A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

????

 

No. If this team has taught us anything about spending, it’s that high priced free agency is a real waste.

 

It's been hit and miss. No rings without Manny, Papi, Victorino, Napoli, Foulke, Damon, Price or JD

[notin]

It's been hit and miss. No rings without Manny, Papi, Victorino, Napoli, Foulke, Damon, Price or JD

 

 

And that it’s been hit and miss shows what a complete crapshoot that process is...

[S5Dewey]

And that it’s been hit and miss shows what a complete crapshoot that process is...

 

And the thing about crapshoots is that sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. In this case "we" are gambling with JH's money and the reward for winning far outstrips the risk of losing.

[S5Dewey]

Agree.

FA works if your developing your Minors, so they can take over at a position, after the FA contract is done. This way it starts bringing down the cost. Otherwise you just keep staying in the same circle of buying talent.

FA should be a stop gap, until your Minor Leaguers can take over the position your paying be big bucks for.

 

This is what Bill James said 30 years ago, that the way to build a team is through the minors, then using Free Agents to fill gaps when minor league players don't progress as the FO has hoped/predicted.

[dgalehouse]

There are always going to be some cases where a low budget team is a winner or a big budget team flops . But those are the exceptions. There is a very clear and obvious correlation between payroll and winning.

[notin]

There are always going to be some cases where a low budget team is a winner or a big budget team flops . But those are the exceptions. There is a very clear and obvious correlation between payroll and winning.

 

 

But there is a distinction between payroll and spending.

 

Paying/extending your current players through their peak years = good.

 

Spending for post-30yo free agents for big contracts long term = bad

 

Free agency for the Red Sox (and most teams) typically has been a case of short term gains, and sometimes coupled with long term commitments. Manny Ramirez remains the outlier case where the team spent heavily on a player and he was productive for the life of the deal...

[Bellhorn04]

????

 

No. If this team has taught us anything about spending, it’s that high priced free agency is a real waste.

 

Not really. The team has won 4 titles in 15 years and high priced free agents have played major roles in all them. (A lot of dead money has resulted too, no one can deny that.)

 

The team owners have been raking it in in spite of that dead money.

 

Championships + profits + market appreciation. I don't see how you can argue with the results.

[moonslav59]

And that it’s been hit and miss shows what a complete crapshoot that process is...

 

Exactly. The list of failures is about as long as the successes:

 

Offerman, Lugo, Dice-K, the Penny/Smoltz combo, Crawford, Masterson, the 2nd Napoli signing, Pablo, HRam.

 

Some might say JD Drew, Dempster, Jenks ($6M), and some even called the Price signing a disaster.

[moonslav59]

But there is a distinction between payroll and spending.

 

Paying/extending your current players through their peak years = good.

 

Spending for post-30yo free agents for big contracts long term = bad

 

Free agency for the Red Sox (and most teams) typically has been a case of short term gains, and sometimes coupled with long term commitments. Manny Ramirez remains the outlier case where the team spent heavily on a player and he was productive for the life of the deal...

 

Yes, and although his last 2 years of the deal were spent in LA, we had Jay Bay in his place via the trade.

 

(BTW, we got Workman as comp for losing JBay.)

[Bellhorn04]

Every team in baseball has a process that's hit and miss. That should be kind of obvious. No team has had anything resembling a dynasty this century.

[Kimmi]

If you pick on the team's current record it doesn't look like spending correlates to winning. But it's a franchise that has generally had a lot of success with high priced talent since Henry bought the team.

 

There is no correlation between spending and single year success.

 

However, there is some correlation between spending and sustained success.

[Bellhorn04]

There is no correlation between spending and single year success.

 

However, there is some correlation between spending and sustained success.

 

Which is basically what I'm saying.

[Kimmi]

Agree.

FA works if your developing your Minors, so they can take over at a position, after the FA contract is done. This way it starts bringing down the cost. Otherwise you just keep staying in the same circle of buying talent.

FA should be a stop gap, until your Minor Leaguers can take over the position your paying be big bucks for.

By the time a you get the majority of FA's now, after arbitration, they have very few good years left in them. Usually very close to 30 years old.

 

This is what Bill James said 30 years ago, that the way to build a team is through the minors, then using Free Agents to fill gaps when minor league players don't progress as the FO has hoped/predicted.

 

Amen.

[Kimmi]

Which is basically what I'm saying.

 

Yes, I was supporting you.

[Kimmi]

Which is basically what I'm saying.

 

Although I don't think that spending boatloads of money on free agents year in and year out is the way to build a strong franchise, unless the owner wants to eat a lot of money, which Henry has shown the willingness to do.

 

But there comes a point when the spending has to be limited. We're feeling that this year and we will feel it over the next couple of years.

[d-money]

What’s the deal with eovaldi? Was she shut down again? I am sick of pitching a crappy starter every 5th day.

[S5Dewey]

 

Some might say JD Drew, Dempster, Jenks ($6M), and some even called the Price signing a disaster.

 

Are you really going to get me started on Ryan Dempster again?

[notin]

Not really. The team has won 4 titles in 15 years and high priced free agents have played major roles in all them. (A lot of dead money has resulted too, no one can deny that.)

 

The team owners have been raking it in in spite of that dead money.

 

Championships + profits + market appreciation. I don't see how you can argue with the results.

 

Those results also include 3 last place finishes in a 4 year stretch. I don’t care how profitable the team is; I just want them to be competitive as often as possible. The easiest way to avoid stretches of non-competitive Red Sox is not have the team bogged down for several years by a lot of dead money...

[a700hitter]

Those results also include 3 last place finishes in a 4 year stretch. I don’t care how profitable the team is; I just want them to be competitive as often as possible. The easiest way to avoid stretches of non-competitive Red Sox is not have the team bogged down for several years by a lot of dead money...

No elite high priced free after agent players were added in those seasons.

[moonslav59]

No elite high priced free after agent players were added in those seasons.

 

You are correct, but we still spent a lot.

 

Our 2012 budget broke our previous record by over $7M and was $12M more than 2011. Yes, we dipped into the mid $250's in 2013 and 2014, but even those numbers dwarfed 2007 ($143M) and 2004 ($127M). Amazingly, we were at $99.9M in 2003.

 

2015 broke the 2012 record by $9M when we spent $184.3M. That's almost double our 2003 budget and $40M higher than 2007 and $57M more than 2004. Yes, salaries inflated those years, but not by that much.

 

This does not refute your claim, however. We did spend more but not on "elite," big-priced free agents, but rather several mid-ranged ones. One coudl argue we bombed out on most of those, too. Even the Victorino and Napoli deal only looked good for 1 year.

 

A look back at the signings those years:

 

before 2012: Cody Ross, Aaron Cook (Traded for Melancon, Bailey & Mortenson)

 

before 2013: Kojo Uehara, S Victorino, Mike Napoli & Jonny Gomes (Cash for M Carp)

 

before 2014: Pierzynski, Mujica, Napoli (again) & Sizemore

 

before 2015: Pablo & HRam (not elite- but close to elite contracts) Traded Cespedes for Porcello and signed Masterson, too.

[S5Dewey]

Those results also include 3 last place finishes in a 4 year stretch. I don’t care how profitable the team is; I just want them to be competitive as often as possible. The easiest way to avoid stretches of non-competitive Red Sox is not have the team bogged down for several years by a lot of dead money...

 

The easiest way to have stretches of mediocrity is by not taking the chances on the big name FA's. Every FA signing is a gamble and as in some gambles you win some and you lose some. Fortunately for us fans it's not our money and JH is willing to take his lumps with the bad signings in order to get the god ones.

 

In MLB's effort to enforce mediocrity he game is becoming more and more "rigged" against the big spending teams. Their goal is for every team to be competitive every year. MLB doesn't refer to it as the "Competitive Balance Tax" for nothing, ya know.

[Bellhorn04]

Those results also include 3 last place finishes in a 4 year stretch. I don’t care how profitable the team is; I just want them to be competitive as often as possible. The easiest way to avoid stretches of non-competitive Red Sox is not have the team bogged down for several years by a lot of dead money...

 

What about the 4 championships? It's kind of odd that you don't address that little fact at all.

 

Also, re those last place finishes, I don't think any of them can be specifically attributed to long-term dead money contracts.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Bellhorn04

[notin]

No elite high priced free after agent players were added in those seasons.

 

 

So the Sox didn’t add HRam and Sandoval in2015?

 

Good thing, because they might still be feeling one of those deals today...

[oldtimer]

So the Sox didn’t add HRam and Sandoval in2015?

 

Good thing, because they might still be feeling one of those deals today...

 

Actually they are with Sandoval. And now compounded with Pedroia. With that money we might have signed a second baseman and a closer. It is a crap shoot to hire FA's for long and expensive contracts. The guys who get it right more often than not will put their teams in a winning position.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually they are with Sandoval. And now compounded with Pedroia. With that money we might have signed a second baseman and a closer. It is a crap shoot to hire FA's for long and expensive contracts. The guys who get it right more often than not will put their teams in a winning position.

 

And the Red Sox are indeed the big winners this century.

[Bellhorn04]

So the Sox didn’t add HRam and Sandoval in2015?

 

Good thing, because they might still be feeling one of those deals today...

 

So what happened subsequent to those obviously bad signings?

 

2015 - last

2016 - won division

2017 - won division

2018 - won division and World Series

 

Not exactly powerful evidence for the sustained damaging effects of the bad signings.

[Elktonnick]

While there are many things to complain about, Red Sox ownership and how they spend their money isn't one of them. I recently saw a survey which rated John Henry as currently the best owner in MLB ( and possibly in all of professional sports, just look what he has done for Liverpool in the Premier League) Besides winning four championships Henry and his partners literally saved Fenway Park. Their stewardship of the red sox has also directly and or indirectly led to the revitalization of professional baseball through New England. I may complain about some of their individual decisions and some of their hires but overall one has to salute what Henry and Co have accomplished since they assumed control of the Red Sox.

[notin]

Actually they are with Sandoval. And now compounded with Pedroia. With that money we might have signed a second baseman and a closer. It is a crap shoot to hire FA's for long and expensive contracts. The guys who get it right more often than not will put their teams in a winning position.

 

 

Exactly. And if they spent that money on a 2b and 1b, at some point those players are likely to become deadweight contracts as well. Pedroia, for example, was a very productive 2b on his contract for a long time...

[Maxbialystock]

So the Sox didn’t add HRam and Sandoval in2015?

 

Good thing, because they might still be feeling one of those deals today...

 

Let’s see if I have this right. The Sox go 86 years without a WS win despite spending a fair amount on good players. Then John Henry takes over, the Sox are very profitable, do spend a lot on players, and win 4 WS in 15 years. And this pisses you off?

[notin]

Let’s see if I have this right. The Sox go 86 years without a WS win despite spending a fair amount on good players. Then John Henry takes over, the Sox are very profitable, do spend a lot on players, and win 4 WS in 15 years. And this pisses you off?

 

 

No, long term free agent deals to players 30 and over piss me off. Is that difficult to grasp?

 

How many players like that were on the 2004 team?