A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[jung]

Jackie Bradley Jr.'s OPS+ went from 49 in 423 plate appearances in 2014 to 119 in 255 plate appearances in 2015. Mookie Betts' OPS+ went from 108 in 2017 to 185 in 2018 to 124 this year.

 

Stats sometimes fluctuate year to year.

 

Hitting stats year to year are now basically out the window as there are too many dynamics changing in baseball primarily due to MLB manipulating the game and the very baseball itself. MLB has basically run through more pitching arms than you can shake a stick at in its velocity driven madness and thus pitchers have started a little mini revolt of their own now throwing more off speed and breaking stuff than anybody ever heard about.

 

Breaking stuff can be hard on the arm as well. But if you do not have the physical makeup or the technique to throw hard yet insist on trying, its the fastest way to wear out an arm there is. Some of the throwing motions of many of today's hard throwers must surely have the hard throwers of the past either turning in their graves or laughing their asses off. Chris Sale comes to mind as not having what you would think is a sustainable motion for throwing high velo hard stuff over time.

 

Neither Mookie nor JD hit breaking stuff particularly well just as examples of what can happen to hitters confronting an avalanche of additional breaking pitches and having their stats suffer for it.

 

Then the rocket ship baseball has not helped real power hitters all that much because they don't award more runs for "how far" you hit it. Over the fence nets you a single HR added to your total for the year. However, the weaker hitters have benefited greatly from the rocket ship. Virtually anybody that could swing a bat at all was at 13+ HR's by the ASG, laughable totals. Hence, we are on track for more HR's than ever and while the current pace has MLB hitting 6,700+ HR's this year, fully 700 more HR's than the previous high water mark of 6,105 set in 2017 now that we are in hitting season weather-wise I am inclined to think they will exceed any other year by more than 800 HR's most of them from guys that should not be generating big HR totals. On top of that nothing including the Steroid era is going to touch the four year total from 2016 (the first of this generation of rocket ship baseball) to 2019 (the new and even hotter rocket ship).

 

Result of all this nonsense entirely catalyzed by MLB manipulation: We have mass quantities of "pitchers" filling out MLB unis and rosters that never should have seen the inside of a MLB clubhouse and we have stats like "quality starts" and we have "Openers" and we have starters that can barely go 5 innings before they hit the 100 pitch mark and armies of relief pitchers. We have big HR and K totals since pitchers cannot throw with command and confidence and hitters are swinging out of their shoelaces at everything.

Edited July 16, 2019 by jung

[notin]

AL East PO's by CF'ers

 

Boston.......194

NYY...........197

TBay.........172

Tor............211

Balt...........288

 

I don't see a huge difference there. If you throw out Baltimore, whose pitching staff is going to guarantee a lot of balls hit a long way, the average of the remaining four is 193.5, exactly where Boston is. Since JBJ is essentially the only guy who plays CF for the Sox it's safe to say that he's getting about the same number of PO's as the remaining four CF's in the AL East. (which surprises me too, given that he's playing next to Mookie Freakin' Betts!)

 

Bradley is the only one playing CF in Boston, but the other teams have not had that luxury.

 

Bradley has played 737 innings in CF.

 

TB’s Kiermeier is the only other AL East CF with as many as 600 innings in centerfield, and he still has fewer innings than Bradley by about 48. But he is crushing Bradley in OOZ plays - 61 to 40. Being flanked by players like Austin Meadows and Avisail Garcia is certainly a factor. More OOZ plays in fewer innings should at the very least contribute to a better rating, right?

 

Now if Bradley was in Tampa and Kiermeier was in Boston, it’s very likely those numbers would be reversed...

[Bellhorn04]

Your joking right? You must be.

 

Nope, not joking at all.

[Bellhorn04]

Dwar can suck a D. So can war. If you want to just use stats try WAA. At least its comparing the MLB player to the MLB average. But defense war can really suck stinky feet.

Funny how the stat folk ignore WAA but cling to WAR as if it were their crying child.

 

JBJ's 2019 WAA is -0.3 per B-R. His WAR per B-R is 0.9.

 

But isn't WAA pretty much derived from WAR?

[notin]

JBJ's 2019 WAA is -0.3 per B-R. His WAR per B-R is 0.9.

 

But isn't WAA pretty much derived from WAR?

 

Different baseline, but same idea.

 

WAR is to WAA like Kelvin is to Celsius...

[Maxbialystock]

Your joking right? You must be.

 

You do realize, I hope, that Cora benched JBJ several times earlier this season because of his weak hitting, which was definitely a problem. What save him was/is that JDM is actually the 4th outfielder, but is best used as the DH.

 

Here are the current Wins Against Replacement for the top eight Sox--

 

Betts 3.7

Devers 3.4

Bogie 3.1

Vazquez 1.8

JDM 1.5

Beni 1.1

Chavis 1.1

JBJ .9

 

The top two second basemen (now that Chavis is at 1B) are Holt, .6, and Hernandez, .5.

 

I have my doubts about JBJ, would rather have him in CF than Jacoby Ellsbury--who actually isn't in anybody's CF these days. I would also rather have JBJ in CF than anyone else on the Sox. The latest WAR ratings have his .9 as tied for 16th best CF in MLB.

[Nick]

Hernandez up, Brasier sent down.

 

I love the move from perspective of we are not playing with sense of urgency.

 

We'll replace you if you're not getting it done.

[Bellhorn04]

Hernandez up, Brasier sent down.

 

I love the move from perspective of we are not playing with sense of urgency.

 

We'll replace you if you're not getting it done.

 

I think it's just shuttling guys to and from Pawtucket, Nick. Brasier pitched the last 3 in a row so he was the logical candidate to go down.

[S5Dewey]

 

I have my doubts about JBJ, would rather have him in CF than Jacoby Ellsbury--who actually isn't in anybody's CF these days. I would also rather have JBJ in CF than anyone else on the Sox. The latest WAR ratings have his .9 as tied for 16th best CF in MLB.

 

Thank you for posting this. It's exactly what I've been railing against here.

 

Even though I think most of us agree that JBJ's WAR is negatively affected by having Mookie next to him, JBJ has now been branded as being middle of the road.... because of his WAR.

 

This is the danger of using bogus statistics to describe a player.

[a700hitter]

Hernandez up, Brasier sent down.

 

I love the move from perspective of we are not playing with sense of urgency.

 

We'll replace you if you're not getting it done.

I predicted a while back that by the end of 2020 beginning of 2021 Brasier will be out of the majors or mopping up for a sub-.500 team. He is a marginal major leaguer. As of tonight, we have only 2 major league arms in our bullpen.

[notin]

I predicted a while back that by the end of 2020 beginning of 2021 Brasier will be out of the majors or mopping up for a sub-.500 team. He is a marginal major leaguer. As of tonight, we have only 2 major league arms in our bullpen.

 

While I agree he is a borderline major leaguer, I think this move was just to get fresher arms for the long run of games ahead. Brasier will be and Weber and/or Hernandez demoted at some point in the near future...

[moonslav59]

AL East PO's by CF'ers

 

Boston.......194

NYY...........197

TBay.........172

Tor............211

Balt...........288

 

I don't see a huge difference there. If you throw out Baltimore, whose pitching staff is going to guarantee a lot of balls hit a long way, the average of the remaining four is 193.5, exactly where Boston is. Since JBJ is essentially the only guy who plays CF for the Sox it's safe to say that he's getting about the same number of PO's as the remaining four CF's in the AL East. (which surprises me too, given that he's playing next to Mookie Freakin' Betts!)

 

It's not so much about the amount of plays hit to JBJ, it's about how many difficult plays he makes near or beyond the fringes of the CF zone. Betts takes some of those plaays away and the short LF wall may take away others. That's one point that notin has been making.

 

My point is about how good is the #20 best defensive CF'er in MLB? How good is #25? #30? How good is a AAAA player on defense- some AAAA may be great- some may suck on defense.

[moonslav59]

Thank you for posting this. It's exactly what I've been railing against here.

 

Even though I think most of us agree that JBJ's WAR is negatively affected by having Mookie next to him, JBJ has now been branded as being middle of the road.... because of his WAR.

 

This is the danger of using bogus statistics to describe a player.

 

He has not been "branded as being middle of the road," unless you use tiny sample sizes the makers of this metric expressly warns against using.

[notin]

He has not been "branded as being middle of the road," unless you use tiny sample sizes the makers of this metric expressly warns against using.

 

Not to mention, if JBJ is middle of the road this year, it’s because his offense was so abysmal the first 6 weeks of the season, the only comparable player (Chris Owings) in MLB was released. And Jackie’s salary and defense probably kept him from a similar fate...

[a700hitter]

While I agree he is a borderline major leaguer, I think this move was just to get fresher arms for the long run of games ahead. Brasier will be and Weber and/or Hernandez demoted at some point in the near future...

He'll be back and forth for some time but I stick by my prediction.

[moonslav59]

He'll be back and forth for some time but I stick by my prediction.

 

If I had to bet, I'd bet you are right on this one, but with the state of baseball's pens these days, you can hang on for a long time by just not sucking too often.

[a700hitter]

If I had to bet, I'd bet you are right on this one, but with the state of baseball's pens these days, you can hang on for a long time by just not sucking too often.

I leave open the possibility that he is mopping up in the pen of a sub .500 team in 2021, but he will not be at the back end of anyone's pen.

[TylerD]

What the f*** Taylor. You’re a pitcher. How do you mess that up.

[S5Dewey]

He has not been "branded as being middle of the road," unless you use tiny sample sizes the makers of this metric expressly warns against using.

 

There are 30 teams in MLB. When a poster says that he's the 16th best based on WAR... that's middle of the road. Spin at its worst.

[moonslav59]

There are 30 teams in MLB. When a poster says that he's the 16th best based on WAR... that's middle of the road. Spin at its worst.

 

It's not spin.

 

Just stop listening to someone posting half season UZR/150 numbers when even 1 full season is too small a sample size to you judge by rank.

 

That's one side of the argument.

 

The other is that JBJ may actually be playing the 16th best CF'er. (Was that the WAR or dWAR ranking?)

[moonslav59]

I leave open the possibility that he is mopping up in the pen of a sub .500 team in 2021, but he will not be at the back end of anyone's pen.

 

I agree; I'd lay 5:1 odds he's nobody's 3-4 starter by then.

Edited July 17, 2019 by moonslav59

[notin]

What the f*** Taylor. You’re a pitcher. How do you mess that up.

 

Trade him!!

[harmony]

For the first time in recent memory FanGraphs has dropped the Red Sox postseason chances below 50 percent (at 48.9):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

... while FiveThirtyEight has the Sox postseason chances at 33 percent:

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

[moonslav59]

It looks more and more like a fire sale summer, but we are not there, yet.

 

We need to start planning for it, now, though. We should not make trades to try and win in 2020, but instead 2021 and beyond. Use 2020 to reset the tax with the idea that we may go heavy in the FA market in 2021.

 

Anybody not under team control in 2021 or beyond, trade for the most we can get- preferably prospects that should be ready by 2021 or 2022, but really good ones farther away would be okay.

 

Players under team control in 2021 and beyond, look at their ages and chances of being a key to helping us contend, consider keeping or trading.

 

Sell for best return (pay 99% of salary, if needed):

Porcello

Moreland

Holt

Cashner

(Pearce if worth anything)

 

FAs after 2020 (may have higher value)

Betts

JBJ

Workman (maybe extend?)

Wright & Leon (if worth anything)

 

Special cases:

JD Martinez (back issues and age do not help his case as a key piece for 2021 and beyond)

Price (Tough call. His age says no to 2021>>)

Sale (Probably not worth trading while his stock is low. He may rebound and be a help in 2012>> or he could rebound, and we trade him while his stock is higher than now.)

Eovaldi (Trading low is not a good idea.)

 

After 2021 FAs

Pedey (contract gone)

ERod (keep)

Barnes (keep)

Hembree (Probably worth keeping, for now)

 

It's easier to just list the keepers:

Bogey

Devers

Vaz

ERod

Barnes

Maybe extend Workman

Wait it out with Sale, Eovaldi & Hembree

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Porcello is absolutely worthless right now. Something is wrong with him. I know he figured out a way to gut through 6 after giving up 4, but his stuff has declined yet his location is terrible. His breaking ball is almost unusable. It’s a cement mixer right now as he is still rolling it instead of throwing it. It lacks the downward movement a good curve has. Instead, it’s a slow lateral breaking slurve and those get hammered unless you throw them at the fringes of the zone. Rick is throwing them like there is still a bottom to them and they’re staying belt high leading to great swings from the opponents. Nobody is paying for a rental who has gotten worse going into the summer. The idea that you’re getting anything for Porcello is pure fallacy. Someone will sign him on a pillow deal in the offseason and try to get his breaking ball to work again.

 

Moreland isn’t bringing you back anything. The guy was a one trick pony before getting hurt. He comes back, lasts a game and has been out for another six weeks.

 

Holt could be a useful piece for a title contender. He might be your best trade chip as a “rental” assuming you don’t consider JDM a rental.

 

JD is the toughest case going. Will he opt out or in? If he’s in for next year, you roll with him. If he’s giving you an inkling that he’s gone, sell him now. He’d be worth a couple good prospects, although his skill set is hardly unique in today’s game. DH with power. They fetch something, but not what they used to

 

There is a reason why Cashner went to Boston for two DSL guys and Bmore even sent some cash. He’s been lucky this year and teams can see through the stats. He’s a 6 inning 4.5 ERA guy. Fine as your 5. He will be worth something, just not a lot

[jad]

This is the problem with the stat-driven "trained observers". If a ball is hit 50' to JBJ's left, he runs to the spot and waits for the ball, and another OF'er has a ball hit 50' to his left and he catches it on the run they both get credit for being able to catch up with a ball hit 50' to their left.

Statistically these two players are equal.

 

The problem isn't in the formula. It's in the stat driven "trained observers" who are more interested in accurately reporting the fact that the ball was caught than in the fact that JBJ is obviously the better player because he was waiting for the ball.

 

One commentator pointed out that this observation is deceptive. "Running to the spot and waiting" makes tracking the ball difficult; loping to the spot and tracking it at an angle is easier. Anyone who has played the outfield knows that the nightmarish hit is the one hit right at you, esp. in center field where there is generally no hook or slice. (i.e., using one's blazing speed to get to the ball and waiting for it may be counterproductive? )

[oldtimer]

Weak starting pitching, lack of depth in the BP, inconsistent hitting with RISP of late. Thes make for a team going no where. Even Cora's moves are questionable. Travis for Holt with a runner in scoring position and us in great need of a run. Taking out a hot hitter (336 and pinch hitting with a 194 hitter, just because of the lefty/righty idea?

[Bellhorn04]

I predicted a while back that by the end of 2020 beginning of 2021 Brasier will be out of the majors or mopping up for a sub-.500 team. He is a marginal major leaguer.

 

It's not exactly a super-bold prediction, considering the dude is almost 32 and had barely pitched in MLB until last year.

[Bellhorn04]

I just can't believe how bad our pitching is. That's about all I can say.

[OH FOY]

Red Sox rank 26th in MLB in winning percentage when scoring 5 runs or fewer.

25 Miami .236

26 Red Sox .217

27th Toronto .210

28th Baltimore .188

29th Royals .164

30th Seattle .153

This from BostonSportsInf

This team just cant get out of its own way.

Edited July 17, 2019 by OH FOY!