The Pen

[kenmeister]

As I said, you may have to get used to it!

 

I have to confess I’m secretly hoping Thornburg flames out so that Velazquez makes the team.

[Bellhorn04]

I have to confess I’m secretly hoping Thornburg flames out so that Velazquez makes the team.

 

It's no longer a secret.

[kenmeister]

It's no longer a secret.

 

[S5Dewey]

It's no longer a secret.

 

WHAT?? Are you saying that everyone can see what's posted on line??

 

OMG!!

 

The next thing I'm going to be told is that it stays there forever!

 

[harmony]

That number includes the starts by Johnson, Velasquez, Pomeranz, etc. that actually totaled about 1/4 of the Sox games. While we all expect some starts from the depth starters, do you still think it’s going to be around 25% again?

Nathan Eovaldi virtually replaced Drew Pomeranz in the starting rotation last year with Eovaldi making his first start for the Red Sox on July 29 and Pomeranz his last start on August 7.

 

Outside of Pomeranz, Eovaldi and the Big Four, the Red Sox got only 25 starts from Brian Johnson, Hector Velazquez and Steven Wright for only 15.4 percent of the starts.

 

Steamer optimistically projects Chris Sale with 32 starts in 202 innings, David Price 32 in 194, Rick Porcello 32 in 191, Eovaldi 28 in 152 and Eduardo Rodriguez 24 in 136. Velazquez comes in at three and 67, Wright three and 69, and Johnson three and 18.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=6,d

 

On the other hand, Marcel projects Sale with only 161 innings, Price 153, Porcello 176, Eovaldi 113 and Rodriguez 135. Johnson, Velazquez, Erasmo Ramirez and Wright are not far behind with 91, 77, 75 and 71 innings:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-projections.shtml

 

Many teams will get at least 25 percent of their starts from pitchers not among the preseason projected Starting Five. The Red Sox could be one of those clubs.

[BillyWilliams]

My thought is the pen won't be as bad as jacko predicts but also won't be as good as some sox fans claim it will be......

[Slasher9]

My thought is the pen won't be as bad as jacko predicts but also won't be as good as some sox fans claim it will be......

 

will the difference be 8 games?

[notin]

My thought is the pen won't be as bad as jacko predicts but also won't be as good as some sox fans claim it will be......

 

 

It’s not like the Sox bullpen was so great last year. It ranked 9th in MLB and 6th the AL with 4.9 fWAR...

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not like the Sox bullpen was so great last year. It ranked 9th in MLB and 6th the AL with 4.9 fWAR...

 

Were the Yankees 2018 Bullpen Champs?

[Slasher9]

It’s not like the Sox bullpen was so great last year. It ranked 9th in MLB and 6th the AL with 4.9 fWAR...

 

lol. BOOM.

[Kimmi]

As I said, you may have to get used to it!

 

Meh. As several people have said, if the Sox fail to make the playoffs, it won't be because of our bullpen.

[notin]

Were the Yankees 2018 Bullpen Champs?

 

 

Yes. 1st in MLB. They had a parade for that, right?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes. 1st in MLB. They had a parade for that, right?

 

They have a good chance at going back-to-back, too.

[moonslav59]

Spring stats don’t matter. I am puzzled, though, as to why most here think the Sox are going to have a good pen. You’ve got guys with devastating injuries with no idea how they’d return (Thorburg). Players with no track record coming off a good 3 months (Brasier). Players with a long track record of crap performance (Hembree). You’ve got a good reliever elevating to a new role he hasn’t proven he can handle (Barnes). How in the world are you all expecting good things out of this universally panned pen squad? It’s not like your rotation is the 2005 White Sox. The average IP for your starters per start last year was around 5.6. That means you’re pen, on average, needs to get 10 outs per game. Outside of blind hometown, put something out there that shows this squad can be held together enough to not slip significantly in the standings

 

1) With better health from Sale, ERod and a full season from Eovaldi, our rotation should pitch more innings than last year.

2) While small sample sizes are not great indicators of future performance, it does not mean they are worthless or can't hint at what is possible.

3) Hembree's ERA and BB/9 spiked last year. Maybe he goes back to who he was before or even gets better.

4) You never mentioned Barnes, who has seen his numbers improve for 3 straight years.

5) Thornburg was pretty damn good before the injury. Players have come back from injuries.

 

I think, if you look at each of our RP'ers in isolation, maybe it looks pretty bad. I get that, but many have significant chances of doing well or decent enough to not drag down the team. We may only need 4-5 pitchers from the long list to do well enough to carry us to the deadline.

 

I remember, last March, myself and others saying our pen was our weakest area, and yet they carried us, at times, and ended up around top 10 or 12 in MLB, when all was said aqnd done.

 

It's not blind homerism to see a full year from Eovaldi, Pearce, Brasier and maybe Pedey could easily make up for losing Kimbrel.

 

[harmony]

The San Diego Padres reportedly sign reliever Adam Warren for a guaranteed $2.5 million:

 

 

Edited March 1, 2019 by harmony

[moonslav59]

The San Diego Padres reportedly sign reliever Adam Warren for a guaranteed $2.5 million:

 

 

 

This was one guy I liked.

[harmony]

This was one guy I liked.

I had hoped the Seattle Mariners would re-sign Adam Warren.

[notin]

This was one guy I liked.

 

Ryan Madson is still available...

[harmony]

Ryan Madson is still available...

Does 38-year-old Ryan Madson have any game left?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/madsory01.shtml

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1852&position=P

 

Madson could be a decent buy-low candidate coming off a season with an ERA of 5.47 in 52.2 innings.

[moonslav59]

Ryan Madson is still available...

 

Pass

[notin]

Pass

 

 

We do have worse pitchers in the bullpen

[moonslav59]

We do have worse pitchers in the bullpen

 

Maybe-probably, but with just so much budget space, I think we can do better in July- more bang for the buck.

 

Like Reed in 2017 or Eovaldi in 2018.

[Kimmi]

Maybe-probably, but with just so much budget space, I think we can do better in July- more bang for the buck.

 

Like Reed in 2017 or Eovaldi in 2018.

 

IMO, unless there is a glaring hole, or a deal comes along that you just can't pass us, it is usually better to wait a few months into the season, then re-assess. Our team looks really good. Our bullpen might end up being surprisingly good. It might turn out that we need a SP or a 1B rather than a reliever. We'll have a better idea in July.

[Bellhorn04]

IMO, unless there is a glaring hole, or a deal comes along that you just can't pass us, it is usually better to wait a few months into the season, then re-assess. Our team looks really good. Our bullpen might end up being surprisingly good. It might turn out that we need a SP or a 1B rather than a reliever. We'll have a better idea in July.

 

It's going to be interesting to see what happens, though, if our pen struggles badly out of the gate. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's thinking that dark little thought.

[Kimmi]

It's going to be interesting to see what happens, though, if our pen struggles badly out of the gate. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's thinking that dark little thought.

 

Yes, that will be interesting. I hope that's not the case.

 

I remember all too well our opening game last year against the Rays.

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, that will be interesting. I hope that's not the case.

 

I remember all too well our opening game last year against the Rays.

 

That was just one bad game as it turned out, fortunately. Imagine what will happen if the pen blows 2 games the first week of the season.

[moonslav59]

IMO, unless there is a glaring hole, or a deal comes along that you just can't pass us, it is usually better to wait a few months into the season, then re-assess. Our team looks really good. Our bullpen might end up being surprisingly good. It might turn out that we need a SP or a 1B rather than a reliever. We'll have a better idea in July.

 

Exactly, and by waiting until July, we may be able to fill two holes not one.

[dgalehouse]

That was just one bad game as it turned out, fortunately. Imagine what will happen if the pen blows 2 games the first week of the season.

 

Not to worry. According to Mark Wohlers , a poor reliever will only blow three more games than an elite one . So , if we do blow two games in the first week , we will have pretty much gotten that out of the way early . Probably only one more to go the rest of the way . We should be okay with that .

[vegasbob]

Yes, that will be interesting. I hope that's not the case.

 

I remember all too well our opening game last year against the Rays.

 

Opening Day 2018 made it hard to imagine the subsequent 17-1 run. On that note Joe Kelly made his first appearance as a Dodger this week. Gave up a run, hit, 2 walks and 2 wild pitches in one inning. Afterwards in the clubhouse he declared himself fully ready for the season !

[jacksonianmarch]

IMO, unless there is a glaring hole, or a deal comes along that you just can't pass us, it is usually better to wait a few months into the season, then re-assess. Our team looks really good. Our bullpen might end up being surprisingly good. It might turn out that we need a SP or a 1B rather than a reliever. We'll have a better idea in July.

 

Your bullpen might be surprisingly good? I guess there's always a chance, but you and I both know the chances are infinitesimally small