A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Elktonnick]

Things can all change quickly.

 

Yankees can win the Division by 15 games but if they don't get to the world series their fans won't be happy. We all want the big prize.

 

Assuming we get everyone healthy, we can still get through each playoff series, one game, best of five, best of seven. We have a talented ball club when they are all playing well.

 

We just need to make sure we get one of the wild card spots.

 

Another thing this season has taught me is that I'd think long and hard about $300M contracts. I rather overpay on short term deals. Moreland, Pearce and Nunez were all good gambles. It they don't deliver, they're off the team next year. High end players end up getting all the leverage. He they play well, they opt out after two or three years. If they suck, the team is stuck with unproductive player makings zillions.

 

I think that DD and Henry are fairly confident that the Sox will nail down one of the wild card slots. I believe this is the reason that DD has not made a major move given the lux tax. I also think that the worst is over as far as their record. The Sox have 12 games this month against the Royals, Orioles, White Sox, and Jays.

Edited June 3, 2019 by Elktonnick

[TedWilliams101]

I think that DD and Henry are fairly confident that the Sox will nail down one of the wild card slots. I believe this is the reason that DD has not made a major move given the lux tax. I also think that the worst is over as far as their record. The Sox have 12 games this month against the Royals, Orioles, White Sox, and Jays.

 

Playing for a wildcard spot is a dumb gamble IMO. Baseball is too random to rely on 1 game. I hated that they changed the format, it should be 1 wildcard team or you play at least best of 3. IMO relying on the Wildcard might as well be a hail marry...

 

Id get it if they had a small payroll and knew it wouldnt make a difference, but when they already have a ton invested and every competitor improved over the offseason, even if they won the wildcard game, any team they face will be better than them... I dont see this team going anywhere. Everything, and I mean absolutely everything outside of Sale, went right last season. They shouldnt have expected another season where everyone improves, everyone is healthy, the bullpen magically becomes good, ...

Edited June 3, 2019 by TedWilliams101

[moonslav59]

Playing for a wildcard spot is a dumb gamble IMO. Baseball is too random to rely on 1 game. I hated that they changed the format, it should be 1 wildcard team or you play at least best of 3. IMO relying on the Wildcard might as well be a hail marry...

 

Id get it if they had a small payroll and knew it wouldnt make a difference, but when they already have a ton invested and every competitor improved over the offseason, even if they won the wildcard game, any team they face will be better than them... I dont see this team going anywhere. Everything, and I mean absolutely everything outside of Sale, went right last season. They shouldnt have expected another season where everyone improves, everyone is healthy, the bullpen magically becomes good, ...

 

The pen has already been magically good. It's our starters and untimely hitting that has been our downfall, so far.

 

That being said, we should trade for a RP'er ASAP.

 

Relying on magic is never a good idea.

[jacksonianmarch]

They changed the format because there was literally no impediment for a wild card team beyond loss of home field. Too many wild card teams were winning the pennant. They wanted to make your division worth something. My yanks have been in the WC game three times already, going 2-1.

[TedWilliams101]

They changed the format because there was literally no impediment for a wild card team beyond loss of home field. Too many wild card teams were winning the pennant. They wanted to make your division worth something. My yanks have been in the WC game three times already, going 2-1.

 

I disagree. How is it any different now after that 1 game playoff? It's not. The only difference is that instead of deciding the 1 wildcard team over who was the 4th best over 162, its now a coin flip with the 4th and 5th.

 

Yes, it makes it that much more important to win the division so you can avoid that coinflip (my point), but doesnt change anything with how far a WC team can go in the playoffs or the frequency they get to the series.

[S5Dewey]

The WC is nothing more than a MLB manufactured gimmick to keep fans involved in their team. And of course I know about the Sox record in the playoffs when going in as the Wild Card team. And I still think it's a gimmick.

 

What they should do is do away with the Central Division and have two divisions in each league, East & West. The top four teams in each division make the playoffs, 1 vs. 4 & 2 vs.3 in three game series. Then the winners play in a 5 game series, and the WS is best of 7.

 

Doing away with interleague games wouldn't break my heart either. It's just another MLB gimmick as well as giving some teams a distinct advantage in W/L records because it affects the strength of their schedule.

 

JMO!!

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree. How is it any different now after that 1 game playoff? It's not. The only difference is that instead of deciding the 1 wildcard team over who was the 4th best over 162, its now a coin flip with the 4th and 5th.

 

Yes, it makes it that much more important to win the division so you can avoid that coinflip (my point), but doesnt change anything with how far a WC team can go in the playoffs or the frequency they get to the series.

 

Agree 100%.

[Bellhorn04]

The WC is nothing more than a MLB manufactured gimmick to keep fans involved in their team. And of course I know about the Sox record in the playoffs when going in as the Wild Card team. And I still think it's a gimmick.

 

My thoughts exactly. I thought it was a gimmick from the get-go.

 

There shouldn't be a big reward for winning a bad division. Last year Cleveland would have won the Central with a .500 record. There will always be cases like that with 3 divisions.

[jad]

The WC is nothing more than a MLB manufactured gimmick to keep fans involved in their team. And of course I know about the Sox record in the playoffs when going in as the Wild Card team. And I still think it's a gimmick.

 

What they should do is do away with the Central Division and have two divisions in each league, East & West. The top four teams in each division make the playoffs, 1 vs. 4 & 2 vs.3 in three game series. Then the winners play in a 5 game series, and the WS is best of 7.

 

Doing away with interleague games wouldn't break my heart either. It's just another MLB gimmick as well as giving some teams a distinct advantage in W/L records because it affects the strength of their schedule.

 

JMO!!

 

It's not a 'gimmick' if it provides fans w/ interesting games. I would much rather see the Dodgers or the Cubs in here than another six games against Tampa Bay. Also, the wild card is one of the few things MLB finally got right. Even if you don't win the division, you have a puncher's chance of making the playoffs. That makes baseball more interesting for fans--isn't that the point? It's entertainment, not an exercise in perfect reason or justice.

[Slasher9]

The WC is nothing more than a MLB manufactured gimmick to keep fans involved in their team. And of course I know about the Sox record in the playoffs when going in as the Wild Card team. And I still think it's a gimmick.

 

What they should do is do away with the Central Division and have two divisions in each league, East & West. The top four teams in each division make the playoffs, 1 vs. 4 & 2 vs.3 in three game series. Then the winners play in a 5 game series, and the WS is best of 7.

 

Doing away with interleague games wouldn't break my heart either. It's just another MLB gimmick as well as giving some teams a distinct advantage in W/L records because it affects the strength of their schedule.

 

JMO!!

 

i love this. i would actually take it 1 step further and completely do away with divisions. balanced schedule 1 thru 15 in each league. top 6 in each make the postseason.

round 1 (3 game series)

3 v 6

4 v 5

 

round 2 (5 game series)

1 vs lowest remaining

2 vs highest remaining

 

round 3 (7 game series)

 

minimum 3 days off before the SUPERGAME.

 

SUPERGAME World Champion (1 game - winner take all - at neutral site) 5pm start on a Sunday.

AL Champ vs NL Champ

[notin]

They changed the format because there was literally no impediment for a wild card team beyond loss of home field. Too many wild card teams were winning the pennant. They wanted to make your division worth something. My yanks have been in the WC game three times already, going 2-1.

 

MLB avoided the NPB league’s gimmick in Japan of having the WC team start their first best of 5 series down 0-1, meaning the WC team has to win 3 games before losing 2...

[Elktonnick]

It's not a 'gimmick' if it provides fans w/ interesting games. I would much rather see the Dodgers or the Cubs in here than another six games against Tampa Bay. Also, the wild card is one of the few things MLB finally got right. Even if you don't win the division, you have a puncher's chance of making the playoffs. That makes baseball more interesting for fans--isn't that the point? It's entertainment, not an exercise in perfect reason or justice.

 

While all the ideas are excellent fodder for discussion, remember MLB is a business. Those who control it are the owners and the player's union. They will only make changes that suit their financial interests. In the player's case it is to have as many players make as much money as possible. In the owners case it is putting fannies in the seats and eyeballs on TV screens. It is unlikely that either party would agree to any major realignment unless it meets their interests. The obvious advantage to the current system is there are six division races and a balanced alignment. It is likely, however and even probable that realignment to a two division format in each league will happen once MLB expands to 32 teams. Until then it is doubtful.

 

When and if MLB expands to 32 teams there will be the major issue of total realignment along geographic lines. One would expect that there would be a great deal of pressure to have all of the California teams, Angels, Dodgers Padres As and Giants in the same division in the same league with the Mariners Dbacks and Rockies depending if Las Vegas gets an expansion team.

I'd love to see how fans in NewYork would react to the Mets and Yankees in the same division. That would be a hoot.

[moonslav59]

Making geographic divisions not only aids attendance and viewership for newer rivalries, it lessens the amount of games teams like the Astros play on the west coast, where late games lessen TV viewership.

 

If they do add two team, I suggest Las Vegas and North Caroline, I'd like to see something like this:

 

East: BOS, NYY, NYM, PHI, BAL WSH, TOR, PIT

North: CLE, CIN, DET, CWS, CC, MIL, MN, STL

South: NC, ATL, TBR, MIA, HOU, TEX, KC, COL

West: SEA, OAK, SF, LAD, LAA, SD, AZ, LV

 

Games vs non division: 3 A vs half and 3H vs other half (flip each year): 3 games x 24 teams=72 games

Games vs own division: 6 H + 6 A vs 7 teams= 84 games

+ 1 game vs 6 in own division= 6 games

 

Or

play 4 games vs other divisions (can be 2H-2A or alt 4 H-4A each year for east-west coast trips): 4 x 24= 96 games

play 5H + 5A vs own division: 10 x 7= 70

play 2 games vs 2 teams with same place previous yr.= 2 games

 

 

[mvp 78]

It would be a shame to have KC and STL in different divisions.

 

I know the CHC/STL rivalry is more important though.

[mvp 78]

Not sure it would be great to have COL in with ATL/MIA/TBR. That would be pretty brutal.

[Elktonnick]

Making geographic divisions not only aids attendance and viewership for newer rivalries, it lessens the amount of games teams like the Astros play on the west coast, where late games lessen TV viewership.

 

If they do add two team, I suggest Las Vegas and North Caroline, I'd like to see something like this:

 

East: BOS, NYY, NYM, PHI, BAL WSH, TOR, PIT

North: CLE, CIN, DET, CWS, CC, MIL, MN, STL

South: NC, ATL, TBR, MIA, HOU, TEX, KC, COL

West: SEA, OAK, SF, LAD, LAA, SD, AZ, LV

 

Games vs non division: 3 A vs half and 3H vs other half (flip each year): 3 games x 24 teams=72 games

Games vs own division: 6 H + 6 A vs 7 teams= 84 games

+ 1 game vs 6 in own division= 6 games

 

Or

play 4 games vs other divisions (can be 2H-2A or alt 4 H-4A each year for east-west coast trips): 4 x 24= 96 games

play 5H + 5A vs own division: 10 x 7= 70

play 2 games vs 2 teams with same place previous yr.= 2 games

 

 

 

Your idea is certainly worth considering. If and when there is expansion there will be a great debate around the historical AL and NL teams switching leagues. Moreover, I suspect there would also be a strong effort to return a team to Montreal either by moving the Rays (if no new stadium is built ) or with giving Montreal an expansion team . Giving LV an expansion team will also be hotly debated especially over the gambling issue.

[OH FOY]

Talent is so watered down now they should not keep adding teams. Too many bad teams in MLB.

[moonslav59]

Your idea is certainly worth considering. If and when there is expansion there will be a great debate around the historical AL and NL teams switching leagues. Moreover, I suspect there would also be a strong effort to return a team to Montreal either by moving the Rays (if no new stadium is built ) or with giving Montreal an expansion team . Giving LV an expansion team will also be hotly debated especially over the gambling issue.

 

One could swap Pitt to the North (or add Montreal and not NC), NC to the East and STL to the South to pair with KC.

[mvp 78]

Talent is so watered down now they should not keep adding teams. Too many bad teams in MLB.

 

I don't believe this theory. Players are better now than they were 30 years ago. AAA games are just as fun to watch and the talent level there is far less. Most fans wouldn't be able to tell the difference if the PAWSOX dressed as the BOSOX and SWB dressed as NYY for a game (in terms of presentation on the field, not in terms of facial recognition).

[moonslav59]

Talent is so watered down now they should not keep adding teams. Too many bad teams in MLB.

 

I'd rather see us get rid of 2 teams. Move OAK to NC and and disband MIA & maybe BAL.

 

North

BOS, NYY, NYM, PHI, WAS, TOR, PIT

South

NC, ATL, TB, HOU, TX, STL, KC

North

DET, CLE, CIN, CWS, CC, MIL, MN

West

SEA, SF, LAA, LAD, SD, AZ, COL

 

4 games vs 21 teams from other divisions: 84 games

13 games vs 6 teams in own division: 78 games

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Giving LV an expansion team will also be hotly debated especially over the gambling issue.

 

Pro sports is in bed with gambling as it is, so that shouldn't be a problem.

[Michigan adam]

Making geographic divisions not only aids attendance and viewership for newer rivalries, it lessens the amount of games teams like the Astros play on the west coast, where late games lessen TV viewership.

 

If they do add two team, I suggest Las Vegas and North Caroline, I'd like to see something like this:

 

East: BOS, NYY, NYM, PHI, BAL WSH, TOR, PIT

North: CLE, CIN, DET, CWS, CC, MIL, MN, STL

South: NC, ATL, TBR, MIA, HOU, TEX, KC, COL

West: SEA, OAK, SF, LAD, LAA, SD, AZ, LV

 

Games vs non division: 3 A vs half and 3H vs other half (flip each year): 3 games x 24 teams=72 games

Games vs own division: 6 H + 6 A vs 7 teams= 84 games

+ 1 game vs 6 in own division= 6 games

 

Or

play 4 games vs other divisions (can be 2H-2A or alt 4 H-4A each year for east-west coast trips): 4 x 24= 96 games

play 5H + 5A vs own division: 10 x 7= 70

play 2 games vs 2 teams with same place previous yr.= 2 games

 

 

 

Move NC to East, Tor to North, and STL to south with KC. Now virtually all of the regional rivals match up.

[notin]

Pro sports is in bed with gambling as it is, so that shouldn't be a problem.

 

Las Vegas gets a football team in 2020.

 

And then there is the Maloof brothers - owners of Vegas casinos who used to own the Sacramento Kings (although they did not allow betting on NBA games in their casinos)...

[Elktonnick]

Pro sports is in bed with gambling as it is, so that shouldn't be a problem.

 

Maybe but I have already heard the objections when they talked about the A's moving there. In any case if MLB decides to expand their at least 5 cities in addition to LV who would make strong bids, Charlotte, San Antonio Montreal Portland and possibly Indianapolis.

[Slasher9]

in a couple years in order to minimize carbon footprint east coast teams will no longer be playing west coast teams. nobody will cross the mississippi river for a game outside of postseason.

[notin]

in a couple years in order to minimize carbon footprint east coast teams will no longer be playing west coast teams. nobody will cross the mississippi river for a game outside of postseason.

 

And when they do, they’ll do it on horseback...

[Kimmi]

He can't help it. He's a Yankees fan and it's inbred.

 

He reminds of of a bumper sticker I once saw: "I don't dislike like the Yankees. It's their obnoxious fans that I hate".

 

But I will admit that there have been a few Yankees players I developed an intense dislike for without even meeting them. To paraprhase Mr. Subliminal "One of them is still playingBrettGardner". You figure out who.

 

LOL There are many Yankees players that I have an intense dislike for. Most of them, actually. Gardner and Voit currently top the list.

[Kimmi]

We got guys getting 2-3 hits almosr every game, but they are always spread out, never bunched together, and never when we need them most.

 

I don't blame the line-up, because there's no rhyme or reason to who will hit well, and who won't.

 

Let's compare 2017 OPS to 2019:

 

2019 Player 2017 (+ or -)

.896 Devers .819 (+.077)

.890 JD M n/a (Young .709)

.888 Bogey .746 (+.142)

.875 Betts .803 (+.072)

.870 Moreland .769 (+.101)

.853 Chavis n/a (Pedey .760)

.834 Vaz .735 (+.099)

.773 Beni .776 (-.003)

.612 JBJ .726 (-.112)

.585 Leon .644 (-.059)

.493 Nunez .892 (-.399)

.404 Holt .548 (-.144)

 

I keep hearing we are regressing to our norm, but if 2017 was "the norm", most key players are doing better than 2017- a year we won the division.

 

It's timely hitting and our pitchers, and not just the pen, that has kept us down.

 

Our starters improved over the first 2-3 weeks, but they are still far away from where they were last year or 2017.

 

 

 

I do not think 2017 was the norm. However, it would be tough for both Betts and JD to repeat their 2018 seasons. Regression from 2018 is not surprising, but not to the 2017 level.

 

As I said, the overall numbers don't look bad.

[Kimmi]

Maybe we need to cut the Yankee fan some slack. They haven’t won a title in 10 years. As Red Sox fans, we’ve only had one drought that long in team history...

 

Ha. Fair point.

 

I like Jacko. He knows that. But my goodness, he can get carried away when the Yankees are playing well.

[Bellhorn04]

I like Jacko. He knows that. But my goodness, he can get carried away when the Yankees are playing well.

 

That's when he starts lecturing us about the respective states of our franchises.