A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[notin]

It used to be called a screwball.

 

It is a screwball.

 

Carl Hubbell threw so many in his career that his left hand took a set with his palm facing outward at rest....

[S5Dewey]

I've tried (unsuccessfully) to throw that pitch. The stress it puts on the elbow is amazing.

 

But then again I'm not a ML pitcher,either.

[Slasher9]

It used to be called a screwball.

 

or gyro ball?

[Elktonnick]

I've tried (unsuccessfully) to throw that pitch. The stress it puts on the elbow is amazing.

 

But then again I'm not a ML pitcher,either.

Former major league pitcher and PHD in Kinesiology Mike Marshall is a major proponent of the screwball. His views are controversial but here is an article from SABR published in the fall of 2011,

 

Dr Mike Marshall says, “Throwing screwballs is safer than throwing pitches that require baseball pitchers to supinate their pitching forearm through release.” Supinating the forearm means turning your left hand counter-clockwise away from your body with the thumb up, the way a left-handed pitcher throws a curve; pronating the forearm is the opposite motion, the screwball delivery. Marshall threw his screwball more than one-third of the time, far more often than Hubbell. He has never had arm surgery.

Both men said pronating the forearm does not increase stress on the elbow, compared with a fastball or curve. In fact, Fleisig’s groundbreaking motion analyses show that a curve produces no more force and torque on elbow and shoulder than a fastball, annihilating another of baseball’s conventional wisdoms. As for bone chips, Fleisig said, “Even a pitcher with good mechanics, if you pitch a lot, you can eventually get bone chips.”

 

The prejudice against the pitch remains strong, despite lack of evidence. Besides Juan Marichal and Mike Marshall, the only prominent screwballers since Hubbell were Warren Spahn, who pitched until he was 44, and Fernando Valenzuela, whose career was shortened by a bad shoulder, not an elbow injury. Today pitchers get a similar action—an opposite break from the curveball—with two-seam fastballs and circle change-ups. The screwball’s time has probably passed, though it never really came.

WARREN CORBETT is a contributor to SABR’s Biography Project and the author of "The Wizard of Waxahachie: Paul Richards and the End of Baseball As We Knew It". He lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

[S5Dewey]

Former major league pitcher and PHD in Kinesiology Mike Marshall is a major proponent of the screwball. His views are controversial but here is an article from SABR published in the fall of 2011,

 

Dr Mike Marshall says, “Throwing screwballs is safer than throwing pitches that require baseball pitchers to supinate their pitching forearm through release.” Supinating the forearm means turning your left hand counter-clockwise away from your body with the thumb up, the way a left-handed pitcher throws a curve; pronating the forearm is the opposite motion, the screwball delivery. Marshall threw his screwball more than one-third of the time, far more often than Hubbell. He has never had arm surgery.

Both men said pronating the forearm does not increase stress on the elbow, compared with a fastball or curve. In fact, Fleisig’s groundbreaking motion analyses show that a curve produces no more force and torque on elbow and shoulder than a fastball, annihilating another of baseball’s conventional wisdoms. As for bone chips, Fleisig said, “Even a pitcher with good mechanics, if you pitch a lot, you can eventually get bone chips.”

 

The prejudice against the pitch remains strong, despite lack of evidence. Besides Juan Marichal and Mike Marshall, the only prominent screwballers since Hubbell were Warren Spahn, who pitched until he was 44, and Fernando Valenzuela, whose career was shortened by a bad shoulder, not an elbow injury. Today pitchers get a similar action—an opposite break from the curveball—with two-seam fastballs and circle change-ups. The screwball’s time has probably passed, though it never really came.

WARREN CORBETT is a contributor to SABR’s Biography Project and the author of "The Wizard of Waxahachie: Paul Richards and the End of Baseball As We Knew It". He lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

 

Good stuff. Thanks.

[jung]

The best Changeups are thrown by pronating which is actually the secret to ERod's newfound success with the Change. If you don't pronate that pitch it leaks back across the plate and just gets murdered. Price was throwing it allowing it to leak back over the plate at the start of the season and got creamed with that pitch. Price threw another one this time in his O's recent start just like he was throwing them at the start of the season and once again the pitch got crushed for one of the HR's the O's hit off of him.

[dgalehouse]

Denny, you seem to divide people into two classes, the ones who are good and the jabronis.

 

It keeps things simple, that's for sure!

 

Well , there are ham and eggers too . A ham and egger is a notch better than a jabroni, but certainly not good .

[moonslav59]

The Guardians are hot, but imagine if we were two up in the wild card race and had these numbers. Would we still have so many posters giving up?

 

Top players by PAs this year

PA Rank PA Player OPS

2. 405 Ramirez .694

4. 342 Bauers .707

5. 326 Kipnis .668

7. 264 Martin .619

11. 117 C Gonzalez .558

12. 111 Plawecki .622

 

Kluber & Carrasco on the IL.

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Well , there are ham and eggers too . A ham and egger is a notch better than a jabroni, but certainly not good .

 

I'm duly corrected. You have 3 categories.

[Maxbialystock]

Former major league pitcher and PHD in Kinesiology Mike Marshall is a major proponent of the screwball. His views are controversial but here is an article from SABR published in the fall of 2011,

 

Dr Mike Marshall says, “Throwing screwballs is safer than throwing pitches that require baseball pitchers to supinate their pitching forearm through release.” Supinating the forearm means turning your left hand counter-clockwise away from your body with the thumb up, the way a left-handed pitcher throws a curve; pronating the forearm is the opposite motion, the screwball delivery. Marshall threw his screwball more than one-third of the time, far more often than Hubbell. He has never had arm surgery.

Both men said pronating the forearm does not increase stress on the elbow, compared with a fastball or curve. In fact, Fleisig’s groundbreaking motion analyses show that a curve produces no more force and torque on elbow and shoulder than a fastball, annihilating another of baseball’s conventional wisdoms. As for bone chips, Fleisig said, “Even a pitcher with good mechanics, if you pitch a lot, you can eventually get bone chips.”

 

The prejudice against the pitch remains strong, despite lack of evidence. Besides Juan Marichal and Mike Marshall, the only prominent screwballers since Hubbell were Warren Spahn, who pitched until he was 44, and Fernando Valenzuela, whose career was shortened by a bad shoulder, not an elbow injury. Today pitchers get a similar action—an opposite break from the curveball—with two-seam fastballs and circle change-ups. The screwball’s time has probably passed, though it never really came.

WARREN CORBETT is a contributor to SABR’s Biography Project and the author of "The Wizard of Waxahachie: Paul Richards and the End of Baseball As We Knew It". He lives in Bethesda, Maryland.

 

Fascinating. All this time I thought the changeup and screwball were the same pitch.

[OH FOY]

Guardians are beating the bad teams, something we have struggled a bit this year. Edited July 23, 2019 by OH FOY!

[S5Dewey]

Guardians are beating the bad teams, something we have struggled a bit this year.

 

That's the reason the Sox are where they are, 10 games back of the Yankees. To win the division a team has to beat the teams they can beat and be competitive with the other teams. The Sox aren't beating the teams they can beat.

[Slasher9]

That's the reason the Sox are where they are, 10 games back of the Yankees. To win the division a team has to beat the teams they can beat and be competitive with the other teams. The Sox aren't beating the teams they can beat.

 

yup. plus our home record is suck.

[moonslav59]

Top PA players & their OPS- BOS vs CLE:

Red= .020 or more higher

OPS BOS (PAs)/OPS CLE (PAs)

.875 Betts(470)/ .929 Santana (425)

.967 Bogey (438)/.699 Ramirez (410)

.941 Devers (428)/ .853 Lindor (363)

.875 JD Mar (409)/ .705 Bauers (347)

.776 Beni (404)/ .679 Kipnis (331)

.724 J B J (366)/ .801 Perez (273)

.779 Chavis(331)/ .619 Martin (264)

.821 Vazques(315)/ .838 Mercado (230)

.859 Morelnd (174)/ .827 Naquin (212)

.849 B Holt (138)/ .852 Luplow (188)

.583 S Leon(126)/ .558 CGonzo (117)

 

If this doesn't show it's "all about pitching," I don't know what does.

 

[oldtimer]

Top PA players & their OPS- BOS vs CLE:

Red= .020 or more higher

OPS BOS (PAs)/OPS CLE (PAs)

.875 Betts(470)/ .929 Santana (425)

.967 Bogey (438)/.699 Ramirez (410)

.941 Devers (428)/ .853 Lindor (363)

.875 JD Mar (409)/ .705 Bauers (347)

.776 Beni (404)/ .679 Kipnis (331)

.724 J B J (366)/ .801 Perez (273)

.779 Chavis(331)/ .619 Martin (264)

.821 Vazques(315)/ .838 Mercado (230)

.859 Morelnd (174)/ .827 Naquin (212)

.849 B Holt (138)/ .852 Luplow (188)

.583 S Leon(126)/ .558 CGonzo (117)

 

If this doesn't show it's "all about pitching," I don't know what does.

 

 

When we get 17 runs one day and none the next, it can skew the stats. I'll grant it that there is a lot to dislike about our pitching, but we have also looked bad att the plate against so so pitching all together too often. As Cora says, they have t play better in all facets of the game.

[Kimmi]

It is Ridiculous to say that I am on a mission against Porcello. I recently proposed resigning him for 3/$45 million. I thought he was overpaid at $22 million/year for 4 years, because he is a 4.25 ERA Middle to bottom of the rotation pitcher. What he is going through now, he has been through before. Some years it has lasted the entire season. Last year, I think his final two months were 5+ ERA, but he was able to step up in the post season. This season he has been consistent garbage. I think he can straighten himself out and the team needs him to pitch well. I am not giving a pass to the other 3 pitchers. Each has been more consistent and far better than Porcello this season since the end of April. The argument is what the team needs — bullpen or starting pitchers. We have 2 Cy Young winners (Price and Porcello) plus Chris Sale and ERod is in the midst of his best season. We have a talented starting Corps. We don’t have a talented bullpen. They are full of minor league and borderline major league arms. The deficit in talent couldn’t be any more clear.

 

Your bias accusation is ridiculous and I will chalk it up to you having missed your morning coffee or something else that threw off your game.

 

Boston Sports Info

 

@bostonsportsinf

·

5m

 

 

Red Sox starting pitching thru 100 games

2019 521.1 IP - 4.79 ERA - 1.32 WHIP

163 BB - 552 K - 80 HR

 

2018 571.0 IP - 3.70 ERA - 1.21 WHIP

176 BB - 615 K - 71 HR

You worry about the bullpen, I'll worry about the starting pitching

[Kimmi]

I would bet the farm , if I had a farm , that the Sox would be in much better shape today if they still had Kimbrel and Kelly . As I said before , our current saves leader , with a grand total of seven saves , is now pitching for Pawtucket . That is absolutely terrible . I think Kimbrel already has that many in three weeks with the Cubs .

 

I would bet the farm that if our starters were performing like they did last year, we would be within 2-3 games of the division, and we would have a lot fewer blown saves, which is still a terrible stat to look at on its own.

[Bellhorn04]

Boston Sports Info

 

@bostonsportsinf

·

5m

 

 

Red Sox starting pitching thru 100 games

2019 521.1 IP - 4.79 ERA - 1.32 WHIP

163 BB - 552 K - 80 HR

 

2018 571.0 IP - 3.70 ERA - 1.21 WHIP

176 BB - 615 K - 71 HR

You worry about the bullpen, I'll worry about the starting pitching

 

Where is the bullpen comp though?

[a700hitter]

Boston Sports Info

 

@bostonsportsinf

·

5m

 

 

Red Sox starting pitching thru 100 games

2019 521.1 IP - 4.79 ERA - 1.32 WHIP

163 BB - 552 K - 80 HR

 

2018 571.0 IP - 3.70 ERA - 1.21 WHIP

176 BB - 615 K - 71 HR

You worry about the bullpen, I'll worry about the starting pitching

I am worried about Porcello and whether Cashner can stabilize the 5th spot in the order. I am not concerned about Sale, Price and ERod each who are pitching significantly better than the league average ERA for starters. Also, they are each elite talents. We just don’t have that talent in the bullpen which has nothing more than marginal major league talent. You are so fixated on arguing with me to prove me wrong that you are blind to the glaring deficit of talent in the pen.

[Kimmi]

I have no problem with oWAR. It's dWAR I have an issue with. Unfortunately dWAR bleeds over into WAR. oWAR deals in reality. Numbers. percentages. dWAR deals with someone else's perception of what a player does. When I see a dWAR value that says that JBJ's only .2 WAR better than this mythical "replacement player" (as BR's dWAR does) I'm going to challenge the formula that created the value. Maybe, just maybe, dWAR is wrong.

 

Bad news for you: oWAR also uses the 'mythical' replacement player, and it uses a similar type of assessment for base running that is used in dWAR.

 

None of this stuff is mythical and none of this stuff is not based in reality.

 

Obviously, you don't have to like it, but despite any flaws that WAR may have, it's pretty darn good.

[a700hitter]

I would bet the farm that if our starters were performing like they did last year, we would be within 2-3 games of the division, and we would have a lot fewer blown saves, which is still a terrible stat to look at on its own.

You would have to work for the new owner of your farm.

[dgalehouse]

With a pitching staff , I think it all works together. Good starters benefit the bullpen and vice versa . Ideally , you want both areas to be good.

[Kimmi]

Centerfielders are good defenders . It goes with the territory. The Sox have one of the best . No need to look any deeper into it . No need to rank them .

 

We are in rare agreement here. This nails it. I don't care where my team's players rank, I care about how they fit into the team and what they contribute to the team.

 

I also don't particularly care where my team's players rank, but when a statement is made that "The Sox have one of the best", it's going to be challenged on a baseball forum.

[Kimmi]

Agree . There are little flaws in stats and almost everything in life . That doesn't discount the value very much . Most RBIs are just that . A player who consistently gets a lot of them is doing a good job.

 

Same is true with analytics. The flaws do not discount the value very much.

[Kimmi]

Guys, I am not sure how you can watch all of the sox games and come away with JBJ being a positive defender this year. He has not been great. The position has gotten better across the league on defense and JBJ has looked old this year

 

While the numbers bear that out, I would not put a lot of stock into your opinion of JBJ looking old this year. You are as biased against JBJ as we are biased for him. I mean no offense with that statement.

[Kimmi]

There is a new wave of folks who want to revolutionize the way you look at baseball . That is where you get things like UZR and dWAR . The old , traditional stats are not only discarded , they are ridiculed. Your " eye test " is meaningless compared to the " eye test " of Jimmy Schmegge , an unemployed, recent college grad who makes a few bucks by staying up all night and ( allegedly ) watching every pitch of every game . Jimmy couldn't judge a fly ball if it was headed for his face .

 

You are choosing to ignore what has already been posted here about the scouts whose eye tests go into UZR.

[Kimmi]

But if Kimmi and Alex Speier were there, they would have given him a talk about randomness, BABip and how luck tends to even out as the samples get large enough.

 

I am honored to have my name mentioned in the same sentence as Alex Speier.

[Kimmi]

Where is the bullpen comp though?

 

Oh, it's not good either. I'm not saying that our bullpen has been great.

 

My point remains that with better starting pitching, our bullpen would not be as bad as it's been. The starters were supposed to 'carry' the bullpen, not the other way around.

[Kimmi]

I am worried about Porcello and whether Cashner can stabilize the 5th spot in the order. I am not concerned about Sale, Price and ERod each who are pitching significantly better than the league average ERA for starters. Also, they are each elite talents. We just don’t have that talent in the bullpen which has nothing more than marginal major league talent. You are so fixated on arguing with me to prove me wrong that you are blind to the glaring deficit of talent in the pen.

 

Going forward, I am not worried about our rotation either. I have said many times that our pen needs help.

 

Do you disagree that having our starters pitch better and deeper into games would help our bullpen?

[Maxbialystock]

When we get 17 runs one day and none the next, it can skew the stats. I'll grant it that there is a lot to dislike about our pitching, but we have also looked bad att the plate against so so pitching all together too often. As Cora says, they have t play better in all facets of the game.

 

Sorry. oldtimer, but all good hitting teams will have good days and bad days and those are usually driven by how good the opposing pitching is. The guy pitching for Baltimore Sunday was throwing very good stuff all game long, plus I think he may have been helped by the hot weather and the length of the two games prior--all three of those games were played in hot weather. Last night our hitters luxuriated in 72 degrees.

 

This year Betts and especially JDM are down, but Bogie and Devers and Vazquez are up to way up. Last year the Sox led MLB in scoring, but we regularly--I'm sure you were one--complained about how bad the bottom three in the order were. In other words, we are rarely fully satisfied with the hitting. Or pitching for that matter.

 

Right now Cora can go with a lineup like--Betts, Devers, Bogie, JDM, Chavez, Beni, Chavis, JBJ, and Hernandez. The three duds in that lineup would be Beni, OPS .776, Chavez, .779, and JBJ, .724. The other six are all in the .800's and .900's.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Maxbialystock