A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[MADSTORK]

You boys need to worry about the relief pitching instead of Betts and Betts

 

Cash strapped once again is a beautiful position to be in.

 

Kimbrel would look good in the 9th right now

[Bellhorn04]

You boys need to worry about the relief pitching instead of Betts and Betts

 

Cash strapped once again is a beautiful position to be in.

 

Kimbrel would look good in the 9th right now

 

Betts and Betts, huh? You are one sharp customer.

[Slasher9]

 

Kimbrel would look good in the 9th right now

 

because none of the other 29 teams have blown any 9th inning save opportunities. i wonder why those other 29 teams havent given Kimbrel a uniform???

[notin]

because none of the other 29 teams have blown any 9th inning save opportunities. i wonder why those other 29 teams havent given Kimbrel a uniform???

 

$$$$$$

 

And Kimbrel’s demands aren’t likely to go down much as the draft approaches...

[OH FOY]

This is Sportstrac, and where we stand in Payroll. Don't know how accurate it is just a Reference.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

[mvp 78]

This is Sportstrac, and where we stand in Payroll. Don't know how accurate it is just a Reference.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

 

I didn't realize Manny Ramirez had deferred salary.

[moonslav59]

This is Sportstrac, and where we stand in Payroll. Don't know how accurate it is just a Reference.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

 

I don't think it portrays the luxury tax numbers- just straight salaries.

 

It has us $14M+ under the $40M tax line, but I think we are about $4-6M under the luxury tax calculation $40M over line.

[mvp 78]

@SoxProspects

Following Following @SoxProspects

More

#RedSox announce several moves, including first MLB promotion for LHP Josh Taylor, recall of RHP Colten Brewer, option of RHP Travis Lakins to Pawtucket, and placement of 1B Mitch Moreland on the 10-day IL.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think it portrays the luxury tax numbers- just straight salaries.

 

It has us $14M+ under the $40M tax line, but I think we are about $4-6M under the luxury tax calculation $40M over line.

 

I read an article in ST saying the Sox has about $4 mil of room

[Bellhorn04]

Cot's has our tax payroll at 239.2 mill, which is just 6.8 mill under the top threshold.

[moonslav59]

Cot's has our tax payroll at 239.2 mill, which is just 6.8 mill under the top threshold.

 

$6.8M can be a lot at the deadline, since we will only owe about 1/3 of the 2019 salary of anyone we pick up. If we trade for someone now, we will owe about 2/3.

 

I'm not sure how long we can wait.

[kenmeister]

As the calendar nearly turns to the month of June, this edition of the Red Sox feels like a .500 team. I don't see them as a serious contender this year. I don't think the "blame" lies at any one player's feet, but except for a couple of players like Workman and Devers, just about everyone is playing a bit worse than last year.

[moonslav59]

As the calendar nearly turns to the month of June, this edition of the Red Sox feels like a .500 team. I don't see them as a serious contender this year. I don't think the "blame" lies at any one player's feet, but except for a couple of players like Workman and Devers, just about everyone is playing a bit worse than last year.

 

I'd bet we win 60+% of our games from now to the end, and I'm not a bettor.

 

[harmony]

I'd bet we win 60+% of our games from now to the end, and I'm not a bettor.

 

For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight projects the Red Sox at 61-46 (.570) the rest of the season while FanGraphs has the Sox at 63-44 (.585):

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight projects the Red Sox at 61-46 (.570) the rest of the season while FanGraphs has the Sox at 63-44 (.585):

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

That's about what I'd expect the experts to say, but even those numbers are far better than .500.

[harmony]

That's about what I'd expect the experts to say, but even those numbers are far better than .500.

The Red Sox have had a relatively easy schedule to date:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

 

... but must face the Yankees and Rays a combined 29 games the rest of the season, including 13 straight in late July and early August:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

[jacksonianmarch]

The Red Sox have had a relatively easy schedule to date:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

 

... but must face the Yankees and Rays a combined 29 games the rest of the season, including 13 straight in late July and early August:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

 

And by then, we should have our actual team back

[moonslav59]

The Red Sox have had a relatively easy schedule to date:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

 

... but must face the Yankees and Rays a combined 29 games the rest of the season, including 13 straight in late July and early August:

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2019-schedule-scores.shtml

 

I'm glad we face the guy we need to pass. They don't scare me.

[oldtimer]

Red Sox pitching and especially the pen, seems to be breaking down. Two big losses in a row to Cleveland when we need to go on a run. We are scoring and that is not the problem.

[harmony]

Red Sox pitching and especially the pen, seems to be breaking down. Two big losses in a row to Cleveland when we need to go on a run. We are scoring and that is not the problem.

The Red Sox remain a half game up on the Cleveland Guardians (but tied in the loss column) and tied overall with the Oakland Athletics.

 

It should be an interesting race to the postseason.

[MADSTORK]

because none of the other 29 teams have blown any 9th inning save opportunities. i wonder why those other 29 teams havent given Kimbrel a uniform???

 

Correct me if I’m wrong but Kimbrel has draft pick compensation attached if signed before the Draft in June

 

Thank Cherington and friends for the luxury tax

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm glad we face the guy we need to pass. They don't scare me.

 

You guys are pretty lucky that we will have an opener/pen game in the series. CC returning Sunday means Tanaka gets pushed back and out of the series. Instead of lining up Paxton for the Sox, Boone took the “a game is a game” approach and blew out the Padres. The Sox decided to line Sale up with the Yanks and in the process blew a game against Cleveland

[bkzwhitestrican]

We'll see how many of these four games actually get played. There's supposed to be thunderstorms all night and the forecast also calls for thunderstorms most of the weekend #buildmoredomes

[Station 13]

As the calendar nearly turns to the month of June, this edition of the Red Sox feels like a .500 team. I don't see them as a serious contender this year. I don't think the "blame" lies at any one player's feet, but except for a couple of players like Workman and Devers, just about everyone is playing a bit worse than last year.

 

Worse than last year is expected. Nobody else plays like that for consecutive years. JDM and Betts had combined for perhaps the greatest pair of hitters this 2000s generation had seen. Repeat were one in a thousand.

 

We've spent about $10M total for that pen. It's exactly what we're getting in return now.

[Station 13]

Red Sox pitching and especially the pen, seems to be breaking down. Two big losses in a row to Cleveland when we need to go on a run. We are scoring and that is not the problem.

 

Red Sox pitching breaking down? You watch Sale, Price and Porcello as of late?

[Bellhorn04]

Worse than last year is expected. Nobody else plays like that for consecutive years. JDM and Betts had combined for perhaps the greatest pair of hitters this 2000s generation had seen. Repeat were one in a thousand.

 

We've spent about $10M total for that pen. It's exactly what we're getting in return now.

 

All truth, Station.

[moonslav59]

You guys are pretty lucky that we will have an opener/pen game in the series. CC returning Sunday means Tanaka gets pushed back and out of the series. Instead of lining up Paxton for the Sox, Boone took the “a game is a game” approach and blew out the Padres. The Sox decided to line Sale up with the Yanks and in the process blew a game against Cleveland

 

Well, you're lucky Eovaldi, our MVP 2Bman and our HR leader are on the IL.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS leaders

 

Last 14 Days

1.082 Bogey

1.019 JBJ

.994 Devers

.974 Pearce

.850 Betts

.841 Vaz

.767 Moreland

.747 JD

.689 Chavis

.679 Beni

.583 Holt (12 PAs)

.576 Leon

.524 Nunez

 

Last 28 Days

1.039 Devers

.987 Bogey

.965 Vaz

.957 Moreland

.934 JD

.850 JBJ

.834 Betts

.826 Chavis

.761 Beni

.676 Pearce

.653 Leon

.611 Nunez

.583 Holt (12 PAs)

 

Last 365 Days (502+ PAs unless noted)

.990 JD

.967 Betts

.899 Bogey

.871 Chavis (154 PAs)

.811 Lin (59)

.807 Devers

.789 Beni

.750 Pearce (263)

.744 Vaz (283)

.725 JBJ

.722 Moreland (496)

.709 Holt (315)

.662 Nunez (402)

.516 Leon (274)

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by moonslav59

[YastrzemskI]

Most of the members on this board may have unrealistic expectations pertaining to just how strong a BP has to be.. me included. Yet how can a team expect to win post season games without at least a good/very good pen? Is it irrational to expect a few dominant arms out of the pen these days? Either way, the Red Sox do not have a top ten pen, far from it. And it’s a glaring issue at the moment.

[moonslav59]

Most of the members on this board may have unrealistic expectations pertaining to just how strong a BP has to be.. me included. Yet how can a team expect to win post season games without at least a good/very good pen? Is it irrational to expect a few dominant arms out of the pen these days? Either way, the Red Sox do not have a top ten pen, far from it. And it’s a glaring issue at the moment.

 

We won last year with basically the same pen, but with a very shaky Kimbrel.

 

We will likely have Eovaldi in the pen again this fall plus a summer acquisition or two.

 

(Note: I do think we need to improve our pen to have a good shot at winning it all.)