A Realistic View at 2019: Part II

[a700hitter]

Moon, he’s lawyering you. No matter what you say, he will not budge. You’ve both made your points, and while the back and forth was interesting for a while ...

If by "lawyering," you mean taking a consistent logical and well-supported position, then you would be right.

[a700hitter]

... You’ve both made your points, and while the back and forth was interesting for a while ...

 

Good point.

 

Other than Price, our starters are a roulette wheel.

 

Yes, ERod gets one or two more outs per start than before, but he had his best year in 2018. 2019 is not even close.

 

Yes, Sale has looked better than his putrid early season starts, but he is far away from his dominant self.

 

Porcello is a total mess with a few gems sprinkled into all the chaos.

 

Our 5th starter have somehow managed to have a winning record in their starts, but they have been a joke.

 

Updated after yesterday's game:

 

Updated tally after 82 games:

 

By Wins and Losses Responsibility Game by Game:

Starters 17-23 (-6)

Relievers 27-16 (+11)

 

Alternative Pitcher Scoring System:

 

+ 2 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 5 or more innings, 2.00 for 4 or less innings, 1.00 for 3 or less innings or 0.00 for 2 or less innings

 

+1 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 4.2 or less innings.

 

0 for any game where their ERA is between 3.01 and 4.50.

 

-1 for any game where their ERA is between 4.51 and 6.00.

 

-2 for any game over 6.01

 

1. L 12-4 Sale 7/3- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R -2)

2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2)

3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-2/R+2)

4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1 (S-2/R+2)

5. L 6-0 Price 4/6- Pen 2/2 (S-2/R-2)

6. L 1-0 Sale 1/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4 (S-1/R+2)

8. L 7-3 ERod 6/3.2- Pen 1/4.1 (S-2/R +2)

9. L 15-8 Porcello 7/4.2- Pen 8/3.1 (S-2/R-2)

10. W 5-4 Price 4/6- Pen 1/3 (S-1/R+1)

Sub Total: SP -14/ RP +7

 

11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6 (S+2/R+2)

12. L 7-5 Sale 5/4- Pen 2/5 (S-2/R+2)

13. W 7-6 Eovaldi 5/5- Pen 1/4 (S-2/R+2)

14. W 6-4 ERod 2/6.2- Pen 2/2.1 (S+2/-2)

15. L 9-5 Porcello 3/4- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R-2)

16. W 4-0 Price 0/7- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

17. L 8-1 Velaz 1/3- Pen 7/6 (S+1*/R-2)

18. L 8-0 Sale 4/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2)

19. L 5-3 Eovaldi 0/6- Pen 4/2 (S+2/R-2)

20. W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-1/R+2)

Sub Total: SP +0/ RP +0

 

21. W 6-5 Porcello 2/5.2- Pen 3/3.1 (S+0/R-2)

22. W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6 (S+2/R+2)

23. L 7-4 Sale 2/5- Pen 5/4 (S+2/R-2)

24. L 4-2 Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9 (S-2/R+2)

25. W 11-4 ERod 1/6- Pen 3/3 (S+2/R-2)

26. W 7-2 Porcello 3/6- Pen 0/3 (S+0/R+2)

27. L 2-1 Price 2/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/S+2)

28. L 5-2 Sale 2/7(2 unearned)- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0)

29. W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1 (S-2/R+2)

30. W 5-1 Porcello 0/8- Pen 1/1 (S+2/R-2)

Sub Total: SP +8/ RP +2

 

31. W 7-3 Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7 (S-2/R+2)

32. L 6-4 Price 3/6- Pen 2/2.1 (1 unearned) (S+0/R-2)

33. W 6-1 Sale 0/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

34. W 15-2 ERod 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

35. W 9-2 Porcello 2/6- Pen 0/3(S+2/R+2)

36. L 4-1 Smith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2 (S-2/R+2)

37. W 8-5 Velaz 2/3- Pen 3/7 (S-2/R+0)

38. W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

39. W 14-1 ERod 0/7- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0)

40. W 9-5 Porcello 4/6.2- Pen 1/2.2 (S-1/R+0)

Sub Total: SP+7/RP +8

 

41. W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

42. L 5-4 Sale 2/7- Pen 3/4 (S+2/R-2)

43. W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2)

44. L 3-1 Porcello 2/7 - Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

45. L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2 (S-2/R+2)

46. W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S+0/R+2)

47. W 12-2 Price 0/5 (2 unearned)- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2)

48. L 10-3 ERod 6/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2)

49. W 6-5 Porcello 1/6- Pen 4/7 (S+2/R+0)

50. W 8-2 Weber 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1)

Sub Total: SP +6/ RP +9

 

51. L 4-3 Sale 2/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2)

52. L 4-3 Price 0/0.2- Pen 4/7.1 (S+0*/R+1)

53. W 4-1 ERod 1/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/R+2)

54. W 12-5 Porcello 3/6.2 2 unearned- Pen 0/2.1 (S+1/R+2)

55. L 7-5 Price 0/6- Pen 7/3 (S+2/R-2)

56. L 14-9 Weber 7/4- Pen 7/5(S-2/R-2)

57. L 4-1 Sale 4/6- Pen 0/2 (S+0/R+2)

58. L 5-3 Porcello 5/4.2- Pen 0/3.1 (S-2/R+2)

59. W 8-5 Price 2/6.1- Pen 3/2.2 (S+2/R-2)

60: W8-3 KCR: ERod 2/5.2 2/ RP 1/3.1 1 (S+2/R+1)

Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +6

 

61: W 8-0 KCR: Sale 0/9.0 (S+3**)

62: W 7-5 KCR: Weber 2/1.1- Pen: 3/7.2 IP 3 (S-2/R+1)

63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 4/6 IP- Pen 1/3.0 (S+0/R+1)

64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith 4/4.0 IP- Pen 4/5.0 IP (S-2/R-2)

65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 1/6.0 IP-Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2)

66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 4/5.2- Pen 2/4.1 (S-2/R+0)

67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 0/7.0- Pen 3/4.0 (S+2/R-2)

68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3/3- Pen 5/6.0 (S-2/R-2)

69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 2/6.2-Pen 0/2.1 (S+2/R+2)

70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 6/1.1- Pen 0/7.9 (S-2/R+3**)

Sub Total: SP -1/ RP +3

 

71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 1/7- Pen 1/2.0 (S+2/R+0)

72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 2/6.0- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2)

73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 1/3.0 IP- Pen 3/7.0 (S+1/R+1)

74: W 2-0 MN: Porcell 0/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2)

75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 1/5.0- Pen 3/11.1 (S+2/R+2)

76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 4/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+0/R+2)

77. W 7-5 TOR: Sale 3/5.0- (1 unearned)/ Pen 1/5.0 (S+0/R+2)

78: L 8-7 TOR: Johnson 0/5.0- Pen 7/4.0 (S+2/R-3**)

79: L 6-1 TOR: Porcello 5/6.0- Pen 1/3.0 (S-2/R+1)

80: W6-5 CWS: ERod 5/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S-2/R+2)

Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +11

 

81: W6-3 CWS: Price 2/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2)

82: L 8-7 CWS: Sale 5/6.0-Pen 3/3.0 (S-2/R-2)

83: L 17-13 NYY: Porcello 6/0.1- Pen 11/8.2 (S-2/R-2)

84: L 12-8 NYY: ERod 2/5.1-Pen 9/3.2 (S+2/R-2)

85: W 10-6 TOR: Price 2/6.0- Pen 4/3 (S+2/R-2)

 

The pen has never been minus in any 10 game segment. The season totals after 79 games:

 

SP +22

 

RP +40

I think you missed the point of the ellipsis by the illinois.

[moonslav59]

2018 vs 2019 after 85 Games:

 

2018 ERA- 2019

18 Workman 36

38 Poyner 329

48 Kimbrel/ Brasier 71 (not on roster in 2018 @ gm 85)

54 Sale 80

58 Barnes 103

60 Velazquez 111

75 Wright 94

75 Kelly/ Brewer 88, Taylor 110 & Smith 113 (not on roster last year)

81 Porcello 106

81 Hembree 52

82 Walden 73

84 CSmith/ Weber 107 (not on roster)

92 ERod 100

96 Johnson 134

96 Price 70

152 Pom/ Eovaldi 125 (not on roster @ gm 85) & Shawaryn 178

 

Only 3 pitchers doing better.

 

Batting (after 85 games)

2018 OPS 2019

1.103 Betts .842

1.025 JD .915

.889 Moreland .859

.872 Beni .778

.831 Bogey .933

.774 Holt .764

.732 Devers .926

.726 Leon .597

.708 HRam/ Chavis .795

.637 Nunez .572

.616 JBJ .751

.563 Vaz .833

.460 Lin/ Marco .792

 

 

Edited July 3, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I think you missed the point of the ellipsis by the illinois.

 

This data not related to our debate.

[a700hitter]

This data not related to our debate.

Thanks for clarifying. Carry on.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for clarifying. Carry on.

 

You seem to be needing it a lot lately, and you're welcome.

 

 

[a700hitter]

You seem to be needing it a lot lately, and you're welcome.

 

 

Only from you.

[moonslav59]

Only from you.

 

..and Max, and...

[a700hitter]

..and Max, and...

I haven’t asked for Max to clarify anything.

[jung]

Pearce, back injury in Pawtucket...delayed another month to return. Not sure anybody should care at this point...but there it is.

[dgalehouse]

Pearce, back injury in Pawtucket...delayed another month to return. Not sure anybody should care at this point...but there it is.

 

I honestly don't think they are in a hurry to get Pearce back . It would only create a roster problem at this point . Not sure where Pearce fits in this lineup .

[Kimmi]

Yes, Max, I think it's entirely possible that Restgate has been overplayed just a wee bit.

 

The starters pitched fewer innings than normal, but they weren't entirely inactive by any means.

 

One can also dig up plenty of examples of pitchers who have had a small number of innings pitched in spring or zero innings pitched in spring and suffered no apparent ill effects.

 

The ultimate explanation might be just that there are a lot of variances and randomness in baseball that no one has ever been able to explain.

 

!!!

 

Randomness is always a huge factor in the game of baseball.

[moonslav59]

Top MLB OPS since May 20th:

 

150+ PAs

 

7. JBJ 1.057

 

8. Devers 1.056

 

12. Bogaerts 1.022

 

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Since May 1st:

 

1.002 Devers

.988 Bogey

.925 JBJ

.925 JD

.889 Vaz

.866 Holt

.801 Betts

.790 Beni

.754 Chavis

.657 Nunez

.615 Leon

[Nick]

Sox OPS Since May 1st:

 

1.002 Devers

.988 Bogey

.925 JBJ

.925 JD

.889 Vaz

.866 Holt

.801 Betts

.790 Beni

.754 Chavis

.657 Nunez

.615 Leon

 

Porcello should ask to bat for himself.

[vegasbob]

I honestly don't think they are in a hurry to get Pearce back . It would only create a roster problem at this point . Not sure where Pearce fits in this lineup .

 

Pearce is done. Colossal waste of money. He will now miss the trade deadline, although I doubt any contender I know needed or wanted him. Put him on the 60 day IL .

[Swiharts Ghost]

Pearce, back injury in Pawtucket...delayed another month to return. Not sure anybody should care at this point...but there it is.

 

Oh I give a s*** because like I've been begging for a bat .We need a power Bat badly not against the torontos but definetly against the Rays and Yankees and Astros .

[moonslav59]

Power bat is like 10th on my list.

 

What position and what player do you have in mind?

[OH FOY]

I like Steve Pearce, sorry he's hurting. He was my vote for MVP in WS last year over Price. Got HUGE hits, to help Sox win it. Games 4+5 7 RBI's, to seal the deal.

In that WS Pearce got 5, 2 out RBI's. That's the Clutch we miss.

Edited July 3, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

I haven’t asked for Max to clarify anything.

 

Yeah, Sale looks like he's pitching to his norm... NOT!

 

Please clarify.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, Sale looks like he's pitching to his norm... NOT!

 

Please clarify.

Give it to the end of the season. And then we can revisit.

[devildavid]

I disagree. I think that Sale and Price are and will continue perform to expectations and career norms for the remainder of the season. I think ERod is having a better than career norm season. He's going deeper into games more often than last year, and I think his other numbers will fall into career norms or better.

 

We have taken this about as far as it can go. We can revisit my projection at the end of the season to see if I was right.

 

In the meantime, there are glaring needs in the bullpen whether or not Eovaldi closes, and if Eovaldi closes, we have a rotation hole that needs to be filed. We also need Cora to stop clinging to certain lineups that are not producing. It took forever for him to move Devers to the top of the order and drop Beni to the bottom half. Unless Betts finds some consistency soon, he needs to go down in the order too.

 

What evidence suggests that Sale is pitching to expectations and career norms?

[Swiharts Ghost]

Power bat is like 10th on my list.

 

What position and what player do you have in mind?

 

On the cheap Renfroe or Lomo only on the cheap .

[a700hitter]

What evidence suggests that Sale is pitching to expectations and career norms?

i stated it in earlier posts. Obviously, it didn’t take into account tonight’s performance.

[Swiharts Ghost]

Sale needs to be auctioned off NOW !!!! Rebuild NOW

[devildavid]

i stated it in earlier posts. Obviously, it didn’t take into account tonight’s performance.

 

can you give me the post numbers?

[devildavid]

Are you serious, or do you just like being disagreeable? It is not a productive out when it's the ninth inning. If you don't get that , you don't understand the game either .

 

It is a productive out in any inning.

[devildavid]

With 1 out and a man on third, being down 5 runs in the 9th inning, getting on base is paramount. Getting the guy in from 3rd with an out is meaningless, except for padding stats.

 

Scoring runs is meaningless?

[devildavid]

Absolutely. You only had two outs left . Now you have one . The Sox would gladly trade an out for a run in that situation.

 

It's much better result than a nonproductive out, which the Sox would gladly trade for.

[a700hitter]

can you give me the post numbers?

#106 #122