A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[harmony]

That’s the problem with affordable and controllable star players. Sometimes other GMs just focus on them, like Lunhow did.

 

To give up a season that is far from over and a perennial Cy Young candidate, it wouldn’t surprise me if Rizzo wanted a lot more than your A-Ball stars.

 

If so, maybe a Mike Minor/Clint Frazier swap could happen...

A half game out of the second Wild Card slot, the Texas Rangers are unlikely to trade a year and a half of their ace.

[notin]

A half game out of the second Wild Card slot, the Texas Rangers are unlikely to trade a year and a half of their ace.

 

 

Until they’re no longer in it, which most people suspect will happen. A lot can happen over the next 5 weeks.

 

The idea of the Rangers trading Minor is not an original thought on my part...

[jacksonianmarch]

Minor is under contract for 2020. He’s not a rental...

 

That’s at least intriguing, but his injury history and xFIP over 4 makes me worry about regression. Frazier doesn’t move unless we get a guy without much questions. Frazier is an annual 30HR hitter in the bigs if given the chance. He goes for an ace. Minor would be a good get, but he’s no ace

[notin]

That’s at least intriguing, but his injury history and xFIP over 4 makes me worry about regression. Frazier doesn’t move unless we get a guy without much questions. Frazier is an annual 30HR hitter in the bigs if given the chance. He goes for an ace. Minor would be a good get, but he’s no ace

 

 

So was Will Middlebrooks at 24. And we got a backup catcher for him, not an ace

 

At age 24, Middlebrooks had an OPS+ of 102 and Frazier has a 106. I don’t think those 4 percentage points are the difference between ace and backup catcher.

 

At age 23, Middlebrooks had an OPS+ of 121 in 286 PA, roughly the same as the older Frazier has in 209PA this year. Both players have K/BB concerns and while Middlebrooks is worse, he has a massive defensive advantage over Frazier in terms of position and performance.

 

Frazier isn’t getting an ace better than Minor, who currently is the ace of a team still in the hunt.

[bkzwhitestrican]

30 HRs may not be a huge deal anymore. Right now 58 players are on pace to finish with 30+ HRs. Last year only 27 finished with 30+.

[OH FOY]

Yanks need an shut down Ace, not these half-ass Pitchers. If they get Scherzer we in trouble.

[notin]

Yanks need an shut down Ace, not these half-ass Pitchers. If they get Scherzer we in trouble.

 

Getting an ace helps any team, but upgrades are upgrades...

[notin]

30 HRs may not be a huge deal anymore. Right now 58 players are on pace to finish with 30+ HRs. Last year only 27 finished with 30+.

 

 

CJ Cron is looking at being an annual 30 HR hitter. He was non-tendered this past offseason...

[jacksonianmarch]

So was Will Middlebrooks at 24. And we got a backup catcher for him, not an ace

 

At age 24, Middlebrooks had an OPS+ of 102 and Frazier has a 106. I don’t think those 4 percentage points are the difference between ace and backup catcher.

 

At age 23, Middlebrooks had an OPS+ of 121 in 286 PA, roughly the same as the older Frazier has in 209PA this year. Both players have K/BB concerns and while Middlebrooks is worse, he has a massive defensive advantage over Frazier in terms of position and performance.

 

Frazier isn’t getting an ace better than Minor, who currently is the ace of a team still in the hunt.

 

Frazier has a much better minor league track record. Frazier has shown patience in the minors. He has shown good defense in the minors. He showed patience in the majors. Middlebrooks flamed out because he had a big hole in his swing and was so jumpy that he didn't work counts. Frazier can work counts. The other thing that separates the two is that Frazier has gotten better each time he came up to the bigs. Middlebrooks was a flash in the pan who fizzled out once the league got a book on him

 

Frazier's OPS+ this season is 120, so far better in his third time up than Middlebrooks 3 years in

[Carpin]

30 HRs may not be a huge deal anymore. Right now 58 players are on pace to finish with 30+ HRs. Last year only 27 finished with 30+.

 

it would be nice to know how many were on a 30HR pace at this time last year. A lot of players fade in the 2nd part of the season

[notin]

H

Frazier has a much better minor league track record. Frazier has shown patience in the minors. He has shown good defense in the minors. He showed patience in the majors. Middlebrooks flamed out because he had a big hole in his swing and was so jumpy that he didn't work counts. Frazier can work counts. The other thing that separates the two is that Frazier has gotten better each time he came up to the bigs. Middlebrooks was a flash in the pan who fizzled out once the league got a book on him

 

Frazier's OPS+ this season is 120, so far better in his third time up than Middlebrooks 3 years in

 

But being better than Middlebrooks is not a guarantee of success and certainly not the border for being an “annual 30 HR hitter” acceptable in a trade for an ace. Much like how Sox fans overvalued Middlebrooks after a small sample, I think you’re overvaluing Frazier’s appeal around the league.

 

And maybe I am too, thinking you can get Minor for him...

[Carpin]

Do you want to exhaust those possibilities if the Nationals insist on Gleyber Torres? Holding Torres took you out of the running for Cole. Sometimes with these mega-star trades, the other team can focus on one key player and simply not budge on his inclusion.

 

Would you deal Torres (along with, say, Florial and Garcia) for Scherzer?

 

Would you deal Devers (I don't know who else you can offer to substitute Florial and Garcia) for Scherzer?

[OH FOY]

Would you deal Devers (I don't know who else you can offer to substitute Florial and Garcia) for Scherzer?

 

No.

Yanks wont have to give up Torres, they are taking on Salary, Yanks will never do that anyway. They have Andujar, Frazier other they can move. For the Nationals, the 3rd baseman Rendon is a FA after this season, so they can flip him too, if they want more salary relief, this year and more Prospects, if they want to build. Rendon would be a nice addition to a contender this year, even though he will be a rental.

[Carpin]

Exactly, Scherzer is a HOF for sure, but he's not worth Torres (or Devers) straight up in a trade. There should be a prospects "price" for him, we just don't know it yet

[notin]

Would you deal Devers (I don't know who else you can offer to substitute Florial and Garcia) for Scherzer?

 

No, but certainly any attempt to acquire him would have to involve Devers. Unless the Nats surprised Boston by settling for Benintendi.

 

I don’t see a Casas/Dalbec/Duran offer doing the trick...

[notin]

Exactly, Scherzer is a HOF for sure, but he's not worth Torres (or Devers) straight up in a trade. There should be a prospects "price" for him, we just don't know it yet

 

 

Oh there probably is. But do the Yankees have those prospects? One would think the headliner would have to be highly ranked.

 

San Diego, for example, could probably get him for Gore and Urias. But they won’t do that for multiple reasons.

 

It would be more difficult for Washington to rebuild into a contender with whatever they can trade Scherzer for than it would be for them to continue to build around Scherzer. So any trade for him is asking Washington to jettison multiple seasons of trying to contend. Is a package headlined by Florial, Loasigia, and Garcia worth that to Washington?

[Carpin]

I'm surprised you prefer Devers over Benintendi, from the outside, I believe it should be the other way around

[notin]

I'm surprised you prefer Devers over Benintendi, from the outside, I believe it should be the other way around

 

Right now Devers is the hotter commodity. Performing better, one more year of pre-arb control, and plays a more premium position...

[vegasbob]

No, but certainly any attempt to acquire him would have to involve Devers. Unless the Nats surprised Boston by settling for Benintendi.

 

I don’t see a Casas/Dalbec/Duran offer doing the trick...

 

Benintendi's name should certainly come up in discussions for obvious reasons : low age, club control , cost. Questions I have is whether Beni has a lot of true upside as a LH hitting , power OF'er in Fenway. Has he tried to contour his hitting approach to the Wall due to the deep RF dimensions, at the expense of his natural abilities? Can he be a .290/.850 hitter with 20-25 HR's/80-90 rbi hitter for the next 5 years or is he a .275 and lower BA, .775 OPS defensive guy with a short arm ?

 

Would I trade him for a #3/#4 veteran starter just to get through 2019 and into the WC play-in? Probably not, and I am not Andrew's biggest fan.

[vegasbob]

Right now Devers is the hotter commodity. Performing better, one more year of pre-arb control, and plays a more premium position...

 

This should not even be a contest. Devers brings more to the party right now than Beni.

[notin]

Benintendi's name should certainly come up in discussions for obvious reasons : low age, club control , cost. Questions I have is whether Beni has a lot of true upside as a LH hitting , power OF'er in Fenway. Has he tried to contour his hitting approach to the Wall due to the deep RF dimensions, at the expense of his natural abilities? Can he be a .290/.850 hitter with 20-25 HR's/80-90 rbi hitter for the next 5 years or is he a .275 and lower BA, .775 OPS defensive guy with a short arm ?

 

Would I trade him for a #3/#4 veteran starter just to get through 2019 and into the WC play-in? Probably not, and I am not Andrew's biggest fan.

 

Maybe after the season, the Sox can think about Benintendi’s future in Boston. At the deadline, I doubt they do anything drastic to the lineup.

 

If the Sox actually had an outfield prospect within a mile of an MLB debut, things might be different...

[Station 13]

Does anybody know what's the latest with Eovaldi? Who will be back first Eovaldi or Wright? Also what's the latest on Pedroia?

 

Pedroia should just retire. Joe Mauer walked away from nearly $25M this year to retired.

[Carpin]

Oh there probably is. But do the Yankees have those prospects? One would think the headliner would have to be highly ranked.

 

San Diego, for example, could probably get him for Gore and Urias. But they won’t do that for multiple reasons.

 

It would be more difficult for Washington to rebuild into a contender with whatever they can trade Scherzer for than it would be for them to continue to build around Scherzer. So any trade for him is asking Washington to jettison multiple seasons of trying to contend. Is a package headlined by Florial, Loasigia, and Garcia worth that to Washington?

 

That would be a HUGE package for Scherzer (yankee fan glasses alert), not sure the Yankees would do that. Scherzer is 34 yrs old (almost 35), if you compare him to Sale, who was 27 at the time of the trade with a very team friendly contract at the time, he's not worth that package. Would you do that?

[bkzwhitestrican]

Scherzer's contract makes it so the Nats won't get very good prospects back in return. I think about $100M of his salary is deferred until the year 2028 or something like that, no team wants any part of that s***. Unless the Nats eat a chunk of his salary then trading Scherzer would not net them much.

[notin]

That would be a HUGE package for Scherzer (yankee fan glasses alert), not sure the Yankees would do that. Scherzer is 34 yrs old (almost 35), if you compare him to Sale, who was 27 at the time of the trade with a very team friendly contract at the time, he's not worth that package. Would you do that?

 

 

The Red Sox gave up two prospects for Sale who were ranked in the BA Top 32, in Moncada #2 and Kopech at 32.

 

Of Florial, Garcia or Loasigia, only Florial has ever been in the top 30 when he ranked 26 in 2018. But he dropped out of the top 100 (granted, I think he was hurt). So for the differences in contract situation, that seems fair...

[notin]

Scherzer's contract makes it so the Nats won't get very good prospects back in return. I think about $100M of his salary is deferred until the year 2028 or something like that, no team wants any part of that s***. Unless the Nats eat a chunk of his salary then trading Scherzer would not net them much.

 

 

Maybe. But Scherzer has about as much money left on his deal as Verlander had when he was dealt to Houston. The Tigers did get former top 100 prospect Daz Cameron in that trade, along with top 100 prospect Franklin Perez. Verlander was worth about 8 less fWAR over the previous 3 seasons thanScherzer has been worth in the last 3.

 

History doesn’t side with this being a giveaway...

[Bellhorn04]

Scherzer's contract makes it so the Nats won't get very good prospects back in return. I think about $100M of his salary is deferred until the year 2028 or something like that, no team wants any part of that s***. Unless the Nats eat a chunk of his salary then trading Scherzer would not net them much.

 

Maybe. But Scherzer has about as much money left on his deal as Verlander had when he was dealt to Houston. The Tigers did get former top 100 prospect Daz Cameron in that trade, along with top 100 prospect Franklin Perez. Verlander was worth about 8 less fWAR over the previous 3 seasons thanScherzer has been worth in the last 3.

 

History doesn’t side with this being a giveaway...

 

Exactly half of Scherzer's money was deferred, so the Nats have to pay him 15 mill a year from now until 2028.

 

As of now they owe him about 142.5 million.

 

So this could indeed be a factor, I think.

[S5Dewey]

A big crock of you know what.

 

Yes. I hope JH is getting paid "Royally" for turning two home games into away games.

[Carpin]

Maybe. But Scherzer has about as much money left on his deal as Verlander had when he was dealt to Houston. The Tigers did get former top 100 prospect Daz Cameron in that trade, along with top 100 prospect Franklin Perez. Verlander was worth about 8 less fWAR over the previous 3 seasons thanScherzer has been worth in the last 3.

 

History doesn’t side with this being a giveaway...

 

Scherzer is owed $90.73MM (not counting AAV, which is $28.689MM). Verlander was owed about $60.75MM (guaranteed) at the time of the trade, plus Detroit sent $8MM to Astros, so the financial hit was about $52.75MM

(Source: Cot's Baseball Contarcts)

 

Based on this, Scherzer won't be worth two top 100 prospects, unless some serious cash is involved.

 

I see your point regarding WAR difference, but Verlander had two rough years and at the time of the trade he was back at the top of his game.

Edited June 21, 2019 by Carpin
Scherzer salary

[jacksonianmarch]

Pedroia should just retire. Joe Mauer walked away from nearly $25M this year to retired.

 

No he did not. He was to be a FA