I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second

[notin]

Johnson will be important - the way he was important this year. You need guys like him to get through the 162 game marathon. I wouldn't pay a ton for him - the ceiling is modest - but I respect what he brings to the party.

 

 

He’s ok and a little more important now that Wright is questionable. But finding pitchers who can pitch like Johnson isn’t the most difficult task. And finding one with an option left would be better...

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester has out-WAR’d Porcello 13.7 to 11.5 since Porcello came to Boston. Who knows, maybe if you still had Lester, you have 2 rings? Clearly, I like Porcello’s chances over the next 3 seasons compared to Lester’s, but Lester outperformed Rick in the first four years of the deal.

[kenmeister]

My opinion is that Johnson is a mediocre MLB pitcher with below average stuff, below average control and a horrendous pickoff move. He should only be used in an emergency. Not too valuable.

 

Curious about your thoughts on Hector Velazquez.

[Kimmi]

For a long while I looked at it that Ben basically traded Lester for Porcello, and I wasn't happy about it. It's taken me a long time to warm up to Porcello. But in 2018 he showed us a lot in every way, and he became part of Red Sox history. So it's time to say it...

 

Thanks Ben!

 

I never liked not being able to extend Lester before he hit free agency, but once he was gone, I absolutely loved the Porcello deal. At times it's been hard to defend the deal, but IMO, it was a good deal to make at the time.

 

Thanks Ben!

[Kimmi]

Lester 1 ring

Porcello 1 ring

 

Porcello's ring > Lester's ring.

[Kimmi]

Lester has out-WAR’d Porcello 13.7 to 11.5 since Porcello came to Boston. Who knows, maybe if you still had Lester, you have 2 rings? Clearly, I like Porcello’s chances over the next 3 seasons compared to Lester’s, but Lester outperformed Rick in the first four years of the deal.

 

Lester also cost considerably more than Porcello.

 

I think the Sox FO screwed up big time in their negotiations with Lester, but once Lester became a free agent, I did not think it was a good idea for the Sox to try to top the Cubs offer.

[notin]

Johnson will be important - the way he was important this year. You need guys like him to get through the 162 game marathon. I wouldn't pay a ton for him - the ceiling is modest - but I respect what he brings to the party.

 

Curious about your thoughts on Hector Velazquez.

 

A better right-handed version of Johnson with options left...

[sk7326]

Lester has out-WAR’d Porcello 13.7 to 11.5 since Porcello came to Boston. Who knows, maybe if you still had Lester, you have 2 rings? Clearly, I like Porcello’s chances over the next 3 seasons compared to Lester’s, but Lester outperformed Rick in the first four years of the deal.

 

Maybe, maybe not. If Cleveland holds the fort for a couple of innings, maybe the Cubs have zero rings - that's baseball. As Kimmi said, once Lester left, the Porcello deal has been fine. Now it has not been a "STEAL" at the price ... but it has not been a ripoff either.

[Larry Cook]

Let’s not make Johnson something he is not. He is depth. A spot starter/long lefty reliever.

 

He has proven very valuable in that spot and until he develops an out pitch, will never be anything more than that.

 

Right now he should be working my on a splitter or cutter that can generate more swings and misses, because his current pitches only work if his control is exceptional.

[oldtimer]

I am reading Skip Lockwood's book "Insight Pitch". He was a highly touted rookie who couldn't hit the curve ball and switched to pitching. He came in before FA so dealt with the Standard Baseball Contract. How things have changed. He did become a closer and a pretty good one. One takeaway from the book is how his state of mind impacted his play. On this site we talk about stats, but the pressure on players and how they adapt to it have a major impact on performance. Chages in performance can come suddenly as they did for him.

[moonslav59]

I am reading Skip Lockwood's book "Insight Pitch". He was a highly touted rookie who couldn't hit the curve ball and switched to pitching. He came in before FA so dealt with the Standard Baseball Contract. How things have changed. He did become a closer and a pretty good one. One takeaway from the book is how his state of mind impacted his play. On this site we talk about stats, but the pressure on players and how they adapt to it have a major impact on performance. Chages in performance can come suddenly as they did for him.

 

To even make it to the bigs, one has to have a certain state of mind, unless you are extremely gifted.

[notin]

To even make it to the bigs, one has to have a certain state of mind, unless you are extremely gifted.

 

I would think most if not all MLB players have more confidence than any of us can conceive of a person having and it isn’t shattered as easily as many believe...

[moonslav59]

I would think most if not all MLB players have more confidence than any of us can conceive of a person having and it isn’t shattered as easily as many believe...

 

Agreed.

 

Though, rarely it does happen.

[Bellhorn04]

I would think most if not all MLB players have more confidence than any of us can conceive of a person having and it isn’t shattered as easily as many believe...

 

On the other hand, many MLB careers are very short. If you include the whole population of guys who play even a few MLB games, obviously a lot of them have had their confidence to play at the highest level destroyed.

[notin]

On the other hand, many MLB careers are very short. If you include the whole population of guys who play even a few MLB games, obviously a lot of them have had their confidence to play at the highest level destroyed.

 

The average length of an MLB careeer is less than one season. But then that’s why teams like the Long Island Ducks and Sugarland Skeeters exist - to fill their rosters with players who think they can capitalize on just one more chance...

[Bellhorn04]

The average length of an MLB careeer is less than one season. But then that’s why teams like the Long Island Ducks and Sugarland Skeeters exist - to fill their rosters with players who think they can capitalize on just one more chance...

 

Most of whom will have their hopes and dreams shattered...that's what I'm saying.

 

It's all relative, really.

 

Guys like Trout and Mookie obviously have all the confidence in the world. But the further down the totem pole you go, the more of a struggle it is.

[notin]

Most of whom will have their hopes and dreams shattered...that's what I'm saying.

 

It's all relative, really.

 

Guys like Trout and Mookie obviously have all the confidence in the world. But the further down the totem pole you go, the more of a struggle it is.

 

Do they really see their dreams as shattered?

 

I bet the Northern League is filled with guys who look at Daniel Nava as an inspiration...

[Bellhorn04]

Do they really see their dreams as shattered?

 

What do you call it when you realize without a doubt that you're just not good enough to play in the majors?

 

I would imagine the response varies a lot from one individual to the other. Some can accept it and play in the minors or move on to making a living some other way. For some I would think it's pretty tough.

[S5Dewey]

Two words: Dan Butler.

 

Butler is 32 years old, has been up for a cup of coffee several times and has been unable to stick. In 2018 the Sox non-tendered him making him a free agent and nobody bit on him. Then he signed a Mil FA contract with the Pawsox.

 

He's pretty much the Red Sox equivalent of Crash Davis. If he still thinks he has what it takes to play MLB he needs glasses because he can't see the writing on the wall.

 

It's not my intent to run Butler down. I have a lot of respect for the guy. He's living the dream, playing baseball and getting paid for it. In fact, I'm a bit envious.

[S5Dewey]

What do you call it when you realize without a doubt that you're just not good enough to play in the majors?

 

I would imagine the response varies a lot from one individual to the other. Some can accept it and play in the minors or move on to making a living some other way. For some I would think it's pretty tough.

 

I once dated a woman whose first husband played AA ball in the Cubs organization. She was set to go out and be with him when he called and said he'd been released. She said he came home and just hung around being depressed. It almost ruined their marriage. Eventually he went back to school and got a job but his life mirrored Bruce Springsteen's Glory Days.

Edited November 20, 2018 by S5Dewey

[Bellhorn04]

I once dated a woman whose first husband played AA ball in the Cubs organization. She was set to go out and be with him when he called and said he'd been released. She said he came home and just hung around being depressed. It almost ruined their marriage. Eventually he went back to school and got a job but his life mirrored Bruce Springsteen's Glory Days.

 

There you go - the two sides of the coin, with Butler and this guy.

[notin]

Two words: Dan Butler.

 

Butler is 32 years old, has been up for a cup of coffee several times and has been unable to stick. In 2018 the Sox non-tendered him making him a free agent and nobody bit on him. Then he signed a Mil FA contract with the Pawsox.

 

He's pretty much the Red Sox equivalent of Crash Davis. If he still thinks he has what it takes to play MLB he needs glasses because he can't see the writing on the wall.

 

It's not my intent to run Butler down. I have a lot of respect for the guy. He's living the dream, playing baseball and getting paid for it. In fact, I'm a bit envious.

 

But Butler did play in the majors. I look at guys like him and Bobby Scales and think they did make it. For every Butler who pops in and out, there are hundreds who never get that far..,

[kenmeister]

But Butler did play in the majors. I look at guys like him and Bobby Scales and think they did make it. For every Butler who pops in and out, there are hundreds who never get that far..,

 

I love the appeal of these guys who come up to the majors, have a short period of success, and then are never seen again. Juan Pena. Ryan Lavarnway. Kason Gabbard. Creighton Gubanich. Izzy Alcantara. Great stories! Is Brian Johnson a Brian Rose or a Carl Pavano? We'll find out...

[Dojji]

I think it's fair to be a little more optimistic about Johnson relative to the Kason Gabbards of the world. Personally I think Johnson would be in the rotation of all but a handful of MLB teams right now, low cost guys who can pitch roughly average innings and pull down a few quality starts are what the bottom of the rotation is all about.

 

Look around and count the number of teams whose 5th starter is worse than Brian Johnson. If that number isn't at least 24 I'll eat my Red Sox cap.

 

Brian Johnson has looked exactly average so far over his big league career. Putting and average starter for the 5th spot is a sign you're doing things right, if you can actually afford to stash that guy in the minors, you probably have a great rotation.

 

Kason Gabbard himself I remember as kind of a sad story. Guy was making a good try at securing a big league career for himself when his elbow blew out. I loved Gabbard, he debuted on my birthday so I followed him after that. He was a bright spot in the terrible second half of the 2006 season and he put up some good performances in 07 before he was traded. He had a chance to make it.

Edited November 20, 2018 by Dojji

[notin]

I think it's fair to be a little more optimistic about Johnson relative to the Kason Gabbards of the world. Personally I think Johnson would be in the rotation of all but a handful of MLB teams right now, low cost guys who can pitch roughly average innings and pull down a few quality starts are what the bottom of the rotation is all about.

 

Look around and count the number of teams whose 5th starter is worse than Brian Johnson. If that number isn't at least 24 I'll eat my Red Sox cap.

 

Brian Johnson has looked exactly average so far over his big league career. Putting and average starter for the 5th spot is a sign you're doing things right, if you can actually afford to stash that guy in the minors, you probably have a great rotation.

 

Kason Gabbard himself I remember as kind of a sad story. Guy was making a good try at securing a big league career for himself when his elbow blew out. I loved Gabbard, he debuted on my birthday so I followed him after that. He was a bright spot in the terrible second half of the 2006 season and he put up some good performances in 07 before he was traded. He had a chance to make it.

 

I think Gabbard was the winning pitcher in a game where the Rangers scored like 33 runs for one of the highest (if not the highest) scores in MLB history.

 

Hey, baseball trivia is it’s own legacy. Just ask Francisco Cabrera...

[moonslav59]

I think it's fair to be a little more optimistic about Johnson relative to the Kason Gabbards of the world. Personally I think Johnson would be in the rotation of all but a handful of MLB teams right now, low cost guys who can pitch roughly average innings and pull down a few quality starts are what the bottom of the rotation is all about.

 

Look around and count the number of teams whose 5th starter is worse than Brian Johnson. If that number isn't at least 24 I'll eat my Red Sox cap.

 

Brian Johnson has looked exactly average so far over his big league career. Putting and average starter for the 5th spot is a sign you're doing things right, if you can actually afford to stash that guy in the minors, you probably have a great rotation.

 

Kason Gabbard himself I remember as kind of a sad story. Guy was making a good try at securing a big league career for himself when his elbow blew out. I loved Gabbard, he debuted on my birthday so I followed him after that. He was a bright spot in the terrible second half of the 2006 season and he put up some good performances in 07 before he was traded. He had a chance to make it.

 

Johnson started just 13 games for us this year and had 60.2 IP'd as a starter.

 

His ERA as a starter was 4.15 (slightly better than as a RP'er but his WHIP was pretty ugly at 1.451. I'm really not so sure he'd win a starting role on even half the teams in MLB, if he puts up those numbers next year. Sure, there are teams with holes in their rotations that he'd have a good shot at making the rotation, but I don't think that number is close to 24.

 

Of the 165 MLB starting pitchers with 60+ IP, Johnson ranked 150th in fWAR (0.2), 146th in xFIP (4.91) and 143rd in WHIP (1.45).

 

If you drop the IP to 30, there were 170 starting pitchers with a higher fWAR than Johnson.

 

5 starters x 30 teams= 150.

 

I like Johnson and think he can improve, but I'm not seeing what you're seeing.

[moonslav59]

A comp...

 

Kason Gabbard with Boston

12 GS'd (66.2 IP)

3.65 ERA

1.29 WHIP

131 ERA+

 

Johnson

19 GS'd (130.2 IP)

4.34 ERA

1.45 WHIP

102 ERA+

[Dojji]

A comp...

 

Kason Gabbard with Boston

12 GS'd (66.2 IP)

3.65 ERA

1.29 WHIP

131 ERA+

 

Johnson

19 GS'd (130.2 IP)

4.34 ERA

1.45 WHIP

102 ERA+

 

Kason Gabbard's numbers are inflated by a career year in 2007 which he never repeated.

 

Johnson on the other hand has actually been fairly consistent in his cameos in the big league, grading out as average each of the last 2 years.

 

Unless you want to say that if healthy Gabbard would have been a career 131 ERA+ pitcher, or in other words, an ace --and I loved Gabbard and I am absolutely not dumb enough to suggest that -- then your argument really isn't built on a strong foundation.

[Dojji]

Johnson started just 13 games for us this year and had 60.2 IP'd as a starter.

 

That's a quarter of a baseball season. When did that become a small sample size? The equivalent for a hitter would be around 180-200PAs.

 

A depth starter (as in, below the #5 guy) making 13 starts is actually doing a lot more work for his team than he was expected to.

 

His ERA as a starter was 4.15 (slightly better than as a RP'er but his WHIP was pretty ugly at 1.451. I'm really not so sure he'd win a starting role on even half the teams in MLB, if he puts up those numbers next year. Sure, there are teams with holes in their rotations that he'd have a good shot at making the rotation, but I don't think that number is close to 24.

 

Try using ERA+. It's there for a reason. Johnson put in an average season of pitching by that measurement.

 

He was also good for 1.5 bWAR. That's actually solidly above average for a half season, and lines up with his other numbers. Not too many teams got 1.5 WAR from their #5 and again, this is based on only half a season of work. Stretching that out over 170 innings, assuming reasonable consistency, puts him somewhere between 1.8 and 2.2 WAR, which starts to become a number that you should be taking a bit more seriously than you appear to be.

 

how many teams have a #5 that gave them 1.5 bWAR?

 

Of the 165 MLB starting pitchers with 60+ IP, Johnson ranked 150th in fWAR (0.2)

 

In other words, placing solidly in the bottom third

 

bWAR disagrees with that, giving Johnson 1.5, which is very respectable for a part time player

 

146th in xFIP (4.91) and 143rd in WHIP (1.45).

 

These are the numbers that will prevent Johnson from being more than a decentish bottom of the rotation guy. They don't change the fact that he's shaping up into a decentish bottom of the rotation guy.

 

 

 

If you drop the IP to 30,

 

Why the hell would you do that? We're trying to compare him to STARTING pitchers.

[moonslav59]

Kason Gabbard's numbers are inflated by a career year in 2007 which he never repeated.

 

Johnson on the other hand has actually been fairly consistent in his cameos in the big league, grading out as average each of the last 2 years.

 

Unless you want to say that if healthy Gabbard would have been a career 131 ERA+ pitcher, or in other words, an ace --and I loved Gabbard and I am absolutely not dumb enough to suggest that -- then your argument really isn't built on a strong foundation.

 

Come on. Johnson and Gabbard's sample sizes are/were puny. To give Johnson extra points for consistency because he came up for very short stays of 4.1 IP one year and 27 IP another- both with WHIP's over 1.48 is not really fair.

 

True, Gabbard's 66.2 IP should not have been a projection of what was to come, but that's kind of the point I'm making about Johnson.

 

He certainly may end up better than Gabbard did, but I remember a few Sox fans lovin' on Kason, too.