat intriguing who might be called up are Dalbec, Chatham, and Reyes, but none of them are really killing it in the minors right now. (Dalbec is somewhat impressive, but his .234 BA in Pawtucket doesn't scream "promote me!"

 

We might see Dalbec and/or Reyes, I guess. But we have to DFA a couple people first. I nominate Curletta and Smith...

 

Dalbec does have a .368 OBP this year, so the .234 BA is forgivable.

 

However, a high OBP doesn't always translate well to MLB- see Garin Cecchini.

 

Dalbec & Chatham should be September call-ups, maybe Reyes, too.

[dgalehouse]

The Guardians just got swept by the surging Mets. They are now trailing the A's and Rays by percentage points . The only thing they have going for them right now is playing in the weakest division in MLB. And the much maligned Mets can be a dangerous team if they can make it into the post season . If they can turn it around , why not us ?

[Slasher9]

The Guardians just got swept by the surging Mets. They are now trailing the A's and Rays by percentage points . The only thing they have going for them right now is playing in the weakest division in MLB. And the much maligned Mets can be a dangerous team if they can make it into the post season . If they can turn it around , why not us ?

 

agreed!

i am actually heading to Citifield tonight for Braves v Mets. deGrom on the bump.

[notin]

Dalbec does have a .368 OBP this year, so the .234 BA is forgivable.

 

However, a high OBP doesn't always translate well to MLB- see Garin Cecchini.

 

Dalbec & Chatham should be September call-ups, maybe Reyes, too.

 

So who goes? Curletta, Smith, and ? Weber?

[dgalehouse]

So who goes? Curletta, Smith, and ? Weber?

 

On August 23 , the burning question on everyone's mind is ; " Who goes ? Curletta, Smith and Weber " ? Who would have imagined that back in April ?

[moonslav59]

So who goes? Curletta, Smith, and ? Weber?

 

I'd bring up Dalbec, Chatham, Reyes, Shawaryn, Weber and maybe Centeno.

 

This winter, I wouldn't blink if any of these guys were cut loose. (The sheer number shows how weak our upper farm system is right now.)

 

Owings

Curletta

Kelley

 

Trade fillers:

Johnson

Velazquez

Shawaryn

Weber

Josh Smith

Lakins

Poyner

Brewer?

Brasier?

Wright?

Travis?

Lin?

Hembree?

 

Soon to be FAs:

Porcello

Moreland

Pearce

Cashner

Holt (The only one I'd try to keep.)

 

Deadwood:

Pedroia

 

Leon may finally be replaced.

 

That leaves only 18-22 meaningful players on the 40 man roster, next year.

 

[jung]

I'd bring up Dalbec, Chatham, Reyes, Shawaryn, Weber and maybe Centeno.

 

This winter, I wouldn't blink if any of these guys were cut loose. (The sheer number shows how weak our upper farm system is right now.)

 

Owings

Curletta

Kelley

 

Trade fillers:

Johnson

Velazquez

Shawaryn

Weber

Josh Smith

Lakins

Poyner

Brewer?

Brasier?

Wright?

Travis?

Lin?

Hembree?

 

Soon to be FAs:

Porcello

Moreland

Pearce

Cashner

Holt (The only one I'd try to keep.)

 

Deadwood:

Pedroia

 

Leon may finally be replaced.

 

That leaves only 18-22 meaningful players on the 40 man roster, next year.

 

 

I like your trade fillers category.

 

Usually it takes buckets and buckets of those guys to fill in if you are shy any real talent under the actual trade principles. As it turns out, we have buckets and buckets and buckets and ......... You get the picture probably better than most of us.

[harmony]

The Guardians just got swept by the surging Mets. They are now trailing the A's and Rays by percentage points . The only thing they have going for them right now is playing in the weakest division in MLB. And the much maligned Mets can be a dangerous team if they can make it into the post season . If they can turn it around , why not us ?

A year ago today the Seattle Mariners were four games back in the Wild Card race with a 21.1 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc?date=2018-08-23&dateDelta=

 

The Red Sox are currently seven games back in the Wild Card race with a 3.6 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc

[moonslav59]

I like your trade fillers category.

 

Usually it takes buckets and buckets of those guys to fill in if you are shy any real talent under the actual trade principles. As it turns out, we have buckets and buckets and buckets and ......... You get the picture probably better than most of us.

 

I didn't even mention JBJ, who may very well be traded or non tendered this winter.

 

The shorter list would be the likely keepers (listed in order of seniority on the 40 man roster):

(only 15-17 players!)

Pedey (because we have to)

Vazquez (2 years left + option)

JBJ (last arb- may be traded or non tendered)

Workman (last arb)

Bogey (locked up)

Betts (last arb)

Barnes (2 arbs left)

ERod (2 arbs left)

Marco (still pre-arb)

Price (3 years left)

Beni (3 arbs left)

Sale (locked up)

Devers (still pre-arb)

JD (options remaining)

Walden (pre-arb)

Chavis (pre-arb)

J Taylor (pre-arb)

 

Maybe 19-23 total keepers, if you add these 4 ...

Hembree (2 arbs left)

Wright (1 arb)

Johnson (pre-arb)

Brasier (per-arb)

 

[moonslav59]

I like your trade fillers category.

 

Can we trade all 13 for 2-3 decent and reliable role players?

[jung]

The Guardians just got swept by the surging Mets. They are now trailing the A's and Rays by percentage points . The only thing they have going for them right now is playing in the weakest division in MLB. And the much maligned Mets can be a dangerous team if they can make it into the post season . If they can turn it around , why not us ?

 

I really thought the Guardians had a shot. But now every guy that could help them including Cory Kluber has been transferred to the 60 day IL, most of them in the last week. Now they have drek coming back if their 60 day IL transfers are to be believed. Probably have to best the Twins for the Division to make it in.

[moonslav59]

I really thought the Guardians had a shot. But now every guy that could help them including Cory Kluber has been transferred to the 60 day IL, most of them in the last week. Now they have drek coming back if their 60 day IL transfers are to be believed. Probably have to best the Twins for the Division to make it in.

 

Trading Bauer didn't help for this year.