2019 Starting Pitching thread

[Dojji]

As our rotation appears to be written in ink at this point I feel this is a good time to kick off a thread specifically talking about this aspect of the team.

 

We have a very good 5 man rotation on paper

 

Sale

Price

Porky

E-Rod

Eovaldi

 

That's good. That's super good. That's "3 different Cy Young winners and 2 young power arms behind them" good.

 

With Johnson and potentially Wright (if he ever gets healthy) in the wings and a couple further depth options behind them, particularly Mike Shawaryn and Darwinzon Hernandez, who is on the horizon having finished last year in AA. Darwinzon is a good year in AA/AAA from putting himself in the pitching picture, and he was recently put on the 40 man, so don't sleep on him.

 

We ought to be alight for SP depth, unless crap really hits the fan.

 

Remembering that Eovaldi is the 4th or 5th guy and signed to what in this market is a pretty reasonable deal takes the edge off any concerns about his performance level. He has ace type stuff but he does not HAVE to be an ace to be worth what he is being paid.

 

Rough ERA levels and IP I'd expect and be satisfied with for each slot:

 

Sale: 2.90, 175IP

Price 3.25, 190 IP

Porcello 3.75, 200IP

E-Rod 3.90 150 IP

Eovaldi: 4.25, 160IP

 

I suspect our depth will be tested due to the durability issues of Sale, E-Rod, and Eovaldi, but I think each pitcher can achieve those marks, and if they do, the Red Sox will win a lot of games

Edited December 7, 2018 by Dojji

[harmony]

For what it's worth, Steamer has the following 2019 projections for Red Sox starters:

 

Chris Sale, 32 GS, 202 IP, 2.76 ERA, 6.6 WAR

David Price, 32 GS, 194 IP, 3.94 ERA, 3.5 WAR

Nathan Eovaldi, 29 GS, 152 IP, 3.89 ERA, 2.8 WAR

Rick Porcello, 32 GS, 191 IP, 4.24 ERA, 2.6 WAR

Eduardo Rodriguez, 19 GS, 136 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.9 WAR

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, Steamer has the following 2019 projections for Red Sox starters:

 

Chris Sale, 32 GS, 202 IP, 2.76 ERA, 6.6 WAR

David Price, 32 GS, 194 IP, 3.94 ERA, 3.5 WAR

Nathan Eovaldi, 29 GS, 152 IP, 3.89 ERA, 2.8 WAR

Rick Porcello, 32 GS, 191 IP, 4.24 ERA, 2.6 WAR

Eduardo Rodriguez, 19 GS, 136 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.9 WAR

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d

 

I think these are better than our 2018 pre-season projections.

[moonslav59]

Steamer SP'ers

 

BOS

6.6 Sale

3.1 Price

2.7 Eovaldi

2.6 Porcello

1.9 ERod

 

HOU

5.1 Verlander

4.5 G Cole

2.2 J James

1.1 Peacock

 

NYY

4.5 Severino

4.0 Paxton

(3.3 Happ?

2.6 Tanaka)

1.4 CC Sab

0.6 Gray

 

CLE

4.8 Kluber

4.5 Carrasco

4.0 Bauer

2.6 Clevinger

2.2 Bieber

 

Cleveland will likely trade a pitcher, but they are the only team with 3 guys over 4.0 and 5 guys over 2.0. (We have 5 over 1.9 and are the only other AL team with 4 guys over 2.0.)

 

Edited December 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[Kimmi]

Our rotation looks very good, provided good health.

 

I hope Dave does some dumpster diving for some depth.

 

We need more, IMO.

 

Clay Buchholz anyone?

[Kimmi]

From Red Sox Stats

 

The Red Sox went into last season ranked 6th with 48.0 projected WAR on their roster. After the Eovaldi signing they currently rank 1st with 50.7 projected WAR for next year.

[Dojji]

Our rotation looks very good, provided good health.

 

I hope Dave does some dumpster diving for some depth.

 

We need more, IMO.

 

Clay Buchholz anyone?

 

GOD NO.

 

If Wright starts the year in the minors on rehab, we're good for depth with Wright, Johnson, Shawaryn and possibly Hernandez. How much depth do you need?

[Kimmi]

GOD NO.

 

If Wright starts the year in the minors on rehab, we're good for depth with Wright, Johnson, Shawaryn and possibly Hernandez. How much depth do you need?

 

More than 3 or 4.

 

Take a look at how many starters teams typically use in a regular season. We have several on our list of starters who are questionable health-wise.

[Northern Star]

GOD NO.

 

If Wright starts the year in the minors on rehab, we're good for depth with Wright, Johnson, Shawaryn and possibly Hernandez. How much depth do you need?

 

You can never have enough pitching. But I don't want Buchholz back.

[notin]

GOD NO.

 

If Wright starts the year in the minors on rehab, we're good for depth with Wright, Johnson, Shawaryn and possibly Hernandez. How much depth do you need?

 

I’ll tell you how much depth you need right after you tell me how many injuries the Sox are going to have.

 

Considering we have Eovaldi, ERod, Sale and Price in the rotation, I wouldn’t aim tooow with the prediction...

[moonslav59]

Last winter, many felt we need more starter depth, and as it turned out, we did, when we went out and got Eovaldi.

 

Now, we don't have Pom but have Eovaldi.

 

I think we give Wright, Johnson and Velazquez a look (maybe Shawaryn, if he's doing well in AAA), and if they don'y work, DD goes looking again. Maybe he finds the next Eovaldi for peanuts.

 

Right now, we need to focus attention on the pen. The rest can wait to mid season.

 

[fxkatt]

Our starting five have questions about injury/health. The depth has questions about performance. I think Wright is the wild card here. If he's well and on, then what we have now might be enough. If not, we may have to look elsewhere for that 6th man. And even for a 7th if we have poor injury luck.

[notin]

Last winter, many felt we need more starter depth, and as it turned out, we did, when we went out and got Eovaldi.

 

Now, we don't have Pom but have Eovaldi.

 

I think we give Wright, Johnson and Velazquez a look (maybe Shawaryn, if he's doing well in AAA), and if they don'y work, DD goes looking again. Maybe he finds the next Eovaldi for peanuts.

 

Right now, we need to focus attention on the pen. The rest can wait to mid season.

 

 

Minor league contracts are compatibly free. And it’s not like DD is the only guy in the front office. The guy has an Assistant GM, right?

[notin]

Our starting five have questions about injury/health. The depth has questions about performance. I think Wright is the wild card here. If he's well and on, then what we have now might be enough. If not, we may have to look elsewhere for that 6th man. And even for a 7th if we have poor injury luck.

 

Most teams use about 10 starting pitchers every year...

[Dojji]

The only pitchers on last year's roster who took starts that aren't on the roster this year are Jalen Beeks and Drew Pomeranz. If we assume that we can survive without those two pitchers, we're ok.

 

We already have one new starter in the pipeline who wasn't in the picture last year -- Mike Shawaryn. We also have Wright and Johnson in the wings. And that's before any potential in season moves to shore up our SP depth.

 

We do not need to make SP a major offseason priority. The kind of injury wave that would destroy this rotation would probably destroy this rotation plus 1 or 2 more mediocre AAAA guys. At a certain point you do have to trust things to work.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Dojji

[Larry Cook]

The more depth the better.

 

I don’t think we are done being tortured by sale’s shoulder.

 

I think 32 games started is extremely aggressive for sale for 2019.

[moonslav59]

Minor league contracts are compatibly free. And it’s not like DD is the only guy in the front office. The guy has an Assistant GM, right?

 

I'm fine with several minor league deals, just not broken Clay pigeons.

[moonslav59]

Most teams use about 10 starting pitchers every year...

 

Yes, and we used 11, although Beeks and Cuevas got only 1.

 

It's interesting how this year we had 8 starters with over 8 starts, and one wasn't Wright. Look at our other ring years:

 

2004: Only 5 starters with more than 3 starts!

 

2007: Only 6 starters over 7 starts.

 

2013: Only 6 starters over 7 starts

 

 

 

[S5Dewey]

I'm fine with several minor league deals, just not broken Clay pigeons.

 

I still don't understand the hate. If it were anyone else who's averaged over 100 IP over the past 7 seasons and has a career ERA

 

As I opined a couple of months ago, if he'd change his name even his critics would love to have him.

[cp176]

I haven't heard one word about Buchholtz this off season. Has anyone shown any interest in him at all? I would be very surprised that he would consider signing an extremely cheap minor league contract that he would not sign it. If that were the case, I would think that teams would be falling all over themselves to sign him. Maybe I have missed something but the fact that he hasn't already signed by somebody makes me wonder why not? If he is willing to play for a dollar in an effort to show that he can still play, I say sure give him a shot.

[Fisk]

I haven't heard one word about Buchholtz this off season. Has anyone shown any interest in him at all? I would be very surprised that he would consider signing an extremely cheap minor league contract that he would not sign it. If that were the case, I would think that teams would be falling all over themselves to sign him. Maybe I have missed something but the fact that he hasn't already signed by somebody makes me wonder why not? If he is willing to play for a dollar in an effort to show that he can still play, I say sure give him a shot.

Just read an article that the A’s are after him. A great park for him to pitch in.

[Kimmi]

Last winter, many felt we need more starter depth, and as it turned out, we did, when we went out and got Eovaldi.

 

Now, we don't have Pom but have Eovaldi.

 

I think we give Wright, Johnson and Velazquez a look (maybe Shawaryn, if he's doing well in AAA), and if they don'y work, DD goes looking again. Maybe he finds the next Eovaldi for peanuts.

 

Right now, we need to focus attention on the pen. The rest can wait to mid season.

 

 

Obviously, the pen is our priority over finding depth starters, but there's no reason why Dombrowski can't do both at the same time. The depth guys will be minor league contracts and will cost virtually nothing.

[Kimmi]

Most teams use about 10 starting pitchers every year...

 

Many teams use more.

[Kimmi]

The only pitchers on last year's roster who took starts that aren't on the roster this year are Jalen Beeks and Drew Pomeranz. If we assume that we can survive without those two pitchers, we're ok.

 

We already have one new starter in the pipeline who wasn't in the picture last year -- Mike Shawaryn. We also have Wright and Johnson in the wings. And that's before any potential in season moves to shore up our SP depth.

 

We do not need to make SP a major offseason priority. The kind of injury wave that would destroy this rotation would probably destroy this rotation plus 1 or 2 more mediocre AAAA guys. At a certain point you do have to trust things to work.

 

Nobody said anything about making it a priority. Signing depth guys to minor league contracts is never a priority, but it should be something that is continually on the FO's radar. It's not something that would in any way hinder whatever else the team is trying to do.

 

I don't get why some people are so opposed to signing a starter to a minor league contract. The move is virtually risk free, and there is potential for some pretty good reward.

[Kimmi]

I'm fine with several minor league deals, just not broken Clay pigeons.

 

Why not Clay? What's the risk?

[Kimmi]

I still don't understand the hate. If it were anyone else who's averaged over 100 IP over the past 7 seasons and has a career ERA

 

As I opined a couple of months ago, if he'd change his name even his critics would love to have him.

 

Amen.

[notin]

I'm fine with several minor league deals, just not broken Clay pigeons.

 

Exactly what type of pitchers do you think we can get on minor league deals?

[notin]

I don't get why some people are so opposed to signing a starter to a minor league contract. The move is virtually risk free, and there is potential for some pretty good reward.

 

Because they believe or rationalize that Dombrowski’s alone in the Sox front office and doesn’t own a cell phone so if he signs players to minor league deals he can only do so by ignoring larger priorities.

[Dojji]

Why not Clay? What's the risk?

 

The same risk there always is with Clay. Clay Buchholz is proof positive that living, breathing humans can actually be illusions.

[Bellhorn04]

The same risk there always is with Clay. Clay Buchholz is proof positive that living, breathing humans can actually be illusions.

 

Say what you want, he's better than any pitcher that will be signed to a minor league deal this year.