A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Maxbialystock]

Actually they are with Sandoval. And now compounded with Pedroia. With that money we might have signed a second baseman and a closer. It is a crap shoot to hire FA's for long and expensive contracts. The guys who get it right more often than not will put their teams in a winning position.

 

Completely agree. It also goes without saying that John Henry has utterly failed to put the Sox in a winning position. Forgot that 86 year stretch. It’s todays Sox fans who have every reason to miserable. When oh when will the Sox FO office put together a good team?

[vegasbob]

You are correct, but we still spent a lot.

 

Our 2012 budget broke our previous record by over $7M and was $12M more than 2011. Yes, we dipped into the mid $250's in 2013 and 2014, but even those numbers dwarfed 2007 ($143M) and 2004 ($127M). Amazingly, we were at $99.9M in 2003.

 

2015 broke the 2012 record by $9M when we spent $184.3M. That's almost double our 2003 budget and $40M higher than 2007 and $57M more than 2004. Yes, salaries inflated those years, but not by that much.

 

This does not refute your claim, however. We did spend more but not on "elite," big-priced free agents, but rather several mid-ranged ones. One coudl argue we bombed out on most of those, too. Even the Victorino and Napoli deal only looked good for 1 year.

 

A look back at the signings those years:

 

before 2012: Cody Ross, Aaron Cook (Traded for Melancon, Bailey & Mortenson)

 

before 2013: Kojo Uehara, S Victorino, Mike Napoli & Jonny Gomes (Cash for M Carp)

 

before 2014: Pierzynski, Mujica, Napoli (again) & Sizemore

 

before 2015: Pablo & HRam (not elite- but close to elite contracts) Traded Cespedes for Porcello and signed Masterson, too.

 

Between 4 to 8 seasons further on, only Porcello still dealing for the Sox. The only dead money left is Pablo for another 3.5 months, to be replaced at lesser cost by Pedroia next few contract years. Risks for future dead money may include Eovaldi and Sale if arms/shoulders go bad. JBJr's final arb year negotiation will be interesting to see if the Sox value him at $9MM or more. Also at question would be a QO for Porcello, if extension never materializes.

[moonslav59]

Exactly. And if they spent that money on a 2b and 1b, at some point those players are likely to become dead weight contracts as well. Pedroia, for example, was a very productive 2b on his contract for a long time...

 

We did spend money and resources on second base, despite still having Pedey's contract on the books:

 

$11M on Nunez

$3.6M on Holt

Traded Buttrey for Kinsler

Brought up Chavis, maybe earlier than planned

 

We did spend money at 1B, too, just not all in one basket:

 

$18.5M on Moreland (2 contracts)

$6.25M on Pearce

 

While that only comes to just over $8M a year over the last 3 years, we are spending almost $13M this year.

 

 

 

Edited June 15, 2019 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Between 4 to 8 seasons further on, only Porcello still dealing for the Sox. The only dead money left is Pablo for another 3.5 months, to be replaced at lesser cost by Pedroia next few contract years. Risks for future dead money may include Eovaldi and Sale if arms/shoulders go bad. JBJr's final arb year negotiation will be interesting to see if the Sox value him at $9MM or more. Also at question would be a QO for Porcello, if extension never materializes.

 

I'm not complaining.

 

I'd offer Porcello a QO, but I hope it doesn't turn him into the next Keuchel. Maybe he'll take the QO our of that fear.

[Nick]

1,6,5,3,5,3,3,2,2,4,2,2,2,2,2,5,2,3,7, Sox end of year 40 man payroll rank 2019-2000. We're lucky to have the ownership that we have. No chance of reset. I don't regret Moreland/Pearce signings. 2019 season is not over. If it doesn't work out, we owe nothing for next year.

[Nick]

I'm not complaining.

 

I'd offer Porcello a QO, but I hope it doesn't turn him into the next Keuchel. Maybe he'll take the QO our of that fear.

 

I'd give Rick 2-3 year deal at slight hometown discount.

 

That will lock down our starting rotation for 2/3 more years.

[Maxbialystock]

No, long term free agent deals to players 30 and over piss me off. Is that difficult to grasp?

 

How many players like that were on the 2004 team?

 

Hell, they infuriate me. I don’t even like long, lucrative ones for guys like Bryce Harper. I even hate when sports writers and commentators applaud those contracts as good investments. I was even against keeping Ellsbury and Kimbrel.

 

All that said, I find it hard to complain about anything in the John Henry era—even the not smart contracts.

[Nick]

Would it be smart to leave behind 3 starting pitchers in States and not travel with the team when we play the Yankees in London? They would get 6 days off at home. They can come in and get some throwing in. Edited June 15, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Would it be smart to leave behind 3 starting pitchers in States and not travel with the team when we play the Yankees in London? They would get 6 days off at home. They can come in and get some throwing in.

 

I'd maybe leave 2.

[moonslav59]

Leading AL WAR since May 20th:

 

1.7 Trout

1.4 Kepler

1.3 Bogey

1.3 JBJ

1.2 Lindor

1.1 C Santana

1.1 Bregman

1.0 Devers

 

1.8 LLynn

1.8 Giolito

1.3 Morton

1.3 Odorizzi

1.2 Sale

1.2 Verlander

0.9 Boyd & Minor

0.8 Price & Chirinos

0.7 Porcello

 

3 of top 8 on offense.

 

3 of top 11pitchers

[OH FOY]

Our Record since May 20th is 14-12. I would think with all these WAR guys it would be better. Astros record is 17-7 since May 20th, with 2 WAR guys. Edited June 16, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

Our Record since May 20th is 14-12. I would think with all these WAR guys it would be better. Astros record is 17-7 since May 20th, with 2 WAR guys.

 

We've had a few players struggling since 5/20. I'm hopeful we've turned things around for the good and for good.

[Nick]

We better save some money for a starter in case Eovaldi doesn't come back.

 

Having Johnson as our best #5 at this point is joke.

[MADSTORK]

Running JSmith out to close says it all

 

Plenty of prospects to make a move unless DD is pulling an Ainge

 

Davis to LA, thanks Danny you haven’t made a bad move yet!

 

Kimbrel to Cubs for 3 years 40 mill says he was never done or past his prime

 

Cash strapped is a beautiful predicament to be in, thanks Ben, Tom, Larry and john

[moonslav59]

Is 2B still an area of need?

 

Even if it is, can we afford to spend limited resources on 2B over the pen and rotation?

 

Here's a look at some recent, small sample sizes of players that can play 2B:

 

1.077 Brock Holt in his last 12 games (not counting today's 0 PA and 1 BB)

 

.951 Chavis in his last 9 games (not counting today's 2 for 5 game)

 

.750 Marco Hernandez in the 8 games since being called up

 

.654 Nunez in his last 16 games (not good but better than before)

 

[notin]

Is 2B still an area of need?

 

Even if it is, can we afford to spend limited resources on 2B over the pen and rotation?

 

Here's a look at some recent, small sample sizes of players that can play 2B:

 

1.077 Brock Holt in his last 12 games (not counting today's 0 PA and 1 BB)

 

.951 Chavis in his last 9 games (not counting today's 2 for 5 game)

 

.750 Marco Hernandez in the 8 games since being called up

 

.654 Nunez in his last 16 games (not good but better than before)

 

.

 

2b is basically the same names as last year, plus Chavis. Last year it was an area of need. Is Chavis enough to make it not one?

[moonslav59]

.

 

2b is basically the same names as last year, plus Chavis. Last year it was an area of need. Is Chavis enough to make it not one?

 

That's part of the question along with others who are doing better (recently) than they were last year, plus we have this guy I never heard of named Marco freakin' Hernandez!

 

[oldtimer]

Is 2B still an area of need?

 

Even if it is, can we afford to spend limited resources on 2B over the pen and rotation?

 

Here's a look at some recent, small sample sizes of players that can play 2B:

 

1.077 Brock Holt in his last 12 games (not counting today's 0 PA and 1 BB)

 

.951 Chavis in his last 9 games (not counting today's 2 for 5 game)

 

.750 Marco Hernandez in the 8 games since being called up

 

.654 Nunez in his last 16 games (not good but better than before)

 

 

I presume your talking about the 2020 season and beyond. In that case, we need to think about who will be leaving the team for 2020. Will both Pearce and Moreland be gone or will we try to keep Moreland to have a solid lefthanded bat who can play a good first base and DH, but is a little fragile? I would guess Chavis becomes our first baseman with no plans to leave him at 2nd. Brock Holt remains our super utility guy and is needed to back up 2nd and short and in a pinch has real versatility. Can't count on him as a regular 2nd baseman though. Do we keep Nunez as a decent right handed bat with some versatility but a below average glove, or do we let him go. I think the latter is likely. That leaves Marco Hernandez. There is additional time this season to determine if he is good enough. Do we want to rely on him as the starting 2nd baseman or go into the market and find a young and solid guy for that role. It might cost us so it would be a tradeoff of where to spend the money. Yes, we need help in the BP. You could ask if some of that talent can come out of the minors. As far as a starter, so we keep Porcello or not? Will Eovaldi return to the startion rotation and hold up his end and do we keep E-Rod or work a trade using him? My point is this has to be looked at holistically and thats what I believe DD and the front office are doing.

[moonslav59]

I presume your talking about the 2020 season and beyond. In that case, we need to think about who will be leaving the team for 2020. Will both Pearce and Moreland be gone or will we try to keep Moreland to have a solid lefthanded bat who can play a good first base and DH, but is a little fragile? I would guess Chavis becomes our first baseman with no plans to leave him at 2nd. Brock Holt remains our super utility guy and is needed to back up 2nd and short and in a pinch has real versatility. Can't count on him as a regular 2nd baseman though. Do we keep Nunez as a decent right handed bat with some versatility but a below average glove, or do we let him go. I think the latter is likely. That leaves Marco Hernandez. There is additional time this season to determine if he is good enough. Do we want to rely on him as the starting 2nd baseman or go into the market and find a young and solid guy for that role. It might cost us so it would be a tradeoff of where to spend the money. Yes, we need help in the BP. You could ask if some of that talent can come out of the minors. As far as a starter, so we keep Porcello or not? Will Eovaldi return to the startion rotation and hold up his end and do we keep E-Rod or work a trade using him? My point is this has to be looked at holistically and thats what I believe DD and the front office are doing.

 

Actually, I was thinking of this year and the trade deadline.

 

As for 2020, I think it's about the same. There will be no money to spend on 2B. I think it will be Chavis and Marco at 2B and/or Chavis/Dalbec/Oclimey at 1B.

[Bellhorn04]

Running JSmith out to close says it all

 

Kimbrel to Cubs for 3 years 40 mill says he was never done or past his prime

 

Cash strapped is a beautiful predicament to be in, thanks Ben, Tom, Larry and john

 

1) They only ran Smith out there because it was a 5 run lead.

 

2) Kimbrel was looking for more twice what he got.

 

3) 4 titles in 15 years and 119 wins last year while being "cash strapped" isn't so bad.

 

You're as clueless as ever, thanks for the laughs.

[Nick]

1) They only ran Smith out there because it was a 5 run lead.

 

2) Kimbrel was looking for more twice what he got.

 

3) 4 titles in 15 years and 119 wins last year while being "cash strapped" isn't so bad.

 

You're as clueless as ever, thanks for the laughs.

 

CHICAGO -- The first domino has fallen in the wake of the Edwin Encarnacion trade as the Yankees optioned outfielder Clint Frazier to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre after Sunday’s 10-3 win over the White Sox. The move creates space on the 25-man roster for Encarnacion, who will join the team when it returns to New York and be available for Monday's series opener against the Rays.

 

“It’s a tough pill to swallow. It’s never fun, especially with the way I thought I contributed to the team this year,” Frazier said. “Guess I’m facing reality right now.”

 

Frazier, 24, has played well this season and has been one of the team’s most consistent bats while Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge have been out with injury for extended periods of time.

 

“Very [difficult],” Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. “He’s played a big role on a winning team and that doesn’t necessarily stop now. This is where we’re at with our roster situation. Obviously, tough news to deliver, but hopefully he can make the most of it and use it to get better at his craft.”

 

Frazier is hitting .283/.330/.513 with 11 homers and an .843 OPS in 53 games for the Yankees this season. He went 1-for-5 with a strikeout on Sunday.

 

Stanton is set to return this week. Who goes down next? Team chemistry? I'm not arguing upgrade with Encarnacion but at what cost?

 

Our biggest question mark is how soon before Eovaldi returns to full health. I want to stay positive but he's a big missing part right now because we don't have an adequate fill in for healthy Eovaldi. On paper, we had one of the best starting rotation coming into 2019.

Edited June 17, 2019 by Nick

[Nick]

David Price going 1+ inning on Thursday and Johnson lasting only 3 innings yesterday forced our bullpen working on fumes.

 

Cora did his best to patchwork the pen over the weekend. Thank God we scored some runs at top of 10th so we could afford Josh Smith to 'close'.

 

This is MLB and it's bottom line game. After losing first two games in Texas, we recovered to win 5 straight. I was worried about yesterday's game thinking we would have to out score Baltimore with Johnson taking the mound. His rehab stint in the minors was very uninspiring at best.

 

I remember a time when we thought Johnson was a very good prospect.

[Maxbialystock]

.

 

2b is basically the same names as last year, plus Chavis. Last year it was an area of need. Is Chavis enough to make it not one?

 

Kinsler got the gold glove at 2b last year, but couldn't hit spit. Injuries to Holt and Nunez necessitated Chavis, who hit more in a month than Kinsler did all year in 2018. Now Holt and Nunez are back, and so is Hernandez, so I'm not worried about 2b. And certainly not SS and 3B. Assuming Moreland returns, the Sox will have a surfeit of infielders, which once again will make Holt key because he can also play OF so JDM can stay in the DH slot.

[notin]

Kinsler got the gold glove at 2b last year, but couldn't hit spit. Injuries to Holt and Nunez necessitated Chavis, who hit more in a month than Kinsler did all year in 2018. Now Holt and Nunez are back, and so is Hernandez, so I'm not worried about 2b. And certainly not SS and 3B. Assuming Moreland returns, the Sox will have a surfeit of infielders, which once again will make Holt key because he can also play OF so JDM can stay in the DH slot.

 

There was a time when I liked Holt better in the OF, but not so much any more. I will give him that he hustles and goes all out out there, but I’d like the Sox to have a defense-oriented fourth OF.

 

But I know that’s not on the radar for 2019. Not enough room on the roster. Even yesterday’s hero Marco Hernandez might feel the squeeze when everyone is healthy...

[OH FOY]

David Price going 1+ inning on Thursday and Johnson lasting only 3 innings yesterday forced our bullpen working on fumes.

 

Cora did his best to patchwork the pen over the weekend. Thank God we scored some runs at top of 10th so we could afford Josh Smith to 'close'.

 

This is MLB and it's bottom line game. After losing first two games in Texas, we recovered to win 5 straight. I was worried about yesterday's game thinking we would have to out score Baltimore with Johnson taking the mound. His rehab stint in the minors was very uninspiring at best.

 

I remember a time when we thought Johnson was a very good prospect.

 

Arm problems hurt this guy, saw him when he was younger, threw much harder then he does now. Now Control is his game. If he doesn't have it, its tougher for him.

Good thinking about the BP, Starters have to go deeper.

[Maxbialystock]

There was a time when I liked Holt better in the OF, but not so much any more. I will give him that he hustles and goes all out out there, but I’d like the Sox to have a defense-oriented fourth OF.

 

But I know that’s not on the radar for 2019. Not enough room on the roster. Even yesterday’s hero Marco Hernandez might feel the squeeze when everyone is healthy...

 

I think you and all of us really are spoiled by having Beni, Bradley, and Betts--all fast with pretty good gloves and two with good arms-- out there, which historically is abby normal for the Red Sox, especially in LF. At the same time, we also want the good hitting, which last year we had from all three, especially MVP Betts.

 

What Cora did last year and again this year was follow that old Sox tradition and sometimes give up some defense for ensuring good bats in the belfrey/outfield. Thus JDM has played both LF and RF. He ain't no gazelle, that's for sure, but he has a good arm and rarely misplays the balls hit to him. Moreover, he likes to play the outfield. I can live with that and apparently so can Cora and DD.

 

The problem this year, however, is that no one is remotely at good batting DH as JDM is. I think Mookie did it once and did well. Otherwise, no.

 

One more reason to use JDM out there is that Cora has had to keep 13 pitchers on the roster, which means just 3 subs for the rest--1 catcher and 2 infielders, with JDM doubling as the 4th outfielder.

[notin]

I wouldn’t say Cora “has” to keep 13 pitchers on the roster. In fact, if Nunez, Pearce and Holt are all healthy at once, he can’t unless the Sox demote Chavis...

[Maxbialystock]

I wouldn’t say Cora “has” to keep 13 pitchers on the roster. In fact, if Nunez, Pearce and Holt are all healthy at once, he can’t unless the Sox demote Chavis...

 

I would say he does "have" to keep 13 pitchers because the rotation continues not to deliver 5-8 innings per start. Price went 1.1 in his last start, Johnson 3. Eovaldi's recovery is now on hold. None of the usual suspects seems capable of stepping in as the 5th starter.

 

What's made it a little easier to keep just 12 position players is all the injuries. Cora is even limited among those 12 because guys like Pearce and Nunez ain't hitting and ain't much on defense either. That's the biggest reason why Chavis has stayed in the lineup during his slump.

[Maxbialystock]

I look forward to the Minnesota series because it's a good test of where the Sox are right now. The Twins have 47 wins, 1 less than the Astros and Dodgers who lead MLB in wins, and lead MLB in runs scored and, more importantly, runs differential (runs for vs. runs against). Theirs is + 116 and ours is + 49. Both teams have good hitting, but theirs is better. Ditto their pitching.

[moonslav59]

I look forward to the Minnesota series because it's a good test of where the Sox are right now. The Twins have 47 wins, 1 less than the Astros and Dodgers who lead MLB in wins, and lead MLB in runs scored and, more importantly, runs differential (runs for vs. runs against). Theirs is + 116 and ours is + 49. Both teams have good hitting, but theirs is better. Ditto their pitching.

 

They do play in the easiest division in MLB, but yes, they are a formidable opponent.

 

It's time for us to show the good team that we are better.