I'd like to talk about Brian Johnson for a second

[Bellhorn04]

The idea was to get someone better than Johnson or Hembree and not so "fringy" as the other team builds depth and balance.

 

It's a nice thought, but good luck finding such a precise matchup.

[Bellhorn04]

Eh. I look at Johnson as a borderline starter that could and should be upgraded...

 

Sure, sign Eovaldi. We're not going to do it without spending some money.

[S5Dewey]

Regarding Wright and Pedroia : The Sox esteemed team physician, Dr. Vinnie Boombatz , offered his expert medical opinion: The good doctor said ; " Knee injuries can be tricky " .

 

Don't go out on any limbs there, Doc.

[moonslav59]

It's a nice thought, but good luck finding such a precise matchup.

 

I agree, the idea is a long shot. Maybe a third team might need to be involved- making it even more difficult.

 

Maybe a team that likes Swihart and his 4 arb years remaining and has a big need at catcher will be willing to trade a better starter than Johnson for both Johnson and Swihart. Maybe the SP'er is making $2-5M a year, and that's a lot for this team, but not for us.

[notin]

Sure, sign Eovaldi. We're not going to do it without spending some money.

 

I figure DD will bring back either Eovaldi or Kimbrel, but probably not both (although maybe).

 

The Sox need Kimbrel more in 2019 but will probably need Eovaldi more in 2020 and after...

[Bellhorn04]

I figure DD will bring back either Eovaldi or Kimbrel, but probably not both (although maybe).

 

The Sox need Kimbrel more in 2019 but will probably need Eovaldi more in 2020 and after...

 

And since they are both likely to command 4 year deals, Eovaldi looks like a better call.

[notin]

And since they are both likely to command 4 year deals, Eovaldi looks like a better call.

 

Rumor has it DD is leaning that way...

[moonslav59]

A 4 year deal to Eovaldi or Kimbrel really puts the squeeze on the budgets for a 2020 or 2021 luxury tax reset.

 

We'd either have to trade the one or both we sign or say good bye to one of our younger stars coming into free agency.

 

I wish I knew, if Henry has the resetting of the luxury tax already mapped out, and if so, what year the reset is scheduled for.

[Bellhorn04]

A 4 year deal to Eovaldi or Kimbrel really puts the squeeze on the budgets for a 2020 or 2021 luxury tax reset.

 

We'd either have to trade the one or both we sign or say good bye to one of our younger stars coming into free agency.

 

I wish I knew, if Henry has the resetting of the luxury tax already mapped out, and if so, what year the reset is scheduled for.

 

a) Forget about Kimbrel - he gone.

Eovaldi doesn't squeeze that much if you assume Porcello, Sale or both are goners after 2019.

[moonslav59]

a) Forget about Kimbrel - he gone.

Eovaldi doesn't squeeze that much if you assume Porcello, Sale or both are goners after 2019.

 

Well, it squeezes Sale or Porcello out.

[notin]

Well, it squeezes Sale or Porcello out.

 

 

Which means I becomes a question of performance vs safety. Porcello is only 3 months older than Sale but has proven much more durable. Sale is far and away better, but has shown an element of risk in a long term deal.

[moonslav59]

Which means I becomes a question of performance vs safety. Porcello is only 3 months older than Sale but has proven much more durable. Sale is far and away better, but has shown an element of risk in a long term deal.

 

Yes, but is also could come down to these choices:

 

Eovaldi x 4 (2019-2022)

vs

Porcello x 4 (2020-2023)

 

or

 

Eovaldi x 4 (2019-2022)

vs

Sale x 6 or 7 (2020-???)

[kenmeister]

Yes, but is also could come down to these choices:

 

Eovaldi x 4 (2019-2022)

vs

Porcello x 4 (2020-2023)

 

or

 

Eovaldi x 4 (2019-2022)

vs

Sale x 6 or 7 (2020-???)

 

Put me down for Eovaldi and Porcello. I don't think Sale can last a full MLB season as a starter.

[moonslav59]

Put me down for Eovaldi and Porcello. I don't think Sale can last a full MLB season as a starter.

 

I'm not ready to write Sale off so quickly.

 

1) He still started 27 regular season games in 2018.

2) He started 29 or more games in 5 of his previous 6 seasons with the only one under being 26 starts in 2014.

3) He's been over 200 IP in 4 of his last 6 seasons and 190+ in 5 of 7.

 

Am I worried? Yes.

 

We should know more after next season.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Put me down for Eovaldi and Porcello. I don't think Sale can last a full MLB season as a starter.

 

Porcello and Eovaldi might mean no Bogey.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not ready to write Sale off so quickly.

 

1) He still started 27 regular season games in 2018.

2) He started 29 or more games in 5 of his previous 6 seasons with the only one under being 26 starts in 2014.

3) He's been over 200 IP in 4 of his last 6 seasons and 190+ in 5 of 7.

 

Am I worried? Yes.

 

We should know more after next season.

 

 

The odd thing is, we could be better off if both Sale and JD Martinez have off-seasons or miss time in 2019, increasing our chances of retaining them. Assuming we still win the World Series, of course.

[kenmeister]

Porcello and Eovaldi might mean no Bogey.

 

I'm extremely pessimistic about our chances to keep Bogey now that he crossed the 20 home run threshold in only 513 at bats.

[kenmeister]

I'm not ready to write Sale off so quickly.

 

1) He still started 27 regular season games in 2018.

2) He started 29 or more games in 5 of his previous 6 seasons with the only one under being 26 starts in 2014.

3) He's been over 200 IP in 4 of his last 6 seasons and 190+ in 5 of 7.

 

Am I worried? Yes.

 

We should know more after next season.

 

 

 

 

The games started is a bit misleading, as we know the quality dips after the all-star break. But I agree, we'll know more after next season.

[moonslav59]

The games started is a bit misleading, as we know the quality dips after the all-star break. But I agree, we'll know more after next season.

 

How about his IP numbers?

[Dojji]

How about his IP numbers?

 

Not that concerning on the face of it, the real worry is his medical report, not his usage or conventional wear and tear.

 

I know there's a tendency among those of us who live in the world of baseball numbers to assume that you can find everything somewhere in the stacks of data. That's not always the case. There is no "elbows hurt" statistic. The core of the problem is concerns about the future, records of past performance won't indicate a new factor until more time passes.

[moonslav59]

Not that concerning on the face of it, the real worry is his medical report, not his usage or conventional wear and tear.

 

I know there's a tendency among those of us who live in the world of baseball numbers to assume that you can find everything somewhere in the stacks of data. That's not always the case. There is no "elbows hurt" statistic. The core of the problem is concerns about the future, records of past performance won't indicate a new factor until more time passes.

 

No doubt. No stats show what Sale or any pitcher can do going forward, but he really has not had a significant injury history. His endurance issues have been a concern to me all along. I was for resting him more in 2017 and was fine with how we rested him this year, too, although it didn't seem to help, this time.

 

I am certainly concerned about signing Sale to a long term deal next winter. I am also concerned about signing Eovaldi to 4 years.

[Dojji]

Oh I think it did help. It just didn't cure him. How it helped was a pitcher with some kind of structural complaint in his throwing mechanics was able to literally finish the season for us. That's valuable. And now he's in the offseason and has months to give his elbow and shoulder all the TLC they need. That's also valuable. If they actually managed to avoid a potential Tommy John, that just puts it over the top.

 

From my perspective, Sale pitching literally through the end of the season was one of the best possible outcomes once this elbow fatigue cropped up in the first place. I think Cora and his staff handled this just about as perfectly as humanly possible.

 

Personally I would be all for Sale skipping several noncritical starts in the first half of the coming season just to hope his ligaments tighten up and recover from the strain. We have the depth right now, no harm in doing a little extra to be sure, especially if we can get out to an early lead again.

[kenmeister]

Personally I would be all for Sale skipping several noncritical starts in the first half of the coming season just to hope his ligaments tighten up and recover from the strain. We have the depth right now, no harm in doing a little extra to be sure, especially if we can get out to an early lead again.

 

Yes that's a good idea. That's where Johnson/Velazquez/Wright could get work in, taking every 4th or 5th start Sale would otherwise get. But I honestly don't know what is needed to preserve the man I thought Cora did all he could in 2018 and he still went MIA for much of the second half.

[kenmeister]

I am also concerned about signing Eovaldi to 4 years.

 

I know I should be, but I'm very bullish on him. But it's easy to say when it's not your own money right?

[Dojji]

Yes that's a good idea. That's where Johnson/Velazquez/Wright could get work in, taking every 4th or 5th start Sale would otherwise get. But I honestly don't know what is needed to preserve the man I thought Cora did all he could in 2018 and he still went MIA for much of the second half.

 

He went MIA in the second half because the team could afford it. If they'd been in trouble, Sale would be pitching, but Cora gambled to make sure he was available in the postseason and thankfully Johnson stepped up a few times and Price moved into the #1 slot while Sale was out.

[moonslav59]

He went MIA in the second half because the team could afford it. If they'd been in trouble, Sale would be pitching, but Cora gambled to make sure he was available in the postseason and thankfully Johnson stepped up a few times and Price moved into the #1 slot while Sale was out.

 

Erod coming back helped, too. Picking up Eovaldi, too.

[Kimmi]

Ithink trading two from Johnson, Hembree & Swihart for a better 5/6 starter or set-up man would solve a lot of problems.

 

It would make sense especially if we could trade for someone who has some options remaining.

[Kimmi]

I figure DD will bring back either Eovaldi or Kimbrel, but probably not both (although maybe).

 

The Sox need Kimbrel more in 2019 but will probably need Eovaldi more in 2020 and after...

 

IMO, we need Eovaldi more than we need Kimbrel.

 

It will be easier to replace a relief pitcher than it will be to replace a starter.

[moonslav59]

It would make sense especially if we could trade for someone who has some options remaining.

 

I know hamony will cut me a new one, but I'd love to see this...

 

Johnson (1 pre-arb + 3 arbs)

Hembree (3 arbs)

Swihart (4 arbs)

Travis (pre-arb)

 

for

 

Alex Colome (2 arbs left)

[Bellhorn04]

I know hamony will cut me a new one, but I'd love to see this...

 

Johnson (1 pre-arb + 3 arbs)

Hembree (3 arbs)

Swihart (4 arbs)

Travis (pre-arb)

 

for

 

Alex Colome (2 arbs left)

 

Does Seattle need a catcher?