A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[kenmeister]

The Good

Devers .928

Vazquez .809

Workman 1.87

Walden 3.30

JTaylor 3.34

(Marco .862 & Travis .771 in limited duty)

 

The Bad (or not so Good/not reached expectations)

JD Martinez .943 (but just 71 rbis)

Betts .882 (Just 62 rbis)

Beni .825 (just 60 rbis)

Moreland .826 (hurt too much-again)

B Holt .811 (hurt too much, again)

Chavis .766 (sub .700 since his friat 14 games)

Leon .576 (pitcher magic not enough)

Sale 4.41 (inconsistent)

Price 4.36 (low innings)

ERod 4.17 (fading)

 

 

The Ugly

JBJ .696 (all in one 6 week hot streak)

Nunez, Pearce, Pedey, Swihart (no numbers needed)

Porcello 5.67

Barnes 4.70

Cashner,Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, Weber, Shawaryn

Hembree, Brasier, Poyner, TKelley, Brewer, Lakins, Thornburg, ERamirez, JSmith

 

Missed Bogaerts

[jung]

Interesting that the wheels came completely off, directly in the wake of another DP self-indulgent & unprovoked RAKE on Eck?

 

Our boys in Red Hose have been holding a season long Whaaaaaaaaa fest from start till now. Watch how much further downhill this gets before this season mercifully ends.

 

I absolutely agree that a team that is holding a season long Whaaaaaa fest was just waiting for an excuse to completely fold up and Price plus the trade deadline gave them all the excuse they needed.

 

X and Rafi have been the only really bright spots in an abysmal season. I thought a repeat highly unlikely. But being subjected to the usual lawn chair el foldo that the Sox are actually pretty famous for is a bit more than my old, weak stomach can take.

[notin]

I hope you're not falling into the trap of "Offense is all that matters". I'm happy enough with ~.700, considering the defense he brings to the game I certainly wouldn't put him in the "Ugly" column. Also, he's hitting at/near the bottom of the order of a team that's close to the top of baseball in runs scored. So... how much is that .700 actually hurting the team? How does that compare to other team's hitters at the bottom of the order?

 

Let's not make him the scapegoat for this poor season. JBJ is not the reason this team is losing games.

 

I don’t mind Bradley’s bat at sub-.700 OPS for an 8th or 9th spot hitter. But he made $8.8mill this year and could make close to $11mill next year. His overall play just won’t justify that salary for a team that might be taking budget into account and resetting. If the Sox do plan to reset (which they should), no way they keep Bradley unless something unforeseen happens (Price Trade, Martinez opts out).

 

For a lot less than $11mill, the Sox can get another all glove/no bat outfielder....

[dannycater]

note, while I agree that Bradley is an eyesore in the batting order and goes through bouts of nothing followed by some streaks, but mostly ends with a poor BAVG, OBP, and OPS, I just can't let that guy's defense go away. It doesn't justify his salary, but I'm so used to his mostly dazzling OF defense, I think it does make a difference (this year nothing makes a difference), but it did in a big way for sure last season. It's tough, I love the guy, and I hate him and I think that's his bizzarro world charm.

[OH FOY]

I don’t mind Bradley’s bat at sub-.700 OPS for an 8th or 9th spot hitter. But he made $8.8mill this year and could make close to $11mill next year. His overall play just won’t justify that salary for a team that might be taking budget into account and resetting. If the Sox do plan to reset (which they should), no way they keep Bradley unless something unforeseen happens (Price Trade, Martinez opts out).

 

For a lot less than $11mill, the Sox can get another all glove/no bat outfielder....

 

Agree. He's at the point where you are now overpaying for Defense only. And he's fading as season goes on. Of course whole team is.

Edited August 13, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Nick]

I don’t mind Bradley’s bat at sub-.700 OPS for an 8th or 9th spot hitter. But he made $8.8mill this year and could make close to $11mill next year. His overall play just won’t justify that salary for a team that might be taking budget into account and resetting. If the Sox do plan to reset (which they should), no way they keep Bradley unless something unforeseen happens (Price Trade, Martinez opts out).

 

For a lot less than $11mill, the Sox can get another all glove/no bat outfielder....

 

It's about choices.

 

$11M can buy us a #5 starter plus good glove defensive CF.

[notin]

It's about choices.

 

$11M can buy us a #5 starter plus good glove defensive CF.

 

Entirely possible...

[moonslav59]

I hope you're not falling into the trap of "Offense is all that matters". I'm happy enough with ~.700, considering the defense he brings to the game I certainly wouldn't put him in the "Ugly" column. Also, he's hitting at/near the bottom of the order of a team that's close to the top of baseball in runs scored. So... how much is that .700 actually hurting the team? How does that compare to other team's hitters at the bottom of the order?

 

Let's not make him the scapegoat for this poor season. JBJ is not the reason this team is losing games.

 

His defense appears to have slipped a little. I'm okay with moving him from ugly to bad.

[moonslav59]

Our boys in Red Hose have been holding a season long Whaaaaaaaaa fest from start till now. Watch how much further downhill this gets before this season mercifully ends.

 

I absolutely agree that a team that is holding a season long Whaaaaaa fest was just waiting for an excuse to completely fold up and Price plus the trade deadline gave them all the excuse they needed.

 

X and Rafi have been the only really bright spots in an abysmal season. I thought a repeat highly unlikely. But being subjected to the usual lawn chair el foldo that the Sox are actually pretty famous for is a bit more than my old, weak stomach can take.

 

Vaz & Workman have not been "bright?"

[moonslav59]

Agree. He's at the point where you are now overpaying for Defense only. And he's fading as season goes on. Of course whole team is.

 

He's my favorite player, but paying over $10M for great but fading D and sub .700 offense is not something we can afford going forward.

 

We could probably get great D and .600 from Billy Hamilton for peanuts.

[Bellhorn04]

Vaz & Workman have not been "bright?"

 

jung is merciless.

[oldtimer]

The Good

Bogaerts .932

Devers .928

Vazquez .809

Workman 1.87

Walden 3.30

JTaylor 3.34

(Marco .862 & Travis .771 in limited duty)

 

The Bad (or not so Good/not reached expectations)

JD Martinez .943 (but just 71 rbis)

Betts .882 (Just 62 rbis)

Beni .825 (just 60 rbis)

Moreland .826 (hurt too much-again)

B Holt .811 (hurt too much, again)

Chavis .766 (sub .700 since his friat 14 games)

Leon .576 (pitcher magic not enough)

Sale 4.41 (inconsistent)

Price 4.36 (low innings)

ERod 4.17 (fading)

 

 

The Ugly

JBJ .696 (all in one 6 week hot streak)

Nunez, Pearce, Pedey, Swihart (no numbers needed)

Porcello 5.67

Barnes 4.70

Cashner,Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, Weber, Shawaryn

Hembree, Brasier, Poyner, TKelley, Brewer, Lakins, Thornburg, ERamirez, JSmith

 

Beni's OPS this year is 830 and 2018 it was 830. It seems like your expectations were that he would improve over last year. His rbi and runs are both over 60 and I would guess he will come in around 80+ for the year since he is hitting better of late. How is that bad?

[Bellhorn04]

Beni's OPS this year is 830 and 2018 it was 830. It seems like your expectations were that he would improve over last year. His rbi and runs are both over 60 and I would guess he will come in around 80+ for the year since he is hitting better of late. How is that bad?

 

I would agree and I'd say the same about JD Martinez. Nothing wrong at all with his numbers.

 

With regard to the RBI totals, they've been spread around more this year.

[Nick]

He's my favorite player, but paying over $10M for great but fading D and sub .700 offense is not something we can afford going forward.

 

We could probably get great D and .600 from Billy Hamilton for peanuts.

 

JBJ is a luxury we can't afford any longer. He's your weekend, vintage convertible that breaks down too often (read it no hitting for long stretch) and you have kids going to college next year. Time to get rid of it and cut the losses.

[Nick]

Remember Chris Freakin' Sale?

 

Moon and I thought we can't live with out him? Now we're finding out maybe we shouldn't have extended him.

 

Why can't we live without Betts? We can't win a championship ever again without him? I'd like to think not.

 

Why can't we take the approach of Rays with a twist? Go big at trade deadline?

 

Ray's and A's understand the economy of small market clubs. You SELL when the value is high.

 

I'd like to see Sox take that approach. First, make an offer to extend the player. (Xavier).

 

Then buy a rental at the top of his game at trade deadline. Obviously we still need a strong farm to execute that plan.

 

How many young major league ready starting pitchers can we get for Devers? (my favorite Red Sox right now)

Edited August 13, 2019 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

JBJ is a luxury we can't afford any longer. He's your weekend, vintage convertible that breaks down too often (read it no hitting for long stretch) and you have kids going to college next year. Time to get rid of it and cut the losses.

 

I gotta say back up the truck a little on this.

 

JBJ makes 8.55 mill this year. His current fWAR is 0.7, worth 5.2 mill. It looks like he'll end up as a very slight overpay.

 

The other thing is, if we move Mookie Betts, JBJ suddenly becomes a little more important in terms of defensive value. And it appears that his 2019 defensive rating is being hurt by the simple fact that fewer balls are being hit to him.

 

notin's idea of non-tendering him and signing at a lesser amount might be the best one.

[Bellhorn04]

Why can't we take the approach of Rays with a twist? Go big at trade deadline?

 

Ray's and A's understand the economy of small market clubs. You SELL when the value is high.

 

I'd like to see Sox take that approach.

 

Ray's and A's are doing great for the dollar but are a little lacking in the rings and parades thing...

[OH FOY]

Sunday night they asked on ESPN 5 Major Leaguers, all sort of new stats, the best one was WAR.

Blackmon said the best one, Wins After Runs.

[Nick]

Ray's and A's are doing great for the dollar but are a little lacking in the rings and parades thing...

 

I'm suggesting using a hybrid approach. Always having cap space to go for it if needed at the trade deadline. Trade for high end one or two year rentals.

[kenmeister]

I'm suggesting using a hybrid approach. Always having cap space to go for it if needed at the trade deadline. Trade for high end one or two year rentals.

 

Definitely.

 

Also, I like the mantra, "No free agent or extension deal longer than 3 years."

 

To that I'd add, "No multi-year extensions on someone who ends a year on a down or injured note."

[Bellhorn04]

Definitely.

 

Also, I like the mantra, "No free agent or extension deal longer than 3 years."

 

That will eliminate a few of those pricy elite players!

[kenmeister]

That will eliminate a few of those pricy elite players!

 

When you look back at the history of Red Sox 4+ year signings or extensions, it's amazing how few were worth it. Manny Ramirez was, but we still had to ship him off before it completed. Johnny Damon had a great 4 years here. Anybody else?

[moonslav59]

Beni's OPS this year is 830 and 2018 it was 830. It seems like your expectations were that he would improve over last year. His rbi and runs are both over 60 and I would guess he will come in around 80+ for the year since he is hitting better of late. How is that bad?

 

I expected age progression growth. His defense got worse.

 

He's hot right now, but he didn't help much when we were still in it.

 

(I clearly stated "Bad" could be just not meeting expectations.)

[moonslav59]

When you look back at the history of Red Sox 4+ year signings or extensions, it's amazing how few were worth it. Manny Ramirez was, but we still had to ship him off before it completed. Johnny Damon had a great 4 years here. Anybody else?

 

The only two who come close were JD Drew & Price.

[moonslav59]

I would agree and I'd say the same about JD Martinez. Nothing wrong at all with his numbers.

 

With regard to the RBI totals, they've been spread around more this year.

 

JD got up with a lot of men on base, this year.

[moonslav59]

Remember Chris Freakin' Sale?

 

Moon and I thought we can't live with out him? Now we're finding out maybe we shouldn't have extended him.

 

Why can't we live without Betts? We can't win a championship ever again without him? I'd like to think not.

 

Why can't we take the approach of Rays with a twist? Go big at trade deadline?

 

Ray's and A's understand the economy of small market clubs. You SELL when the value is high.

 

I'd like to see Sox take that approach. First, make an offer to extend the player. (Xavier).

 

Then buy a rental at the top of his game at trade deadline. Obviously we still need a strong farm to execute that plan.

 

How many young major league ready starting pitchers can we get for Devers? (my favorite Red Sox right now)

 

I'm still confident the Sale signing will work out well. It's not like he's old.

[Bellhorn04]

JD got up with a lot of men on base, this year.

 

.947 OPS with RISP

.962 OPS with men on

[Bellhorn04]

When you look back at the history of Red Sox 4+ year signings or extensions, it's amazing how few were worth it. Manny Ramirez was, but we still had to ship him off before it completed. Johnny Damon had a great 4 years here. Anybody else?

 

Hmmm...who was that Martinez guy who pitched for us for a while? A little on the skinny side...

[S5Dewey]

I gotta say back up the truck a little on this.

 

JBJ makes 8.55 mill this year. His current fWAR is 0.7, worth 5.2 mill. It looks like he'll end up as a very slight overpay.

 

The other thing is, if we move Mookie Betts, JBJ suddenly becomes a little more important in terms of defensive value. And it appears that his 2019 defensive rating is being hurt by the simple fact that fewer balls are being hit to him.

 

notin's idea of non-tendering him and signing at a lesser amount might be the best one.

 

That idea works great as long as 1) The Sox can resign him, and 2) they can do it at a lesser cost. If they can't we could very well be looking at losing both JBJ & Betts.

I say let him go to arb. It's only one year and by the time that year is up we'll have a better idea of what the Sox status is with Mookie.

 

I know I said recently that people tend to undervalue having JBJ & Mookie in that outfield. Did anyone notice that the tying run for the Sox in last night's game was scored on a ball that either Mookie or JBJ would have made the play on "just to stay loose"?

[kenmeister]

Hmmm...who was that Martinez guy who pitched for us for a while? A little on the skinny side...

 

You're probably right; I don't recall his contract details, but despite missing half of 2001 he was great.